논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

연구논문 - 무기재료분과 / 전기화학분과 : 양극산화에 의한 다공성 알루미나 막의 제조

이창우,이융,홍영호,장윤호,함영민 ( Chang Woo Lee,Yung Lee,Young Ho Hong,Yun Ho Jang,Young Min Hahm ) 한국공업화학회 1997 한국공업화학회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.1994 No.1

여우에 있어서 돼지 간 급여에 의한 비타민 A 과잉증의 집단발생

이창우,박응복,성재기,권오경,이경갑,정용탄,송본 관,Lee Chang-Woo,Bak Ung-Bok,Sung Jai-Ki,Kweon Oh-Kyeong,Lee Kyoung-Kap,Jung Young-Tane,H. Matsumoto 한국임상수의학회 1991 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.8 No.1

Hypervitaminosis A occurred in about 30% of foxes of five farms in Choongcheongbukdo-province from October 1989 to February 1990. Clinical signs were loss of appetite, retarded growth, lameness. Radiological changes were decreased density of the long bones, especially fibula, and osteophytes developed either on the lateral condyle of humerus or ulnar just below the semilunar notch. Pathological change was the development of exotosis as is evidenced by radiological examination. Pig liver and lung consisted 30∼55% of feeds from March 1989 to February 1990. The serum concentrations of vitamin A in 2 affected foxes were 45,900 and 47,300 IU/d$\ell$ and the concentrations of vitamin A in the liver were 8,760 and 10,842 IU/gm respectively. It is concluded that the high level of vitamin A in the pig liver and the large amount of pig liver in the feed composition are the etiology of the disease.

침입외래식물인 가시박과 털물참새피에 의하여 교란된 하안식생

이창우,김덕기,조현석,이효혜미,Lee, Chang Woo,Kim, Deokki,Cho, Hyunsuk,Lee, Hyohyemi 응용생태공학회 2015 Ecology and resilient infrastructure Vol.2 No.3

우리나라 하안역에서 외래식물 침입은 고유식물을 대체함으로써 생물다양성을 위협하는 가장 중요한 요인 중에 하나이다. 우리나라 고유 하안식생에 침입하는 두가지 주요 침입외래종인 가시박 (Sicyos angulatus)과 털물참새피 (Paspalum distichum var. indutum)가 고유 하안식생에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여, 이 두 식물이 침입한 전국 하천의 22개 조사지점에서 식물상과 식생구조를 조사하였다. 가시박은 한반도 중부지방에 주로 침입하였다. 이 외래식물은 수로를 따라서 왕성하게 덩굴을 형성함으로써 제방 사면과 높은 고수부에서 교관목과 장경 초본의 고유식생을 피압하여 하천관리자에게 문제가 되고 있는 초본식물이다. 털물참새피는 한반도 남부지방에서 점차 확산되고 있다. 얕은 지하경과 왕성하게 분지하는 포복경을 가지고 있는 이 침입식물은 정체되거나 유속이 느린 물 위를 덮는 치밀한 매트를 형성하여 경쟁력이 약한 고유 침수식물이나 단경 정수식물을 위협하였다. 하천 하안지역에서 새로운 침입종의 도입을 방지하고 침입한 외래종을 방제하여 고유 하안식생을 보전하기 위해서는 이곳에서 인위 교란을 방지하고 적절한 외래식물 관리가 필요하다. Biological invasion of alien plants is considered to be one of the most serious threats to biodiversity in riparian zones. The effects of two invasive alien plants, Sicyos angulatus and Paspalum distichum var. indutum, on the flora and community structure of the riparian vegetation were investigated at 22 sites at streams in Korea. Sicyos angulatus has invaded the central Korean Peninsula. This alien plant has caused problems to stream managers because of its aggressive vining growth. It had suppressed native vegetation such as trees, shrubs and tall grasses on bank slope and higher floodplains. Paspalum distichum var. indutum has become more widespread in the southern part of Korea. This invasive plant has shallow rhizomes and creeping, extensively branched stolons. It forms a dense mat over lotic or slowly-flowing water and threatens submerged and short emergent hydrophytes. In order to control the introduction and expansion of alien plants, limitation of artificial disturbances and appropriate alien plant management are needed in riparian areas.

화학기상응축 공정에서 TiO₂나노입자 특성에 미치는 반응온도와 전구체 농도의 영향 -Part II 분말형성에 대한 반응인자적 분석

이창우,유지훈,임성순,윤성희,이재성,좌용호,Lee, Chang-Woo,Yu, Ji-Hun,Im, Sung-Soon,Yun, Sung-Hee,Lee, Jai-Sung,Choa, Yong-Ho 한국재료학회 2003 한국재료학회지 Vol.13 No.5

Characteristics of $TiO_2$nanoparticles controlled by precursor flow rate and reaction temperature in chemical vapor condensation process were interpreted in the view of decisive reaction factors, i.e. supersaturation ratio, concentration of vapor molecule, collision frequency and rate, and residence time, which directly affect the particle size and size distribution in CVC reactor. As results, the increases of precursor flow rate and reaction temperature induced the increase in the average sizes of $TiO_2$ nanoparticles in CVC reactor by acceleration of coagulation growth due to the increase of collision between $TiO_2$vapor molecules and particles. The effects of reaction factors on the characteristics of$TiO_2$nanoparticles were discussed with considering particle formation process in CVC reactor under given process parameters.

