논문 : 국내 시중은행의 원/달러 환율 예측력 분석

형남원 ( Nam Won Hyung ),전형철 ( Hyun Chol Jeon ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2010 금융지식연구 Vol.8 No.3

국내의 일부 은행은 매일 오전 외환시장의 동향에 대한 정보를 제공하면서 환율의 금일변동의 예상범위를 제시하고 있다. 본고에서는 그 중 한 일반은행을 택하여 금일예상범위에서 제시된 일별 원/달러 환율의 예측치의 예측력을 분석하고, 시계열모형을 통한 예측력의 개선방안에 대해 연구하였다. 이 은행에서 제시하는 환율예측치를 벤치마크로 삼아 ARMA모형, GARCH모형, 지수평활화, 임의보행모형 등의 시계열모형의 예측치와 비교·분석하였다. 리먼 브라더스의 파산으로 촉발된 2008년 하반기의 국제금융의 위기로 인한 환율의 급격한 변동을 반영한 분석도 시도하였다. 예측의 편의성(biasness)을 검정하기 위한 MFE 통계량, 예측력의 우월성을 비교하는 RMSFE 통계량, 예측력의 통계적 차이를 검정하기위해 Diebold and Mariano 검정방법, 환율변동 방향에 대한 예측력을 검정하기 위해 DOC기준을 각각 사용하였다. 분석 결과 이 은행의 예측치가 다른 시계열 예측치보다 우수한 예측력을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 국제금융위기로 변동성이 심해진 기간을 감안한 분석의 결과도 비슷하게 나타났다. 이 은행의 예측치와 시계열 모형 예측치를 반영하는 결합예측치를 만드는 경우 은행의 예측치가 가지는 편의성이 대폭 개선되는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 예측력도 제한적인 범위에서 개선이 있는 경우도 나타났다. 특히 변동방향의 예측에서 상당한 정도의 개선이 있는 것으로 나타났다. This study investigates the performance of a major commercial bank in Korea in terms of forecasting daily exchange rates. The paper suggests several alternative forecasting methods based on time series models, including ARMA, GARCH, GARCH with a structural break, exponential smoothing, the random walk model. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the bank`s forecasting method was compared with that of the alternative forecasting methods by using the root mean squared forecast error (RMSFE) and the direction of change (DOC). The results indicate that the bank`s forecasting method has a clear advantage over the alternative methods. However, the bank`s forecasting method offers no advantage in terms of the mean forecast error (MFE). The forecasting methods were then combined to improve forecasting performance. The results do not provide evidence of such an improvement in terms of the MSFE but indicate a significant reduction in forecast bias and an increase in forecasting performance in terms of the DOC.

Ventriculosubgaleal shunt의 임상적 경험

남궁원철,박상근,김태홍,신형식,황용순,김상진 인제대학교 백병원 2002 仁濟醫學 Vol.23 No.2

Object : Ventriculosubgaleal(VSG) shunt is considered to be useful and safe ventricluar diversion method for the patient for whom ventriculoperitoneal(VP) shunt cannot be carried out because of significant particulate debirs within the CSF, recent surgeries, or infections that were considered substantial enough to impair shunt function or to increase the risk of infection. To clarify the efficacy of VSG shunt for temporary ventricular decompression we analyzed our clinical trial cases. Patients and Methods : VSG shunt was carried out in 8 patient with acute hydrocephalus between February 2000 and June 2000. The causes of acute hydrocephalus were as follows: spontaneous intracerebral hemorrahage and intraventricular hemorrhage in four patients, spontaheous subarachnoid hemorrahge in three patients, tuberculous meningitis in one patient. With these 8 cases we compared pre-operative and post-operative clinical conditions and ventricular size in the brain CT scan. Results : Even though the ventricular size was not changed statistically there was significant clinical improvement between preoperative Glasgow coma scale(GCS)(7.25) and postoperative GCS(9.25). Six patients died as a result of causes unrelated to the VSG shunt. There were no VSG shunt infection. A permanent ventriculoperitoneal shunt surgery was needed in two patients. Conclusion : The VSG shunt is a simple and safe method of treatment for acute hydrocephalus instead of extraventricular drainage in the patients who cannot be underwent a permanent shunt immediately due to some reasons. Even though VSG shunt were free from infection, our preliminary clinical trials suggests that its efficacy seems to be doubtful. Further studies with lots of cases would be needed for its clinical application.

