데이터 마이닝을 활용한 한국 프로야구 구단의 승패예측과 승률 향상을 위한 전략 도출 연구

김원종 ( Kim Won-jong ),최연식 ( Choi Yeon-sik ),유동희 ( Yoo Dong-hee ) 한국스포츠산업경영학회 2018 한국스포츠산업경영학회지 Vol.23 No.3

본 연구에서는 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용하여 한국 프로야구의 승패예측모형을 구축하는 실험을 진행하였다. 이를 위해, 2017년에 실시된 한국 프로야구 10개 구단의 전체 경기 중 무승부 경기를 제외한 1,418경기에 대한 자료를 사용하였다. 승패예측모형에는 의사결정나무, 베이즈넷, 인공신경망 알고리즘과 앙상블 기법인 배깅과 부스팅이 사용되었으며, 그 결과 배깅 기법에 인공신경망을 적용한 예측모형에서 가장 높은 예측률인 85.18%를 기록하였다. 다음으로 의사결정나무 기반 예측모형을 활용하여 한국 프로야구 전체 구단에 관한 8개의 승패규칙을 도출하였다. 여기에서 승패규칙은 승패예측에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들인 팀출루율, 팀타율, 피안타, 안타, 타석, 타수로 표현되며, 도출된 규칙을 바탕으로 구단의 승률 향상에 도움을 주는 전략을 제안하였다. 또한 플레이오프 진출 구단과 미진출 구단에 관한 승리규칙을 각각 4개씩 도출하였고 이를 바탕으로 두 집단에 맞춤화된 승률 향상 전략을 제시하였으며, 실제 구단에서 선수를 영입한 방향과의 비교를 통해 제시된 전략의 활용 가능성을 확인하였다. This study conducted an experiment to develop win-loss prediction models for the Korean professional baseball league using data mining techniques. To this end, we used data on 1,418 games from all games played by the ten Korean professional baseball teams in 2017, except draw games. We developed win-loss prediction models using not only a decision tree, Bayse net, and artificial neural network algorithms, but also ensemble methods, such as bagging and boosting. As a result, first, we found that the artificial neural network-based prediction model using the bagging method reported the best accuracy (85.18%). Second, we derived eight win-loss rules for entire teams from the decision tree-based prediction model. These rules consist of six influential factors: team on base average, team batting average, hit by opponent, hit, plate appearances, and at bat. Using the derived rules, we proposed helpful strategies for improving the winning rate. Third, we derived four winning rules for both playoff teams and non-playoff teams; using the rules we proposed customized strategies for improving the winning rate of the two different groups. Finally, we confirmed the feasibility of the proposed strategies by comparing non-playoff teams’ actual player recruitment strategies.

야뇨증 환아들의 심리사회적 특성에 대한 다기관 연구 : 행동 및 정서 문제를 중심으로

조수철,김재원,신민섭,황준원,한상원,박관현,이상돈,김경도,김건석,서홍진,이유식,정재용,김영균,문두건,남궁미경,한창희,조원열,김영식,배기수,이종국,정우영,신의진 大韓神經精神醫學會 2005 신경정신의학 Vol.44 No.6

Objectives : The aim of this study was to examine the behavioral and emotional problems associated with nocturnal enuresis in Korean children. Methods : Three hundred eighteen children with nocturnal enuresis, together with their parents, completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), Disruptive Behavior Disorder Scale according to DSM-IV (DBDS), Children's Depression Inventory (CDI), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children (STAIC), and Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale (PHCSC). Ninety-three normal students were selected as the control group. Results : Compared to the normal control group, the mean scores with regard to the withdrawn, social problems, attention problems, delinquent behavior, aggressive behavior, externalizing problems and total problems profiles were significantly higher in the nocturnal enuresis group according to the CBCL results. The nocturnal enuresis group also scored significantly higher in the ADHD and ODD profiles of the DBDS. The nocturnal enuresis group was more depressed and anxious than the control group according to the results of the CDI and STAI. The mean score of the PHCSC was significantly lower in the nocturnal enuresis group when compared to the normal control group. Conclusion : The results of this study suggest that children with nocturnal enuresis in Korea have clinically relevant behavioral and emotional problems. The findings support the link between nocturnal enuresis and psychopathology in Korean children.

