Clinical Characteristic of Respiratory Tract Infections in Children during Pandemic Influenza (H1N1 2009) in Korea

김기환,박혜진,김동수 대한감염학회 2010 Infection and Chemotherapy Vol.42 No.2

Background: Since initial emergence on pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) in Mexico on March 2009, the first case of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) occured on 2 May 2009 in Korea. We describe the clinical characteristics of childhood patients from pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) and other concurrent respiratory pathogens during early phase of the pandemic influenza in Korea. Materials and Methods: We have retrospectively studied 959 patients under age of 15 years who have visited Department of Emergency Medicine for a diagnostic test of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) or treatment of flu-like illness between May and September of 2009. The pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) was detected via realtime RT-PCR and other respiratory viruses were detected via multiplex RT-PCR. Results: A total of 959 patients visited Department of Emergency Medicine at Severance Hospital. Of them, 562 were tested; 124 (12.7%) were positive for pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009). Confirmed patients of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) were relatively older than non-H1N1 patients (7.5 years of age vs 4.6 years, P<0.001). Among histories or symptoms of patients with flu-like illness,contact history (80%) with another patient with pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009)was an important clue of the infection in early phase of pandemic. Comparing with hospitalized patients with respiratory tract infections due to other causes, lower ESR (32.9±23.5 mm/hour vs 11.5±9.2 mm/hour), hyperkalemia (4.2±0.3 mmol/L vs 5.2±3 mmol/L) and hyponatremia (137.2±2.5 mmol/L vs 124±40.5 mmol/L)were significant laboratory finding and higher cholesterol and GTP were noticed in pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009). Ten confirmed patients with pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) were hospitalized due to pneumonia and all of them were resolved without any complication. Conclusions: Respiratory tract infections were caused not only by pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) virus but also various respiratory viruses. Hospitalized patients, confirmed as pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009), showed a good prognosis. Age and contact history were distinct features and could be an important clue to differentiate causes in patients with febrile respiratory symptoms.

대유행 인플루엔자(H1N1 2009) 초기에 소아 호흡기 감염의 임상특징

김기환,박혜진,김동수 대한감염학회 2010 감염과 화학요법 Vol.42 No.2

Background: Since initial emergence on pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) in Mexico on March 2009, the first case of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) occured on 2 May 2009 in Korea. We describe the clinical characteristics of childhood patients from pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) and other concurrent respiratory pathogens during early phase of the pandemic influenza in Korea. Materials and Methods: We have retrospectively studied 959 patients under age of 15 years who have visited Department of Emergency Medicine for a diagnostic test of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) or treatment of flu-like illness between May and September of 2009. The pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) was detected via realtime RT-PCR and other respiratory viruses were detected via multiplex RT-PCR. Results: A total of 959 patients visited Department of Emergency Medicine at Severance Hospital. Of them, 562 were tested; 124 (12.7%) were positive for pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009). Confirmed patients of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) were relatively older than non-H1N1 patients (7.5 years of age vs 4.6 years, P<0.001). Among histories or symptoms of patients with flu-like illness, contact history (80%) with another patient with pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) was an important clue of the infection in early phase of pandemic. Comparing with hospitalized patients with respiratory tract infections due to other causes, lower ESR (32.9±23.5 mm/hour vs 11.5±9.2 mm/hour), hyperkalemia (4.2±0.3 mmol/ L vs 5.2±3 mmol/L) and hyponatremia (137.2±2.5 mmol/L vs 124±40.5 mmol/L) were significant laboratory finding and higher cholesterol and GTP were noticed in pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009). Ten confirmed patients with pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) were hospitalized due to pneumonia and all of them were resolved without any complication. Conclusions: Respiratory tract infections were caused not only by pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) virus but also various respiratory viruses. Hospitalized patients, confirmed as pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009), showed a good prognosis. Age and contact history were distinct features and could be an important clue to differentiate causes in patients with febrile respiratory symptoms.

How Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Mobility, Land Use, and Destination Selection? Lesson from Seoul, Korea

이지원,김태형,박윤미,정형철,Wiwandari Handayani,이희정,윤동근,Jen Te Pai 한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원 2023 LHI journal of land, housing, and urban affairs Vol.14 No.4

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant social changes through government prevention and control measures, changes in people's risk perceptions, and lifestyle changes. In response, urban inhabitants changed their behaviors significantly, including their preferences for transportation modes and urban spaces in response to government quarantine policies and concerns over the potential risk of infection in urban spaces. These changes may have long-lasting effects on urban spaces beyond the COVID-19 pandemic or they may evolve and develop new forms. Therefore, this study aims to explore the potential for urban spaces to adapt to the present and future pandemics by examining changes in urban residents' preferences in travel modes and urban space use due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study found that overall preferences for travel modes and urban spaces significantly differ between the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. During the pandemic, preferences for travel modes and urban spaces has decreased, except for privately owned vehicles and green spaces, which are perceived to be safe from transmission, show more favorable than others. Post-pandemic preferences for travel modes and urban spaces are less favorable than pre-pandemic with urban spaces being five times less favorable than transportation. Although green spaces and medical facilities that were positively perceived during the pandemic are expected to return to the pre-pandemic preference level, other factors of urban spaces are facing a new-normal. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on urban residents' preferences for travel modes and urban space use. Understanding these changes is crucial for developing strategies to adapt to present and future pandemics and improve urban resilience.

