Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

정신분열병에 대한 리스페리돈의 효과 및 안정성

이민수,김용구,김영훈,연병길,오병훈,윤도준,윤진상,이철,정희연,강병조,김광수,김동언,김명정,김상훈,김희철,나철,노승호,민경준,박기창,박두병,백기청,백인호,손봉기,손진욱,양병환,양창국,우행원,이정호,이종범,이홍식,임기영,전태연,정영조,정영철,정인과,정인원,지익성,채정호,한상익,한선호,한진희,서광윤 大韓神經精神醫學會 1998 신경정신의학 Vol.37 No.1

연구목적 : 본 시험의 목적은 임상시험 시작전에 연구자들을 대상으로 PANSS Workshop을 통하여 PANSS, ESRS에 대한 국내에서의 표준화 작업을 구축하고 새로운 정신병 치료제인 리스페리돈의 효과와 안정성을 재확인하여 리스페리돈 사용에 대한 적정화를 이루는데 있다. 연구방법 : 1996년 4월부터 1996년 9월까지 국내 39개 대학병원 정신과에 입원중인 혹은 증상이 악화되어 입원하는 정신분열병 환자 377명을 대상으로 다시설 개방 연구를 시행하였다. 1주일간의 약물 배설기간을 가진후, 리스페리돈을 8주간 투여하였고, 기준점, 1주, 2주, 4주, 그리고 8주후에 평가되었다. 용량은 제1일에는 리스페리돈 1mg씩 1일 2회, 제2일에는 2mg씩 1일 2회, 제3∼7일에는 3mg씩 1일 2회 투여하였다. 이후 환자의 임상상태에 따라 임의로 증량할 수 있으며, 최대 일일 16mg을 초과하지 않도록 하였다. 추체외로 증상을 조절하기 위한 투약을 허용하였다. 임상증상 및 부작용의 평가는 PANSS(Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale), CGI(Clinical Global Impression) 그리고 ESRS(Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale)을 사용하였다. 연구결과 : 377명중 343명(91%)이 8주간의 연구를 완결하였다. 치료 종결시점인 8주후 PANSS 총점수가 20% 이상 호전된 경우를 약물 반응군으로 정의할때, 약물반응군은 81.3%였다. 리스페리돈에 반응하는 예측인자로는 발병연령, 이전의 입원 횟수, 유병기간이 관련 있었다. 리스페리돈은 1주후부터 PANSS양성, 음성, 및 일반정신병리 점수상에 유의한 호전을 보여 효과가 빨랐다. CGI의 경우도 기준점에 비해 1주후부터 유의한 감소를 나타내었다. ESRS의 경우, 파킨슨 평가점수는 기준점과 비교해 투여 1주, 2주, 4주후 유의하게 증가되었다가 8주후 기준점과 차이가 없었다. Dystonia 평가점수는 1주후만 유의한 증가를 보였으며, dyskinesia 평가점수는 유의한 차이가 없었다. 혈압, 맥박수의 생명징후 및 일반 혈액학 검사, 생화학적 검사, 심전도 검사에서 유의한 변화는 없었다. 결 론 : 이상의 다시설 개방 임상 연구를 통해 리스페리돈은 정신분열병 환자에서 양성증상뿐만 아니라 음성증상 및 전반적인 증상에도 효과적인 것으로 사료된다. 보다 명확한 평가를 위해서는 다른 항정신병약물과의 이중맹검 연구가 필요할 것으로 생각되며, 또한 장기적 치료에 대한 평가도 함께 이루어져야 하겠다. Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of risperidone in the treatment of Korean schizophrenic patients. Method : This multicenter open study included 377 schizophrenic patients drawn from 39 university hospitals. After a wash-out period of 1 week, the schizophrenic patients were treated with risperidone for 8 weeks and evaluated at 5 points ; at baseline, and 1, 2, 4 and 8 weeks of treatment. The dose was increased from 2mg/day(1mg twice daily) to 6mg/day(3mg twice daily) during the first week and adjusted to a maximum of 16mg/day over the next 7 weeks according to the patient's clinical response. Medication to control extrapyramidal symptoms was permitted. The psychiatric and neurological status of the patients was assessed by PANSS, CGI, and ESRS scales. Results : 343(91%) of 377 patients completed the 8-week trial period. Clinical improvement, as defined by a 20% or more reduction in total PANSS score at end point, was shown by 81.3% of patients. The predictors of response to risperidone were associated older age, shorter duration of illness, fewer previous hospitalization. Risperidone had rapid onset of action ; a significant decrease of the total PANSS and three PANSS factor(positive, negative, general), and CGI was already noticed at the end of first week. For the ESRS, parkinsonism rating scores were significantly increased until week 4 comparing with baseline. Dystonia rating scores were significantly increased until week 1, and dyskinesia rating scores were not significantly changed during the study. Laboratory parameters including vital sign, EKG, hematological, and biochemical values showed no significant changes during the trial. Conclusions : This study suggests that risperidone is generally safe and effective against both the positive and negative symptoms in our group of patients.

