전력시스템 해석과 교육을 위한 정보시각화 프로그램 개발 - Part II: 전력계통 해석 기능

김병호,홍민,김규호,김홍래 대한전기학회 2020 전기학회논문지 Vol.69 No.9

As modern power system has grown rapidly and becomes complex, it is no longer possible to operate and develop the power systems without the help of a computer. By solving the computational problems required for planning, design and operation of the power system using a computer, it is possible to increase the quality of power system analysis, improve the efficiency of the power system operation, and increase the reliability of the power system. EMS (energy management system) includes many power system analysis applications, such as state estimation, power flow, stability analysis, fault analysis, economic dispatch and contingency analysis, which can analyze information for monitoring and control of the power system. In case of state estimation and power flow, their role is very important as application programs that are the basis of power system analysis. Commercial tools for power system analysis provide various visualization techniques for the expression of power system information and applications for grid analysis, but they do not usually include state estimation function as a basic application for power system analysis performed in a real-time environment. In addition, the cost of purchasing and maintaining commercial tools is very expensive. Therefore, it is necessary to use an educational application program that can be easily accessed and used by a user using computer in the educational stage for power system analysis. In this paper, we develop and introduce a program for power system analysis and education with information visualization function.

환경·경제 통합분석을 위한 환경가치 종합연구 : 통합분석 시스템 구축

안소은,이홍림,박윤선,오치옥,이재혁,권영한,김현노,최새미 한국환경연구원 2021 사업보고서 Vol.2021 No.-

Ⅰ. 서 론 1. 연구배경 및 목적 □ 환경정책 및 개발사업 타당성 평가를 위한 절차는 일반적으로 분석범위 설정, 환경영향 정량화, 환경서비스 가치추정(화폐화), 종합분석의 순서로 진행됨 ○ 분석범위 설정: 환경영향의 확인 및 목록화, 영향의 시간적·공간적 영향범위 검토 등 ○ 환경영향 정량화: 영향의 물리적 크기 또는 정도 측정 ○ 가치추정: 정량화된 환경영향의 측정척도를 고려한 적절한 방법론 선택 및 화폐화 ○ 종합분석: 결과 및 불확실성 요인 검토, 정량적 정성적 정보를 반영한 종합평가 □ 환경가치를 고려한 합리적인 의사결정을 지원하기 위하여, 한국환경연구원(KEI)은 환경서비스의 ‘화폐화 가치’에 대한 기초정보를 제공하도록 2011년 환경가치종합정보 시스템(EVIS 1.0)을 오픈함 □ 본 연구는 환경가치 DB를 업데이트하고, 환경가치 정보를 경로분석에 근거한 물리적 환경영향 사례분석 결과와 연계하여 EVIS(1.0)을 환경·경제 통합분석을 지원하는 플랫폼으로 확장하는 것을 목적으로 함 2. 단계별·부문별·연차별 연구내용 및 범위 □ 본 연구는 방대한 연구범위를 고려하여 3단계 사업으로 기획됨 ○ 1단계(2016~2018년): 환경영향 정량화와 환경서비스의 단위가치 연계를 위한 시스템 기반 구축 - 부문별 통합분석 사례연구를 진행하여, 경로분석과 가치추정의 연계 가능성 제고 ○ 2단계(2019~2021년): 환경·경제 통합분석 사례연구 경험을 바탕으로 시스템의 설계도를 제시하는 한편 일부 서비스에 대한 통합분석 지원 툴킷 구축 ○ 3단계(2022~2024년): 통합분석 시스템을 고도화하는 한편 국가 평가제도, 예를 들면 전략환경평가, 규제영향분석, 예비타당성조사를 지원할 수 있는 방안을 모색하여 정책 활용도 제고 □ 총괄, 생태계 평가 및 가치추정, 건강영향 평가 및 가치추정, 국민환경의식조사 4개 부문으로 구분하여 연구 진행 ○ 총괄: 부문별 사례연구 결과를 기반으로 통합분석 시스템 설계와 환경가치 DB 개선 (2018년 EVIS 2.0 오픈 후 연구성과를 지속적으로 반영) ○ 생태계 부문: 탄소흡수·저장, 물(담수) 공급, 오염물질 정화, 생태계 서식처질을 대상으로 통합분석 사례연구 진행 ○ 건강 부문: 대기오염, 화학물질(수은/납) 건강영향을 대상으로 통합분석 사례연구 진행 ○ 국민환경의식조사: 국민환경의식 관련 설문 수행(매년) 및 분석 결과 제시 3. 2021년도 연구내용 및 보고서 구성 □ 과제 종료시점이 2023년에서 2022년으로 수정됨에 따라 올해(2021년)부터 ‘시스템 고도화 및 정책 활용도 제고’에 초점을 맞춰 연구 진행 ○ 2016~2020년에 수행한 생태계 및 건강 부문 연구 결과를 종합검토하고 정책평가를 지원하는 통합분석 툴킷 개선에 반영 - 총괄: 환경가치 선행연구 DB 외 EVIS(2.0)의 통합분석 툴킷 서비스 강화 - 생태계 부문: 기 구축된 탄소흡수·저장 툴킷에 시간적·공간적 분석단위 다양화 및 입력 파라미터 업데이트, 물(담수) 공급 통합분석 툴킷 추가 예정 - 건강 부문: PM_2.5 조기사망 피해비용 산정 툴킷을 정비할 예정이며, 화학물질(수은, 납)로 인한 건강영향 통합분석 툴킷 구축 및 서비스 제공 □ 방대한 연구의 가독성을 높이기 위해 연구내용을 기준으로 3권의 보고서로 구분하여 발간함 ○ 1권: 환경가치 DB 업데이트 및 대푯값 도출, 통합분석 툴킷 구축 관련 내용 제시 ○ 2권: 현재 EVIS 내 통합분석 툴킷의 근거가 되는 부문별 통합분석 사례연구 내용 제시 ○ 별책부록(3권): 국민환경의식조사 설문지 및 주요 결과 제시 Ⅱ. 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS) 1. 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS) 구축 연혁 □ 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS)은 환경가치에 대한 기초정보와 의사결정 지원을 위한 통합분석 평가도구 제공을 목적으로 한국환경연구원(KEI)이 개발하여 운영 중인 온라인 시스템임 ○ EVIS(1.0): ‘환경가치 DB 구축 및 원단위 추정(2009~2011년)’ 연구의 결과물로, 국내 환경가치 선행연구 정보를 요약 제공하는 DB를 구축하여 제공(2011년 서비스 시작) ○ EVIS(2.0): 본 연구의 성과를 바탕으로, 단순히 환경서비스의 화폐화 가치 정보 제공 기능을 넘어서 정책·사업 평가 시 환경편익·비용을 반영하여 의사결정을 지원할 수 있도록 역할 확장(2018년에 개편) - 매년 환경가치 DB 업데이트 진행 - 2019년부터 생태계 및 건강 부문 통합분석 사례의 툴킷화 진행 2. 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS) 구성요소 □ EVIS(2.0)은 크게 환경 단위가치 DB, 통합분석 지원 툴킷의 두 가지 요소로 구성됨 ○ 환경 단위가치 DB - 국내 선행연구에 제시된 환경서비스 단위가치(비용)와 그 관련 정보를 체계적으로 요약 정리하여 제공 - EVIS(1.0)에서 제공하던 자료를 환경경제 통합분석 틀과 단위가치 DB의 구조적인 호환성이 충족되도록 EVIS(2.0)으로 개편함으로써, EVIS의 환경 단위가치 DB가 의사결정을 위한 환경경제 통합분석을 효율적으로 지원하도록 구성 ○ 환경·경제 통합분석 툴킷 - 사용자가 환경가치 평가를 원하는 부문을 선택하고 필요정보를 입력하면 결과를 얻을 수 있도록 하는 환경경제 통합분석 도구 - 부문별 통합분석 툴킷에 내장된 기본값으로는 2016년부터 본 과제에서 진행한 생태계 및 건강 주요 부문의 환경영향 정량화, 가치평가(화폐화)와 같은 통합분석 사례연구 결과가 활용됨 - 2021년 말 현재 생태계 유형별 탄소흡수·저장량 평가, 오염물질별·오염원별 PM_2.5 조기사망 피해비용 산정, 수은으로 인한 태아 IQ 저하 피해비용 산정을 위한 툴킷 구축이 완료됨 Ⅲ. 환경경제 통합분석 지원을 위한 단위가치 DB 1. 생태계·생태계서비스 유형별 단위가치 □ 환경 단위가치 DB 생태계 부문 수록연구 현황 ○ 생태계 부문은 산림, 담수, 해안/연안, 습지, 경작지, 도시생태계, 해양, 초지, 기타의 9가지 중분류로 구분됨 - DB에서 제공하는 생태계 부문은 선행연구 315개, 가치추정치 1,438개임 ㆍ 생태계 유형별로는 산림(452개), 담수(367개), 해안/연안(228개), 습지(190개) 순으로 많은 가치추정치 정보가 수록됨 ㆍ 생태계서비스별로는 휴양·레저·경관미, 보전가치에 관련 정보가 다수 포함됨 2. 건강영향 유형별 단위가치 □ 환경 단위가치 DB 건강 부문 수록연구 현황 ○ 건강 부문은 대기, 실내공기, 물, 토양, 소음·진동, 악취, 기후변화, 기타의 8가지 중분류로 구분됨 - 건강 부문의 선행연구는 총 72편이며, 이로부터 도출된 가치추정치는 363개임 ㆍ 대부분 대기(air) 관련 연구이고, 물이나 소음·진동 관련 연구도 비교적 높은 비중을 차지함 3. 환경가치 선행연구 메타정보 □ 본 연구에서는 환경 단위가치 DB에 수록된 정보를 활용하여 부문별 주요 단위가치 값을 제시하고자 함 ○ 다수의 가치추정치 값을 합산·비교해야 하고, 단위와 기준연도를 통일하는 추가 작업이 필요함 - 유형이나 평가하는 세부 환경서비스에 따라 다양한 추정 방식, 단위가 사용되고 있어 통일된 단위로 값을 도출하기 어려움 - 현재까지 환경 단위가치 DB 보유자료 중 비중이 높은 생태계 및 건강 부문의 일부 항목에 대해서 대푯값을 도출하고자 함 □ 생태계 부문 선행연구 메타정보 ○ 생태계 부문에서 단위가치는 시장이 존재하는 경우(가격기반)와 존재하지 않는 경우 (공급기반, 수요기반)로 구분됨 - 시장이 존재할 경우 시장가격을 단위가치로 활용 가능함 ㆍ 대표적으로 탄소배출권 시장의 탄소 가격, 갯벌에서 제공하는 수산물 생산가치 등이 있음 - 시장이 존재하지 않는 경우 소비자에게 서비스를 공급받기 위한 지불의사액을 직접 질문하거나(진술선호법), 여러 가지 상황에서 개인의 선택을 바탕으로 선호체계를 파악하는(현시선호법) 수요기반 접근법을 활용할 수 있음 - 수요기반 접근법이 어려울 경우 생태계서비스와 유사한 기능 공급을 위해 필요한 공급비용을 활용할 수 있음 ㆍ 하·폐수 처리장의 수질정화를 위한 단위비용 등 ○ 측정단위를 통일하여 비교 가능한 형태로 표준화해야 함 - 생태계 부문의 표준화된 단위가치는 원/방문·인, 원/연/ha, 원/연/가구, 원/가구의 4개 유형으로 제시함 ○ 비교적 단위가치 자료가 많이 축적된 생태계서비스인 ‘수질정화, ’휴양·레저·경관미‘, ’보전가치‘에 대한 대표 단위가치를 생태계 유형별로 정리함 - 생태계 부문의 표준화된 단위가치는 원/방문·인, 원/연/ha, 원/연/가구, 원/가구 4개 유형으로 제시함 □ 건강 부문 선행연구 메타정보 ○ 건강 부문의 단위가치 또한 앞서 생태계 부문에서의 표준화 방식과 동일하게 진행하였고, 입원 및 외래 환자의 질병 비용에 대한 단위가치로 원/발병(입원), 원/발병(외래) 형태가 추가됨 ○ 건강 부문에서 선행연구는 대기, 소음 부문에 집중되어 있어 두 가지 분류에 대해서만 대푯값 산정을 진행함 - 오염물질(오존, 먼지, 미세먼지 등), 추정기법에 따라 가치추정치에도 큰 차이가 나타남 Ⅳ. 환경경제 통합분석 툴킷 구축 1. 통합분석 개념과 절차 □ 환경·경제 통합분석은 인간 활동-환경질 변화-수용체(생태계, 인간 건강 등)의 영향경로를 추적하여 이를 물리적으로 평가하고, 이를 인간 활동과 직접적으로 연계시킨다는 점에서 영향경로분석법(IPA)에 기반을 둠 □ 본 연구에서는 통합분석 절차를 ① 분석범위 설정, ② 환경영향 정량화, ③ 가치추정(화폐화)로 일반화하고, 주요 부문의 평가사례를 기반으로 환경경제 통합분석 툴킷을 구축함 ○ 부문별 연구가 개별적인 사례로 활용되는 것이 아니라 의사결정을 돕는 하나의 시스템으로 자리 잡을 수 있도록 통합분석 개념과 평가절차를 체계화하였음 2. 생태계서비스: 탄소흡수·저장 통합분석 툴킷 □ 생태계 탄소흡수·저장 통합분석 툴킷은 2019년부터 EVIS에서 서비스를 제공하였으며, 사용자가 평가를 원하는 세부 생태계서비스(탄소흡수, 탄소저장)를 선택하고 환경 영향 정량화에 사용되는 계수와 가치평가에 사용되는 단위가치를 적용하면 가치평가 결과를 확인할 수 있도록 설계됨 □ 2021년도에는 생태계 탄소흡수·저장 통합분석 툴킷의 탄소 부문 단위가치 입력 프로세스를 대폭 개편함(가격자료 선택 시 탄소시장 및 거래시점 선택 가능). 또한 시계열에 따라 우리나라 생태계가 제공하는 탄소흡수·저장서비스 변화를 살펴볼 수 있도록 시간적 분석범위를 확장하였음(2019년 토지피복도 추가 적용) □ 생태계 탄소흡수·저장 통합분석 툴킷을 이용하면 우리나라 지역별 누적탄소저장량, 연간탄소흡수량을 살펴볼 수 있을 뿐 아니라 이를 경제적 가치로 환산한 가치평가 결과도 살펴볼 수 있음 ○ 평가하고자 하는 생태계서비스 및 생태계 유형과 평가를 원하는 기준 시점 및 공간을 선택한 다음, 이를 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 관련 모델링계수(탄소흡수계수 혹은 탄소저장계수)와 단위가치를 선택(혹은 직접 입력)하면 환경영향 정량화 결과(탄소흡수 및 저장량)와 그 경제적 가치를 확인할 수 있음 3. 생태계서비스: 물(담수) 공급 통합분석 툴킷 □ 생태계 물(담수) 공급 통합분석 툴킷은 생태계가 제공하는 물 공급량과 가치를 정량적으로 평가하는 도구이며, 2022년부터 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS) 내에서 평가서비스를 제공하기 위해 관련 작업 진행 중 ○ 본 연구의 2017년 사례연구인 ‘권역별 수량 모델링’과 ‘권역별 수량공급 가치추정’ 연구 결과를 기반으로 툴킷 구축 ○ 사용자가 평가를 원하는 세부 생태계서비스(생활/공업/농업용수 공급, 생태계 잔존량)를 선택하고 환경영향 정량화에 사용되는 계수와 가치평가에 사용되는 단위가치를 입력하면 평가 결과를 도출할 수 있도록 구성 4. 건강영향: 대기오염 통합분석 툴킷 □ 대기오염 건강영향 통합분석 툴킷은 2020년부터 EVIS에서 서비스를 제공하였으며, 주요 대기오염물질(NOx, SO₂, PM_2.5, NH₃, VOC) 배출로 인한 초미세먼지(PM_2.5) 발생이 조기사망에 미치는 영향과 그 피해비용 평가를 지원하는 툴킷임 ○ PM_2.5을 유발하는 다양한 대기오염물질별 피해를 구분하여 평가할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 오염원 유형별(점오염원, 선오염원, 면오염원) 피해비용을 구분하여 평가할 수 있다는 특징이 있음 □ 평가대상인 대기오염물질에 대해 해당 오염물질의 영향경로인 배출-확산-오염물질 농도-건강영향-경제적 피해 단계에 따른 입력자료를 선택할 수 있도록 툴킷 구성 ○ 평가대상 오염물질 및 오염원 유형, 분석지역을 선택한 후, 오염물질이 전환 및 확산되어 초미세먼지 농도를 결정하는 전환율 값과 건강영향 평가를 위한 농도-반응계수를 입력하고 마지막으로 사망위험감소가치(VSL)와 같은 단위가치를 입력 ○ 최종 결과인 ‘대기오염물질 배출에 따른 연간 피해비용’ 결과 외에도, 중간 결과인 ‘대기오염물질 배출에 따른 연간 조기사망자 수’에 대한 세부 결과를 확인할 수 있음 5. 건강영향: 화학물질 통합분석 툴킷 □ 화학물질 등 환경 유해인자가 매체를 통해 수용체 건강에 영향을 미치고, 이로 인해 사회에 미치는 전체 피해비용 추정치를 제공하고자 함 □ 이번 연도(2021년)에서는 화학물질 중 수은을 대상으로 통합분석 툴킷을 구축하였고, 분석절차는 다른 통합분석 툴킷과 마찬가지로 분석범위 설정, 환경영향 정량화, 피해비용 추정(화폐화) 순의 단계를 따름 □ 수은 건강영향 통합분석 툴킷 ○ 수은으로 인한 건강영향 종결점은 IQ 저하, 경미한 지적 장애(MMR), 심혈관계 질환으로 인한 조기사망이 있음 ○ 종결점에 따라 적용할 파라미터가 다르고, 종결점별 피해액을 도출하더라도 해당 피해액의 총합이 수은이라는 화학물질의 전체 피해비용을 의미하지 않음 ○ 수은-IQ 저하 - 수은이 IQ 저하에 미치는 건강영향 경로는 크게 산모 수은 노출→산모 혈중 수은 농도 증가→태아 IQ 저하→IQ 하락으로 인한 소득 피해→전체 피해액 산정으로 나타남 ㆍ 통합분석 툴킷에서는 선행연구를 바탕으로 한 파라미터의 기본값을 제시하고 있으므로, 기본값을 활용하거나 사용자가 직접 입력할 수 있음 ㆍ 수은-IQ 저하에서 사용자가 선택/입력할 수 있는 파라미터는 가임기 여성 모발 중 수은 농도, 용량반응함수 기울기 파라미터, 신생아 인구 수, IQ 단위당 가치임 ○ 수은-경미한 지적 장애(MMR) - 수은이 경미한 지적 장애를 유발하는 건강영향 경로는 산모 수은 노출→산모 혈중수은 농도 증가→태아 MMR 발생→건강 피해비용(DALYs)→전체 피해액 산정으로 나타남 ㆍ 수은-경미한 지적 장애에서 사용자가 선택/입력할 수 있는 파라미터는 가임기 여성 모발 중 수은 농도, 장애가중치 파라미터, 성별 신생아 수, 해당 손실에 대한 단위가치임 ㆍ 장애 가중치의 경우 WHO(2008)의 수은 피해비용 산정 시트값을 기본값으로 활용하였고, MMR의 장애보정손실연수(DALYs)는 연간사망위험감소가치(VOLY)로 환산된 값을 제시함 ○ 수은-심혈관계 조기사망 - 수은이 심혈관계 조기사망에 미치는 건강영향 경로는 수은 노출→심혈관계 조기사망→건강 피해비용(VSL 적용)→전체 피해액 산정으로 나타남 ㆍ 수은-심혈관계 조기사망에서 사용자가 선택/입력할 수 있는 파라미터는 40~59세 수은 노출에 대한 상대위험도(RR), 40~59세 성인 남성 인구 수, 40~59세 성인 남성 심혈관계 사망자 수, 사망위험감소가치(VSL)임 Ⅴ. 