팬데믹과 극장 지원 정책에 관한 메카니즘 설계

우석훈 ( Woo Suk-hoon ) 한국연극교육학회 2021 연극교육연구 Vol.38 No.-

The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease (COVID) 19 gives us a serious disaster globally. The optimism of the early days of the pandemic disappeared, and it is uncertain that it will be completely finished this year in Korea, even though vaccination has already begun. Pandemic, compared to the other disasters like typhoon or earthquake, has some special characteristics : high uncertainty of prediction and very long period of damage. Main damages of other disasters are concentrated in the early stage. In Korea, the social distancing is still maintained in control level 2. In France, third lockdown has just begun due to increasing corona cases, even though vaccination is going on. The policy to the corona pandemic, which has extremely high uncertainty not only about the scale but also the duration, as a disaster, can be divided into two parts: ths virus control to overcome the pandemic and the economic policy to reduce economic losses. There is still a lot of controversy to the effectiveness of Korean Government’s virus control. Any way, Korea is better than Japan in COVID 19 control. However, the economic expenditure of Korean government is only 22% compared to the Japan. The Korean government pandemic expenditure is not enough to absorb the damages caused by COVID 19. We do not have enough experiences about the pandemic policies. Moreover, the measurement of the economic impact can not be made in real time, and is inevitably incomplete due to many indirect effects such as global value chain and inter-industrial effects. Culture and arts are the fields that are directly affected by the physical impact of social distancing during the pandemic session, but their role in economic system is often under-estimated. It seems that many damaged sector by pandemic feel that the government supports are insufficient. There is not exact scheme or method to evaluate the economic damage in times of pandemic and the lack of experiences make solutions much difficult. However, it seems even more difficult in the field of culture. The government's subsidy through the supplementary government budget has already been executed four times in 2020, and the first supplementary budget plan in 2021 was passed by National Assembly in March. If the number of cases per day, which is currently about 500, augments more, the virus control authorities may raise the control level. Naturally, the level of social distancing will be higher than now, and the 6th supplementary government expenditure plan may be prepared. In that case, will the support policy for the culture sector be increased more to cope with the pandemic damage? In reality, it culture sector is not main field during pandemic period, even though social distancing touched severely theaters which is the core of culture economy. Support for the cultural sector by economic authorities was too passive and limited. In Korea, five pandemic supplementary budget plans have been made at the central government level so far, event though the total amount is largely inferior compared to that of the other OECD countries. Among them, support for culture was mainly focused on employment and freelance support, mainly actors, writers and staffs. In addition, there was subsidy for theater ticking and management support in the culture field, but it is insufficient compared to the size of the pandemic economic damage. We need to take more attention to develop the policy support scheme for the theaters, which is under-estimated in economic policy. Is it impossible to design a direct support mechanism for theaters that suffered significant economic losses due to social distancing? Estimated by 2020 ticket sales score, the amount of damage of theaters in the field of performing arts such as theater or dance is 258.9 billion won. If we do the same type of work for the movie market, the damage from movie theater sales in 2021 is about 1.4 trillion won. Based on this economic damage of theaters, we can design a theater support mechanism caused by the social distancing of pandemic. In the control level 2 of the pandemic, the social distancing of theater is to sit space by space. In this case, only 50% of the total audience can enter in the full level. In the case of performing arts such as theater, in general, 70% of audience is usually considered as the break-even point. The gap between the full seat level in social distancing 50% and the break-even point 70% is 20%. Subsidy to this gap is the simplest mechanism to help theaters during the pandemic social distancing. In control level 2.5, the seat distance is doubled. Only 30-40% of audiences can enter depending on the seats placement of each theater. We can design the theater support policy in a similar way. In control level 3, theaters will be closed. In this case, support mechanism could be designed based on production cost, such as labor and fixed costs, rather than ticket sales. In the same way, you can also design theater support for movie market, which becomes much more complicated than the theater performed in only one theater. In the case of independent films and artistic films, the support rate can be augmented in favor of artistic efforts. If one movie occupies too many theaters, the support rate may be lowered. Compared to the other OECD countries, Korea used relatively low govermental budget for pandemic economic support. We could say that there is still a room for the additional financial expenditure. And there is not meaningful policy in the cultural sector, especially in the theater support, because social consensus and discussions are not sufficient in this field. If we think the special characteristics of culture sector in national economy, more discussion will be needed to the theater support.

