논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

Aflatoxin B_1 투여가 急性 肝 病變에 미치는 영향에 對한 病理學的 硏究

장선문,이충식,강대영 충남대학교 의과대학 지역사회의학연구소 1989 충남의대잡지 Vol.16 No.1

In an attempt of elucidate the pathologic and histochemical changes of aflatoxin B_2-induced hepatie lesions, the present study in male Sprague-Dawley rats was undertaken to evalute the relation between pathologic change of the liver and histochemical changes of several enzymes : alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and succinic dehydrogenase at 3. 9. 24. 48. 72, and 144 hours after single administration of aflatoxin B_1 by gastric tube. The aflatoxin B_1 was dissolved in peanut oil(0.5㎎ aflatoxin B_1 to 0.5ml peanut oil). Grouop of male rats received aflatoxin B_1 1㎎ per ㎏ of body weight, respectively. Control animals were given a similar volume of peanut oil alone. The results on morphologic and histochemical changes were as follows: 1. The necrotic change of liver was mainly periportal, and it became most severe at 24 hours and was more prominent in the large dose group than the small dose group. 2. Biliary ductular cell proliferation started to appear within 72 hours and after became regressed later in the small dose group, but it remained approximately 144 hours after exposure in the large dose group. 3. Electron microscopically, all three groups showed irregular nuclear membrane and nucleolar change characterized by segregation of granular and fibrillar elements. All the group showed cytoplasmie changes such as dilatation of rough endoplasmic reticulum with detached ribosome, hyperplasia of smooth endoplasmic reticulum, increased numbers of lipid droplets and mitochondrial alteration. The above change in the large dose group was more severe than those of the small dose group. 4. In the histochemical study of experimental animals, there was a decrease in the intensity of the staining reaction of alkaline phosphatase and succinic dehydrogenase within 24 hours and a progressive decrease in staining intensity was noted at 144 hours. And then the staining intensity of the acid phosphatase was similar to that shown by the control animal. In summary, the data obtained by present experiments indicate aflatoxin B_1 exerts periportal necrosis of hepatic lobules accompanied by bile ductular cell proliferation, and inhibition of protein synthesis, as jedged by elertron microscopic and histochemical changes.

Causes and Predictive Factors Associated with "Diagnosis Changed" Outcomes in Patients Notified as Tuberculosis Cases in a Private Tertiary Hospital

Kang, Byung Ju,Jo, Kyung-Wook,Park, Tai Sun,Yoo, Jung-Wan,Lee, Sei Won,Choi, Chang-Min,Oh, Yeon-Mok,Lee, Sang-Do,Kim, Woo Sung,Kim, Dong Soon,Shim, Tae Sun The Korean Academy of Tuberculosis and Respiratory 2013 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.75 No.6

Background: The aim of our study was to evaluate the "diagnosis changed" rate in patients notified as tuberculosis (TB) on the Korean TB surveillance system (KTBS). Methods: A total of 1,273 patients notified as TB cases on the KTBS in one private tertiary hospital in 2011 were enrolled in the present study. Patients were classified into three groups: "diagnosis maintained", "diagnosis changed" (initially notified as TB, but ultimately diagnosed as non-TB), and "administrative error" (notified as TB due to administrative errors). Results: Excluding 17 patients in the "administrative error" group, the "diagnosis maintained" and "diagnosis changed" groups included 1,097 (87.3%) and 159 patients (12.7%), respectively. Common causes of "diagnosis changed" were nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease (51.7%, 61/118), and pneumonia (17.8%) in cases notified as pulmonary TB, and meningitis (19.5%, 8/41) and Crohn's disease (12.2%) in cases notified as extrapulmonary TB. Being older than 35 years of age (odds ratio [OR], 2.18) and a positive acid-fast bacilli stain (OR, 1.58) were positive predictors and a TB-related radiological finding (OR, 0.42) was a negative predictor for a "diagnosis changed" result via multivariate logistic regression analysis in pulmonary TB cases. Conclusion: Because of a high "diagnosis changed" rate in TB notifications to the KTBS, the TB incidence rate measured by the KTBS may be overestimated. Considering the worldwide trend toward increased NTM disease, the "diagnosis changed" rate may increase over time. Thus, when reporting the annual TB notification rate in Korea, the exclusion of "diagnosis changed" cases is desirable.

Predictive Risk Assessment Using Cooperation Concept for Collision Avoidance of Side Crash in Autonomous Lane Change Systems

Hyunsoo Lee,Chang Mook Kang,Wonhee Kim,Woo Young Choi,Chung Choo Chung 제어로봇시스템학회 2017 제어로봇시스템학회 국제학술대회 논문집 Vol.2017 No.10

We present an innovative approach to risk assessment using cooperation concept for collision avoidance of side crash for autonomous lane change system. The cooperation concept is proposed to check an available space in the target lane for lane change in a short period of the future. Before moving to the target lane, the ego vehicle needs to check whether the object vehicle is cooperative or not for the lane change. The object vehicles are indexed as cooperative driver (CD) or non-cooperative driver (NCD) through the conditions based on the relative longitudinal acceleration and the collision free time. If the object vehicle is CD, the ego vehicle moves toward the target lane within the original lane for the preparation of the lane change. The ego vehicle should keep its lateral position within the original lane until the situation for the lane change becomes safe. As soon as the risk assessment becomes safe, the lane change is performed. Therefore, lane change can be started in advance compared to the conventional methods. The proposed method was validated via computational simulation and experimental results.

