Temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia

Lee, Whanhee,Choi, Hayon Michelle,Kim, Dahye,Honda, Yasushi,Guo, Yue-Liang Leon,Kim, Ho Elsevier 2018 Science of the Total Environment Vol.616 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972–2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003–2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972–1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Heat-related mortality has declined for all three countries. </LI> <LI> In Japan, a positive shift of heat extremes was observed during study period. </LI> <LI> The attributable risk fraction (ARF) of heat extremes increased overtime in Japan. </LI> <LI> The ARF heat extremes temporally declined in Korea and Taiwan. </LI> <LI> We suggest that the ARF of heat extremes will not reduce in climate change. </LI> </UL> </P> <P><B>Graphical abstract</B></P> <P>[DISPLAY OMISSION]</P>

환경보건적 요소가 도시 내 폭염 취약성 평가 결과에 미치는 영향 분석

이원정,강재은,김유근,Lee, Won-Jung,Kang, Jae-Eun,Kim, Yoo-Keun 한국환경보건학회 2013 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.39 No.6

Objectives: This analysis seeks to evaluate the impact of environmental health factors (EHF; e.g. hospital beds per capita, employees of medical institutions) on extreme-heat vulnerability assessment in Busan Metropolitan City during 2006-2010. Methods: According to the vulnerability concept suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme-heat vulnerability is comprised of the categories of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity (including EHF). The indexes of the Exposure and Sensitivity categories indicate positive effects, while the Adaptive capacity index indicates a negative effect on extreme-heat vulnerability. Variables of each category were standardized by the re-scaling method, and then each regional relative vulnerability was computed with the vulnerability index calculation formula. Results: The extreme-heat vulnerability index (EVI) excepting EHF was much higher in urban areas than in suburban areas within the metropolitan area. When EHF was considered, the difference in the EVI between the two areas was reduced due to the increase of the Adaptive capacity index in urban areas. The low EVI in suburban areas was induced by a dominant effect of natural environmental factors (e.g. green area) within the Adaptive capacity category. Conclusions: To reduce the vulnerability to extreme heat in urban areas, which were more frequently exposed to extreme heat than others areas, public health and natural environments need to be improved in sensitive areas.

폭염으로 인한 한반도 자연재해 현황

김은별,박종길,김백조,Kim. Eun-Byul,Park. Jong-Kil,Kim. Baek-Jo 한국방재학회 2007 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2007 No.1

Recently, occurrence frequency of natural disasters decrease but scale of damage increase remarkably by the Climate change due to global warming. Especially, extreme heat become more critical weather problem in the Korean Peninsula. But, we don`t have exact threshold about extreme heat. Extreme heat does not classify into natural disaster. Therefore, we have compared death count of the natural disaster with the one of extreme heat at Seoul, Korea. As a result, the number of death by extreme heat don`t smaller than one by the natural disasters and we knew extreme heat have also to consider as natural disaster.

폭염에 의해 인체가 받는 열적스트레스의 실험적 연구

박종길,정우식,김은별,송정희,Park. Jong-Kil,Jung. Woo-Sik,Kim. Eun-Byul,Song. Jeong-Hui 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1

In order to examine the influences by the extreme weather changes on the human physical conditions, we need to undertake human biometeorology research such as the assesment on the extreme heat`s influences on human health. Most of the preceding studied have been found to be focused on the influences by extreme heat on the human body, they used statistics on the daily mortality. But thismethod estimate an indirectly influences by extreme heat on the human body. So, to be able to predict the possible directly influences by the extreme heat on the physical conditions. We measure thermal stress by extreme heat.

폭염시기 인명 피해 예방을 위한 폭염특보기준 설정에 관한 연구

박종길,정우식,김은별,송정희,Park. Jong-Kil,Jung. Woo-Sik,Kim. Eun-Byul,Song. Jeong-Hui 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1

Recently, occurrence frequency of natural disaster decrease but scale of damage increase remarkably by the Climate change due to global warming. Especially, extreme heat become more critical wether problem in the Korean Peninsula. But, we don`t have exact threshold about extreme heat. Therefore, to assess the influences by the extreme heat on personal injury, we analyzed statistics on the causes of the daily mortality. And we developed a threshold for extreme heat health watch warning system.

고혈압환자의 폭염 적응력 증진을 위한 프로그램 효과

정성희,김남순,채수미,이은주 기초간호학회 2014 Journal of korean biological nursing science Vol.16 No.3

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the effects of an extreme heat Adaptation Program on the blood pressure, stress response, self-efficacy, and knowledge of management of hypertension and extreme heat of patients who suffered from hypertension. Methods: A quasi-experimental study with a non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used. The data collection period was between July 2 and August 20, 2012. Thirty-seven patients participated in the study (18 in the experimental group and 19 in the control group). Data were analyzed using χ²-test, t-test, and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients with SPSS/WIN 19.0. Results: Patients who participated in the program showed statistically significant improvements in systolic blood pressure (SBP), self-efficacy, and knowledge of management of hypertension and extreme heat. Conclusion: The results indicate that this extreme heat adaptation program can be utilized for patients suffering from hypertension in order to reduce their SBP and to increase self-efficacy and knowledge of management of hypertension and extreme heat. Therefore, it is recommended that this program be used for elderly patients suffering from chronic disease.