코로나19 팬데믹이 원가의 비대칭성에 미치는 영향

김성환 ( Kim Sung-hwan ) 한국세무회계학회 2021 세무회계연구 Vol.- No.69

[연구목적] 본 연구는 코로나19 팬데믹이 원가의 비대칭성에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 구체적으로 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 원가의 하방경직성이 강화되었는지, 혹은 약화되었는지를 실증한다. 코로나19 팬데믹에 대한 경영자의 기대에 따라서 원가의 비대칭성이 달라질 수 있다. 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 매출액의 감소가 일시적이며 조만간 회복될 것이라 경영자가 기대한다면 기정 자원을 조정하기 보다는 유지하려 할 것이다. 이러한 경우 원가의 하방경직성은 강화될 수 있다. 반대로 코로나 19 팬데믹 이후 매출액의 감소가 지속될 것으로 예상하는 경우 경영자는 기정자원을 줄이는 의사결정을 할 것이며, 원가의 하방경직성은 약화될 수 있다. [연구방법] 유가증권 시장과 코스닥 시장에 상장된 기업을 대상으로 코로나19 팬데믹 이전(2018년, 2019년)과 코로나19 팬데믹 이후(2020년)의 원가행태를 비교한다. 원가의 비대칭성과 관련되어 매출액과 판매관리비를 활용한 Anderson et al.(2003)의 모형을 사용하여 다변량 회귀분석을 수행한다. [연구결과] 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 원가의 하방경직성은 강화된 것으로 실증되었다. 경영자가 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 매출액의 감소를 일시적인 것으로 판단하고 조만간 회복될 것으로 기대하여 기정자원을 조정하지 않고 유지하면서 하방경직성이 강화된 것으로 해석된다. 코로나19 이전과 코로나 19 이후를 각각 2018년과 2020년으로 설정한 추가분석과 코스닥 시장 소속 기업만을 대상으로 한 추가분석에서도 주된 분석과 동일한 결과를 확인하였다. [연구의 시사점] 본 연구는 팬데믹 상황이 기업의 회계정보에 미치는 영향을 살펴보는 초기 탐색적 연구로 의미가 있으며, 향후 예기치 못한 팬데믹 상황에서 본 연구의 결과가 기업 운영 차원의 통찰을 제공할 것으로 기대한다. 또한 경영 여건과 원가의 비대칭성 간의 관계를 살펴보는 선행연구에 팬데믹 상황이라는 경영 여건을 추가하는 누적적 연구로서도 의미가 크다. 그리고 경영자의 기대가 원가의 비대칭성에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 주장에 팬데믹이라는 특수한 상황에서의 실증적 증거를 제시하는 차원에서도 학문적 의미가 있다. [Purpose] The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the asymmetric cost behavior. Specifically, I investigate whether cost stickiness is strengthened or weakened after the COVID-19 pandemic. Asymmetric cost behavior may vary depending on management expectations for business conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. If management expects that the decline in sales after the COVID-19 pandemic is temporary and will recover soon, they will try to maintain rather than adjust committed resources. In this case, the cost stickiness would be strengthened. Conversely, if the decline in sales is expected to continue after the COVID-19 pandemic, the management will make a decision to reduce committed resources, and the cost stickiness would be weaken. [Methodology] I compare cost behavior before the COVID-19 pandemic (2018, 2019) and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) for companies listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets. Multivariate regression analysis is performed using the model of Anderson et al.(2003). [Findings] The results of this study show that the cost stickiness was strengthened after the COVID-19 pandemic. It is interpreted that the cost stickiness was strengthened as the management expected that the decrease in sales after the COVID-19 pandemic was temporary and maintained committed resources without adjusting it in anticipation of a quick recovery in sales. [Implications] This study is meaningful as an initial exploratory study to examine the impact of the pandemic on corporate accounting information, and it is expected that the results of this study will provide insight into corporate operations in an unexpected pandemic situation. In addition, it is meaningful as a cumulative study that adds the management condition of a pandemic situation to the previous studies examining the relationship between management conditions and asymmetric cost behavior.

코로나19 이후 국제보건법과 팬데믹 조약

박진아 국제법평론회 2023 국제법평론 Vol.- No.65

Since the outbreak of COVID–19, the process of considering a treaty for pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response has been entirely led by World Health Organization (WHO) member states. To overcome the fundamental limitations of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR 2005) system, it is possible to consider a more comprehensive revision of the IHR, perhaps even more drastic than the 2005 revision. Alternatively, a new fundamental and comprehensive treaty for pandemic response could be considered, independent of any revision of the IHR. The WHO and its member states have chosen the latter option and are now pursuing a two–track legislative process to adopt a new pandemic treaty in parallel with some revisions to the IHR. This article examines the international community's efforts to improve international health law for pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response in the wake of the COVID–19 pandemic. To do so, it first examines the failures of international health rules and lessons learned from COVID–19, and then analyzes the progress of the WHO's Member States in revising IHR and negotiating a draft pandemic treaty, as well as the differences in legal basis articles under the WHO’s Constitution. The IHR have not responded effectively to the COVID–19 pandemic, and as Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the IHR during the COVID–19 response, revision of the Regulations seems inevitable. However, IHR revision alone are not enought to address the problems that have arisen during the pandemic. While a major revision of the IHR could be considered, it would be more difficult to incorporate new legislation into the existing framework of the IHR to create a harmonized and unified normative framework than to create a new treaty. Furthermore, maintaining the form of the Rules in Article 21 is not the best option, despite the fact that the WHO’s Constitution authorizes the Organization to enter into “conventions or agreements” under Article 19. In this regard, amending the International Health Regulations and creating a new pandemic treaty at the same time is the most effective legislative approach in the current context to prevent, prepare for, and respond to diseases that could cause an international health crisis. This article reviews the highlights of 「the Zero Draft of the WHO convention, agreement or other international instrument on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (“WHO CA+”)」, published in February 2023, for consideration by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB). The Zero Draft provides a framework for legal regulation at all levels of the pandemic response and is extensive in its substantive content. The Zero Draft emphasizes equity at all levels and provides concrete measures to achieve it. It covers and documents many issues relevant to pandemic governance, from crisis–resilient health systems and a strong health workforce to measures related to one health and antibiotic resistance, health literacy, and even social determinants of health. The Zero Draft is completely open–ended, meaning that it could change over the course of future negotiations, but it is unlikely to change much in terms of the main content that will be included in a pandemic treaty.