전면문제중심학습이 치의학교육의 자기주도적 학습, 의사소통, 문제해결 능력에 미치는 영향

이강욱 ( Kang-wook Lee ),홍진실 ( Jin-sil Hong ),장기완 ( Kee-wan Chang ) 대한구강보건학회 2016 大韓口腔保健學會誌 Vol.40 No.4

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of problem-based learning (PBL) on dental education to dental students. The following were investigated in this study: 1. Does PBL improve the ability of self-directed learning? 2. Does PBL change communication ability? 3. Does PBL change the strategy of problem solving? Methods: The participants of this study were 39 students in the experimental group and 68 students in the control group. The measurement tools of this study were self-directed learning, communication, and problem solving abilities tests designed by the Korean Educational Development Institute. The data was analyzed by the two-way ANOVA and ANOVA with repeated measures. Results: In self-directed learning ability during 3 semesters, the experimental group showed a U-shape change but the control group showed a reverse U-shape change. In the experimental group, the selfdirected learning ability was decreased after one year (after the first and second semester). The level of communication ability decreased every day during the three semesters monitored in both the control and experimental groups. The level of communication ability in the experimental group continuously decreased during the three semesters, with the exception of one semester. Finally, for the problem solving ability during the three semesters, the experimental group showed a reverse U-shape change while the control group showed a U-shape change. In the experimental group, there was no change after two semesters. Conclusions: On the basis of the findings in this study, the following conclusions can be made. First, problem-based learning has a positive educational effect compared to didactic-based learning within one year. Second, the appropriate length of PBL is two semesters, or one year. It could be recommended that dental education in Korea should be combined or hybridized with PBL; for example, PBL could be used in combination with brief lectures or block lectures by teachers.

Causes and Predictive Factors Associated with “Diagnosis Changed” Outcomes in Patients Notified as Tuberculosis Cases in a Private Tertiary Hospital

( Byung Ju Kang ),( Kyung Wook Jo ),( Tai Sun Park ),( Jung Wan Yoo ),( Sei Won Lee ),( Chang Min Choi ),( Yeon Mok Oh ),( Sang Do Lee ),( Woo Sung Kim ),( Dong Soon Kim ),( Tae Sun Shim ) 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2013 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.75 No.6

Background: The aim of our study was to evaluate the “diagnosis changed” rate in patients notified as tuberculosis (TB) on the Korean TB surveillance system (KTBS). Methods: A total of 1,273 patients notified as TB cases on the KTBS in one private tertiary hospital in 2011 were enrolled in the present study. Patients were classified into three groups: “diagnosis maintained”, “diagnosis changed” (initially notified as TB, but ultimately diagnosed as non-TB), and “administrative error” (notified as TB due to administrative errors). Results: Excluding 17 patients in the “administrative error” group, the “diagnosis maintained” and “diagnosis changed” groups included 1,097 (87.3%) and 159 patients (12.7%), respectively. Common causes of “diagnosis changed” were nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease (51.7%, 61/118), and pneumonia (17.8%) in cases notified as pulmonary TB, and meningitis (19.5%, 8/41) and Crohn`s disease (12.2%) in cases notified as extrapulmonary TB. Being older than 35 years of age (odds ratio [OR], 2.18) and a positive acid-fast bacilli stain (OR, 1.58) were positive predictors and a TB-related radiological finding (OR, 0.42) was a negative predictor for a “diagnosis changed” result via multivariate logistic regression analysis in pulmonary TB cases. Conclusion: Because of a high “diagnosis changed” rate in TB notifications to the KTBS, the TB incidence rate measured by the KTBS may be overestimated. Considering the worldwide trend toward increased NTM disease, the “diagnosis changed” rate may increase over time. Thus, when reporting the annual TB notification rate in Korea, the exclusion of “diagnosis changed” cases is desirable.

