선물환시장을 이용한 환위험관리 : 이변량 ECT-ARCH(1)모형을 중심으로

문규현,-- 한국금융학회 2003 金融學會誌 Vol.8 No.2

본 연구에서는 국내선물환(Forwards)을 이용한 원·달러현물환율 변동위험에 대한 헤지성과를 분석하였으며 주요 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 최적헤지비율 추정결과, 최소분산헤지비율 및 이변량 ECT-ARCH(1) 모형 모두 기간이 짧은 원·달러선물환율들의 헤지비율이 기간이 긴 원·달러선물환율을 이용한 헤지비율보다는 상대적으로 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 시간변동최적헤지모형이 최소분산 헤지모형이 헤지비율보다 상대적으로 높은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 헤지모형별 헤지성과 분석결과에 의하면, 내표본(within-sample) 및 외표본(out-of-sample)기간 모두 헤지비율이 시간이 경과함에 따라 변화하는 이변량 ECT-ARCH(1) 모형 및 이변량 ARCH(1)의 헤지성과가 단순헤지모형과 헤지비율이 일정한 것으로 가정하는 전통적 헤지모형인 최소분산헤지모형(minimum variance hedging model)보다 상대적으로 더 나은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 각 기간별 원·달러선물환의 헤지성과 분석 결과, 환율변동에 따른 원·달러 현물가격변동 위험을 헤지하기 위해서는 장기적인 원·달러선물환보다는 단기 선물환율을 이용한 헤지성과가 상대적으로 더 나은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 우리나라 원·달러외환시장의 경우 단순헤지모형과 전통적인 최소분산헤지모형보다는 시간변동 최적헤지모형을 이용하는 것이 더 바람직한 헤지성과를 얻을 수 있으며, 장기보다는 3개월 미만의 단기선물환을 이용하는 것이 상대적으로 나은 결과를 보였다. This paper studies hedging strategies that use the Won-dollar forwards to hedge the price risk of the Won-dollar exchange rate. This study uses the minimum variance hedge model and bivariate ECT-ARCH (1,1) model as hedge models, and analyzes their hedge performances. The sample period covers from March 1, 2002 to March 31, 2003 with 7 sub-samples such as 1week, 1month, 3months, 6months, 9months, and 1year. The most important findings may be summarized as follows. First, the hedge ratios of short periods in 3months are relatively higher than those of long periods above 3months. Hedge ratios of the ECT-ARCH (1) tend to be higher than those of risk-minimization model. Second, for both the in-sample data and the out-sample, hedging effectiveness of ARCH (1) and ECT-ARCH (1) model is higher than that of the risk-minimization with constant hedge ratios. Third, the hedge effectiveness of short periods consistently tend to be higher than that of long periods. In conclusion, investors are encouraged to use the time varying hedge models like ARCH, ECT-ARCH model rather than simple risk-minimization model to hedge Won-dollar exchange rate with short periods forwards within 3months.