한국 산업공예의 인식도 조사

추원교,남미경,이형규 한국공예학회 2000 조형디자인연구 Vol.3 No.2

This study surveyes the degree of recognition of industrial crafts in Korea. The period of time for this survey was from October 10, 1998 to November 15, 1998. The 234 people over than twenty-year-olds working men and women, including students, bussinessmen, teachers and customers answered Q & A paper. The survey investigated 50 questions. The questions are put under the titles of: ① general, ② the design of industrial crafts in Korea, ③ the quality of industrial crafts in Korea, ④ the price of industrial crafts in Korea, ⑤ the information activity about industrial crafts in Korea, ⑥ the distribution process of industrial crafts in Korea, ⑦ the process of the manufacture of industrial crafts in Korea, ⑧ the recognition of the differences between the industrial products and craft arts in Korea, ⑨ the comparison with foreign countries' craft arts, ⑩ the perspective of industrial crafts in Korea. The study reviews the developmental process of industrial craft paradigm with emphasis on systems of market, advertisement, and database of craft design in Korea. This paper concludes by discussing the future role of Korean artistic crafts with cultural identity designed and marketed by the organizations of artists, industries, and government. It seeks to demonstrate that the government, the educational system, artists, and society need to cooperate closely to promote the future craft art in Korea. The producing creative functional art would be the only way to survive and enhance economic well-beings of their country or company from now on. Competitiveness of each country and company would ask more originality and creativity in design than before. After the new Korean government has decided to promote the knowledge and cultural industries for the 21C, industrial craft art businesses have begun to attract attention from Korean society. But each areas do not know how to cooperate one another. This paper suggests that it is urgent to find a way in which all cooperation of Korean craft areas focuses and processes the long term of developmental cycle. Under the plan of long term developing cycle with cooperation, support system by government, and new cultivating design will contribute to developing the industrial craft art in Korea.

백서에서 Depulpin^�과 Formocresol에 대한 치수와 치근단 조직의 반응

문형인,황인남,오원만 전남대학교 치의학연구소 2002 구강과학 Vol.14 No.2

One fifth dilution of formocresol is usually used for pulpotomy of the primary teach and emergency pulpotomy of the permanent teeth. However, the use of formaldehyde has been subjected to criticism because it may be absorbed into the blood stream and become distributed systemically, it may also alter the pulp tissue rendering it immunologically active, and have carcinogenic potential. Recently Depulpin^(r)(VoCo., Germany) gains popularity as a devitalizing agent during root canal therapy in spite of high concentration of 49% paraformaldehyde because it facilitate devitalization of pulp and make root canal therapy easier. But there have been not enough publications about the reaction of pulp and periapical tissue caused by Depulpin. This study was performed to evaluate the histological changes in pulp and periapical tissue of rats after pulpotomy using formocresol and Depulpin and to elucidate the toxic effects of these agents. Thirty six Sprague-Dawley rats were anesthetized by intraperitoneal injection of ketamine. Maxillary first molar teeth were used for pulpotomy with formocresol and Depulpin. Rate were sacrificed after 2days, 4days, 1week, 2weeks, 3weeks and 4weeks respectively. Specimens were histologically observed by light microscope changes in pulp and periapical tissue. The obtained results were as follows. 1. Formocresol group A zone of fixed tissue, in which odontoblasts could clearly be defined, was present directly underneath the pulpotomy dressing in almost all teeth of this group. This was followed by an area of necrotic tissue which resembled dried out fibrous tissue with no cellular detail except some pyknotic nuclei. In the specimens of after 2days, 4days, 1week, 2weeks in which vital tissue was present, it was separated from the fibrous area by a zone of inflammation. In the specimens of after 3weeks and after 4 weeks, inflammatory infiltrate was in the periodontal ligament adjacent to the apical foramina of the teeth. 2. Depulpin^(r) group The area of necrotic tissue which had no cells and fibers, was present adjacent to the dressing. This was followed by dried out fibrous tissue with no cellular details except some pyknotic nuclei. A short stump of vital pulp with odontoblasts was present at the end of the canal after 2days. Inflammatory infiltrate was in the periodontal ligament after 4days and after 1week. Severe root resorption and necrosis of periapical tissue opposite the root resorption site were defined after 2 weeks and after 3weeks. Periapical lesion which consist of necrotic tissue surrounded by fibrous connective wall, was found after 4weeks. The results indicated that Depulpin can cause more adverse reaction to the dental pulp and periapical tissue than formocresol, and further studies are needed for its clinical use with safety.