요약 및 향후 계획 □ 2022~2023년은 본 연구의 3단계 사업기간에 해당하며, 환경경제 통합분석 시스템을 고도화하고 정책 활용도를 제고하는 데 초점을 맞추어 연구를 진행할 예정임 ○ 기존 연구내용을 업데이트하고, 이를 실질적으로 정책·사업평가에 활용할 수 있도록 EVIS(2.0)을 고도화하는 것을 목적으로 함 □ 3단계 사업에서는 주요 평가제도인 전략환경평가, 규제영향분석, 예비타당성조사 제도를 검토하고, EVIS의 환경편익/비용 정보나 통합분석 툴킷을 제도에 적용할 수 있는 방안을 제시할 예정임 Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Background and purpose of research □ The feasibility evaluation of environmental policies and development projects is generally conducted in the following order: setting the scope of analysis, quantification of environmental impact, valuation (monetization) of environmental services, and conducting an integrated assessment. ○ Setting the scope of analysis: Identifying and cataloging environmental impacts, reviewing temporal and spatial ranges of impacts, etc. ○ Quantification of environmental impact: Measuring the physical scale or degree of impact ○ Valuation: Selecting an appropriate methodology and monetizing, taking into account the quantified/measured scale of environmental impact ○ Integrated assessment: Reviewing results and uncertainty factors, and carrying out comprehensive evaluation reflecting quantitative and qualitative information □ To support rational decision-making in consideration of environmental values, the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) launched the Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS 1.0) in 2011 to provide basic information on the ‘monetized value’ of environmental services. □ The purpose of this study is to update the environmental value database and expand EVIS(1.0) to a platform that supports integrated environmental and economic analysis, by linking environmental value information with the case analyses of physical environmental impacts based on pathway analysis. 2. Research contents and scope by stage, sector, and year □ This study was planned as a three-stage project, considering the vast scope of research. ○ Stage 1 (2016-2018): Establishing a foundational system for quantifying the environmental impact and linking unit values of environmental services - Conducting case studies of integrated assessment by sector to enhance the possibility of linking pathway analysis and valuation ○ Stage 2 (2019-2021): Presenting the system blueprint of the system based on the case studies of integrated environmental and economic analysis, and building an integrated analysis support toolkit for some services ○ Stage 3 (2022-2024): Upgrading the integrated analysis system, on one hand, and Improving its efficiency in policy making by seeking ways to support the national assessment system such as strategic environment evaluation, regulatory impact analysis, and preliminary feasibility study □ The research was conducted in four categories: overview, ecosystem evaluation and valuation, health impact evaluation and valuation, and survey on public attitudes towards the environment. ○ Overview: Designing an integrated analysis system and improving the environmental value DB based on the results of case studies by sector (Continuously reflecting research results since the opening of EVIS 2.0 in 2018) ○ Ecosystem sector: Conducting case studies of integrated analysis on carbon absorption and storage, water (freshwater) supply, pollutant purification, and ecosystem habitat quality ○ Health sector: Conducting case studies of integrated analysis on health effects of air pollution and chemicals (mercury/lead) ○ Public attitudes towards the environment: Conducting a survey (every year) on national environmental awareness, and presenting the analyzed results 3. 2021 research content and the structure of the report □ As the completion date of the project has been advanced from 2023 to 2022, research has been conducted focusing on ‘system advancement and enhancing utilization in policy making’ from this year (2021). ○ Conducted a comprehensive review of the research results in the ecosystem and health sectors conducted in 2016-2020, and reflected the outcomes in improving the integrated analysis toolkit that supports policy evaluation - Overview: Reinforcement of the integrated analysis toolkit service of EVIS (2.0), in addition to the DB of preceding research on environmental value - Ecosystem sector: Diversifying temporal and spatial analysis units and updating input parameters for the established carbon absorption and storage toolkit; a water (freshwater) supply integrated analysis toolkit will be added. - Health sector: The damage cost calculation toolkit of premature death by PM_2.5 will be overhauled, and an integrated analysis toolkit for health effects of chemicals (mercury, lead) will be established and serviced. □ The report is published in three volumes based on the contents to enhance the readability. ○ Volume 1: Presenting content related to the DB update and deriving representative values, and the establishment of an integrated analysis toolkit ○ Volume 2: Presenting case studies by sector that provide the basis for the integrated analysis toolkit in the current EVIS ○ Supplementary volume (Volume 3): Presenting the survey results of the public attitudes towards the environment Ⅱ. Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) 1. History of the Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) □ The Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) is an online system developed and operated by the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) in order to provide basic information on environmental values and to support decision-making through an integrated analysis and evaluation tool. ○ EVIS (1.0): As a result of the research on ‘Construction of Environmental Valuation On-line Database and Analysis of Empirical Valuation Studies I ‘(2009~2011), a DB that summarizes information on preceding research of environmental value in Korea was established (service started in 2011). ○ EVIS (2.0): Based on the results of this study, the role of the System was expanded so that it could support decision-making by reflecting environmental benefits and costs in policy and business evaluation, beyond the simple provision of information on the monetary value of environmental services (reorganized in 2018). - From 2019, the cases of integrated analyses in the ecosystem and health sectors have been incorporated into a toolkit. - The environmental value DB is updated annually 2. Components of the Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) □ EVIS (2.0) is largely composed of two elements: an environmental unit value DB and an integrated analysis support toolkit. ○ Environment unit value DB - Provides a systematic summary of the unit value (cost) of environmental services and related information presented in preceding domestic studies - By reorganizing the data provided in EVIS (1.0) so that it can satisfy the compatibility of the integrated environmental and economic analysis of EVIS (2.0), EVIS’ environmental unit value DB is structured to efficiently support decision-making. ○ Integrated Environmental and Economic Analysis Toolkit - An integrated environmental and economic analysis tool that allows users to obtain results by selecting a sector and inputting necessary information for environmental value evaluation - The results of integrated analysis case studies, that were conducted since 2016 within the project’s framework, were used as the default value built into the toolkit for each sector; such as quantification of environmental impacts and valuation (monetization) of major sectors of ecosystem and health. - As of the end of 2021, the toolkits are completed for; evaluating carbon absorption and storage by ecosystem type, estimating the damage cost of premature death by PM_2.5, and estimating the cost of damage to intelligence of babies, a baby’s IQ due to mercury. Ⅲ. Unit Value DB to Support Integrated Environmental and Economic Analysis 1. Unit value by type of ecosystem and ecosystem service □ Status of Environment Unit Value DB for Ecosystem sector ○ The ecosystem sector is divided into nine major categories: forest, freshwater, coast/coastal (zone), wetland, arable land, urban ecosystem, ocean, grassland, and others. - The DB provides 315 preceding studies and 1,438 value estimates for the ecosystem sector. ㆍ By ecosystem type, ‘forests’ (452) had the highest number of value estimations, followed by freshwater (367), coast/coastal (zone) (228), and wetlands (190). ㆍ By ecosystem service, a large amount of estimations are presented relating to recreation, leisure, scenic beauty, and conservation value. 2. Unit value by type of health impact □ Status of environment unit value DB for health sector ○ The health sector is divided into eight major categories: air, indoor air, water, soil, noise and vibration, odor, climate change, and others. - The DB contains a total of 72 preceding studies in the health sector, and 363 value estimates were derived from them. ㆍ Most studies are related to air, and studies related to water and noise/vibration account for a relatively high proportion. 