고속가공에서 2중 신경망을 이용한 표면거칠기 예측과 가공DB 구축 효율화 방안

원종률,남성호,유송민,이석우,최헌종 한국공작기계학회 2004 한국공작기계학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2004 No.-

In this paper, a double artificial neural network (ANN) approach and the efficient machining database building scheme are presented for the prediction of surface roughness in high-speed machining. In this approach, 4 machining parameters and used for the prediction of cutting force components, and the combinations of 4 parameters and the predicted cutting force components are finally used for the prediction of surface roughness. The experimental results comparing the these results with the predicted values using simple 4 input nodes have been also investigated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

인쇄체 영문자·숫자·특수문자 인식을 위한 특징 추출에 관한 연구

유우종,박종원 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1989 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.16 No.2

This paper proposes new feature extraction and recognition method for alphanumeric and special characters printed in various type fonts. The method consists of two stages-feature extraction and recognition stages. This method is very capable of recognition multi-font printed alphanumeric and special characters and can correct the tilt input data. The recognition rate is 99.689% for the printed Bold, Roman, and Italic type faces.

운동량변화가 온도변화가 있는 비정상 난류유동장에 미치는 영향

유근종,전원대,김수태 창원대학교 산업기술연구소 2001 産技硏論文集 Vol.15 No.-

In analysis of unsteady turbulent flows with temperature variation, 3 different turbulence models of k-e model, modified k-e model, and Full Reynolds Stress(FRS) model, are applied. 3 Test Cases are selected for verification. These are vertical jet flows with water and sodium, and parallel jet flow with sodium. For overall verification of turbulence models, test cases are analyzed with 2-D and 3-D assumptions. Analysis yields the conclusion that 3-D computation with FRS betters others. However, modified modeling for near wall effect is required to improve its heat transfer characteristic analysis.

디스크 배열

元裕憲,金鍾勳,盧三赫 弘益大學校 科學技術硏究所 1995 科學技術硏究論文集 Vol.6 No.-

Disk arrays were proposed in the 1980`s as a way to allow parallelism between multiple disks to improve aggregate I/O performance. Today they appear in the product lines of most major computer manufactures. This paper gives a comprehensive overview of disk arrays and provides a framework in which to organize current and future work. First, this paper introduces disk arrays in general, and reviews the driving forces that have popularized disk arrays : performance and reliability. It discusses the two architectural techniques used in disk arrays, striping across multiple disks to improve performance and redundancy to improve reliability. Next, this paper describes 6 disk array architectures, namely RAID levels 0∼5. It goes on to discuss advanced research and implementation topics such as the way in which parity is distributed in a RAID, and the means of refining the basis RAID levels to improve performance. Finally, this paper describes software disk arrays which allow writing data redundantly across an array of disks in workstations distributed across the network.

내시경적 절제로 진단된 폴립 형태의 심재성 낭종성 위염 2예

허종현,조영화,성용완,유재훈,구동영,김갑식,노지훈,문원 고신대학교의과대학 2008 고신대학교 의과대학 학술지 Vol.23 No.2

Gastritis cystica profunda (GCP) is a disease characterized by hyperplastic and significant extension of cystic dilatation of the gastric mucous glands, which results in a cystic lesion in gastric submucosa. It often occurs on the part of gastroenterostomy, but can be found in the stomach without any previous surgery. GCP has variable gross finding including solitary polyps, diffuse ones, submucosal tumors, and rare giant gastric mucosal fold. It is difficult to tell GCP from a cancerous lesion by gross finding that the disease demands a necessary tissue biopsy, though GCP is commonly showed as a benign in the progress. We report a case of GCP in polypoid types diagnosed by endoscopic polypectomy.