消化性潰瘍의 治法 및 運治方 活用에 對한 考察

文九,林圭庠,崔賢 圓光大學校 漢醫科大學 1989 圓光漢醫大論文集 Vol.- No.6

After finding out cure-all method by analyzing and synthesizing of Peon-Zheng-Shi-Chi(辨證施治) and clinical character of peptic ulcer, forming a cure-all prescription, attempting to conform the modificatory method of Kun(monarch). Shin(minister). Zhoa(assistant). Sha(guide) of forming drugs by Peon-Zheng(辨證) and modificatory drugs with Peon-Zheng-Shi-Chi(辨證施治) of Oriental medicine and pharmacologic effect of Western medicine, the author obtained conclusion as below. 1. The cure-all method based on the method of Peon-Zheng-Shi-Chi(辨證施治) are So-Kan-Hai-Wul (疏肝解鬱), Hoa-Wei (和胃), Hoal-Heol-Sang-ki (活血生肌), Hai-Keong-Zhin-Tong (解痙鎭痛), Jhei-San(制酸)(antacid). 2. The forming drugs of cure-all prescripiton are Radix paeoniae, Radix Glycyrrhizae, Rhizoma Cyperi, Radix Aucklandiae, Radix Linderae, Rhizoma Atracyodis, Pericarpium Citri Reticulatae, Cortex Magnoliae Officinalis, Os Sepiae, Rhizoma Corydalis, Resina Myrrhae, Radix Astragali, Radix Adenophorae, Ramulus Cinnamomi. 3. The main durgs of each Peon-Zheng(辨證) are Rhizoma Cyperi, Radix Paeoniae Alba, Pericarpium Citri Reticulatae, Radix Aucklandiae, Radix Linderae in the symptoms of Ki-Chei(氣滯) Caused by Kan-Ki-Hoing-Yeog(肝氣橫逆) ; Radix Astrageli, Ramulus Cinnamomi, Radix Paeoniae Alba in the symptoms of Ki-Chei(氣滯) of Mog-Pul-So-To (木不疏土) caused by Kan-Ki-Her (肝氣虛) ; Radix Astragali, Ramulus Cinnamomi, Radix Paeoniae Alba, Radix Glycyrrhizae, Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae in the symptoms of Her-Han(虛寒);Radix Adenophorae, Radix Paeoniae Alba in the symptoms of Wei-Yeum-Her(胃陰虛) and Wul-Yeol(鬱熱) ; Rhizoma Cyperi, Rhizoma cotydalis, Resina Myrrhae in the symptoms of Yer-Heol(瘀血) ; Rhizoma Atractylodis, Pericarpium Citri Reticulatae, Cortex Magnoliae Officinalis in the symptoms od Tam-Kuel(痰厥). On the other hand, classifying and using the modification and utility method by the character of drug in order to coinside with Peon-Zheng (辨證) and pharmacologic effect, and finding out the therapeutic methods and prescriptions to protect the sideaction, it is considered that the better therapeutic effect will gain.

중·고등학생들의 보건교육 요구도 조사연구

문기내,남철현,김귀희,위광복,박경옥,이미경,심규범,장영진 慶山大學校 保健福祉硏究所 2003 保健福祉硏究 Vol.8 No.-

This study was conducted to examine middleㆍhigh school 720 students in seven regions of middleㆍsmall city and town, Myon for 2 months from March 2 through April 30, 2002 in order to realize a side of school health education in middleㆍhigh school and health education need as well as health education specialist in school in the future. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. 1. Health condition is now 'normal' is 51.0%, 'good' is 45.0%, 'not good' is 4.1% and health condition of children is good as much as education level of mother is higher. 2. Experience to learn health education in school for one year recently is 'no' is 39.6%, 'don't know' is 32.6%, 'yes' is 27.8% and it represents health education in school doesn't work well and experience to learn health education is lower and lower in town and Myon. 3. Health education ways to work in school now are 'Movie, Video, Slide' is 40.7%, 'education as groups of nurse-teacher' is 38.6%, 'to distribute health education material and book' is 7.7%, 'education by setting an example' is 3.4%, 'the others' is 9.7%. 4. Time of appropriate health education for one time is 'about a hour' is 56.7%, 'about 30 minute' is 33.8%, 'about two hour' is 7.6%, it represents this situation is because of what students' time is lack and burden about a curriculum in an education administratin and school classed of a focused school score. 5. The average score of satisfaction of health education in school is 16.99±0.58, 'men' is 1.79±0.60, 'women' is 1.61±0.55 as the distinction of sex, satisfaction level of men is higher than women. 6. Learning route about health information is 'through mass media' is 59.9%. 'through family, friend' is 15.0% 'health education lecture' is 7.2%, 'printing media' is 6.1%, 'medical institution' is 5.6%, 'the others' is 5.1%, 'public health center' is 1.0%, 'through mass media' is the highest percent as each 59.1% and 60.6% in all of men and women. 7. The most efficient education way of health education is 'movie, video, slide' is 32.6%, 'health education specialist who works school' is 21.9%, 'school health education by nurse-teacher' is 16.0%, 'way through mass communication' is 11.6%. 8. The appropriate health education specialist in the future is 'health education specialist who has qualifications' is the highest as 64.5%, 'nurse-teacher' is 12.4%, 'medical personnel(doctor, a physician of oriental medicine etc.,)' is 11.0%, 'staff in public health center' is 7.2%, people in other regions(health and medical professor etc.,) is 7.0%, it represents school health education is not actual and is formal now in second hand. 9. The most necessary health education program is 'program of stress solution' is the highest as 24.9%, 'program of no smoking' is 22.7%, 'sexual education program' is 19.8%, 'school violence program' is 8.8%, 'isolate from their friends prevention program' is 8.0%, solution program of stress which gives student by school score was very necessary. Therefore, school health education is formal and inefficient because school education focuses on an entrance exam, so middleㆍhigh school students decrease concern and interest about health education. Furthermore, reliance is gotten down about nurse-teacher who takes charge of school health, a charged person of school health education wants more chargeable health education staff. And a solution program of stress that gives students by school score was very necessary. According to active concern and planned, systematic school health education is necessary to give right health knowledge, health maintenanceㆍpromotion and setting of appropriate health education specialist is very urgent.