3. Meta-information of preceding research on environmental value □ This study aims to present the main unit values for each sector, using the information contained in the environmental unit value DB. ○ It requires a process of summing up and comparing multiple value estimates, and additional work to unify the units and the base year. - It is difficult to derive a value in a unified unit because various estimation methods and units are used depending on the type or specific environmental service that is to be evaluated. - This study aims to derive representative values for some items in the ecosystem and health sectors, which have a high proportion of data in the environmental unit value DB. □ Meta-information of preceding research in the ecosystem sector ○ In the ecosystem sector, unit value is divided into cases where a market exists (price-based) and where it does not exist (supply-based, demandbased). - If a market exists, the market price can be used as a unit value. ㆍ Typically, there are carbon prices in the carbon credit market and the production value of marine products from tidal flats. - When a market does not exist, a demand-based approach can be utilized such as directly asking consumers about the amount they are willing to pay to receive a service (stated preference method), or identifying a preference system based on individual choices in various situations (revealed preference method). - If a demand-based approach is difficult to apply, the cost of supply required to supply functions similar to ecosystem services can be utilized. ㆍ Unit cost for water purification in sewage and wastewater treatment plants, etc. ○ Units of measurement should be unified and standardized in a comparable form. - The standardized unit value of the ecosystem is presented in four types: KRW/visitor (person), KRW/year/ha, KRW/year/household, and KRW/ household. ○ The representative unit values for “water purification”, “recreation/leisure /landscape beauty”, and “conservation value”, which are ecosystem services with relatively large amounts of unit value data, are organized by type of ecosystem. - The standardized unit value of the ecosystem is presented in four types: KRW/visitor (person), KRW/year/ha, KRW/year/household, and KRW/household. □ Meta-information of preceding research in the health sector ○ The standardization of the unit value in the health sector was also carried out in the same manner as in the ecosystem sector, with the addition of KRW/onset (of disease, hospitalization) and KRW/onset (of disease, outpatient) as unit values for hospitalization and outpatient disease costs. ○ In the health sector, prior research is focused on the air and noise, so representative values are calculated for those two categories. - Depending on the pollutants (ozone, dust, fine dust, etc) and estimation techniques, a significant difference exists in the value estimation. IV. Establishment of Integrated Environmental and Economic Analysis Toolkit 1. Concept and procedure of integrated analysis □ Integrated environmental and economic analysis is based on the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA), which tracks the path of impact of human activity-changes in environmental quality-receptor (ecosystem, human health, etc) and directly links it to human activity. □ In this study, the procedure of integrated analysis was generalized to ① setting the scope of analysis, ② quantifying environmental impact, and ③ valuation (monetization), and an integrated environmental and economic analysis toolkit was established based on evaluation cases in major sectors. ○ The concept and procedure of integrated analysis have been systematized so that individual research studies and studies by sector can constitute a system that helps decision-making, rather than being utilized for individual cases. 2. Ecosystem service: integrated analysis toolkit for carbon absorption /storage □ The integrated analysis toolkit for ecosystem carbon absorption/storage has been provided by EVIS since 2019, which was designed to allow users to validate valuation results by selecting the service to evaluate (carbon absorption, carbon storage) and applying the coefficient for quantification of environmental impact as well as the unit value used for valuation. □ In 2021, the unit value input process of the carbon sector in the integrated analysis toolkit for carbon absorption/storage in the ecosystem has been significantly reorganized (the carbon market and transaction time can be selected when selecting price data). In addition, the scope of temporal analysis has been expanded to examine changes in the carbon absorption/ storage service provided by the ecosystems in Korea according to the time series (additional application of land cover map in 2019). □ Using the integrated analysis toolkit for ecosystem carbon absorption/ storage, one may examine not only the accumulated carbon storage and annual carbon absorption by region in Korea, but also the value evaluation results that are converted into economic values. ○ A user may select a type of ecosystem service and ecosystem, as well as the reference time and space to evaluate, then select (or directly input) the relevant modeling coefficient (carbon absorption coefficient or carbon storage coefficient) and unit value to quantitatively evaluate it. Then, it is possible to check the results of quantified environmental impact (carbon absorption and storage) and its economic value. 3. Ecosystem service: integrated water (freshwater) supply analysis toolkit □ Integrated water (freshwater) supply analysis toolkit is a tool to quantitatively evaluate the water supply and value provided by the ecosystem. Related work is underway to provide evaluation services within the Environmental Value Information System (EVIS) from 2022. ○ The toolkit is based on the results of the 2017 case studies on ‘water quantity modeling by region’ and ‘value estimation of water quantity supply by region.’ ○ Evaluation results can be derived when a user selects a specific ecosystem service (living/industrial/agricultural water supply, ecosystem residual amount) that the user wants to evaluate, the coefficients used for quantifying the environmental impact, and the unit values used for value evaluation. 4. Health impact: integrated air pollution analysis toolkit □ The integrated air pollution analysis toolkit has been provided by EVIS since 2020, which supports the evaluation of the impact of ultrafine dust (PM_2.5) due to the emission of major air pollutants (NOx, SO₂, PM_2.5, NH₃, VOC) on premature death and its cost of damage. ○ It evaluates not only damage by various air pollutants causing PM_2.5, but also damage costs by type of pollution source (point source, line source, surface source). □ For air pollutants subject to evaluation, input data can be selected according to the stages of emission-diffusion-concentration-health effects-economic damage, along with the impact paths of the pollutants. ○ After selecting the pollutant, its source type, and analysis area to be evaluated, a user may enter the conversion rate value that determines the concentration of ultrafine dust due to the conversion and diffusion of pollutants, the concentration-response coefficient for health impact evaluation, and finally the unit value such as Value of Statistical Life (VSL). ○ In addition to the final result of ‘annual cost of damage due to air pollutant emissions,’ an intermediate and detailed result of ‘annual premature death due to air pollutant emission’ can be validated. 5. Health effects: integrated chemical analysis toolkit □ This toolkit aims to provide an estimate of the total cost of damage caused by environmental hazardous factors such as chemicals that affect the health of receptors through media. □ This year (2021), an integrated analysis toolkit for mercury was established among many chemical substances. The analysis procedure, like other integrated analysis toolkits, follows the steps of setting the scope of analysis, quantifying environmental impact, and valuation (monetization). □ Integrated analysis toolkit for impact of mercury on health ○ The end points of health effects of mercury exposure include the decline in IQ, Mild Mental Retardation (MMR), and premature death from cardiovascular diseases. ○ Different parameters are applied depending on the end point, and even if the amount of damage for each end point is estimated, the total amount of damage does not mean the total damage cost of mercury. ○ Mercury-decline in IQ - The pathway of the impact of mercury on the decline in IQ largely follows the process of maternal exposure to mercury → increase in maternal blood mercury concentration → decrease in the baby’s IQ → income damage due to lower IQ → total damage calculation. ㆍ The integrated analysis toolkit suggests default values for parameters based on prior research, so a user can either use the default values or directly insert input values. ㆍ In the case of mercury-decline in IQ, the parameters are the mercury concentration in the hair of women of childbearing age, the doseresponse function slope parameter, the number of newborn children, and the value per IQ unit. ○ Mercury - Mild Mental Retardation (MMR) - The health effect pathway by which mercury causes mild mental retardation follows the process of maternal exposure to mercury → increase in maternal blood mercury concentration → baby’s MMR development → health damage costs (Disability Adjusted Life Years, DALYs) → total damage calculation. ㆍ In the case of Mercury-MMR, the parameters that the user can select/ enter are the mercury concentration in the hair of women of childbearing age, the disability weight parameter, the number of newborns by gender, and the unit value for the loss. ㆍ For disability weights, the value of WHO mercury sheet (2008) was used as a default value, and the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of MMR are converted into Value of Life Year (VOLY). ○ Mercury - premature death from cardiovascular diseases - The health effect pathway of mercury on premature death from cardiovascular diseases follows the process of mercury exposure → premature death due to cardiovascular diseases → health damage cost (VSL applied) → total damage calculation. ㆍ The parameters that the user can select/enter for mercury-to-cardiovascular mortality are the relative risk (RR) for mercury exposure between 40-59 years of age, the number of adult males aged 40-59 years, and the number of adult males who died of cardiovascular diseases between 40 and 59 years old, and the Value of Statistical Life (VSL). Ⅴ. Summary and Future Plans □ 2022-2023 corresponds to the third phase of this project, and the research will be conducted with a focus on upgrading the integrated environmental and economic analysis system and enhancing utilization in policy making. ○ The purpose of EVIS (2.0) is to update the content of the existing research and to use it in practical policy and project evaluation. □ In the third phase of the project, we plan to review the main evaluation systems including the strategic environmental assessment, regulatory impact analysis, and the systems for a preliminary feasibility study and to present ways to apply the environmental benefit/cost information of EVIS or the integrated analysis toolkit to the systems.