팬데믹 관련 환경인자 및 현황 분석 기반 환경 정책방향 연구

서양원,배현주,이소라,박주영,이상엽,심창섭,채여라,오규림,한선영 한국환경연구원 2021 사업보고서 Vol.2021 No.-

Ⅰ. 연구의 배경 및 목적 □ 연구 배경 및 필요성 ○ 코로나19 팬데믹은 글로벌 경제적 위기와 함께 건강, 에너지, 폐기물 등 광범위한 사회·환경적 영향이 초래할 것으로 전망되며, 이와 같은 패러다임 전환적 변화에 대응하기 위한 체계의 마련이 요구됨 ○ 이를 위해서는 기후변화 등 환경인자 및 사회·경제적 요인과 감염병 팬데믹 간의 상호 연관성 및 관련 변화에 대한 연구가 필수적이라 할 수 있음 □ 연구 목적 ○ 본 연구의 목적은 팬데믹 발생·확산의 요인이 되는 환경인자를 도출함과 동시에 환경 분야별 영향을 분석하고, 궁극적으로는 환경 분야의 팬데믹 대응체계 및 정책기반 구축방안을 제시하는 것임 - 본 연구는 총 3차 연도로 추진되며, 2021년 수행한 1차 연도 연구는 팬데믹 발생·확산의 요인이 되는 환경인자 및 팬데믹의 영향을 받는 환경 분야에 대한 진단·분석에 중점을 둠 - 2차 및 3차 연도 연구에서는 팬데믹 발생-대유행-위드 코로나 등 전 과정에 대해 진행시기별 환경요인 및 영향을 확대 분석하고, 이를 토대로 향후 팬데믹 발생시 환경 분야 대응체계와 정책방안 마련을 위한 기반을 구축할 예정임 Ⅱ. 팬데믹 발생 및 확산의 환경요인 분석 □ 팬데믹 발생·확산의 환경요인 현황 분석 ○ 코로나19의 발생 및 확산과 환경요인에 대한 선행연구를 분석하고 활용가능한 국내 자료 존재 여부를 고려하여 팬데믹과 환경요인 간의 연관성을 살펴봄 ○ 국내 코로나19 확진자 추이를 분석한 결과 유행 단계별 증감이 나타났으며, 지역별로 유의한 군집 경향 및 상대위험비의 변화를 확인함 ○ 코로나19 팬데믹과 환경인자 간 시·군·구별로 공간적 분포 및 연관성을 초기 분석한 결과 코로나19 확진자 수는 PM2.5, 화학물질 대기배출량, 의료폐기물 발생량 및 교통 밀도와 유의한 양의 상관성을 나타냈으며, 산림비율과는 음의 상관성을 보임 □ 팬데믹 발생·확산의 환경요인 관련 시사점 ○ 현재로서는 백신 접종 등 방역 대책, 바이러스 돌연변이 발생 및 사회·경제적 인자 등 외생 변수로 인해 팬데믹과 환경요인 간 상관관계 분석에 불확실성이 존재함 ○ 팬데믹과 환경요인, 위드 코로나 등 시기별 변화에 대해 지속적인 모니터링과 추가분석이 요구됨 Ⅲ. 팬데믹 발생으로 인한 환경 분야별 동향, 영향 분석 및 전망 □ 에너지 수요 변화와 재생에너지 시장 동향 분석 및 전망 ○ 코로나19 진행상황 및 경기회복에 대한 불확실성이 존재하나, 팬데믹은 국내외적으로 경제활동, 에너지 수요, 온실가스 배출량에 영향을 미친 것으로 파악됨 ○ 거시적 관점에서 분석한 결과 코로나19 발생으로 에너지 수요 및 온실가스 배출량이 뚜렷하게 변화하였고, 에너지원별·부문별로 변화 양상이 다르게 나타났으며, 추후 가구 에너지 수요 변화 등의 미시적인 연구 또한 필요함 ○ 재생에너지 산업의 경우 포스트 코로나 시기의 전망은 중단기적으로 불확실 요인이 공존하지만, 중장기적으로는 재생에너지의 안정적 확산이 에너지 시장의 불안정성을 해결하는 방안이 될 수 있으며, 전 세계적으로 탄소중립을 향한 파리협정 이행방안들이 구체화되면서 재생에너지 확대가 메가트랜드로 작용해 긍정적일 것으로 판단됨 □ 의료 및 포장재 폐기물 현황 분석 및 정책적 전망 ○ 팬데믹 발생으로 온라인 쇼핑 및 배달음식에 사용되는 포장재, 방역 관련 1회용품 사용 증가 등으로 인한 플라스틱 및 종이 폐기물 발생량이 증가함 ○ 정책적 측면에서는 포장재 감량 정책 중 1회용품 관련 정책은 팬데믹에 의해 사용 증가로 인하여 부정적인 영향이 있으나, 해당 정책이 지속되면 발생 저감 및 재활용성 제고 측면에서 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타남 ○ ‘플라스틱 용기 타 재질 전환’과 ‘대체 플라스틱 전환’ 정책의 경우 팬데믹에 영향을 받지 않으나, 기존의 플라스틱 재질 용기의 친환경적 전환을 통해 포장재 폐기물 발생 억제 및 재활용 확대로 긍정적 효과가 있을 것으로 전망됨 ○ 향후 코로나19 관련 폐기물에 대한 국내외 현황 비교 및 팬데믹 시기별 변화 분석을 통해 국제적 추세 및 위드 코로나 시대에 부합하는 정책방안을 수립할 필요가 있음 □ 환경보건 분야 현황 분석 및 전망 ○ 국외 현황 분석 결과 방역 및 백신 접종, 돌연변이 등의 외생 변수가 코로나19의 발생 및 확산에 결정적인 영향을 끼치는 것으로 파악됨 ○ 이에 팬데믹과 환경요인의 건강영향에 대한 연관성 등에 대해 환경보건학적으로 정확한 분석을 하기 위해서는 팬데믹 시기별 추가자료 확보를 통해 외생 변수에 대한 추가연구가 필요하며, 국내 코로나19 현황 및 관련 환경요인에 대한 접근성 개선과 구체적인 정보제공이 병행되어야 함 ○ 코로나19 관련 마스크 및 살균·소독제 등 화학제품 공급 부족으로 인한 방역 문제와 화학제품 노출 증가를 고려한 노출 평가와 위해 관리방안이 동시에 마련되어야 함 ○ 전문가 설문 결과 팬데믹 전후 환경보건 및 화학물질 정책 분야별 중요도에 변화가 예상되며, 팬데믹 발생 시 환경보건 정책의 우선순위를 선정하고 관련 추진사항을 세부적으로 도출할 필요가 있을 것임 □ 취약성 관련 현황 분석 및 전망 ○ 코로나19 등 감염병 팬데믹 발생 시 실내공기 질, 물 사용, 폐기물 처리, 도시구조 등 생활환경 전반에 변화가 예상되며, 기존 취약집단의 취약성이 심화되거나 새로운 취약계층의 발생이 우려됨 ○ 팬데믹으로 인한 환경피해 최소화를 위해서는 취약 분야 및 집단에 대해 평가기법을 팬데믹 대응체계의 일환으로 개발하고, 취약성에 따른 정책 우선순위 선정 및 대응방안을 마련할 필요가 있음 Ⅳ. 팬데믹 관련 환경 분야 인식 변화 및 실태 조사 □ 팬데믹 관련 환경 분야 국민 인식 변화 및 실태 분석 ○ 문헌분석 및 자료조사와 함께 코로나19 팬데믹으로 인한 환경 관련 위해 인식과 전후 행동 변화 및 실태 조사를 통해 일상생활 속에서 국민이 체감한 환경 분야별 주요 영향을 파악함 ○ 설문조사 결과 코로나19 팬데믹은 환경보건 등 건강, 에너지, 폐기물 및 생활환경 전반에 영향을 끼친 것으로 나타남 □ 시사점 ○ 향후 환경 분야의 팬데믹 대응체계 구축 시 대상이 되는 환경 분야 및 모니터링 항목을 선정하기 위하여 팬데믹 진행시기에 따른 인식 및 실태 변화를 비교 분석하고, 팬데믹 시기별 특성과 정책 수요를 도출할 필요가 있음 Ⅴ. 향후 연구 추진방향 □ 코로나19 시기별 국내외 환경요인 및 영향 분석 ○ 1차 연도에서 코로나19 발생과 환경인자 사이의 관계를 분석한 결과, 팬데믹의 영향을 받은 것으로 확인된 분야이며 국제적으로 해당 분야 간 정책 연계가 강조되고 있는 건강, 에너지 및 폐기물에 대한 심층적인 연구가 요구됨 ○ 코로나19 발생, 대유행기(1~4차) 및 위드 코로나 시대 등 시기별로 팬데믹 이벤트와 자연·사회적 환경인자를 분석하고 유의한 상관관계에 있는 건강, 에너지 및 폐기물 분야의 주요 인자를 도출할 필요가 있음 ○ 또한 에너지 분야의 경우 국내 코로나19 발생 현황이 개별 가구 또는 지역의 에너지 수요에 미치는 영향 분석이 필요하며, 미시 자료를 사용해 코로나19의 지역별 상황에 따른 개별 가구 또는 지역의 에너지 수요 변화 양상 분석을 통해 팬데믹으로 발생가능한 변화에 대한 시사점을 도출할 수 있음 ○ 폐기물 분야에서는 팬데믹과 위드 코로나 시대의 소비 변화와 폐기물 현황을 분석하고, 코로나19 관련 폐기물에 대해 국제적 현황과 우리나라의 현황을 비교분석하여 국제적 추세와 위드 코로나 시대를 반영한 제언을 마련할 필요가 있음 ○ 이와 함께 후속사업에서도 설문조사를 통해 환경 분야의 팬데믹 영향에 대한 인식 및 실태 변화를 파악할 예정이며, 이를 토대로 팬데믹 진행시기별 특성과 시기에 따라 우선적으로 다루어야 할 환경 세부 분야 및 정책 수요를 도출할 수 있음 □ 팬데믹 시기별 환경 분야 대응체계 및 정책 거버넌스 구축방안 마련 ○ 이와 같은 건강, 에너지 및 폐기물 분야에 대한 분석 결과를 토대로 코로나19뿐만 아니라 향후 발생가능한 팬데믹에 대한 시기별 대응체계를 구축할 필요가 있음 ○ 이를 위해 국내 코로나19 시기별 환경 분야 대응 현황과 WHO 감염병 팬데믹 대응 국제협약 진행상황 등 국제 대응 동향에 대한 분석이 요구됨 ○ 또한 팬데믹 대응체계의 감시 및 대응 수단으로 환경 분야에서 팬데믹에 취약한 대상을 선정하고 취약성 평가를 위한 기법 개발 및 정보 인프라를 구축할 필요가 있음 ○ 이와 함께 대응체계의 정책 연계를 위한 팬데믹 시기별 대응정책 수립 절차 및 정책 이행을 위한 거버넌스 구축방안이 함께 제시되어야 함 Ⅰ. Research Background and Purpose □ Background and significance ○ The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to cause a wide range of social and environmental impacts in sectors such as health, energy, and waste along with the global economic crisis, and systems to respond to such paradigm shifts are required. ○ For this, it is essential to study the interrelationship between environmental factors such as climate change and socioeconomic factors with outbreaks of pandemic diseases and related changes. □ Research purpose ○ The purpose of this study is to identify environmental factors that can cause the outbreak and spread of a pandemic, analyze the impact by environmental field, and ultimately suggest a plan to build a system for responding to a pandemic which can aid in framing relevant policies. - This study will be carried