건설현장 근로자들의 안저예방실태와 사고예방과의 개선요인 조사연구

심규범,남철현,최상복,이송권,이정희,이순자,문기내,김문환 慶山大學校 保健福祉硏究所 2003 保健福祉硏究 Vol.8 No.-

This study was conducted to examine aspects of health and safety education and demand level of safety education in construction job sites in order to provide direction of safety education development. The subjects of this study were 566 workers who were working in construction job sites located in Daegu City and Kyungbuk Province. Data were collected from June 1, 2002 to August 30, 2002. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. 1. According to safety education by experience methods, the proportion of education by lecture was highest (90.6%). The proportion of education by field practice was 13.1%. 2. Among the education methods which they thought as the most desirable method, the proportion of audio-visual education was 39.4% and the proportion of education by experience was 37.5%. Those who had more monthly income and higher education level preferred audio-visual education, while those who were younger and less educated preferred education by experience. 3. In the case of the contents of the safety education which they thought as the most important one, the proportion of enhancement of safety awareness and education of risk factors was highest (24.7%). The groups of older workers, having longer working period, and belonging to higher education level preferred these contents. 4. According to the factors which were most important to increase effectiveness of the safety education were workers' voluntary participation (27.7%), 40 to 49 years old (27.7%), and monthly income of one million, five hundred thousand won to one million, nine hundred ninety thousand won (32.0%). The proportions of lower educated workers and working as daily workers were also high. 5. The variable which most influenced the safety education was age. The safety awareness of construction job sites was the second highest influential variable. From above results, it is clear that the workers' participation in the safety education was low since most of the safety educations were formal education by lecture. Although they participated in the education, the education was also not effective because they compulsorily participated in it. Therefore, it can be concluded that effective alternative policies must be formulated.

O_3/활성탄에 의한 고도정수처리에 미치는 기존처리공정의 영향에 관한 연구

김현정,서규태,문병현,이택순 7개 국립대학교 환경연구 논문집 공동발행 위원회 2001 환경연구논문집 Vol.1 No.1

The effect of conventional process, such as coagulation, sedimentation and rapid sand filtration, on O_3/GAC was evaluated for stable operation of the advanced treatment process. Five years long term water quality data was analyzed for a water treatment plant adopting O_3/GAC. Treatment efficiency of unit process in the plant was also monitored for 7 months(from 2000. 11 to 2001. 5) to investigate the pre-treatment effect on the operation of the process. Despite significant seasonal variation of raw water quality, treated water of the plant was good enough to meet drinking water quality standard. However effluent turbidity (1NTU) of sand filter was relatively high compared to the guideline that turbidity of filtered water should be lower than 0.3NTU for the effluent turbidity, 2NTU, of sedimentation tank. It was observed that effluent organic compound of sand filter gave an adverse effect on the running time of GAC filter. This phenomenon could be deduced from the correlation of the effluent water quality of sand filter and GAC in terms of TOC and UV-254. Therefore more sophisticated operation, such as adopting enhanced coagulation, should be given to the conventional process for stable and extended operation of GAC filter to produce safer drinking water even at deteriorated raw water quality.

지하매설 구조물에 작용하는 토압에 관한 실내 모형 실험

김문규,김현탁 동의공업대학 2001 論文集 Vol.27 No.1

Buried box structures are used for highway, railway and public utilities such as water supply, sewerage and electric works. Such use will be increased for land efficiency, traffic and environmental problems in the future. In the design method for box structure, for the vertical pressure on the top of the structure and for the lateral pressure on the wall, the Marston's and Jaky's(1944) equations are used in practice, respectively. However, the existed design methods does not consider the excavation geometry and the backfill process. Here, a model experiment was performed for the earth pressures acting on a buried box structure, which was considered both the backfill geometry and process. And the experimental data was compared with those by the existed methods. The results of comparison are as follows: (1) The vertical pressure by the model experiment was different with the self weight(γH), but depending on the geometry and relative density of backfill. (2) The calculated lateral pressure by the Silo theory agreed well with the measured one in tbackfill widthhe narrow.