국산 Avana 인공치아와 외국산 ITI 인공치아의 악골조직내 적합성에 관한 비교연구

유재하,이지웅,백성흠,정원균,김종배 大韓顎顔面成形再建外科學會 2002 Maxillofacial Plastic Reconstructive Surgery Vol.24 No.6

The purpose of this article is to confirm the longterm biocompatibility of national Avana implant and international ITI implant in dogs. At the fourth month after extreaction of the mandibular third and fourth premolar in three dog, both implants were inserted using careful atraumatic technique and prosthetic abutments were applied onto the implants in three months. After that, the implants were examined by naked eye and radiographic image every three months during 1 year, for detection of the complications, such as, mobility, bone resorption and wound infection. At 1 year after application of prosthetic abutment, the dogs were sacrificed for the histopathologic analysis by light microscope. The results obtained were as follows; 1. All implants had the ralatively good prognosis without mobility, wound infection and moderate bone resoprtion, in clinical and radiological evaluation during one year. 2. The all histopathologic specimens at one year after application of prosthetic abutment onto the implants showed the distinct osseointegration between implant system and bone, with projection of new bone apposition onto the peri-implant tissue. But Avana implants had the less osseointegration than ITI implants in the cancellous and marrow layer of jaw bone. 3. The all histopathologic specimens at one year after application of prosthetic device showed the firm junction by dense connective tissue pattern between the implant and the gingival portion. But Avana implants had the less firmer junction than ITI implants. 4. The authors confirmed that Avana implant and ITI implant have more higher tissue biocompatibility in dental implantation, but ITI implant has the more osseointegration than the Avana implant.