Future changes due to model biases in probabilities of extreme temperatures over East Asia using CMIP5 data

Seo, Ye‐,Won,Yun, Kyung‐,Sook,Lee, June‐,Yi,Lee, Yang‐,Won,Ha, Kyung‐,Ja,Jhun, Jong‐,Ghap John Wiley Sons, Ltd 2018 International journal of climatology Vol.38 No.3

<P><B>ABSTRACT</B></P><P>This study examines the performances of 31 global climate models in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) in terms of probability density functions (PDFs) for maximum (<I>T</I>max) and minimum (<I>T</I>min) air temperatures over East Asia in the present and CMIP5‐model projected future changes. In general, most of models well reproduce warm‐season peak for both <I>T</I>max and <I>T</I>min but exhibit large inter‐model spread for simulating cold‐season peak, especially for <I>T</I>min. Minimum values of <I>T</I>min and <I>T</I>max are more strongly dependent upon model selection than maximum values of them. For the last 25 years of the 21st century, under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, models project shifts toward warmer values in the PDFs of <I>T</I>max and <I>T</I>min and broadening in the shape of PDFs. Models with warm biases in PDFs tend to show larger shifts in temperature changes, but seasonal mean temperature biases do not affect to future changes. It is notable that the broadening of PDFs in the future influences temperature extreme events. Using the changes in probabilities of heat waves as one of extreme temperature events by comparing multi‐model ensemble (MME) and models with good performance of PDFs, this study shows that MME tends to overestimate its duration. Our findings suggest that future changes in temperature extremes projected by models are strongly come from the biases detected in those models when simulating present extreme temperature PDFs. Therefore, correcting the intrinsic biases of models rather than seasonal mean correction is necessary to reduce the uncertainties in predicting future changes in temperature extremes.</P>

The Effects of Temperature on Heat-related Illness According to the Characteristics of Patients During the Summer of 2012 in the Republic of Korea

Na, Wonwoong,Jang, Jae-Yeon,Lee, Kyung Eun,Kim, Hyunyoung,Jun, Byungyool,Kwon, Jun-Wook,Jo, Soo-Nam The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine 2013 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.46 No.1

Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between heat-related illnesses developed in the summer of 2012 and temperature. Methods: The study analyzed data generated by a heat wave surveillance system operated by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the summer of 2012. The daily maximum temperature, average temperature, and maximum heat index were compared to identify the most suitable index for this study. A piecewise linear model was used to identify the threshold temperature and the relative risk (RR) above the threshold temperature according to patient characteristics and region. Results: The total number of patients during the 3 months was 975. Of the three temperature indicators, the daily maximum temperature showed the best goodness of fit with the model. The RR of the total patient incidence was 1.691 (1.641 to 1.743) per $1^{\circ}C$ after $31.2^{\circ}C$. The RR above the threshold temperature of women (1.822, 1.716 to 1.934) was greater than that of men (1.643, 1.587 to 1.701). The threshold temperature was the lowest in the age group of 20 to 64 ($30.4^{\circ}C$), and the RR was the highest in the ${\geq}65$ age group (1.863, 1.755 to 1.978). The threshold temperature of the provinces ($30.5^{\circ}C$) was lower than that of the metropolitan cities ($32.2^{\circ}C$). Metropolitan cities at higher latitudes had a greater RR than other cities at lower latitudes. Conclusions: The influences of temperature on heat-related illnesses vary according to gender, age, and region. A surveillance system and public health program should reflect these factors in their implementation.

The Effects of Temperature on Heat-related Illness According to the Characteristics of Patients During the Summer of 2012 in the Republic of Korea

나원웅,장재연,이경은,김현영,전병율,권준욱,조수남 대한예방의학회 2013 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.46 No.1

Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between heat-related illnesses developed in the summer of 2012and temperature. Methods: The study analyzed data generated by a heat wave surveillance system operated by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the summer of 2012. The daily maximum temperature, average temperature, and maximum heat index were compared to identify the most suitable index for this study. A piecewise linear model was used to identify the threshold temperature and the relative risk (RR) above the threshold temperature according to patient characteristics and region. Results: The total number of patients during the 3 months was 975. Of the three temperature indicators, the daily maximum temperature showed the best goodness of fit with the model. The RR of the total patient incidence was 1.691 (1.641 to 1.743) per 1°C after 31.2°C. The RR above the threshold temperature of women (1.822, 1.716 to 1.934) was greater than that of men (1.643, 1.587 to 1.701). The threshold temperature was the lowest in the age group of 20 to 64 (30.4°C), and the RR was the highest in the ≥65 age group (1.863, 1.755 to 1.978). The threshold temperature of the provinces (30.5°C) was lower than that of the metropolitan cities (32.2°C). Metropolitan cities at higher latitudes had a greater RR than other cities at lower latitudes. Conclusions: The influences of temperature on heat-related illnesses vary according to gender, age, and region. A surveillance system and public health program should reflect these factors in their implementation.

Estimation of Expected Temperature Using Heat Balance Model and Observation Data

김은별,박종길,정우식 한국대기환경학회 2015 Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment (AJAE) Vol.9 No.3

This study considers mean skin temperature to calculate expected temperature using the new heat balance model because the skin temperature is the most important element affecting the heat balance outdoors. For this, we measured the skin temperature in high temperature condition of Korea and applied it to calculate the expected temperature. The calculated expected temperature is compared with the result calculated using previous models which use the estimated mean skin temperature by considering metabolic rate only. Results show that the expected temperatures are higher when measured mean skin temperature is applied to the model, compared to the expected temperature calculated by applying mean skin temperature data calculated using metabolic rate like previous models. The observed mean skin temperature was more suitable for outside conditions and expected temperature is underestimated when mean skin temperature calculated by the equation using metabolic rate is used. The model proposed in this study has a few limitations yet, but it can be applied in various ways to facilitate practical responses to extreme heat.