의료정책에 따른 종합병원의 로비공간 변화

한광호,함욱,박창근,이낙운 江原大學校 産業技術硏究所 2004 産業技術硏究 Vol.24 No.B

The purpose of this study are observing changing direction of lobby space that happen by change of medical environment investigating lobby space of General Hospital by our country's medical policy change time and supply pabulum that need in forward Hospital Architecture planning. Results of this study are as follows ; Since Whole National Insurance enforcement from 1993 to 1995, form of general hospital lobby is form that outpatient entrance and inpatient entrance are detached. And lobby function divided to waiting space for medication, requisition space and also that is appearing being detached with rest space for user. ntil 1999 since 1996 that is since Medical Treatment Information System construction, the biggest characteristic of General Hospital lobby form is making Hospital Street itself do improving efficiency of flow planning being included in lobby

Wechsler 記憶檢査(改訂版)의 妥當度 硏究

韓五洙,柳希姃,金晟倫,金昌潤,李楨敎,李哲,朴仁鎬 서울醫大 1997 精神醫學 Vol.22 No.1

Impact of urban warming on earlier spring flowering in Korea

Jeong, Jee‐,Hoon,Ho, Chang‐,Hoi,Linderholm, Hans W.,Jeong, Su‐,Jong,Chen, Deliang,Choi, Yong‐,Sang John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2011 International journal of climatology Vol.31 No.10

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>Using long‐term (1954–2004) observations of four selected species in South Korea: goldenbell (<I>Forsythia koreana</I>), azalea (<I>Rhododendron mucronulatum</I>), cherry (<I>Prunus yedoensis</I>), and peach (<I>Prunus persica</I>), the impact of urban warming on spring flowering was investigated. Trends of early spring temperatures and first‐flowering dates (FFDs) of the four plants were cross‐compared among nine differently urbanized cities. It was clearly observed that urban warming has led to an advance in the timing of first‐flowering of several days to weeks during recent decades, while the intrinsic physiology of plants to sense thermal energy has not been changed. The degree of advancement of the FFD was observed to be roughly proportional to degree of urbanization. Moreover, the sensitivity of the FFD to urban warming was estimated to be higher for the shrub species (−9.07 and −6.64 days °C<SUP>−1</SUP> for goldenbell and azalea, respectively) than the tree species (−2.46 and −2.90 days °C<SUP>−1</SUP> for peach and cherry, respectively). Our results suggest that the impact of urban warming should be considered as an influential factor which drives changes in the regional natural environment, especially in regions of rapid urbanization. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society</P>

혈액투석 환자의 가성 고칼륨혈증

최창렬,조형도,강태영,이준수,한호,정청일,이동규,유준호,한상웅,김호중 대한신장학회 2001 대한신장학회잡지 Vol.20 No.5

출산에 따른 그레이브스병의 재발 및 관련이자

임창훈,최현아,한승석,김해성,이창욱,정호연,한기옥,장학철,박원근,윤현구,한인권 대한내분비학회 2002 Endocrinology and metabolism Vol.17 No.2