강박장애 환자에서 Sertraline 치료반응의 예측인자에 관한 연구

유은정,우행원,김영철,연규월,김종원,임원정 대한신경정신의학회 2000 신경정신의학 Vol.39 No.2

연구목적: 1980년 중반부터 강박장애의 치료로 SSRIs가 널리 쓰이고 있으나 치료반응의 예측인자에 대한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 sertraline 투여후 호전군과 비호전군의 인구학적 특성, 발병연령, 이환기간, 과거의 강방장애에 대한 투약경력, 정신과 질환의 가족력, 증상의 심각도, 임상양상 등의 변수들을 관찰하여 sertraline 치료반응과의 상관관계를 살펴보았으며 치료방응을 예측 할 수 있는 인자를 알아보았다. 방법: 연구 대상은 이대부속 동대문병원 정신과에 입원 또는 외래치료를 받은 환자들 중 정신과 진단 편람제 4판 진단 기준에 의거하여 강박장애로 진단 받은 31명(남자 10명, 여자 21명)이었다. 연구 방법은 sertraline을 하루 50mg씩 투약하면서 Y-BOCS, NIMHOCS, CGI로 강박증상의 변화를 평가하였고, HAM-A로 불안정도의 변화를 측정하여 투약 전 점수와 비교하였다. 결과: 1) Y-BOCS 점수 40%이상 감소와 함께 CGI 점수 2점 이상 감소를 보인 호전군은 대상환자 31명중 17명(54.8%)이었고, 비호전군은 14명이었다. 호전군이 비호전군에 비해 늦은 나이에 발병하는 경향을보였고(p<0.1), 이환기간이 짧았으며(p<0.05), 과거의 강박장애에 대한 투약경력은 적었다(p<0.05), 정신과 질환의 가족력은 두 집단간에 차이가 없었다. 2) 호전군에서 투약 전 Y-BOCS의 강박행동 점수가 유의하게 낮았으며(p<0.05), 기타 다른 평가척도에서는 두 집단간에 유의한 차이가 없었다. 3) 평균 Y-BOCS 점수는 투약 전에 비해 sertraline 투약 12주째 43.5%가 감소하였다. 투약 전과 비교하여 투약 2주째부터 불안을 평가하는 HAM-A 점수가 유의하게 감소하였고, 투약 4주째부터 Y-BOCS, NIMHOCS, CGI 점수가 유의하게 감소되기 시작하여 12주까지 지속되었다.(p<0.01). 4) 호전군에서 오염에 대한 강박사고와 씻음의 강박행동의 유의하게 많았으며(p<0.05), 셈의 강박행동은 없었다(p<0.05), 병적 의심은 비호전군에서 많은 경향을 보였다(p<0.1). 결론: 이상의 결과를 종합하면, 질병의 이환기간이 짧으며 과거의 강박장애에 대한 투약경력이 적고 투약 전강박행동이 심하지 않으며, 주된 임상양상이 오염에 대한 강박사고와 씻음의 강박행동인 경우 sertra-line에 좋은 치료반응을 보이지만, 셈의 강박행동이 있는 경우에는 치료반응이 좋지 않다고 예측할 수 있다. Objectives: The pharmacologic treatment of obsessive-compulsive disorder(OCD) with serotonergic antidepressant agents is well established in clinical psychiatry on the basis of serotonin hypothesis. Studies on predictive factors of treatment reponse to OCD are relatively scarce. The author compared the demographic factors, age of onset, length of illness, family history of mental illness, previous drug history for OCD, severity and type of symptoms between the drug reponders and non-responders to find out the predicitive factors that may be related to treatment response. Methods: The subjects were 31, both inpatients and outpatients who met the diagnostic criteria for OCD by DSM-IV and scored 20 or higher on the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Com-pulsive Scale(Y-BOCS) completed 12-week trial of sertraline. Y-BOCS, National Institute of Mental Health Obsessive-Compulsive Scale(NIMHOCS), Clinical Global Impression Scale(CGI) were scored to measure the changes of obsessive-compulsive symptoms, and Hamilto Anxiety Scale(HAM-A) was measured at each visit. Results: 1) The responders, defined as achieving at least a 40% decrease in the Y-BOCS total score and more than a 2 point decrease in CGI score, were 17(54.8%), and non-responders were 14(45.2%). Responders tended to show later onset(p<0.1), and shorter duration of illness(p<0.05), and less previous drug therapy for OCD(p<0.05) than non-responders. There were no significant differences in family history of mental illness between the two groups. 2) The basline Y-BOCS compulsive score was significantly lower in responders(p<0.05), although there was no significant difference in the basline severity of other measures. 3) The obsession of contamination and washing behaviors were more frequent, but compulsive counting was not shown, in responders(p<0.05). The pathological doubt tended to be more common in nonresponders(p<0.1). Conclusions: In summary, the patients with shorter duration of illness, less prior drug ther-apy for OCD, and less severe compulsive behaviors, and the obsession of contamination and washing behaviors are expected to be better outcome with sertraline, whereas compulsive counting are the predictor of poor response.

유전성 대사질환에서의 동종조혈모세포이식 : 단일 기관에서의 경험 A single center experience

유건희,김흥렬,이지은,이호영,천정미,성기웅,구홍회,이문향,진동규,김종원,김대원,김형록 대한조혈모세포이식학회 2001 대한조혈모세포이식학회지 Vol.6 No.2

