가상가치평가법(CVM)을 이용한 국립공원 한라산 입장료 지불가치 추정

현이조,김송이,정철 한국관광학회 2020 관광학연구 Vol.44 No.3

본 연구의 목적은 이선선택형 가상가치평가법을 이용하여 국립공원 한라산의 입장료 지불가치를 추정하는 데 있다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 국립공원 한라산 입장료 지불용의액을 결정하는 설명변수를 규명하고자 하였다. 이러한 목적을 달성하기 위해 국립공원 한라산을 방문한 국내 관광객을 대상으로 목적표본추출방법을 이용하여 2018년 8월부터 9월까지 설문조사를 실시하였다. 가상가치평가법의 분석결과, 국립공원 한라산의 입장료 지불가치는 한번 방문 시 1인당 6,695원으로 나타났으며, 이를 2017년 국립공원 한라산의 총 방문객 수의 1일 기준으로 환산하면 연간 발생하는 총 경제적 가치는 67억 원에 이르는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 로짓모델 분석결과 제시금액, 연령, 탐방예약제 찬반여부가 국립공원 한라산의 입장료 지불의사에 영향을 미치는 중요한 설명변수로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 환경에 대한 태도를 직간접적으로 드러내 줄 수 있는 탐방예약제 찬반여부가 한라산 입장료 지불의도에 유의미한 영향관계를 미치는 것을 확인하였고, 이를 통해 환경정책 도입 시에 필요한 실무적 시사점을 제시하였다. The purpose of this study was to estimate the payment value of the Hallasan National Park admission fee using a dichotomous choice Contingent Valuation Method(CVM). Particularly, we examined explanatory variables that can determine the willingness to pay the entrance fee of the Hallasan National Park. Using purposeful sampling method, the survey was conducted with domestic tourists who have visited the Hallasan National park from August to September 2018. A total of 237 surveys were collected. The results of this study indicated that the payment value of the Hallasan National Park admission fee was estimated as KRW 6,695 per person/visit and the total amount of economic value was KRW 67 billion per year. The result of the logit model revealed that bid, age, and agreement (or disagreement) of the reservation system are important explanatory variables in predicting the payment value of the Hallasan National Park admission fee. This study confirmed that the agreement of the Hallasan National Park reservation system, which indirectly shows the attitude toward the environment, affects significantly the willingness to pay the park’s admission fee. The findings suggest several practical implications associated with implementing environmental policies.

무산소 탈질생물막반응조에서 2.4-DNP 생분해에 대한 연구

이조현 ( Jo Hyun Lee ),최혁순 ( Hyeok Sun Choi ) 한국수처리학회 2012 한국수처리학회지 Vol.20 No.3

Nitrophenois, used as intermediates in the production of dyes, explosives, and pesticides, are considered important water contaminants that are acutely toxic or carcinogen to humans. There are some reports about the anaerobic biodegradation of 2.4-DNP, However, There is little information about the biodegradation of 2, 4-DNP as a sole electron donor in an anoxic denitrification bioreactor, This research was carried out to investigate whether 2, 4-DNP can be used as a sole carbon source in the denitrification biofilm reactor under anoxic condition. When 26mg/L of 2, 4-DNP and 492mg/L of acetate were added, 443mg/L of nitrate was removed completely in the biofilm reactor. However, the average removal rate of 2, 4-DNP was 14%. Under acetate limitation condition, denitrification rate and 2, 4-DNP removal rate were dramatically decreased. After acetate influent was increased to sufficient concentration, denitrification rate was restored in the biofilm reactor.

현 기후예측시스템에서의 기온과 강수 계절 확률 예측 신뢰도 평가

현유경,박진경,이조한,임소민,허솔잎,함현준,이상민,지희숙,김윤재 한국기상학회 2020 대기 Vol.30 No.2

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1- 5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea)의 앙상블 확대를 통해 살펴본 신호대잡음의 역설적 특징(Signal-to-Noise Paradox)과 예측 스킬의 한계

현유경,박연희,이조한,지희숙,부경온 한국기상학회 2024 대기 Vol.34 No.1

This paper aims to provide a detailed introduction to the concept of the Ratio of Predictable Component (RPC) and the Signal-to-Noise Paradox. Then, we derive insights from them by exploring the paradoxical features by conducting a seasonal and regional analysis through ensemble expansion in KMA’s climate prediction system (GloSea). We also provide an explanation of the ensemble generation method, with a specific focus on stochastic physics. Through this study, we can provide the predictability limits of our forecasting system, and find way to enhance it. On a global scale, RPC reaches a value of 1 when the ensemble is expanded to a maximum of 56 members, underlining the significance of ensemble expansion in the climate prediction system. The feature indicating RPC paradoxically exceeding 1 becomes particularly evident in the winter North Atlantic and the summer North Pacific. In the Siberian Continent, predictability is notably low, persisting even as the ensemble size increases. This region, characterized by a low RPC, is considered challenging for making reliable predictions, highlighting the need for further improvement in the model and initialization processes related to land processes. In contrast, the tropical ocean demonstrates robust predictability while maintaining an RPC of 1. Through this study, we have brought to attention the limitations of potential predictability within the climate prediction system, emphasizing the necessity of leveraging predictable signals with high RPC values. We also underscore the importance of continuous efforts aimed at improving models and initializations to overcome these limitations.