응급센터에서 기관내 삽관을 시행하지 않은 호흡곤란 환자의 동맥혈 이산화탄소분압과 호기말 이산화탄소분압의 연관성분석

김형국,박승현,오동렬,박규남,이원재,황두영,최승필,이운정,정시경,김세경 大韓應急醫學會 1998 대한응급의학회지 Vol.9 No.4

Background: The end-tidal carbon dioxide tension(ETCO₂) is defined as a partial pressure of carbon dioxide at the end of an exhaled breath. The purpose of this study is to determine the correlation between ETCO₂and arterial carbon dioxide tension(PaO₂) in nonintubated patients with respiratory distress in emergency department(ED). Methods: A prospective non-blind study was performed in ED of our university hospitals. Participants included all nonintubated adult patients with respiratory distress requiring arterial blood gas analysis. ETCO₂was measured with a capnography monitor during tidal volume breathing. ETCO₂were recoreded at the time of arterial blood gas sampling. The correlation between ETCO₂and PaCO₂was analyzed in all patients and in subgroups by simple linear regression. Results: Sixty patients were enrolled. In all patients, ETCO₂was 5.72mmHg lower than PaCO₂and correlated well with PaCO₂(r²=0.716). ETCO₂correlated best with PaCO₂in patients who were either acidotic or non-smoking. Conclusion: ETCO₂correlate well with PaCO₂in nonintubated patients with respiratory distress in ED. ETCO₂may be sufficient to reflect PaCO₂in selected patients and obviate the need for repeat arterial blood gas determination.

초기 성공적인 심폐소생술후 혈청 Interleukin-6 농도의 발현양상

박규남,박승현,황두영,김형국,이환,최경호,이원재,정욱성,김학주,김세경 大韓應急醫學會 1998 대한응급의학회지 Vol.9 No.4

Objective : To investgate patterns of serial serum interleukin-6(IL-6) concentrations after initial successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and to access differences in serum IL-6 concentrations in patients with Cerebral Performance Category(CPC, 1-2) and CPC(3-5) at the 5th day after cardiacpulmonary resuscitation(CPR). Methods : We studied prospectively 12 patients with spontaneous circulation after cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Venous blood samples were taken 2, 4, 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours after restoration of spontaneous circulation to measure serum IL-6 levels by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results : Serum IL-6 concentrations in the severe neurolgically disabled group(CPC, 3-5) were significantly increased at 2, 24 and 48 hours after restoration of spontaneous circulation compared with the less neurolgically disabled group. Also, serum IL-6 concentrations in the severe neurolgic disabled group showed dual peak at 4 and 24 hours. Conclusion : Our study demonstrates significant increase of serum IL-6 in patients with CPC(3-5) after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation and the significant correlation between early increase of serum IL-6 and poor neurologic outcome. It suggests that early increase of serum IL-6 can be used as a prognostic marker after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

재발 또는 불응성 비호즈킨 림프종 환자에서 CDME 구제항암화학요법 후 고용량 항암화학요법 및 자가말초혈액 조혈모세포이식의 효과

김세형,한강원,배상병,김찬규,이남수,이규택,박성규,원종호,홍대식,박희숙 순천향의학연구소 2004 Journal of Soonchunhyang Medical Science Vol.10 No.1

Background and objectives : The long-term survival in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) after conventional dose chemotherapy is about 35% and the rest of the patients tend to have relapse. So, in relapsed or refractory NHL, we compared the outcome of patients undergoing high-dose chemotherapy with autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation(APBSCT) with only salvage chemotherapy of cisplatin, dexamethasone, mitoxantrone, and etoposide(CDME). Materials and methods : From June 1993 to December 1999, 25 patients with relapsed or resistant NHL were treated with CDME regimen as salvage chemotherapy. Twelve patients were received four cycles of CDME chemotherapy, and 13 patients were received high-dose chemotherapy with APBSCT following two cycles of CDME chemotherapy. Results : The median follow-up duration was 12.8 months(range:4-68). The overall response rate was 41.7% (complete response rate 25%, partial response rate 16.7%) in 12 patients with CDME only. Thirteen patients who were treated with high-dose chemotherapy with APBSCT achieved 61.5% complete response rate and 15.4% partial response rate, with an overall response rate of 76.9%. The estimated 3-year progression-free survival rate was significantly higher among patients who received high-dose therapy than patients who received CDME only(41.5% vs 20.0%, p<0.05). And, 3-year overall survival rate was significantly higher among patients who received high-dose therapy(51.3% vs 25.0%, p <0.05). Conclusions : In relapsed or refractory NHL, CDME chemotherapy is an effective salvage chemotherapy and allow peripheral blood stem cell collection. Also, high-dose chemotherapy with APBSCT following CDME is superior to CDME salvage chemotherapy only.