배경: 유전성 대사질환의 치료로서 효소 요법 및 유전자 치료가 제한적인 현실에서 동종 조혈모세포이식이 현재로선 가장 중요한 치료가 될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 단일 기관에서 유전성 대사질환에 대해 동종 조혈모세포이식을 시행한 경험을 보고하고자 하였다. 방법: 삼성서울병원 유전성 대사질환 조혈모세포이식팀에서는 1999년 12월부터 2001년 3월까지 총 6례의 유전성 대사질환을 대상으로 동종 조혈모세포이식을 시행하였다. 대상 질환은 Hunter 증후군 3례, galactosialidosis 1례, 이염성 백질이영양증 1례, 부신백질이영양증 1례였으며 성별 분포는 남아가 5명, 여아가 1명이었으며 연령 분포는 2년 9개월에서 15년 9개월이었다. 5례는 HLA 일치 혈연간 골수이식이었으며 1례는 HLA 불일치 T 림프구 제거 말초혈액 조혈모세포이식이었다. 전처치는 모두 BuCy를 사용하였으며 이식편대숙주반응의 예방에는 cyclosporine을 사용하였다. 이식된 세포는 유핵세포가 4.81×10^(8)(2.40~7.01×10^(8))/kg이었으며 CD34+ 세포는 3.65×10^(6)(0.88~10.72×10^(6))/kg이었다. 결과: 이식 후 조혈기능의 회복은 모두 조기에 달성되었으며(ANC>500: 정중 9.5일, 범위 9~14일; PLT>50K: 정중 32일, 범위 23~34일) 이식과 관련된 합병증은 Gr I의 aGVHD 3례, 국한성의 cGVHD 1례, 경증의 간정맥 폐쇄성 질환이 1례이었다. 모든 환자에서 직간접적으로 이식 후 효소의 생산이 증가함이 확인되었으며 임상적인 호전을 보인 경우가 4례, 질병 진행이 중단된 경우가 1례, 질병이 진행된 경우가 1례이었다. 질병 진행이 중단되었던 1례는 면역억제제 투여 중 수두 감염에 의한 폐출혈로 사망하였다. 결론: 유전성 대사질환에서 동종 조혈모세포이식이 가장 중요한 치료법으로 사용될 수 있고 중추신경계 증상이 나타나기 전, 가능한 조기에 조혈모세포이식을 시행하는 것이 바람직할 것이며 적극적인 지지 요법이 필요하다. 향후 더 많은 임상 경험이 필요하리라 사료된다. Background: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) may be the most important treatment modality to cure a number of genetic metabolic disorders because of the limitation of enzyme replacement or gene therapy. In this study, we report our single center experience about HSCT in several genetic metabolic disorders. Methods: We performed 6 cases of HSCT for genetic metabolic disorders from December 1999 to March 2001. Patients' diagnoses were Hunter syndrome (3), galactosialidosis (1), metachromatic leukodystrophy (1), and adrenoleukodystrophy (1). Stem cell sources were bone marrow from HLA matched sibling donors in 5 patients and mother's peripheral blood stem cells in one patient who did not have HLA matched donors. Busulfan and cyclophosphamide for conditioning, and cyclosporine for the prevention of graft versus host disease were used in all patients. Transplanted total nucleated cell counts were median 4.81×10^(8)(2.40~7.01×10^(8))/kg , and CD34+ cells 3.65×10^(6)(0.88~10.72×10^(6))/kg. Results: All patients achieved early hematologic recovery (median 9.5 days, range 9~14 days for ANC>500/μL; median 32 days, range 23~34 days for PLT>50,000/μL). Transplant-related complications were 3 cases of grade 1 acute GVHD, a case of limited chronic GVHD, and a case of mild hepatic veno-occlusive disease. Enzyme levels were normalized in 4 patients evaluated and there were indirect evidences of enzyme production in the other 2 patients after HSCT. Four of the 6 patients showed symptomatic improvement, 1 patient (galactosialidosis) experienced disease stabilization without progression before he eventually died due to pulmonary hemorrhage, and the other 1 patient deteriorated progressively even after HSCT. Conclusions: Allogeneic HSCT can be done as the only curative treatment in a number of genetic metabolic disorders. It seems desirable to perform HSCT as early as possible before the onset of central nervous system symptoms. More experience and long term follow up is needed to evaluate the efficacy and to monitor the long term transplant-related complications.