RCP 기후변화 시나리오 산출에 이용된 국립기상연구소 기후모델(HadGEM2-AO)과 CMIP5 참여 모델의성능 평가 및 미래 전망

현유경,김민지,간순영,김준수,조천호,백희정,이효신,이조한 한국기상학회 2012 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2012 No.4

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석

현유경,이조한,신범철,최유나,김지영,이상민,지희숙,부경온,임소민,김혜리,류영,박연희,박형식,추성호,현승훤,황승언 한국기상학회 2022 대기 Vol.32 No.2

In this paper, the performance improvement for the new KMA’s Climate Prediction System (GloSea6), which has been built and tested in 2021, is presented by assessing the bias distribution of basic variables from 24 years of GloSea6 hindcasts. Along with the upgrade from GloSea5 to GloSea6, the performance of GloSea6 can be regarded as notable in many respects: improvements in (i) negative bias of geopotential height over the tropical and mid-latitude troposphere and over polar stratosphere in boreal summer; (ii) cold bias of tropospheric temperature; (iii) underestimation of mid-latitude jets; (iv) dry bias in the lower troposphere; (v) cold tongue bias in the equatorial SST and the warm bias of Southern Ocean, suggesting the potential of improvements to the major climate variability in GloSea6. The warm surface temperature in the northern hemisphere continent in summer is eliminated by using CDF-matched soil-moisture initials. However, the cold bias in high latitude snow-covered area in winter still needs to be improved in the future. The intensification of the westerly winds of the summer Asian monsoon and the weakening of the northwest Pacific high, which are considered to be major errors in the GloSea system, had not been significantly improved. However, both the use of increased number of ensembles and the initial conditions at the closest initial dates reveals possibility to improve these biases. It is also noted that the effect of ensemble expansion mainly contributes to the improvement of annual variability over high latitudes and polar regions.

일반 밀로 제조된 생면 스파게티 품질 특성

김선희,이조원,김보라,강재현,이동,윤소희,박지현,문보경 동아시아식생활학회 2014 동아시아식생활학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2014 No.11

관 · 학 · 연 공동 모델 개발을 위한 기후예측시스템 개발체계 제언

김윤재,이조한,현유경,이선용,임윤진 한국기상학회 2019 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2019 No.4

기상청 차기 기후예측시스템(GloSea6): 운영 체계 및 개선 사항

김혜리,이조한,현유경,황승언 한국기상학회 2021 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.10

국립기상과학원은 기상청 장기예보 서비스 지원을 목적으로 전지구 기후예측시스템 (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5; GloSea5)을 영국기상청으로부터 도입하여 현업 운영하고 있으며, 차기 버전인 GloSea6의 운영에 대비하여 구축 작업을 완료하였다. 본 연구는 GloSea6의 현업 운영 체계와 세부적인 수행과정을 소개하고, GloSea5와 비교하여 GloSea6에서 개선된 사항들을 제시함으로써, 향후 GloSea6를 활용한 연구 수행 시에 가이드라인으로 활용되고자 한다. 또한, 시험적으로 단기간 수행한 모델 결과를 바탕으로, 기존의 GloSea5 예측장과 비교하여 GloSea6 예측장의 모의 특성을 분석하였다. GloSea6의 현업 운영 시, 매일 00시에 8개 멤버의 예측장이 생산되며, 매월 1일, 9일, 17일, 25일 00시에 7개 멤버의 기후장이 생산될 예정이다. 이 때 off-line JULES를 이용하여 준실시간으로 토양수분을 초기화해주는 과정이 선행된다. GloSea6는 전지구 결합 구성의 3.2 버전(Global Coupled configuration 3.2; GC3.2)을 기반으로, 대기모델은 UM (Unified Model) vn11.5, 지면모델은 JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) vn5.6, 해양모델은 NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) vn3.6, 해빙모델은 CICE (Los Alamos Sea-ice Model) vn5.1.2를 채택하고 있는데, GC2.0을 기반으로 한 GloSea5에 비해 여러 가지 세부 구성요소들의 개선이 이루어졌다. 또한, 8개의 앙상블 멤버모의를 통해 2020년 6월의 전지구 월평균장 예측 성능을 GloSea5의 결과와 비교한 결과, 적도 지역에서 500 hPa 지위고도장, 남북풍의 동서평균장 개선이 있었으며, 해수면온도 모의에서도 열대와 중위도 지역에서 개선된 결과를 확인하였다. 향후 장기간의 기후모의자료 생산을 통해 GloSea6의 기후학적 모의 특성에 대한 체계적인 검증 또한 이루어질 예정이다.

Climate Change in the 21st Century Simulated by HadGEM2-AO under Representative Concentration Pathways

백희정,이조한,이효신,현유경,조춘호,권원태,Charline Marzin,간선영,김민지,최다희,이종화,이재호,부경온,강현석,변영화 한국기상학회 2013 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.49 No.5

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1oC/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4oC/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5oC/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1oC/+4.6% for RCP8.5,respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3oC between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.