전자공시시스템(DART)을 활용한 국내 텍스트 분석(Textual Analysis) 환경에 관한 연구

김형준 ( Hyungjun Kim ),박종원 ( Jongwon Park ),이재원 ( Jaywon Lee ) 한국회계학회 2015 회계저널 Vol.24 No.4

본 연구는 금융감독원의 전자공시시스템(DART)을 통해 공시된 대량의 보고서들을 활용한 국내 텍스트 분석 연구 환경을 평가한다. 먼저 저자들은 대량의 공시서류를 내려받기 어려운 국내 전자공시 환경을 고려하여, 웹 크롤링 등을 활용한 우회적인 방법을 통해 1999년부터 2013년까지 공시된 총 111,497 건의 분기, 반기 및 사업보고서들을 내려받는다. 이후, Li(2008)의 연구방법을 응용하여 이들 보고서에서 "임원의 현황"표를 추출하는 비정형 데이터 마이닝 프로그램을 개발하고, 이를 바탕으로 전체 표본에 대한 텍스트분석 가능여부를 점검한다. 연구 결과, 전자공시시스템에 공시된 모든 분기, 반기, 및 사업보고서들 중 약 40%가 기계판독 불가능한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 기계판독이 가능한 보고 서들의 경우에도, 문서가 PDF 형식으로 제공되고 있어 효과적인 텍스트 분석을 위해서는 TXT 혹은 HTML 형식으로의 추가적인 변환작업이 필요한 것으로 나타났다. 최근 미국을 중심으로 각종 기업 공시자료들을 활용한 다양한 텍스트 분석이 진행되는 등 그 중요성이 점차 대두되고 있는 상황을 고려할 때, 본 연구의 결과는 국내 텍스트 분석 연구를 보다 활성화시키기 위해 DART 시스템의 개선이 선행되어야 한다는 점을 시사한다. In the United States, there is an increasing interest in the application of computer-based textual analysis and a large body of prior accounting literature has analyzed the textual contents of corporate filings such as annual reports. However, due to the lack of institutional supports and relevant experiences, neither practitioners nor researchers in Korea have used textual analysis. Given the circumstances, this study examines whether the Korea Financial Supervisory Service(FSS)``s on-line Data Analysis Retrieval and Transfer(DART) system offers adequate research environment for the textual analysis on corporate filings. By replicating a textual analysis procedure used in prior study, we point out some flaws and limitations of current DART system and suggest potential solutions to encourage the textual analysis in Korea. First, we start by collecting the full sample of corporate annual reports provided in DART system. Unlike the EDGAR(Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval) system in U.S. which allows information users to easily download massive amount of corporate reports through the anonymous FTP server, the DART system only provides web-based downloading system and does not facilitate users to download massive amount of reports instantly. In this study, we overcome this issue by utilizing a web-crawler program and collect 111,497 corporate annual(quarterly) reports from 1999-2013 period. However the development of web-crawler program requires information users to have certain level of programming skills, implying that this approach is not appropriate to be widely used. Moreover, it took approximately 372 hours to complete our collection using web-crawler which is three times longer that the time needed to collect the similar amount of corporate reports using EDGAR anonymous FTP server. Overall, our findings from the collection step indicate that current DART system is not suitable for downloading massive amount of corporate reports which is necessary to run the textual analysis. Second, from the collected samples, we extract "top executives status" table from individual reports with a text analyzing program that we develop following Li(2008). This procedure intends to check the machine-readability of texts and tables included in corporate reports and to further assess the environment of textual analysis using Korean data. With a similar method used by Li(2008) when extracting MD&A sections and footnotes from his U.S. sample annual reports, we try to obtain "top executives status" table from our Korean sample reports. We deem specific sentences that meet certain regular-expression conditions we define to be starting sentences of the "top executives status" tables. This text analyzing program is written by Python programming language and tested to ensure 99% or higher accuracy of extracting the table. The results indicate that the Korean DART system offers inadequate research environment for textual analysis on corporate filings. Particularly, corporate reports provided in PDF format act as constraints on analyzing the textual contests. In detail, 43,407 reports out of 111,497, which approximately is 40% of the total samples are found to be not machine readable. For these reports, computer failed to extract "top executive status" table meaning that none of the texts from the report could be used for textual analysis. Moreover, given the technical difficulties in reading PDF format, corporate filings that are machine readable require another conversion process before the textual analysis adding to the difficulty of analyzing massive amounts of data. Alternatively, we develop web automation program and web-crawler program in an attempt to collect the sample reports in a machine readable format. However, using these programs are time consuming works which require approximately 1,800 hours to complete our collection process. Considering that textual analysis on corporate filings are on the rise, our overall results reveal that the refinements of DART system must precede the active research on textual analysis of corporate filings in Korea. We propose two potential solutions to resolve the problems related to current DART system and encourage the textual analysis in Korea. First, as in the EDGAR system, DART system must construct an anonymous FTP server where the information users can easily access and download massive amount of reports. This may allow practitioners and researchers to actively engage in textual analysis and thereby extend the application of disclosed corporate reports. Furthermore, corporate managers would pay more attention to the non-numeric information included in their reports increasing the quality of disclosure. Second, DART system must make technical complements to its report format by providing additional format of TXT or HTML. PDF format report which is the only format of report that DART system provides has its advantage in terms of clarity and security. However, PDF reports require additional conversion process which significantly increases the time spent on running textual analysis. In addition, TXT and HTML formats are perfectly machine readable and can resolve the problems related to machine readability issue. This study contributes to the literature by examining the textual analysis research environment using DART system. In typical, we point out the flaws and limitations of DART system by comparing its relevant attributes with EDGAR system. Furthermore, we propose two potential solutions to resolve the problems and in turn encourage the textual analysis research in Korea.