리튬이온전지용 스피넬계 LiMn₂O₄ 양극에서 상이한 입자크기를 가진 전도성물질이 전기화학적 성능에 미치는 영향

이창우,이미숙,김현수,문성인,Lee, Chang-Woo,Lee, Ml-Sook,Kim, Hyun-Soo,Moon, Seong-In 한국전기전자재료학회 2005 전기전자재료학회논문지 Vol.18 No.8

Spinel $LiMn_2O_4$ has become appealing because manganese is inexpensive and environmentally benign. In general, cathodes for lithium ion batteries include carbon as a conductive agent that provides electron transfer between the active material and the current collector. In this work, we selected Acetylene Black and Super P Black as conductive agents, and then carried out their comparative investigation for the performances of the $Li/LiMn_2O_4$ cells using different conductive agents with different particle size. In addition, their electrochemical impedance characteristic of $Li/Mn_2O_4$ cells using different conductive agents is effectively identified through a.c. impedance technique. As a consequence, $Li/LiMn_2O_4$ cells with Super P Black show better electrochemical performances ascribed to the significant contribution of feasible ionic conduction due to larger particle size than those with Acetylene Black.

의과대학 여학생 증가에 따른 수련교육 변화의 필요성

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 연세대학교 의과대학 2011 의학교육논단 Vol.13 No.2

Women's educational opportunities have been increasing and women's general advancement in higher education is the underlying factor behind the increasing number of female students in medical school. A number of issues affect female students and residents, including the existence of gender bias and sexual harassment, higher stress levels and lower levels of work satisfaction, the lack of role models in academic medicine, and conflict between work and family roles, including challenges surrounding having children. To what extent female and male medical students and residents make different career and life style choices is also an important issue. The shortage of doctors in surgical departments and maldistribution among specialties are of great concern in the health care system and medicine's future. We must prepare to solve these problems. New medical policies and educational approaches are needed for the future.

임상유전학 교육에서 새로운 교과과정 개발의 필요성

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 연세대학교 의과대학 2014 의학교육논단 Vol.16 No.1

It is becoming increasingly important for medical doctors to have a thorough understanding of human genetics and the ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic testing, counseling, and treatment. As genetic engineering and technology evolves, medical doctors will find themselves called in to counsel patients about a rapidly increasing number of diseases for which genetic testing and treatments are available. Medical doctors will need to master a new set of principles and clinical skills. A lack of knowledge about these issues and problems may lead to serious, lifelong or even fatal negative effects on patients. Medical genetics has moved from the study of rare conditions to the illumination of disorders that impact the entire spectrum of medical practice. This study demonstrates several areas in which medical genetics is clearly an important tool in medical practice and the necessity of establishing new curriculum for clinical genetic education in Korea. Medical students nearing graduation may lack genetic knowledge that is essential for daily practice because genetics has little or no place in clinical teaching. Medical schools should make extensive curriculum changes to increase students' awareness of clinical genetics and its ethical implications. The medical school curriculum will need creative new approaches to keeping up with the rapid pace of evolution of clinical genetics.

화학기상응축 공정에서 TiO₂ 나노입자 특성에 미치는 반응온도와 전구체 농도의 영향 - Part I: SMPS를 이용한 실시간 입자특성 평가

이창우,유지훈,임성순,윤성희,이재성,좌용호,Lee, Chang-Woo,Yu, Ji-Hun,Im, Sung-Soon,Yun, Sung-Hee,Lee, Jai-Sung,Choa, Yong-Ho 한국재료학회 2003 한국재료학회지 Vol.13 No.5

Properties of nanoparticles synthesized during gas phase reaction were studied in terms of particle behaviors using real-time particle characterization method. For this study, $TiO_2$ nanoparticles were synthesized in the chemical vapor condensation process(CVC) and their in-situ measurement of particle formation and particle size distribution was performed by scanning mobility particle sizer(SMPS). As a result, particle behaviors in the CVC reactor were affected by both of number concentration and thermal coagulation, simultaneously. Particularly, growth and agglomeration between nanoparticles followed two different ways of dominances from coagulations by increase of number concentration and sintering effect by increased temperature.

광섬유센서를 이용한 대공간 구조물의 상시 모니터링

이창우,이승재,주기수,Lee, Chang-Woo,Lee, Seung-Jae,Ju, Gi-Su 한국공간구조학회 2007 한국공간구조학회지 Vol.7 No.3

본 논문은 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서를 이용한 대공간 구조물의 실시간 모니터링을 설명하였고, 외부 외력 작용시에 대공간 구조물의 요소인 막이나 케이블의 변형을 계측하는데 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서가 매우 적합하다는 점을 검증하고 있다. 이와 함께 대공간 구조물에 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서를 이용하여 변형을 모니터링하는 실험을 실시하였다. 장스팬의 대공간 구조물을 모니터링하기 위하여 많은 요소를 계측할 수 있는 장비가 필요하다. 실험의 결과로 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서는 외력 작용시에 정확한 계측을 보여주었다. 그러므로 대공간 구조물의 변형율을 계산할 수 있고 실시간 모니터링이 가능하다. In this paper, always monitoring system of fiber Bragg Crating(FBG)Sensor is described and FBGs are well suited for measuring the movement in the part of the spatial structure(for example, cable, membrane and so on)under the pressure conditions. In order to measure the movement of long span structure, we need the measurable equipment that takes in many spots to measure. In the result of experiment, the fiber sensors showed good response to the pressure conditions. Therefore, We could calculate the movement of spatial structure and be possible health monitoring of the spatial structure.