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RISS 인기검색어
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- 저자 : Charline Marzin (검색결과 2 건)
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백희정,이조한,이효신,현유경,조춘호,권원태,Charline Marzin,간선영,김민지,최다희,이종화,이재호,부경온,강현석,변영화 한국기상학회 2013 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.49 No.5
We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1oC/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4oC/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5oC/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1oC/+4.6% for RCP8.5,respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3oC between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.
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성현민,김지선,심성보,서정빈,권상훈,선민아,문혜진,이재희,임윤진,부경온,김영미,이조한,이지우,김준수,Charline Marzin,변영화 한국기상학회 2021 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.57 No.4
The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMAproduces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMAAdvanced Community Earth system model (KACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea. The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.
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