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최남희 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2024 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.25 No.1
As the fertility rate continues to decline, the number of births is falling sharply. Furthermore, the number of deaths is rapidly increasing due to aging. This study examines the future size of the population and its composition given the continuance of the fertility rate decline and the current population structure. The goal of the study is to explore the emergence of systemic dynamics over an extended time horizon. Using the system dynamics methodology, the causal feedback structures of natural population changes were analyzed. Additionally, a simulation model was developed by considering the feedback structures of delaying births (tempo effect), reducing the number of births (quantum effect), and aging. The results of the simulation model show that if the current population decline pattern and structure are left unaltered until 2100, the total population will be one-quarter of the current size, resulting in a mere 13 million people.
IMF 구조조정 상황에 따른 지방공무원의 직무만족 수준 변화와 영향요인 분석
최남희 충북연구원 2001 지역정책연구 Vol.12 No.2
Since the economic crisis in 1997, under the control of IMF, the Korean government has implemented a number of reforms in order to eliminate inefficiencies in both private and public sectors. But these structural and managerial reforms raise the question* is there any change signaling the decline of job satisfaction of public officers of local government. This paper presents an analysis of the changing level and determinants of job satisfaction of public officers of local government. In order to analysis the changing level of job satisfaction and its determinant factors, this paper was using panel data acquired from survey and adapting a multi-regression analysis technique, which was conducted after factor analysis. From the statistical analysis, this paper found two important facts: job satisfaction level, which was measured from 20 variables, was mostly decline at the level of local government public officers, and two extracted factor, which was including job security, amount of work, and autonomy of doing work, and recognition level in team were examined as a key independent factors of job satisfaction. -