Background: Pregnancy affects the course of Graves' Disease (GD), and patients who initially maintain euthyroid function into their middle trimester with minimum doses of antithyroid drugs become exacerbated after delivery. Even patients who are completely cured, requiring no treatment during pregnancy, can relapse after delivery. In this study, we examined the postpartum changes in the thyroid functions of patients with GD, and attempted to determine the factors contributing to these changes. Methods: The study subjects were recruited from pregnant women visiting our outpatient clinic for routine prenatal evaluations. 45 women previously diagnosed with GD, who had been treated and cured with hyperthyroidism, and were no longer taking any thyroid medications, were evaluated for 1 year post delivery. Results: Among 45 patients, 20 (44.4%) developed thyroid disorders following delivery. Postpartum thyroiditis (PPT) developed in 8 patients (17.8%), and GD developed in 12 (26.0%). The onset of the PPT disease 3.1 ± 1.4 months following delivery, which was significantly earlier than the 6.7 ± 2.7 months required for the post delivery onset of GD (p=0.003). The TBII values, measured during the thyrotoxic state in each womaen, were negative in women with PPT and positive in 71.4% of women with GD (p=0.030). The duration of treatment for hyperthyroidism prior or pregnancy, the number of recurrences, and the time interval without treatment, were not associated with the development of postpartum thyroid disorders. Whereas, the mean number of past pregnancies for women who developed PPT was 3.9 ± 2.1, and was significantly higher than the 2.2 ± 1.7 for women developing no thyroid dysfunctions (p=0.044). In 13 women their initial onset of GD occurred within one year postpartum, 7 (53.8%) having had a recurrence, which was significantly higher than in women whose disease onset occurred unrelated to delivery (5 of 32 women: 15.6%). Conclusion: Women with GD developed postpartum thyroid dysfunctions in 44.4% of cases. Women whose initial disease onset occurred within one year postpartum had higher recurrences of GD, and women who developed PPT had a history of higher gravidity compared to the euthyroid women postpartum. Therefore, if women with GD develop postpartum thyroid dysfunctions, the diagnosis should be made, and a treatment modality planned, following careful considerations of the patients' past obstetric history, changes in clinical manifestations and the TBII values

Finding key vulnerable areas by a climate change vulnerability assessment

Kim, Ho Gul,Lee, Dong Kun,Jung, Huicheul,Kil, Sung-Ho,Park, Jin Han,Park, Chan,Tanaka, Riwako,Seo, Changwan,Kim, Ho,Kong, Wooseok,Oh, Kyusik,Choi, Jinyong,Oh, Young-Ju,Hwang, Gangseok,Song, Chang-Keun Springer Netherlands 2016 Natural hazards Vol.81 No.3

<P>Extreme climate events such as typhoons, heat waves, and floods have increased in frequency with climate change. Many municipalities within the Republic of Korea (ROK) have experienced damage from these events, necessitating countermeasures. Vulnerability assessment has been suggested in the implementation of a national plan for reducing damage resulting from climate change. Thus, in this study, we assess the vulnerability of the ROK and identify key vulnerable municipalities in support of the national adaptation plan. We create a framework for assessing the vulnerability of all 232 municipalities of the ROK with respect to 32 items in 7 fields. The framework regards decision makers' comprehension and availability of data as important factors. We assess the vulnerability index of each municipality by using variables of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity. The weights of variables are determined by the Delphi method. We used the representative concentration pathways 8.5 climate scenario to reflect future climate exposure for the vulnerability assessment. From the analysis, vulnerability maps are prepared for the 32 items of 7 fields, and key vulnerable municipalities are identified by aggregating the maps. The distribution of vulnerable municipalities changes with the future climate conditions. These maps provide a scientific and objective basis for the ROK government to establish adaptation plans and allocate resources. The ROK government can utilize the results to identify the characteristics of highly vulnerable areas, and municipalities can use the results as a basis for requesting support from the national government.</P>

1990년대 간경변증의 원인, 합병증, 사망원인의 변화에 관한 고찰

김병호,김경진,김효종,장린,이정일,동석호,이동근,한요셉,장영운,백일현 대한간학회 2000 Clinical and Molecular Hepatology(대한간학회지) Vol.6 No.3