out for a total of three years. In the first year, the research focused on environmental factors that can cause and spread pandemics and examined and analyzed the environmental fields affected by a pandemic. - In the second and third years, we plan to further analyze environmental factors and their effects in each phase of the pandemic including preand post-pandemic (‘Living with COVID-19’) period. Based on this, we aim to build a foundation for preparing environmental response systems and policy plans in the event of a pandemic in the future. Ⅱ. Analysis of Environmental Factors Associated with the Outbreak and Spread of a Pandemic □ Analysis of the current status of environmental factors in the outbreak and spread of the pandemic ○ We aimed to analyze previous research on the outbreak and spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and environmental factors, and examine the relationship between the pandemic and environmental factors based on available domestic research. ○ We found variations in the number of patients in each stage of the epidemic and confirmed significant changes in the clustering tendency and relative risk by region. ○ The initial analysis of the spatial distribution and association between the COVID-19 pandemic and environmental factors by city, county, and district revealed that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases had a significant positive correlation with PM2.5, chemical air emissions, amount of medical waste generated, and traffic density, and had a negative correlation with the forest proportion. □ Implications related to environmental factors associated with the outbreak and spread of a pandemic ○ Currently, the correlation between the pandemic and environmental factors is unclear due to exogenous variables such as quarantine measures, vaccination status, virus mutations, and socioeconomic factors. ○ Continuous monitoring and additional analysis on changes by stage of the pandemic and environmental factors such as the “Living with COVID-19” policy are required. Ⅲ. Trends, Impact, and Prospect by Environmental Sector with respect to the Outbreak of a Pandemic □ Changes in energy demand and the trend analysis and the prospect of renewable energy market ○ There are uncertainties about the progress of COVID-19 and economic recovery. Still, the pandemic is believed to have affected economic activity, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions both locally and internationally. ○ Macroscopic evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic revealed that energy demand and greenhouse gas emission levels have changed markedly due to the outbreak of COVID-19, and the patterns of changes by energy source and sector were different. Microscopic studies on changes in household energy demand and so on will also be needed in the future. ○ Changes in the levels of consumption of renewable energy are unclear as yet. Nevertheless, we believe that in the long run, stable diffusion of renewable energy could aid in stabilizing the energy market. As implementation plans for the Paris Climate Agreement toward carbon neutrality are actualized worldwide, the expansion of use of renewable energy is expected to be a positive megatrend. □ Analysis and policy outlook on medical and packaging waste ○ Due to the outbreak of the pandemic, the amount of plastic and paper waste generated has increased owing to the increase in the use of packaging materials used for online shopping and food delivery and the use of disposable items related to quarantine. ○ From a policy point of view, among the policies to reduce packaging materials, the pandemic has had a negative impact on policies about disposable products. However, if the policy on reducing packaging material is continuously implemented, it would have a positive impact on reduction and enhancing recyclability. ○ The policies that promote the “replacing of plastics with other materials for food containers” and “switch to alternative plastics” have not been affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, these policies are expected to have a positive effect by reducing the generation of packaging material waste and expanding recycling through the eco-friendly conversion of existing plastic containers. ○ In the future, it is necessary to establish a policy in line with international trends and the ‘COVID-19’ era by comparing the domestic and international status of COVID-19-related waste generation and analyzing changes by stage of the pandemic. □ Analysis of the current status of environmental health and prospect ○ The analysis of the international situations during the pandemic revealed that exogenous variables such as quarantine, vaccination, and variants have a decisive influence on the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. ○ Therefore, to accurately analyze the relationship between a pandemic and the health effects by environmental factor, it is necessary to secure additional data for each stage of the pandemic and to conduct further research on exogenous variables. Assessment of the current status of COVID-19 in Korea and