환경·경제 통합분석을 위한 환경가치 종합연구 통합분석 시스템 구축 및 정책·사업 평가

김현노,안소은,전호철,이홍림,오치옥,송용현,최새미 한국환경정책평가연구원 2020 사업보고서 Vol.2020 No.-

Ⅰ. 서론 ❏ 연구배경 및 목적 ㅇ 환경가치를 고려한 합리적인 의사결정을 지원하기 위하여, 정책·사업으로 인한 물리적 환경영향 분석과 환경 편익·비용 경제성 평가가 연계된 종합적인 환경·경제 통합분석 연구가 수행될 필요가 있음 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 다양한 환경유형에 대한 환경영향 정량화 및 환경서비스의 단위당 가치(이하 단위가치)를 직접 추정하는 작업과 더불어, 두 결과를 연계하여 정책·사업평가에 활용할 수 있도록 체계적인 통합분석 틀(절차)을 마련하고자 함 ㅇ 또한 구축된 통합분석 틀이 하나의 시스템으로 작동할 수 있도록 분석도구를 제공함과 동시에 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS)을 시스템 지원 DB로 개선하고자 함 ❏ 연구내용 및 범위 ㅇ 통합분석 시스템의 구성요소는 크게 분석도구인 통합분석 템플릿과 분석자료를 제공하는 지원 DB, 두 가지로 구성됨. 따라서 환경유형별로 통합분석 템플릿을 설계하고 템플릿을 활용한 통합분석이 잘 이루어질 수 있도록 자료를 지원하는 지원 DB를 구축하는 작업을 수행함 - 시스템 구축 내용은 통합분석 틀 설계 및 DB 개선작업(1권 수록), 부문별 직접연구 및 정책평가를 위한 사례연구(2권 수록) 등을 포함함 ㅇ 연구 부문은 크게 총괄, 생태계 부문, 건강 부문, 국민환경의식조사의 4가지로 구분함 - 통합분석 시스템 구축 차원에서 기존의 환경가치 DB(EVIS) 선행연구 및 콘텐츠를 개선하고 통합분석 시스템 일부 부문을 정책평가 도구화함 · 대기오염에 따른 PM_2.5의 건강영향 가치평가 toolkit 서비스 제공 · 환경가치 추정 관련 최근 선행연구를 DB에 추가 - 부문별 사례연구로서 다음 연구를 진행함 · 생태계 서식처질에 대한 2019년 평가결과를 활용하여 제주도 생태계 서식처질변화를 화폐화하여 제시 · 본 연구에서 평가했던 여러 가지 생태계서비스 간 트레이드오프 분석을 포함하여 생태계서비스 현황 및 관계를 종합적으로 평가 · 주요 환경유해인자로 인한 생태위해성평가 및 피해비용 추정 관련 연구(AQUATOX 모델 활용 등)를 조사하여, ‘환경유해인자-생태계 영향-가치추정’ 경로에 기반한 생태계 위해성평가 가능성 모색 · 수은 및 IQ, 심혈관계 질환 등 화학물질의 건강영향을 장애보정손실연수(DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Year)로 정량화하고, 이를 가치추정과 연계하는 사례 검토 - 통합분석 시스템을 적용한 국가 정책사업 평가 차원의 사례연구로, 발전 부문 미세먼지 계절관리제에 대한 건강영향을 경제적 가치로 평가함 - 국민환경의식조사의 2020년 설문지 및 설문결과를 제시함과 더불어, 그간 축적된 국민환경의식조사 자료를 종합적으로 분석하여 우리나라 국민의 환경의식, 태도, 실천에 대한 경향을 보다 심층적으로 살펴보고자 하였음 Ⅱ. 환경·경제 통합분석 시스템 구축 1. 통합분석 절차 ❏ 환경·경제 통합분석은 인간 활동-환경질 변화-수용체(생태계, 인간 건강 등)의 영향경로를 추적하여 이를 물리적으로 평가하고, 이를 인간 활동과 직접적으로 연계시킨다는 점에서 영향경로분석법(IPA)에 기반을 둠 ㅇ 통합분석은 환경 정책/사업에 대한 평가범위의 목록화 및 선정작업에서 시작함. 다음으로 평가대상에 대한 물리적 환경영향 정량화를 수행하고 그 결과에 단위가치(비용)를 적용함으로써 환경 편익·비용을 도출함 ❏ 통합분석 도구인 ‘통합분석 템플릿’은 환경영향 정량화 및 환경가치 도출과정의 분석을 지원하며, 통합분석에서 사용한 자료 중 환경가치 관련 자료는 ‘환경가치 온라인DB(EVIS)’를 통해 제공받음 2. 통합분석 템플릿 ❏ 본 연구에서는 통합분석 절차의 체계적이고 효율적인 적용을 위한 분석도구로 템플릿을 활용함 ㅇ 이는 환경·경제 통합분석 절차인 영향범위 설정, 물리적 환경영향 정량화, 경제성평가과정의 절차 및 결과를 분석대상별로 구체화하여 한눈에 제시하는 표임 ㅇ 환경·경제 통합분석이 개별적인 사례연구로 활용되는 것이 아니라 의사결정을 돕는 하나의 시스템으로 자리 잡기 위해서는 통합분석 틀(절차)의 체계화가 필수적임 3. 환경가치 DB(EVIS) ❏ 환경가치 DB(EVIS) 개요 ㅇ 의사결정 시스템으로 환경·경제 통합분석을 활용하기 위해서는 통합분석 틀(절차)의 체계화를 넘어 분석에 사용되는 자료를 보다 효율적으로 지원할 수 있어야 함 ❏ 환경가치 DB(EVIS) 개선 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 통합분석 시스템을 구성하는 두 번째 요소인 환경가치 온라인 DB(EVIS)를 소개하고, 통합분석 시스템 지원 역할을 강화하기 위한 EVIS 개선작업을 정리함 - DB 내에 수록된 환경가치 선행연구를 최근까지 확장함 ∙ 업데이트를 통해 2020년 12월 현재 EVIS에서는 선행연구 468편, 가치추정치정보 2,174개를 제공하고 있음 ㅇ 부문별 평가결과를 정리한 템플릿의 수치를 ‘정책평가 도구화’함으로써 그 활용도를 제고할 수 있을 것으로 기대함. 따라서 환경가치종합정보시스템(EVIS)에 ‘가치평가 toolkit’ 서비스를 구축하여 제공함 - 가치평가 toolkit은 사용자가 환경가치 평가 시 원하는 환경유형을 선택하고 필요정보를 입력하면 가치평가 결과를 바로 얻을 수 있는 통합분석 도구임 ❏ 환경가치 DB(EVIS) 수록연구 현황 ㅇ 2018년 10월 대대적인 개선을 거쳐 서비스를 시작한 EVIS(ver.2)의 보유 연구 수는 362개에서 시작하여, 2019년 말 420개, 그리고 2020년 말 현재는 468개 선행연구에서 총 2,174개의 환경가치 추정치 정보를 요약·정리하여 수록함으로써 지속적으로 확장해 옴 - 생태계 부문은 284개 연구에서 1,301개, 건강 부문은 66개 연구에서 346개, 유·무형 자산은 87개 연구에서 306개의 가치추정치 정보를 DB에서 제공함 ∙ 생태계 유형별로는 산림, 담수(육수), 해안/연안 순으로 많은 정보가 수록되어있으며, 생태계서비스별로는 휴양·레저·관광미와 보전가치 관련 정보가 다수 포함됨 ∙ 건강 부문에서는 대기, 소음·진동, 물 순으로 DB에 포함된 정보가 많음 Ⅲ. 통합분석을 활용한 국가 정책 평가: 발전 부문 미세먼지 계절관리제 1. 분석 배경 및 개요 ❏ 미세먼지 계절관리제도 ㅇ 대기 중 미세먼지의 농도가 국내외 대기오염물질 배출량뿐만 아니라 기상조건에 영향을 크게 받으므로, 해당 기간의 고농도 미세먼지를 줄이기 위한 지속적이고 강화된 미세먼지 저감정책이 필요함 - “미세먼지 고농도 시기(’19.12 ~ ’20.3) 대응 특별대책(2019.11.1)”에서는 산업, 발전, 수송 및 생활 부문의 상시대책을 제시함 ∙ 산업 및 생활 부문의 미세먼지 고농도 시기 특별대책은 감시, 정보공개 및 영세사업장 지원 등 정량적 분석이 어렵고, 수송 부문 관련 데이터는 접근에 제한이 있음 ∙ 반면 발전 부문은 정책 대상이 되는 석탄화력 및 기타 발전소 정보가 상세히 공개됨 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 계절관리제의 발전 부문 효과를 영향경로분석 틀을 통해 분석함으로써 정책·사업 평가도구로서의 통합분석 틀의 활용성을 검토해 보고자 함 2. 물리적 환경영향 및 건강영향 정량화 ❏ 분석 시나리오 ㅇ 발전 부문 미세먼지 계절관리제는 2019년 12월부터 2020년 3월까지 시행됨 - 노후 석탄화력발전소의 가동 중단 및 모든 석탄화력발전소의 출력을 80% 수준으로 유지하고, 이를 대기오염물질 배출이 상대적으로 적은 발전원으로 대체하는 것을 내용으로 함 ㅇ 코로나19로 인한 산업 부문 전력수요 변화를 통제하기 위해 실제 총 발전량, 즉 총 수요량이 주어진 상황에서 각 발전원의 구성을 모의하여 차이를 추정함 - 다시 말해 계절관리제가 시행되어 나타난 발전량을 BAU로 하여 노후 석탄화력발전소의 가동 중단 및 석탄화력발전소의 출력 제한을 분리하여 정책효과를 추정하고, 더불어 두 가지 정책이 모두 시행되지 않는 경우의 발전원 구성을 모의하였음 · BAU: 계절관리제 정책(노후 석탄화력발전소의 가동 중단 + 출력 제한) · 시나리오 A: 출력 제한만 적용 · 시나리오 B: 노후 석탄화력발전기의 가동 중단만 적용 · 시나리오 C: 미세먼지 계절관리제 정책이 없는 경우 ❏ 분석 모형 및 자료 ㅇ 해외와 달리 국내 전력시장은 한전이 유일한 판매업자이며 독립 계통이기 때문에 발전기의 특성 및 비용자료 등을 통해 전력시장을 실제와 거의 동일한 수준에서 모의할 수 있음 ㅇ ㈜에넥이 개발한 KPM simulator를 활용하여 미세먼지 계절관리제 기간의 발전기별 발전량을 모의함 - 이는 가격결정발전계획과 운영발전계획 수립 과정을 혼합정수선형계획(MILP: Mixed Integer Linear Programming) 기반의 가동 중단계획(UC: Unit Commitment)으로 모형화하는 방식임 - 주요 입력자료는 다음과 같음 · 발전기의 물리적 특성: 최대·최소 발전량, 증감발율, 최소 운전시간, 최소 중단시간 및 예비력 공급능력 · 발전비용: 열량함수, 기동 중단 비용, 열량단가 · 시간대별 전력수요 예측자료: 미세먼지 계절관리제 기간 시간대별 발전량 실적 적용 · 예비력 운용기준: 9/15 순환정전 이후 개정된 예비력 운영기준을 따름 · 신재생에너지 발전량: 발전원별 평균 추세 보정 · 발전기별 배출계수: 굴뚝원격감시체계(TMS: Telemonitoring System)에 실측된 발전호기별 배출량과 발전량의 매칭을 통해 배출계수 도출 ❏ 분석결과 ㅇ 계절관리제를 통해 추가적으로 감축된 온실가스는 약 1,200만 tCO2e으로 추정됨 ㅇ 연구의 주요 대상 대기오염물질인 NOx, SOx 및 PM_2.5는 각각 약 6.4톤, 2.9톤, 0.25톤 감축됨 ㅇ 개별 정책효과의 경우 노후 석탄발전기의 가동 중단보다 출력 제한의 효과가 큰 것으로 나타남 ㅇ 석탄발전소의 대부분이 충남, 경남, 인천 지역에 집중되어 있어 해당 지역의 대기오염물질 배출량이 높으며, 계절관리제 시행으로 인해 해당 지역의 배출량 감소효과가 높게 나타남 3. 건강영향 정량화 및 환경영향 화폐화 ❏ 분석 절차 및 자료 ㅇ 발전 부문의 미세먼지 계절관리제 정책의 건강영향 정량화 및 환경영향 화폐화는 안소은 외(2019)에서 적용하였던 영향경로분석(Impact Pathway Analysis) 접근방법을 활용함 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 대기오염물질 배출에 따른 지역별 농도 변화를 도출하기 위해 문난경, 서지현(2018, p.60)에서 도출한 지역 간 전환율, 즉 S-R 행렬(Source-Receptor Matrix)을 활용함 - 각 발전호기별 발전량 및 이에 따른 오염물질 배출량과 지역정보를 결합하여 적용함 ㅇ 대기 중 미세먼지 농도 변화로 인한 조기사망자수 변화는 그간 국내 연구에서 널리 인용되었던 Hoek et al.(2013)의 농도반응(CR: Concentration-Response)함수를 활용하여 추정함 ㅇ 조기사망 위험을 화폐가치화하는 과정에는 해외 영향경로 분석 등에서 가장 널리 사용되는 OECD(2012)의 사망위험 감소가치(VSL: Value of a Statistical Life)값을 적용함 ❏ 분석결과 ㅇ 발전 부문 미세먼지 계절관리제가 조기사망에 미치는 최종 편익은 연간 약 2,306억원으로 추정됨(시나리오 C에서 BAU 차감) - 오염물질 중에서는 SOx 배출량의 감축으로 인한 환경편익이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 석탄발전을 LNG발전으로 대체하게 되면서 나타나는 현상임 ㅇ 농도-반응함수의 불확실성을 고려할 때 최종 환경편익의 범위는 1,530억 원~3,082억 원으로 나타남 ㅇ 지역별로는 석탄발전소가 위치한 지역 및 인구가 많은 수도권이 다른 지역에 비해 정책편익이 높은 것으로 나타남 Ⅳ. 국민환경의식조사 종합분석: 2012~2017년 1. 연도별 경향 및 인구통계학적 특성별 경향 분석 ❏ 환경에 대한 관심과 환경보전 중요성 ㅇ 환경에 대한 관심은 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 환경보전 중요성에 대한 인식은 평균적으로 ‘중요한 편이다(4점)’로 평가됨 ❏ 환경상태 만족도 ㅇ ‘자연 경관’과 ‘하늘/공기’, ‘도시녹지’, ‘물/강/호수/바다’ 항목에서 긍정적이고, ‘소음’과 ‘쓰레기 처리’, ‘화학물질’ 항목에서 부정적인 경향을 보임 ㅇ ‘생물다양성’ 만족도는 꾸준히 증가하여 2017년에는 평균점수가 보통(3점) 이상으로 평가됨 ❏ 가장 우려되는 환경문제 ㅇ 쓰레기 증가 문제에 대한 우려가 가장 높았고, 2016년과 2017년에 수질 및 대기오염 문제에 대한 우려가 높게 나타남 ❏ 인구통계학적 특성에 따른 환경인식 및 환경실천 ㅇ 연도별 경향 및 인구통계학적 특성별 경향분석 결과를 살펴본 결과, 일부 이슈가 되는 문제에 대한 관심도 상승 등을 제외하고는 전반적으로 연도별 차이가 크지 않음 ㅇ 환경보전의 중요도 - 수도권에 거주하는 고학력, 고소득, 고령의 여성일수록 환경문제에 대한 관심도가 평균적으로 더 높게 나타남 ㅇ 환경보전 행동 여부 - 대도시보다는 중소도시 거주자일수록, 여성일수록, 교육 수준이 중졸 이하 혹은 대학원 이상일수록, 혼인을 한 경우일수록 환경보전 행동 개수가 많은 것으로 나타남 - 연령 및 소득이 더 높을수록 환경보전 행동 개수가 감소하는 경향을 보임 2. 해외 설문조사 결과와의 비교 ❏ 문항이 유사한 해외 설문조사와 국민환경의식조사의 결과 비교를 통해, 우리나라 국민들의 환경의식, 태도 및 행동에 대한 응답값이 상대적으로 어떤 의미를 가지는지 파악하고자 함 ㅇ 유럽연합의 조사(EC, 2014)에서는 ‘경제적, 환경적, 사회적 기준을 동일하게 적용’(59%)이 우리나라에 비해 20% 이상 높았고, 우리나라의 경우 ‘경제적 기준을 우선적용’한다는 응답비율이 높게 나타남 ㅇ 독일의 경우 이민이나 범죄, 테러 등의 주제가 우선시되고 있는 반면, 우리나라에서는 실업, 물가 등 경제 관련 주제에 대한 정책수요가 높게 나타남. 설문결과에서 각 사회의 특징이 잘 나타남을 확인함 ㅇ 유럽연합과 비교했을 때 우리나라에서는 ‘쓰레기 분리수거’와 ‘일회용품 소비 줄이기’, ‘물 소비 줄이기’에 대한 실천이 높았고, ‘여행할 때 친환경적 교통수단 이용’과‘지역 농산물/물건 구매’에 대한 실천은 낮은 것으로 파악됨 ㅇ 환경문제 해결을 위한 방안으로 유럽연합의 조사(EC, 2014)에서는 법 위반자에 대한 벌금 강화’와 ‘환경보전 노력에 대한 보상’과 같이 경제적인 접근이 효과적일 것이라는 응답이 많았던 것과는 달리, 우리나라의 경우 경제적 요인보다는 정보 제공 및 교육이나 규제집행 방식의 효과를 더 높게 평가한다는 특징이 있었음 3. 구조적 관계에 대한 심화분석 ❏ 환경인식, 환경태도, 환경실천의 구조적 관계 ㅇ 환경행동 이론을 적용하여, 환경 관련 획득정보-중요도 평가 간의 연관성, 태도-실천간의 연관성, 환경 만족도-삶의 만족도 간 연관성 등에 대해 구조적 관계를 도출하고자 함 - 환경인식, 환경태도, 환경실천의 구조적 관계를 파악하기 위해 환경지식-환경의식-환경행동(KAB) 관련 가설을 설정하고 이를 검증한 결과, 통계적으로 유의한 관계는 다음과 같이 나타남 · “환경정보의 양-환경중요도”(+), “환경중요도-환경태도”(+), “환경중요도-환경실천”(+), “환경태도-환경실천”(+), “환경만족도-삶의 질 만족도”(+) · 국민환경의식조사의 분석 결과, 행동이론에서의 환경의식-환경행동 간 연결고리라는 전통적인 환경행동 이론을 실증적으로 확인함 ❏ 환경의식과 기후정책 인지의 구조적 관계 ㅇ 우리나라 국민이 미세먼지 등에 대한 주요 환경정책을 어떻게 인지하고 있으며, 그것이 환경의식과 어떤 구조적 관계가 있는지 파악하는 것은 정책추진에 중요함. 따라서 본 연구에서는 개인의 환경에 대한 가치 및 태도와 같은 환경의식이 환경정책, 특히 기후정책을 인지하는 데 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 살펴보고자 함 - 신환경패러다임(NEP: New Environmental Paradigm), 친환경태도, 환경중요도인지, 미세먼지 위험 인지, 미세먼지 정책기여도 인지 요인을 활용하였으며, 요인간 영향관계를 파악하기 위해 구조방정식 모형을 분석함 · 여러 요인의 직간접 효과를 합산하여 총 효과를 검증한 결과, 생태중심적인 NEP가 미세먼지 정책기여도 인지에 미치는 효과는 직접경로는 없으나 간접경로를 통해 영향이 있음을 확인함. 또한 인간중심적인 NEP가 미세먼지 정책기여도 인지에 미치는 효과 역시 직접경로는 없으나 간접경로를 통해 -0.052만큼의 총 효과를 미치는 것을 확인함 - 결과적으로, 생태중심적인 환경의식을 가진 사람일수록 주변 환경의 중요도를 더 높게 인지하며 친환경적인 태도를 가지고, 이러한 개인의 의식과 태도는 우리나라에서 시행되고 있는 환경정책이 실제로 환경에 기여하는 바가 높다고 인지하도록 영향을 미침 - 반면, 인간중심적인 환경의식을 가진 사람은 주변 생태계의 중요도를 낮게 인지하며, 이러한 태도의 영향을 받아 환경정책의 기여도가 낮다고 판단함 - 미세먼지의 위험 수준을 높게 인지할수록 미세먼지정책 기여도가 낮다고 평가하고 있는데, 이는 미세먼지가 개인에게 주는 피해가 높다고 인지하는 경우 정책에 대한 부정적 의식이 생긴다는 것으로 해석할 수 있음 Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Research Background and Purpose ❏ In order to support decision-making that considers the values of the environment, there is a need to conduct a comprehensive research analysis that integrates the environment and the economy and also ties in the analysis of physical environmental impacts from the policy/project and the economic evaluation of environmental benefits and costs. ❏ This study, therefore, quantifies the environmental impacts of various environment types and estimates values per unit (hereinafter, unit values) of environmental services. It also establishes a systematic framework (procedures) that connects the two outcomes to utilize them in the policy/project assessment. ❏ Furthermore, it aims to provide an analytical tool through which the established integrated analytical framework can operate as a single system. It also seeks to improve the Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) as a system-supporting database. 