국내외 하수처리장 자동화 현황 조사

김창원,고주형,최광수,허남효,김병군 釜山大學校生産技術硏究所 1999 生産技術硏究所論文集 Vol.56 No.-

하수처리장 운전 제어 및 자동화는 현재 세계적인 추세이다. 자동 제어를 도입함으로써 운전의 효율성 및 안정성 향상, 일관된 운전, 운전비용 절감 등 많은 이득을 기대할 수 있다. 유럽 등 선진국에서는 이미 7,80년대부터 다방면에서 많은 역구가 수행되었고, 80년대 이후 건설된 대부분의 하수처리장에서 용존산소 농도 제어를 비롯한 기본적인 제어를 실제로 적용하고 있다. 그러나 현재까지 국내에는 하수처리장에 자동 제어가 적용된 경우가 없으며, 현장 적용은 몇몇 폐수처리장에 국한된다. 그러나 자동 제어를 통해 얻을 수 있는 이득이 매우 크다는 것이 명백하고, 현재 각 대학 연구에서 활발하게 연구를 수행하고 있으므로, 가까운 장래에 많은 하·폐수처리장에 자동 제어가 광범위하게 도입될 것으로 기대된다. Operational control and automation of sewage works is a worldwide tendency. By introducing automatic control, many benefits like improvement of efficiency and stability, consistent operation an operational cost saving, can be obtained. Lots of process studies have been performed from 7,80s in developed countries, and basic control (e. g. DO control) is having been appplied to almost every plants constructed after 80s. In Korea, no large sewage work is automatically controlled till now, while some limited application for wastewater treatment plants are exist. But it is very clear that automatic control holds great porfits and lots of vigorous researches are being conducted in many universities and laboratiories, so widespread introduction of automatic control to sewage/wastewater treatment plant in near future is expected.

압축력과 휨을 받는 Hollow Core Slab의 구조적 거동에 관한 연구

강원석,김승훈,이리형,김용남,김종수 대한건축학회 2003 대한건축학회 학술발표대회 논문집 - 계획계/구조계 Vol.23 No.2(구조계)

Recently, Many engineers have used Hollow Core Slab(HCS) system on buildings. However, they couldn't apply this system to under three underground buildings, because the axial force effect hasn't yet been clearly investigated. This paper presents the test results for structural behaviors of HCS under axial and bending load. Variables are the thickness of Topping concrete and the maginitude of axial forces. The thicknesses are 100mm and l50mm. The axial forces are 0kN, 911.4kN, 1313.2kN, 1640.5kN. The results showed that HCS system has more strength capacity as the axial forces are increaser.