related environmental factors should be improved, and specific information should be provided. ○ Problems in prevention caused by the shortage of supply of masks and chemical products such as sanitizers and disinfectants must be considered. At the same time, plans for exposure assessment and risk management due to an increase in exposure to chemical products should be prepared. ○ According to the expert survey, changes in the environmental health and chemical policy fields are expected after the pandemic. In the event of a pandemic, it will be necessary to prioritize environmental health policies and establish related actions in detail. □ Analysis of vulnerability and prospect ○ When a pandemic such as COVID-19 breaks out, changes in the overall living environment including indoor air quality, water use, waste treatment, and urban structure are expected, and the vulnerability of the existing vulnerable groups may increase or new vulnerable groups may emerge. ○ To minimize the environmental damage caused by the pandemic, it is necessary to develop evaluation techniques for vulnerable areas and groups as part of the pandemic response system, select policy priorities according to vulnerabilities, and prepare plans. Ⅳ. Investigation of Changes in Awareness and Status of the Environmental Field related to the Pandemic □ Analysis of changes in public perception and the current situation in the environmental field related to the pandemic ○ In addition to a literature review and data research, we identified major environmental impacts and changes in daily lives of the public by investigating their perception on environmental hazards caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and changes in behaviors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. ○ According to the survey, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have affected health including environmental health, and energy, waste, chemicals and the living environment in general. □ Implications ○ In the future, when establishing a pandemic response system related to environmental factors, it will be necessary to compare and analyze awareness and status changes per phase of the pandemic and identify characteristics by phase and policy demand while selecting the target environmental field and monitoring items. V. Direction for Future Research □ Analysis of domestic and international environmental factors and impacts by phase of the COVID-19 outbreak ○ The first-year study analyzed the relevance of the COVID-19 outbreak and environmental factors and revealed the impacts of COVID-19 on health, energy, and waste, the policy linkage among whom is being emphasized internationally and for whom further research is required. ○ It is necessary to analyze natural/social factors of the pandemic by phase including the outbreak, spread (first to fourth waves), ‘Living with COVID-19’ period, and so on, and to identify key factors in the sectors of health, energy, and waste that were found to be significantly correlated with the pandemic. ○ In the case of the energy sector, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on domestic energy demand by individual household or region, and it is possible to derive implications by investigating the trend of changes in energy demand of individual households or areas according to the COVID-19 situation by region using microdata. ○ It is necessary to analyze consumption changes and the current status of waste in the era of the pandemic and compare and analyze the domestic waste-related status with the international situation and make suggestions that reflect the international trend and the ‘Living with COVID-19’ era. ○ In addition, in the follow-up project, a survey will be conducted to identify changes in perceptions on the impact of the pandemic and actual conditions of the pandemic in the environmental sector. Based on this, specific subsectors and policy demands that should be addressed preferentially according to the characteristics and phase of the pandemic will be identified. □ Preparing a plan to establish a response system and policy governance in the environmental field by phase of the pandemic ○ Based on the analysis results of the sectors of health, energy, and waste, it is necessary to prepare a plan to establish a response system in each phase of the pandemic in major environmental fields. ○ Therefore, the international response trends, such as the current status of domestic COVID-19 response by phase and the progress of international agreements to respond to the pandemic by the WHO (World Health Organization) must be analyzed. ○ In addition, for monitoring/response instruments of the pandemic response system, it is necessary to develop techniques for selecting those vulnerable to the pandemic and vulnerability assessment methodologies in the environmental sector and establish information infrastructure for this. ○ Along with this, it is necessary to present the policy-making procedure for each pandemic phase to ensure a linkage between the policy and the response system and a plan to establish governance for policy implementation.