2. Research content and scope ❏ The integrated analysis system comprises two main items: analytical tool (the integrated analysis template) and support DB (provides data for analysis). Hence, a template for integrated analysis is designed for each environment type, and the support DB, which provides data, is built so that integrated analyses using templates run smoothly. ㅇ The content on system-building includes designing of the integrated analytical framework and improvement of the DB (contained in book 1), direct research by each category, and case studies for policy assessment (contained in book 2). ❏ The research is categorized into four domains of general, ecosystem, health, and Survey on Public Attitudes toward the Environment. ㅇ When building the integrated analytical system, precedent studies and contents on environmental value DB (EVIS) were improved and a portion of the integrated analytical system was made into a tool for evaluating policy. - Provide the toolkit service for the valuation of health impact of PM 2.5 due to air pollution. - Up to date precedent studies related to estimation added to the DB. ㅇ The research carried out comprised the following case studies for each domain: - Present the monetization of changes in the quality of habitats in the ecosystem of Jeju Island using the 2019 assessment results on the ecosystem habitat qualities. - Comprehensively evaluate the current state and relations of ecosystem services, including analysis of the trade-off between various ecosystem services assessed in this study. - Investigate studies (e.g., use of the AQUATOX model) related to ecological risk assessment and estimated cost of damage due to major environmental hazard factors in order to search for possibilities of evaluation of environmental hazards based on the route of “environmental hazard factor-impact on ecosystem-value estimation.” - Quantify health impacts, like mercury and IQ levels and cardiovascular problems, from chemical substances into Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), and review cases that link it to value estimation. ㅇ As a case study to assess national policy with the application of the integrated analysis system, the health impacts of the seasonal management system of fine particulate matters in electrical power generation sector was monetized. ㅇ Along with presenting the Public Attitudes towards the Environment Survey and results of 2020, this study sought to examine in-depth Koreans’ environmental awareness, attitude and practice by comprehensively analyzing survey data collected throughout the years. Ⅱ. Establishment of an Integrated Environmental and Economic Analysis System 1. Procedures of integrated analysis ❏ Integrated environmental and economic analysis is based on impact pathway analysis (IPA) in that it tracks impact pathways of human activities-environmental quality changes-receptors (e.g., ecosystems and human health), physically assesses them, and directly connects them to human activities. ㅇ Integrated analysis begins by listing and selecting the scope of assessment for environmental policies/projects. Next, physical environmental impacts of the assessment target are quantified, to which unit values (costs) are applied to derive the environmental benefits/costs. ❏ “Integrated analysis templates”, a tool for integrated analysis, supports the analysis of the process of quantifying environmental impacts and deriving environmental values. Data related to environmental valuation employed in the integrated analysis are provided by the online environmental valuation DB (EVIS). 2. Integrated analysis templates ❏ This study uses templates as analytical tools for a systematic and efficient application of integrated analysis procedures. ㅇ Templates present the procedures of integrated environmental and economic analysis at a glance, including setting the scope of impacts, quantifying physical environmental impacts, and specifying the procedures and results of the economic assessment process by analysis targets. ㅇ It is necessary to systematize the integrated analytical framework (procedures) in order to establish an integrated environmental and economic analysis as a system to support decision-making, rather than using it as individual case studies. 3. Environmental valuation database (EVIS) ❏ Outline of environmental valuation DB (EVIS) ㅇ To use the integrated environmental and economic analysis as a decision making system, it is essential to efficiently support data used in the analysis, reaching beyond systematizing the integrated analytical framework (procedures). ❏ Improving environmental valuation DB (EVIS) ㅇ This study introduces an online environmental valuation DB (EVIS), the second component of the integrated analysis system, and summarizes EVIS improvements implemented to strengthen its role in supporting the integrated analysis system. - Precedent studies on environmental valuation included in the DB are updated to include current studies. · Through the update, as of December 2020, 468 precedent studies and 2,174 value estimation information are available on EVIS. By “instrumentalizing” the numerical values of templates, which summarizes the assessment results by category, as “policy assessment,” it is expected to enhance their utility. Therefore, the “valuation toolkit” service is established and provided on EVIS. - The valuation toolkit is an integrated analytical tool that allows users to immediately obtain valuation results by selecting a type of environment and entering required information. ❏ Current state of registered studies on EVIS ㅇ After going through an extensive improvement, EVIS (ver.2) began its service in October 2018, offering access to 362 studies. This number grew to 420 by the end of 2019, and as of now (end of 2020), there are 468 precedent studies and 2,174 summaries for information on environmental value estimation. - At least 284 studies and 1,301 value estimates for the ecosystem domain, 6 studies and 346 value estimates for the health domain, and 87 studies and 306 value estimates for the tangible and intangible assets domain are available on the database. · By ecosystem types, information is available, most in the order of forest, freshwater (inland water), and coastal and offshore water, and by ecosystem services. There is extensive information available relating to recreation/leisure/tourism and conservation values. · In the health domain, most information available is on the atmosphere, followed by noise/vibration and water. Ⅲ. Assessing the National Policy Using the Integrated Analysis Framework: Fine Dust Seasonal Management System in the Electrical Power Generation Sector 1. Background and outline ❏ Seasonal management system for fine dust ㅇ Since the concentration of fine dust in the air is greatly affected not only by pollutants emitted domestically and overseas, but also by weather conditions, it is necessary to implement continuous and strengthened fine dust reduction policy to decrease high concentrations of PM 2.5 during a given time period. - The “Special Counter-measures against High Concentration Period (December 2019-March 2020) of Fine Dust” (November 1, 2019) mentioned the permanent measures required in the sectors of industry, electrical power generation, transport, and daily life. · Special measures taken during the high concentration period for the sectors of the industry and daily life were surveillance, information disclosure, and support for small-scale businesses, for which quantitative analyses are difficult; and there is limited access to data relating to the transport sector. · On the contrary, for the electrical power generation sector, information is released in detail for policy targets like coal-fired and other types of power plants. ㅇ By analyzing the effect of seasonal management system on electrical power generation sector through IPA, this study seeks to review the utility of the integrated analysis framework as a tool for policy and project assessment. 2. Quantifying environmental impacts and health impacts ❏ Scenario analysis ㅇ Seasonal management system for fine dust in the electrical power generation sector was carried out between December 2019 and March 2020. - It meant shutting down aged coal-fired power plants and maintaining 80% generating capacity for all other coal-fired power plants. The remainder was to be supplemented through other power sources that emit relatively less air pollutants. ㅇ In order to control changes in power demand by the industry sector due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the difference was estimated by simulating the composition of each power source given the actual total power generation or total demand. - In other words, power generated after implementing the seasonal management system is set as BAU(Business As Usual), and the policy effect is estimated by the difference between shutting down of aged coal-fired power plants and restricting generating capacity of coal-fired power plants. In addition, the composition of power source has been simulated in case neither policy is implemented. · BAU: seasonal management system policy (shutting down aged coalfired power plants + restricting upper limit on bid · Scenario A: implement only restricting upper limit on bid · Scenario B: implement only shutting down aged coal-fired power plants · Scenario C: the case where policy on the seasonal management system for fine dust does not exist ❏ Analysis model and data ㅇ Unlike in other countries, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is the sole distributor in the Korean electricity market and is an independent entity. Hence, it is possible to simulate the electricity market as realistically as possible by using data on generators and costs. ㅇ Using the KPM simulator developed by ENEG Inc., it simulates the energy production for the period of seasonal management system for fine dust. - This is a method that models unit commitment (UC) based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP) from the planning processes of resource scheduling and commitment and scheduling for operation. - The following are key data inputs: · Physical characteristics of generators: maximum and minimum energy production, ramp rate, minimum operation time, minimum down time, and reserve energy supply capacity · Cost of generation: fuel function, unit commitment cost, and fuel cost · Data on energy demand estimates by hours: apply the energy production records by hours during the period of fine dust seasonal management system · Operational standards for reserve energy: follow the reserve energy operational standards revised after the September 15 rolling blackouts. · Renewable energy production: revise the average trends by power source · Emission factors by generator: derive emission factors by matching the amount emitted by a generator as measured in the telemonitoring system (TMS) and the amount produced. ❏ Analysis results ㅇ It is estimated that approximately 12 million tCO2e was additionally reduced through the implementation of the seasonal management system. ㅇ The amounts reduced for key air pollutants investigated in this study were 6.4 tons for NOx (Nitrogen Oxides), 2.9 tons for Sox (Sulphur Oxides), and 0.25 tons for PM 2.5. ㅇ For individual policy effects, implementing restriction of upper limit on bid was more effective than shutting down aged coal-fired generators. ㅇ Since the majority of coal-fired power plants are located in the regions of Chungcheongnam-do Province, Gyeongsangnam-do Province, and Incheon, emission of air pollutants is high in these areas. Hence, the implementation of seasonal management system had a positive effect of greatly reducing emission in these regions. 