한국형 리더십 과정 개발과 적용 및 성과에 관한 실증적 연구 : ‘지혜인 리더십 과정’을 중심으로

문형남,손기원 숙명여자대학교숙명리더십개발원 2007 숙명리더십연구 Vol.6 No.-

21C 글로벌 경영환경에서 국가경쟁력 제고를 위한 인적자원 개발의 중요성이 커지고 있으며, 서구적 경영 패러다임의 한계를 극복할 한국형 리더십 과정의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 본 연구는 한국형 리더십 과정의 개발과 적용 및 성과 측정에 관한 최초의 연구라는 점에 의의가 크다. 한국이라는 지역이 갖는 문화적 특수성과 경영 패러다임이 급속하게 변하는 상황을 고려할 때 한국형 리더십 과정의 개발이 시급히 요구된다. 경영 패러다임의 변화가 지식경영에서 지혜경영으로 변화하는 변곡점에 있다고 볼 때, 각 조직 구성원에게 보다 효과적으로 수용되는 ‘한국형 리더십’은 ‘지혜인 리더십’이라 할 수 있다. 지혜인(Wise Man)은 높은 수준의 자기수양을 함으로써 자기중심성을 극복하고 도덕성과 통찰력을 갖춘 자를 말한다. 우리 민족은 심신수양을 근간으로 한 지혜의 민족이며, 그 중 한국 고유의 리더십은 조선시대 정신적 리더였던 군자에게서 찾을 수 있는데, 그 철학적 기반은 유학에서 찾을 수 있다. 유학은 안으로 자기의 인격을 완성하고 밖으로 그 완성된 인격으로 세상 사람들을 돕는 수기(修己: self-leadership)와 치인(治人: leadership)의 실천적 학문이다. 그런 점에서 유학의 핵심 개념인 성(性), 도(道), 경(敬), 인(仁), 중(中), 통(通) 등의 개념을 현대적 리더십으로 구체화하고, 덕(德)의 리더십을 회복함으로써 조직 구성원과 고객을 행복하게 하는 안민(安民)의 리더십이 곧 ‘지혜인 리더십’인 것이다. 한편 서양에서도 성경에 지혜라는 단어가 400여회 나오는 점 등을 볼 때 동양 사상과 서양 사상이 지혜를 근간으로 한다는 면에서 일맥상통하는 점을 발견할 수 있었으며, 세계화의 가능성도 엿볼 수 있다. ‘지혜인 리더십 과정’은 지혜경영 연구소에서 개발하여 삼성전자 등에서 196명의 정규과정(24시간 이상) 수료자와 경기중소기업CEO과정 등에서 95명의 단축과정(7~8시간) 수료자를 포함하여 총 291명의 수료자를 배출했다. 손기원은 2004년 7월부터 2006년 12월까지 2년 6개월의 기간을 투입하여 과정을 개발하고 2007년부터 과정을 본격적으로 운영했으며, 문형남은 과정에 피교육생으로 직접 참여하고 성과를 측정했다. ‘지혜인 리더십 과정'의 성과를 측정하기 위해 독자적으로 고안한 피드백 프로그램을 적용하였다. 과정을 시작하는 시점과 과정이 끝나는 시점에 24개의 똑같은 문항의 설문으로 자기평가를 하게 함으로써 과정의 성과를 측정했다. 그 결과 과정 시작시 평균 69.6점(100점 만점으로 환산)에서 과정 종료시 평균 81.3점(100점 만점으로 환산)으로 16.9% 향상된 것으로 나타났다. 노사관계 패러다임이 분배투쟁 위주에서 인적자원개발로 전환되고 있고, 인적자원개발 수요가 확대일로에 있는 상황에서 이제 우리는 개발된 과정에 대한 과학적 분석과 평가, 과정 개발 전문가와 진행자(FT) 등 전문인력 양성, 한국형 리더십 프로그램의 세계화 및 각급 학교 정규 교육에의 적용 등을 통해 한국형 리더십 프로그램을 발전시켜 나가야 할 것이다. 그것은 서구적 경영 패러다임의 한계를 극복하고 인적자원개발의 새로운 지평을 열어가는 계기가 될 것으로 기대된다. Importance of 'development of human resources' for 'raise of national competitive power' in 21C global management environment has become more larger, and necessity of Korean style leadership program which can overcome limit of western management paradigm has become more bigger. This study is very meaningful because this is first study about development and application of Korean style leadership program. Development of Korean style leadership program is needed urgently, when we consider of 'cultural particularity of Korea' and 'the situation of fast change in management paradigm'. Considering we are in the turning point, change of management paradigm from knowledge management to wisdom management, Korean style leadership, which is accepted more effectively by members of organizations in Korea, can be 'wise man leadership'. 'Wise Man' is a person who has ethicality and insight, and overcomes self-centeredness by culturing superbly'. Korean inherent leadership can be found in 'man of virtue' who was mental leader in Joseon Dynasty, that philosophical base can be found in Confucianism. Confucianism, which is mainstream of oriental thought, is practical study about self-leadership(修己) and leadership(治人) which asserts a completion of inner self-personality and exterior aid of other people in world by complete personality. Therefore, we can think that whole oriental thoughts have a management-philosophical characteristic of individual self-management leadership and organiaztion-management leadership. In that point, It is important that we recover leadership of Deok(德: virtue) and embody concepts as Seong(性: natural mind), Do(道: morality), Kyung(敬: concentration), In(仁: humanity), Choong(中: moderation), Tong(通 : interchange), which are just like oriental thought's core concept, as modern leadership. As a result of that, leadership of calming people(安民), which makes organization's members and customers happy, is ‘Wise Man Leadership’. ‘Wise Man Leadership Course’ is developed in wisdom-management institute, and it produces total 291 recipients, including 196 recipients of regular course (more than 24hours) in Samsung Electronics etc. and 96 recipients of shortened course(7~8 hours) in CEO course of small and medium enterprises in Gyeonggi region. Shon Kiwon developed and ran this program, and Hyung Nam Moon participated in this program and measured outcome as an educates. We applied feedback program, which is designed solitarily, to measure outcome of ‘Wise Man Leadership Course’. We measure outcome of the course by self-estimating with same 24 questions at the beginning of the course and at the end of the course. As a result of that, it shows the result that average of 69.6 (of 100 point) at the beginning of the course has become as average 81.3(of 100 point) at the end of the course and it means rise of 14.1 point which is 16.9%. Now we should develop Korean style leadership program through scientific analysis and valuation of developed course, training of professional manpower just like course development experts and masters(FT), globalization of Korean style leadership program and applying regular school curiculum. It is expected as an opportunity which will overcome limit of western management paradigm and pioneer new area of 'development of human resources'.