效率的인 環境敎育을 위한 敎授·學習方法의 改善에 關限 硏究 : 中學校를 中心으로 in Middle School

김현철,이택순,문병현,서규태 7개 국립대학교 환경연구 논문집 공동발행 위원회 2002 환경연구논문집 Vol.2 No.1

This paper focuses on the development of desirable curriculum for environmental education in middel school. From the questionnaire investigation for teachers and students of 10 middle schools in Gyeongnam-do, it is desirable that the eduaction program should be practical and experiential rather than the current cramming lecture. In addition, environmental education program should be introduced as a compulsory subject through continuous and systematic curriculum. A training program is necessary for specialist group teaching environmental issues too. Institution of regional environmental education center is an appropriate meausre to develop such program. It will be helpful for open communication between school and social community. National support is necessarily required to promote research activity and to develop innovative teaching materials in such center. Consequently the national environmental network will be constructed and effective environmental education will be implemented.

포기/비포기 시간비가 활성슬러지 floc의 특성에 미치는 영향

김강호,문병현,이택순,서규태 7개 국립대학교 환경연구 논문집 공동발행 위원회 2002 환경연구논문집 Vol.2 No.1

Many researches on SBR(Sequencing batch Biological Reactor) for the removal efficiency of contaminants and effects of operation mode in effluent have been conducted. However, little studies for the characteristic of biological floc affected by operation mode have been made. The purpose of this study is to compare the effect factors on the removal efficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus in SBR system. And also it is to look for new information on the size and characteristics of biological floc by changed aerobic/anaerobic time ratio. Results shown that the removal efficiency of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus was higher in the operation mode of higher aerobic/anaerobic time ratio. The floc size and fractal dimension produced in higher aerobic/anaerobic time ratio were larger. These result implied that the settling characteristics of floc could be produces in the operation mode of higher aerobic/anaerobic time ratio.

O_3와 O_3/UV를 이용한 수용액중의 음이온계면활성제의 처리에 관한 연구

김태성,문병현,이택순,서규태 7개 국립대학교 환경연구 논문집 공동발행 위원회 2001 환경연구논문집 Vol.1 No.1

Water pollution by discharging surfactant into receiving water has become serious. One of pollutants widely contained in domestic wastewater is surfactants. To remove these surfactants, ozonation has been used but it doesn't perfectly remove relatively non-degradable organic matter. Recently, an advanced oxidation process using OH radical has been developed and applied for removing such non-degradable pollutants. In this study it was treated Sodium Dodecyl Benzene Sulfonate (DBS) using Ozone and Ozone/UV process. The results showed that removal efficiencies by Ozonation increased as the dissolved ozone concentration, initial temperature and pH increased. The combination process of Ozone/UV for DBS removal resulted in 4 times higher reaction rate than the Ozonation process. The combination process showed higher removal efficiencies for treating laundry wastewater and the removal efficiencies was increased by pretreating particle matters.

염분이 함유된 폐수의 생물학적 처리시 염분농도가 오염물질의 제거에 미치는 영향

김상수,문병현,이택순,서규태,공남식 7개 국립대학교 환경연구논문집 공동발행 위원회 2005 공업기술연구 Vol.5 No.-

Effects of salt concentration and C/N ratio on pollutants removal efficiencies were investigated in treatment of seafood wastewater by sequence batch reactor(SBR). The synthetic seafood wastewater containing salinity from 3,000 to 10,000 mg/L NaCI and C/N ratio of 2 and 4 was treated by SBR. Removal efficiencies of COD_(Mn), T-N, and T-P decreased with increasing salt concentration, but eventually reached a pollutants removal a platrau. As systems adapted in salts until salts concentration of 8,000mg/L, the time required to reach the pollutants removal efficiencies at steady state was reduced. However, the removal efficiencies of pollutants sharply decreased and the time require to reach steady state was increased as salt concentration rose to 10,000mg/L, Removal efficiencies of COD_(Mn) were higher for C/N ratio of 4 than for 2. Effects of salt on the nitrogen removal were not faster than the organic removal but the time required to the nitrogen removal at steady state was ncreased. The removal efficiencies of phosphorus also were redueed as salt concentration increased, which inhibited the release of phosphorus than the uptake.