$quot;목적: 우리나라에서 간경변증의 가장 중요한 원인은 B형 간염이지만 최근 C형 간염에 의한 경우가 늘고 있으며, 알코올성 간경변증은 드문 것으로 알려져 있으나 음주 인구 및 음주량의 증가로 빈도가 증가되었을 것으로 추측된다. 또한 진단 기술의 발달, 정맥류 출혈 치료의 발전, 간세포암의 조기진단 및 치료법의 발달로 간경변의 진단 시기 및 사망원인 등에도 변화가 있을 것으로 생각된다. 이에 연자 등은 C형 간염 진단이 가능하게 된 1991년 이후의 환자를 대상으로 간경변증의 원인, 진단 시기, 합병증 및 사망원인의 변화 등을 조사하여 비교, 분석하였다. 대상과 방법: 1991년부터 1998년까지 경희대학교 병원에 입원하여 간경변증으로 진단된 1157명의 환자를 대상으로 원인, 합병증의 발생빈도, 사망원인에 대하여 병력기록을 후향적으로 분석하였으며, 이들 결과를 전ㆍ후반기로 나누어 비교하였다. 결과: 간경변증 환자 1157명 중 남자가 848명(73.3%)으로 많았으며, 전ㆍ후반기의 차이는 없었다. 환자의 연령은 전반기 51.4±11.1세, 후반기 51.2±11.2세로 차이가 없었으며, B형 간염이나 알코올에 의한 경우도 유사한 양상이었다. 그러나 C형 간염에 의한 경우는 약 10세 높은 연령), 알코올(12.7%, 20.0%), C형 간염(8.5%, 17.5%) 순으로 후반기에 알코올이나 C형 간염에 의한 경우가 증가하였으나 통계학적 차이는 없었다. 사망환자 249명의 원인 분석에서 전ㆍ후반기 모두 간부전(38.7%, 40.2%)이 가장 많았고, 그 이외 전반기는 정맥류 출혈(20.0%), 간암(18.7%), 간신증후군 순(11.3%)이었고 후반기는 간신증후군(19.2%), 정맥류 출혈(16.2%), 간암(11.2%) 순으로 간신증후군은 증가하고 정맥류출혈은 감소하는 경향이었으나 통계학적 차이는 없었다. 결론: 1990년대 간경변증의 원인은 과거와 마찬가지로 B형 바이러스 감염이 가장 많았지만, 알코올성 간경변증의 빈도가 약 30%로 과거에 비하여 증가한 것으로 생각되었다. C형 간염바이러스 감염에 의한 경우는 빈도의 변화 없이 약 10세 높은 연령에서 진단되었다. 간경변증의 진단은 점차 간경변 초기에 진단되는 경우가 증가하였다. 간경변증의 사망원인 중 정맥류 출혈은 점차 감소한 반면 간경변증 말기에 나타나는 간신증후군에 의한 경우가 증가하는 경향을 보였다$quot;. $quot;Background: Alcoholic liver disease has increased. The causes of death in liver cirrhosis have changed. The author tried to categorize the etiology and complications of liver cirrhosis and analyze the causes of death in the 1990s. Method: The author retrospectively reviewed medical records of 1,175 patients diagnosed as having liver cirrhosis at Kyung Hee University Hospital from January 1991 through December 1998. The etiology, complications and the cause of death were compared between the early (1991-1994) and the late (1995-1998) periods. Results: The proportion of male patients (73.3%) was still about 3 times that of female patients. There was no difference in age at the time of diagnosis between early and late periods (51.4 11.1 and 51.2 11.2 years respectively). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was still the most common cause of liver cirrhosis (57.0%) and alcohol was the next (31.1%). The complications of liver cirrhosis at the time of diagnosis were, in order: esophageal varices, ascites, and variceal bleeding. But there was no significant difference between the periods. The proportion of Child grade B was the most common at the time of diagnosis in both periods, but Child grade A increased in the late period. The most common cause of death was liver failure and the next cause was variceal bleeding in the early period. Hepatorenal syndrome was the second most common cause in the late period. Conclusion: There was no change in the etiology between early and late periods. HBV infection was still the most common etiology but the incidence of alcoholic liver cirrhosis might have increased in the 1990s. The proportion of the Child B at initial diagnosis was the highest (around 50%) but that of Child A increased in the late period. Among the causes of death, liver failure and hepatorenal syndrome had a tendency to increase in the late period$quot;.