Effect of Total Hip Arthroplasty on Ipsilateral Lower Limb Alignment and Knee Joint Space Width: Minimum 5-Year Follow-up

Choi Yun Seong,Park Jung-Wee,Kim Tae Woo,Kang Kee Soo,Lee Young-Kyun,Koo Kyung-Hoi,Chang Chong Bum 대한의학회 2023 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.38 No.20

Background: This study aimed to 1) assess the effect of total hip arthroplasty (THA) on coronal limb alignment, namely, the hip–knee–ankle angle (HKA), 2) identify factors that determine changes in the HKA, and 3) determine whether alignment changes influence the knee joint space width. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 266 limbs of patients who underwent THA. Three types of prostheses with neck shaft angles (NSAs) of 132°, 135°, and 138° were used. Several radiographic parameters were measured in the preoperative and final radiographs (at least 5 years after THA). A paired t-test was used to confirm the effect of THA on HKA change. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify radiographic parameters related to HKA changes following THA and changes in knee joint space width. Subgroup analyses were performed to reveal the effect of NSA change on the HKA change, and the proportion of total knee arthroplasty usage and changes in radiographic parameters between maintained joint space and narrowed joint space groups were compared. Results: The preoperative mean HKA was 1.4° varus and increased to 2.7° varus after THA. This change was related to changes in the NSA, lateral distal femoral angle, and femoral bowing angle. In particular, in the group with a decrease in NSA of > 5°, the preoperative mean HKA was largely changed from 1.4° varus to 4.6° varus after THA. The prostheses with NSA of 132° and 135° also led to greater varus HKA changes than those with an NSA of 138°. Narrowing of the medial knee joint space was related to changes in the varus direction of the HKA, decrease in NSA, increase in femoral offset. Conclusion: A large reduction in NSA can lead to considerable varus limb alignment after THA, which can have adverse effects on the medial compartment of the ipsilateral knee.

내시경적 점막절제술로 치험한 식도 과립상 세포종 1례

강혁주,김성욱,최석진,이중현,장재식,서영범,윤병구,박건욱,김성자,김용섭,강승완,이구,양창헌,이창우,김욱년,이광헌,서정일 동국대학교 의학연구소 2000 東國醫學 Vol.7 No.-

과립상 세포종은 Schwann 세포 기원으로 생각되며 인체에 비교적 드물게 발생한다. 과립상 세포종은 전신 어느 곳에서나 발견될 수 있으나 주로 혀, 구강, 피부 혹은 유방 등에서 호발하며 드물게 위장관에서 발견된다. 위장관에서는 식도에서 가장 호발하며 다음으로 위, 대장 순이다. 과립상 세포종은 대부분, 특히 위장관에서는 양성이며 소수의 악성 병변이 보고되었다. 이러한 이유와 함께 수술 전의 진단이 어렵기 때문에 과립상 세포종에 대한 근본적인 치료는 현재까지 외과적 절제술이다. 최근에 시도되는 치료방법들로는 내시경적 레이저 치료, 용종절제술, 내시경적 점막 절제술 등이 있다. 저자들은 상부 소화관 내시경검사를 시행하여 식도 과립상 세포종을 진단하고 내시경적 점막 절제술을 시행하여 합병증 없이 퇴원하여 현재 재발없이 경과 관찰중인 1례를 경험하였기에 보고하는 바이다. Granular cell tumors, which occur infrequently, are probably of Schwann cell origin. They can occur almost anywhere in the body but usually affect the tongue, oral cavity, skin, or breasts and are rarely found in the gastrointestinal tracts. The esophagus is the most frequent gastrointestinal site, followed by the stomach and the colon. Granular cell tumors are generally benign, especially in the gastrointestinal tract, some malignant lesions have been reported. For this reason, and also because preoperative diagnosis is difficult, the standard treatment for granular cell tumor has until now been surgical excision. In recent years, other therapeutic methods is endoscopic laser therapy (ELT), polypectiomy, endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR). We report a case of esophageal granular cell tumor which was diagnosed by an endoscopy and managed using an endoscopic mucosal resection without complication.

Investigation of channel mobility in AlGaN/GaN high-electron-mobility transistors

Chang, Sung-Jae,Kang, Hee-Sung,Lee, Jae-Hoon,Yang, Jie,Bhuiyan, Maruf,Jo, Young-Woo,Cui, Sharon,Lee, Jung-Hee,Ma, Tso-Ping Institute of Pure and Applied Physics 2016 Japanese Journal of Applied Physics Vol.55 No.4

<P>We have investigated the channel mobility in the gated region of a set of high-quality AlGaN/GaN high-electron-mobility transistors (HEMTs). The resistances in the contact, access, and gated regions were extracted from straightforward I-D(V-G) measurements on sets of HEMTs with four different gate-to-drain distances. By correcting for the effects of the contact and access resistances, much more accurate effective mobility curves in the gated region, compared to those reported in the past, have been obtained. The maximum effective mobility in that region has been found to be 1100cm(2)V(-1) s(-1) at carrier density n(s) = 7 x 10(12)cm(-2) at room temperature. We have extracted the mobility curves in a wide range of temperatures (80 to 520 K) and carrier concentrations (up to 1.3 x 10(13)cm(-2)). Our systematic measurements have revealed various dominant scattering mechanisms as the temperature and carrier concentration change. (C) 2016 The Japan Society of Applied Physics</P>

만성 신부전증 환자의 중중 고혈당에 따른 의식 변화 결정에 대한 연구

위형중,이창범,박성광,강성귀,임천규,박은주,윤경택,한상웅,안유헌,김호중· 대한신장학회 2000 대한신장학회잡지 Vol.19 No.6