3. Quantifying environmental impacts and health impacts ❏ Analysis procedures and data ㅇ The IPA approach method, as applied in the study by So-eun Ahn et al. (2019), was used for quantifying health impacts and monetizing environmental impacts of fine dust seasonal management system in electrical power generation sector. ㅇ To derive changes in the concentration level by region from the emission of pollutants, this study used the conversion rate, Source-Receptor Matrix (S-R matrix), derived by Nan-kyoung Moon et al. (2019). - Applied the combination of power generated by each unit of generator, the respective emitted amount of pollutants and regional information. ㅇ Changes in the number of premature mortality caused by changes in the concentration level of fine dust in the air were estimated using the Concentration-Response (CR) function by Hoek et al. (2013), which is frequently cited in domestic studies. ㅇ During the process of monetizing the risks of premature mortality, OECD’s (2012) Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) was applied, a value that is most widely used in foreign IPA. ❏ Analysis results ㅇ It is estimated that the final benefit for premature mortality by fine dust seasonal management system in the electrical power generation sector is approximately 230.6 billion won a year (deducting BAU from Scenario C). - Reduction in the emission of SOx among other pollutants is found to bring the largest environmental benefit, a phenomenon that occurs with replacing coal-fired power generation with LNG power generation. ㅇ Taking into account the uncertainty of the CR function, the range of final environmental benefit is between 153 billion won and 308.2 billion won. ㅇ Compared to other regions, policy benefit is found to be largest for regions housing coal-fired power plants and densely populated metropolitan area. Ⅳ. Comprehensive Analysis of Public Attitudes towards the Environment: 2012~2017 Surveys 1. Analyses of annual trends and trends of demographic characteristics ❏ Interest in the environment and the importance of conserving it ㅇ Interest in the environment continues to rise, and perception on the importance of environmental conservation is assessed to be “important on average” (4 points). ❏ Levels of satisfaction for environmental conditions ㅇ Positive trends are apparent in items such as “natural scenery,” “sky/air,” “urban green space,” and “water/river/lake/sea,” while negative trends are evident in items such as “noise,” “waste disposal,” and “chemical substances.” ㅇ The level of satisfaction for “biodiversity” has been steadily increasing, and was assessed to have an average score greater than “normal” (3 points) in 2017. ❏ Environmental awareness and practice according to demographic characteristics ㅇ According to the results of the analysis, the annual trends and trends of demographic characteristics showed that there were overall no significant differences between the years, except for increased interest in some problems that have become public issues. ㅇ Importance of environmental conservation - On an average, interest in environmental problems was higher among females living in the metropolitan area, who are well-educated, earn high incomes, and were older in age. ㅇ Status of environmental conservation behavior - Those who live in small and medium-sized cities are women, have an education level of middle school diploma or lower or higher than graduate school, and are married showed greater environmental conservation behavior. - Environmental conservation behavior tended to decrease with age and higher income. 2. Comparison with foreign survey results ❏ This study sought to identify the relative significance of Koreans’ responses to environmental awareness, attitude, and behavior by comparing the results of Public Attitudes towards the Environment Survey with those of foreign surveys with similar questions. ㅇ In the EU survey (EC, 2014), the response of “equal application of economic, environmental, and social standards” (59%) was higher by over 20% in comparison to the Korean response. In the case of Korea, the rate of response was higher for “prioritizing the application of economic standards.” ㅇ In the case of Germany, issues like immigration, crime, and terrorism were prioritized, while in Korea, policy demand was greater for economy-related issues like unemployment and market price. It was verified that the characteristics of each society were demonstrated well through survey results. ㅇ Compared to the EU, Koreans practiced “waste recycling,” “reducing the consumption of disposable products,” and “reducing water consumption,” and practiced less of “using environmentally friendly means of transportation when traveling” and “purchasing local produce/products.” ㅇ In the EU survey (EC, 2014), many responded that taking an economic approach, such as “strengthening fines against violators of the law” and “compensation for environmental conservation efforts,” would be effective for solving environmental problems. However, in Korea, many responded that providing information/education and enforcing regulations would be more effective than economic factors. 3. In-depth analysis of structural relationships ❏ Structural relationships between environmental awareness, attitude, and practice ㅇ Through the application of environmental practice theory, this study sought to establish structural relationships between the following: the relationship between (i) information obtained regarding the environment and assessment of its importance; (ii) attitude and practice, and (iii) environmental satisfaction and satisfaction over quality of life. - In order to identify the structural relationships among environmental awareness, attitude, and practice, a hypothesis on environmental knowledge-environmental attitude-environmental behavior (KAB) was set and verified. According to the results, the statistically significant relationships are as follow: · “Quantity of environmental knowledge - environmental importance” (+);” “environmental importance - environmental attitude” (+); “environmental importance - environmental practice” (+); “environmental attitude - environmental practice” (+); and “environmental satisfaction - life quality satisfaction” (+). · Through the analysis results of Public Attitudes towards the Environment Survey, the traditional environmental behavior theory, which is said to link environmental awareness and environmental behavior in behavior theory, has been empirically verified. ❏ Structural relationship between climate policy recognition and environmental awareness ㅇ Identifying how Korean citizens recognize key climate policies like those related to fine dust, and how it forms a structural relationship with environmental awareness are important for policy enforcement. Therefore, this study seeks to examine how individuals’ environmental awareness (e.g., value and attitude towards the environment) affects environmental policies, especially climate policies. - New environmental paradigm (NEP), environmentally friendly attitude, awareness of environmental importance, awareness of fine dust risks, and awareness of fine dust policy contribution were used as factors, for which the structural equation modeling was analyzed to identify the effect and relationship between the factors. · According to the results of verifying the total effectiveness by combining the direct and indirect effects of various factors, while the eco-centric NEP did not have a direct influence over the awareness of fine dust policy contribution, it was noted to have an indirect influence. Anthropocentric NEP also did not have a direct influence over the awareness of fine dust policy contribution, but did indirectly influence the total effectiveness by -0.052. - Ultimately, individuals who have eco-centric environmental awareness are more likely to show greater awareness of the importance of the environment. Such an awareness and attitude of individuals influence their perception that the contribution of environment policy toward the environment has to be actually high. - On the contrary, individuals who have anthropocentric environmental awareness are less likely to be aware of the importance of the environment, and due to the influence of such an attitude, they assessed their contribution to environmental policy to be low. - Those who perceived the risks of fine dust to be high assessed the contribution to fine dust policy to be low, which can be interpreted as developing negative perception toward the relevant policy when they believe fine dust to be highly damaging to individuals.