팬데믹 사회의 감정구조와 미학적 대응 양상 : 2020년에 출판된 팬데믹 소설 앤솔로지를 중심으로

신진숙(Shin Jinsook) 한국문화융합학회 2022 문화와 융합 Vol.44 No.1

이 논문은 코로나(COVID-19) 팬데믹 사회에 대한 문학의 미학적 대응 방식이 무엇인지 한국과 미국의 팬데믹이야기(소설)를 엮은 앤솔로지들을 중심으로 논의한다. 팬데믹 상황에서 생산된 소설작품들은 대부분 짧고 단순한플롯이 주를 이룬다. 이 때문에 팬데믹 이야기는 사회에 대한 종합적으로 성찰 할 수 있는 안정적인 내러티브를제시하는 데까지 나아가지 못하는 한계도 드러낸다. 그러나 다른 한편으로 이러한 팬데믹 이야기들은 팬데믹 사회의 정동(affects)과 감정을 즉각적인 방식으로 증언하고 기록하고 있다는 점에서 팬데믹 사회의 감정구조를 이해하는 데 의미 있는 시각을 제공해 준다. 이 논문은 팬데믹 이야기가 재현한 팬데믹 사회의 감정들을 다음 네 가지주제로 분석하려고 한다. 첫째, 전염병에 대한 공포의 감정의 전염, 둘째, 팬데믹으로 심화한 불안정성(precarity) 사회의 개인의 삶, 셋째, 인류 멸망의 상상력, 마지막으로 새로운 연대의 가능성과 희망의 서사 등을 논하고자 한다. 본 논문을 이러한 논의를 통해 팬데믹 사회에서 구성되고 있는 미학적-정동적(aesthetic-affective) 실천과 정치의 가능성을 사유해보려 한다. This article examines the aesthetic responses of writers to the COVID-19 pandemic society, focusing on Korean and American pandemic stories (novels) anthologies. Most of the novels produced during the pandemic are short stories with an immediate and simple plot. Because of this, the pandemic stories have some limitations in not being able to develop into a comprehensive and stable reflective representations. But nevertheless, the pandemic stories also make the pandemic situation an opportunity to reflect on the social reality that has existed before. In other words, the writers pay attention to how social problems that existed before the pandemic, such as immobility, instability, and the impossibility of solidarity, deepen in a pandemic situation. Rather, it visualizes the collective affects that have been present but have not been represented through the pandemic. On the one hand, this approach entails a sense of crisis for an uncertain and unstable future. This is one axis that constitutes negative emotions such as fear, anxiety, and anger in the novel. But at the same time, the writers try to connect this imagination of disaster with narratives of hope for alternative lives and other possibility spaces. In conclusion, this article discusses the ethics and politics of a post-pandemic society posed by these pandemic narratives.