The comparison of joint kinematic error using the absolute and relative coordinate systems for human gait

임용훈,최안렬,민경기,금동혁,최창현,문정환,이상식 대한기계학회 2009 JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Vol.23 No.1

Minimizing artifacts from skin movement is vital for acquiring more accurate kinematic data in human movement analysis. There are several stages that cause skin movement artifacts and these stages depend on the selection of the reference system, the error reduction method and the coordinate system in clinical gait analysis. Due to residual errors, which are applied to the Euler and Bryant angle methods in each stage, significant cumulative errors are generated in the motion analysis procedure. Thus, there is currently a great deal of research focusing on reducing kinematic errors through error reduction methods and kinematic error estimations in relation to the reference system. However, there have been no studies that have systematically examined the effects of the selected coordinate system on the estimation of kinematic errors, because most of these previous studies have been mainly concerned with the analysis of human movement using only the human models that are provided in the commercial 3D motion capture systems. Therefore, we have estimated the differences between the results of human movement analyses using an absolute coordinate system and a relative coordinate system during a gait, in order to establish which system provides a more accurate kinematic analysis at the ankle joint. Six normal adult subjects with no neurological or orthopedic conditions, lower extremity injuries, or recent history of lower extremity surgery were used in this study. The analysis was conducted at a walking speed of 1.35m/s. For the clinical estimation, we used a cardinal plane based on the segmental reference system and the differences were plotted on the planes. From this analysis, when a relative coordinate system was in the gait analysis, the average kinematic error occurring during the gait was determined to be 13.58mm, which was significantly higher than the error generated with an absolute coordinate system. Therefore, although the relative coordinate system can also be used to calculate the ankle joint center during the clinical gait analysis, the absolute coordinate system should be employed in order to obtain more accurate joint kinematic data. In addition, the results from this study can be used as a basis to select an appropriate coordinate system with regards to the diagnostic accuracy level required for various kinds of gait disorders.

스트립을 이용한 요분석시스템의 개발과 퍼지추론에 의한 검사결과 평가에 관한 연구

전계록,이승진,최병철,안시훈,하광,김주열,김재형,Jun, K. R.,Lee, S. J.,Choi, B. C.,An, S. H.,Ha, K.,Kim, J. Y.,Kim, J. H. 대한의용생체공학회 1998 의공학회지 Vol.19 No.5

본 연구에서는 요분석용 스트립을 이용하여 요의 상태를 정량적·정성적으로 측정할 수 있는 요분석시스템을 구현하였다. 요분석시스템의 분석 알고리듬은 온도 변화, 전원 노이즈 통의 외란에 강인한 특성을 나타내기 위하여 퍼지 논리를 적용하였다. 강인하고 안정적인 요분석시스템을 설계하기 위하여 스트립 9가지 패드의 분강학적 특성을 검토하였다. 요분석시스템 하트웨어와 소프트웨어로 구성되었다. 요분석시스템의 하드웨어는 단일칩 마이크로프로세서를 사용하였고, 주변장치들로는 광하부, 트레이 제어, 전치증폭부, PC와의 통신, 열전사 프린터 및 동작 상태 표시기로 구성하였다. 요분석시스템의 소프트웨어는 시스템 프로그램과 분류 프로그램으로 구성하였다. 시스템 프로그램은 시스템 제어와 데이터 취득 및 분석을 수행하도록 하였다. 분규 프로그램은 퍼지추론부와 멤버쉽함수 발생기로 구성되었다 멤버쉽함수 발생기는 정도관리의 통계학적 방법을 이용하여 삼각형 멤버쉽함수를 생성하였다. 측정된 데이터는 PC로 전송되고, 전송된 데이터는 C++로 작성된 데이터 관리 및 취득 프로그램에 의해 저장된다. 요분석시스템의 정확도와 퍼지분류기의 안정성은 표준시료를 이용하여 평가하였다. 실험결과는 검사항목과 만족한 일치를 보였다. In this paper, we implemented the urine analysis system capable of measuring a qualitative and semi-quantitative and assay using strip. The analysis algorithm of urine analysis was adopted a fuzzy logic-based classifiers that was robust to external error factors such as temperature and electric power noises. The spectroscopic properties of 9 pads In a strip were studied to developing the urine analysis system was designed for robustnesss and stability. The urine analysis system was consisted of hardware and software. The hardware of the urine analysis system was based on one-chip microprocessor, and Its peripherals which composed of optic modulo, tray control, preamplifier, communication with PC, thermal printer and operating status indicator. The software of the urine analysis system was composed of system program and classification program. The system program did duty fort system control, data acquisition and data analysis. The classification program was composed of fuzzy inference engine and membership function generator. The membership function generator made triangular membership functions by statical method for quality control. Resulted data was transferred through serial cable to PC. The transferred data was arranged and saved be data acquisition program coded by C+ + language. The precision of urine analysis system and the stability of fuzzy classifier were evaluated by testing the standard urine samples. Experimental results showed a good stability states and a exact classification.

라이프 사이클 코스트 분석시 의사결정자를 위한 원가분석명세 시스템에 관한 연구

정순성 대한건축학회 2004 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.20 No.3

The purpose of this study is to suggest the cost analysis breakdown system of present worth method for decision maker in life cycle cost analysis. During the LCC analysis of primary cooling system, the project phases divided into planning/design, equipment construction, maintenance/management, and demolition/sell phases. and established cost items of each phases. The main results are as follows; (1) In the cost analysis breakdown system(LCC_(15)) analysis of primary cooling system, the order of the average rates in each phases shows maintenance/management, equipment construction, planning/design, and demolition/sell phases. (2) The result of capacity base LCC_(15) of primary cooling system shows that the absorption chiller-heater system for urban gas is advantageous for less than 500USRT, and ice storage method is advantageous for more than 500USRT. (3) In the cost analysis breakdown system(LCC_(15)) analysis of primary cooling system, the order of the sensitivity analysis factor shows energy cost, operation labor cost, maintenance cost, water service cost, water clean cost, drainage cost, tax(annual), fire insurance cost, and water use cost. (4) This study propose the cost analysis breakdown system of present worth method for decision maker in life cycle cost analysis.

A Quality Analysis Model of Computer Software System Based on Fuzzy Information Content

LiangTian,Li Xin 보안공학연구지원센터 2015 International Journal of Hybrid Information Techno Vol.8 No.10

Developing computer software system is a crucial part of the intelligent design. In order to solve problems presented in software system quality analysis, this paper proposes a quality analysis model for computer software system based on fuzzy information content. In this model, fuzzy information content of quality analysis indicators is defined according to information axiom, and a software system quality analysis index system is constructed with the basic layer, the support layer and the application layer considered. With the index system, fuzzy information content can be computed and analyzed to obtain fuzzy information content of computer software system. This facilitates the quantitative analysis on the quality of the software system. Finally, an engineering case study is introduced to explain how the model works and proves efficacy and feasibility of the model.

경기도 공간정보 활용시스템 도입 방향

옥진아,정효진 경기연구원 2022 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

In order to support efficient and scientific spatial policy and decision-making, it is necessary to utilize a spatial information system for user-oriented business application and utilization. To support Gyeonggi-dos spatial policy, it is necessary to improve work efficiency, such as reviewing the appropriateness of a new location based on spatial data, and to prepare a decision-making support system for spatial planning. In order to establish and utilize an effective spatial policy support system, it is necessary to clearly establish who the end users are and develop functions accordingly. The spatial information utilization system is expected to be highly utilized in tasks such as reviewing new locations, evaluating the adequacy of development projects, monitoring changes for urban management, and reviewing city and county urban planning data. To establish and utilize the spatial information utilization system, it is necessary to prepare a continuous data management system. Consistent maintenance of data collection, construction and update system is required, and maintaining temporal and spatial resolution of data collection, construction, and update as consistent as possible is the most important factor in terms of practical utility of data. As a data automatic update system, the system should be designed and developed so that data update can be automated as much as possible through close consultation with the producer (supplier) of the DB that will be the basis of the system. In addition to (quasi) real-time update of quantitative data, a plan should be prepared to maintain the up-to-dateness of changes in related systems (laws, etc.) The introduction of Gyeonggi-do’s geospatial information utilization system needs to be promoted step by step. It is necessary to introduce the Gyeonggi-do policy support system focusing on the necessary new location analysis function first, and then expand the scope of application of various spatial analysis functions and systems necessary for the establishment of spatial planning. The spatial information utilization system should be used as a policy support system for new site review, planning support system, city management and monitoring. - (Introduction stage) Introduction of a standard system for location analysis using a spatial big data platform - (Utilization stage) Reinforce the location analysis function through the advancement of the current Gyeonggi Real Estate Portal policy support function, focusing on the location analysis function. examine - (Expansion and advancement stage) Introduce a separate policy support system that can implement various spatial analysis functions necessary for spatial policy support as well as location analysis function Specialized entities are needed for system utilization and operation management. For the effective operation of the system, a long-term roadmap must be devised in Gyeonggi-do, and the budget must be secured and supported accordingly, and the system must be actively used as a policy. For continuous system utilization and maintenance, the data construction and update system must be consistently maintained by securing dedicated manpower, and a system for internalizing analysis tasks and establishing a space plan for system utilization must be prepared.

근골격계질환 예방을 위한 유해요인조사 결과보고 제도의 실효성 방안에 대한 연구

이신우(Shinwoo Lee),김유창(Yuchang Kim) 대한인간공학회 2020 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.39 No.4

Objective: The purpose of this study is to understand the appropriateness and disadvantages of the result reporting system about risk factors analysis and to find out how to improve the effectiveness of the result reporting system. Background: Although the risk factors analysis for preventing musculoskeletal disorders was conducted since 2003, the implementation rate was low in Korea. Recently, as the legal effectiveness of the risk factors analysis has been lowed due to the low implementation rate, the issue of legal obligation the reporting system about risk factors analysis has been raised. In order to protect all workers from musculoskeletal disorders, it was necessary to find out how to increase the implementation rate by legally mandating the result reporting system about risk factors analysis. Method: This study was conducted a questionnaire of 126 safety/health managers, workers, and management supervisors, safety/health agency workers, and business owners in various industries. The main contents of the questionnaire are appropriateness, advantages, disadvantages, and effectiveness of the result reporting system about risk factors analysis. Results: The results showed that the reliability of risk factors analysis would be increased by the implementation of the result reporting system. The cost support system about risk factors analysis would be needed because of the cost problem on the corporation. Conclusion: It was judged that plan for enforcing the legal obligation of the reporting system would be needed to enhance the effectiveness of risk factor analysis. In order to increase the reliability of the risk factors analysis, it was necessary to report to the Minister of Employment and Labor after confirming by worker representative. Also, it was considered that a cost support system would be necessary to activate the result reporting system about risk factor analysis. Application: These results can contribute to the improvement of the risk factor analysis and the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders. It can be used as the basic data for research on the result reporting system about risk factors analysis.