팬데믹 시대 정부지원금이 가계소비에 미치는 효과분석: 제품군 및 가계특성 비교를 중심으로

이제영 한국유통학회 2023 流通硏究 Vol.28 No.2

Purpose: The polarization in the society and economy, which has been progressing along with the shock of COVID-19, continues to have an impact on changes in production and consumption activities in the market. In the case of the retail industry, consumption behavior shifted to non-contact purchasing activities in the era of pandemic, and the contraction in demand for the traditional face-to-face service industry led to the overall domestic economic recession. Using the household trend survey data of Statistics Korea, this study empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the government subsidy policy implemented to stabilize domestic households’ consumption life in the pandemic crisis by a Difference-in-Difference (DID) model based on propensity score matching (PSM). Considering the SOR (Stimulus-Organism-Response) model as a theoretical background, our study explains the change in consumer sentiment (O) of domestic households due to the external environmental stimulus (S) of the pandemic crisis and the resulting level of household spending (R) from the perspective of retail marketing. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, the pandemic crisis is understood as an external environmental stimulus, and the change in consumption behavior according to changes in consumers’ psychological emotions is explained through the SOR model. Our study views a government subsidy as policy interventions aimed at boosting domestic consumption during the early pandemic period, and how the effect of government subsidy varies depending on product categories and household characteristics is examined. Our study uses household trend survey data in the second quarter of 2020, when the first disaster subsidy began to be paid, and the second quarter of 2019 for comparison as a control group. The household trend survey data provided by Statistics Korea is a national representative cross-sectional data conducted every month for the purpose of identifying trends in household economic activities, targeting approximately 7,200 ordinary households residing in Korea. In this study, the household trend survey data in the second quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2019 (for households with one or more persons nationwide) are used as a treatment group and a control group, respectively. A total of 10,712 household samples are used for the final analysis. The following PSM-DID model is considered to examine how the interaction between the first disaster subsidy policy and whether or not each household received a government subsidy affects the households’ consumption expenditure across product categories. In equation (1), i represents each household, j represents whether it is a treatment group or a control group, and t represents the period before or after the pandemic. The main coefficient of interest in the proposed model is β3, which explains whether the first disaster subsidy policy during the pandemic had a significant effect on the change in domestic households’ spending across product categories. Results: <Table 1> and <Table 2> show coefficient values estimated through the proposed PSM-DID model for each product category. β3 is a coefficient of interaction term representing the effect of government subsidy during the pandemic period, and it is found to have a significant coefficient value although there are differences by product categories. This implies that households that received the government subsidy significantly increased or decreased their consumption for certain product categories, despite the overall decline in household spending during the pandemic period. Specifically, domestic households’ consumption spending increased significantly after the implementation of the government subsidy policy, especially in the grocery category such as meat, vegetables, and alcohol, as well as durable goods such as clothing and outerwear, shoes, home appliances, and medicines whose demand rapidly soared during the pandemic....

신종 인플루엔자 대유행의 확산과 영향 모델링

천병철,Chun, Byung-Chul 대한예방의학회 2005 예방의학회지 Vol.38 No.4

The impact of the next influenza pandemic is difficult to predict. It is dependent on how virulent the virus is, how rapidly it spreads from population to population, and the effectiveness of prevention and response efforts. Despite the uncertainty about the magnitude of the next pandemic, estimates of the health and economic impact remain important to aid public health policy decisions and guide pandemic planning for health and emergency sectors. Planning ahead in preparation for an influenza pandemic, with its potentially very high morbidity and mortality rates, is essential for hospital administrators and public health officials. The estimat ion of pandemic impact is based on the previous pandemics- we had experienced at least 3 pandemics in 20th century. But the epidemiologi cal characteristics - ie, start season, the impact of 1st wave, pathogenicity and virulence of the viruses and the primary victims of population were quite different from one another. I reviewed methodology for estimation and modelling of pandemic impact and described some nations's results using them in their national preparedness plans. And then I showed the estimates of pandemic influenza impact in Korea with FluSurge and FluAid. And, I described the results of pandemic modelling with parameters of 1918 pandemic for the shake of education and training of the first-line responder health officials to the epidemics. In preparing influenza pandemics, the simulation and modelling are the keys to reduce the uncertainty of the future and to make proper policies to manage and control the pandemics.