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      탈냉전 이후 한미동맹의 변화요인에 관한 연구 : Stephen M. Walt의 동맹이론을 중심으로 = A Study on Factors of Change of Korea-US Alliance after the Post-Cold War

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=T13710400

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      A Study on Factors of Change of Korea-US Alliance after the Post-Cold War*:
      with a focus on Stephen M. Walt's Alliance Theory
      Na, Seung - hag
      Major in International Politics,
      Political Science Department,
      Graduate School of
      Kyungpook National University
      (Supervised by Professor Jung, Hee Suk)
      (Abstract)
      The Korea-US alliance came about as a result of the conclusion of the Korea-US Mutual Defense Agreement in 1953 due to the geo-political distinct characteristics of the Korean Peninsula and the mutual special backgrounds of the Korea-US attributable to the situation of the Korean Peninsula after the Korean War. The Korea-US alliance has played a key role in achieving politico-economic development and prosperity including peace maintenance as a basic axis of security in Korea.
      Accordingly, there have existed lots of literature for research about the Korea-US alliance due to its importance for the security in Korea. However, the existing research is limited to specific issues and the Korea-US relations during a specific period with the aim of tracing the formation & developmental process of the Korea-US alliance, and political alternatives, failing to give an answer to the impending question: "Is it possible for the Korea-US alliance to be continuously maintained, or is it on the decline in the light of the situation of the Korean Peninsula from the Post-War to the present?"
      By observing the necessity of such a research, this study is intending to predict the onward line of the Korea-US alliance by analyzing the continuing factor and potential factor of decline in Korea-US alliance with a focus on Stephen M. Walt’s Alliance Theory (1987) as the pivotal research on factors of change of Korea-US alliance.
      Walt's Alliance Theory proposed a hegemonic leadership, the preservation of reliability, domestic politics and an elite operation, the influence of institutionalization, ideological solidarity and identity sharing as continuing factors in alliance; in addition, Walt proposed changes of threat awareness, the decrease in reliability and changing factors in domestic politics as declining factors.
      However, there is a limit in explaining the special circumstances of the Korean Peninsula only through Walt's theory, so this study systematized several factors by dividing them into internal related factors and external related factors after reflecting on special research assisting in the extention of the factors..
      As reasons for making it possible to maintain the framework of the alliance having such special circumstances, firstly, it can be cited that the national diplomacy goal in Korea lies foremost in national security. Actually, Korea definitely has put priority on the prevention of North Korea's invasion of South Korea for half a century after the establishment of the state.
      Secondly, it is because Korea and the US succeeded in mutually sharing a dissimilarity in national interests between the two countries during the cold war.
      The position of Korea at the time of the conclusion of the alliance had a goal of having to carry out national security and economic rehabilitation while the US position had the character of a strategic goal of deterrence of the spread of communism and the blockade of the Soviet Union; nevertheless, both countries managed to conclude the alliance by sharing the dissimilarity in their national cause.
      In addition, with the awareness that the alliance is essential to the maintenance of a unitary hegemony after the post-cold war period, both countries pursued a change rather than dissolution or renunciation of the alliance, but with the nuclear issue of North Korea coming to the fore, the two countries are continuing their consolidation of the alliance due to the ever-rising potential threat of North Korea which is "a common enemy" to Korea and the US.
      Thirdly, both countries came to share the awareness of the necessity of the Korea-US alliance by taking into account the rise of China and Japan's movement toward greater military power.
      This study analyzed the Korea-US alliance by adding the special characteristics that exist only in the Korea-US alliance and by putting emphasis on the assumptive question, "Is it possible for the Korea-US alliance to continue to exist, or is it on the decline if a factor of special characteristics of the Korea-US alliance attributed to Walt’s theory should be added?"
      The extended factors by adding Walt's theory and special characteristics are as follows:
      First, this study did a systematic analysis of the Korea-US alliance by dividing the continuing factors into internal related factors, such as the preservation of reliability, domestic politics and an elite operation, ideological solidarity and identity sharing, , and external factors, such as a hegemonic leadership, the influence of institutionalization the rise of China and Russia, North Korea's local provocation and nuclear issue. In addition, this study divided the potential decline factors into internal related factors, such as the change in threat awareness, the decrease in reliability, the change of domestic politics, the weakening of shared identity, the weakening of the awareness level of national security, and external factors, such as the unilateral reinforcement in the US-Japan alliance, the emergence of the potential alternative nation for a new alliance, and the sudden change in North Korea.
      In addition, in an effort to verify the effectiveness of continuing & decline factors, this study selected core determinants by applying an evaluation indicator.
      Further, in order to grasp the actual increase and decrease in their military strength, a comparative analysis of the holding military strength of the US armed forces status in Korea was done, instead of evaluating the military strength of the US armed forces in Korea only by military troops status when the Korea-US alliance continues or declines. It was found, as mentioned in Chapter Ⅳ, that it is not reasonable to say the holding military strength of the US armed forces in Korea is maintained or declined, only on the basis of the increase and decrease in the number of military troops and several factors in Korea-US relations.
      In other words, it should be argued that the Korea-US alliance is reinforced or continued or on the decline, based on the combat power in the light of the performance of the Action Agent and the numbers of Action Agent units in possession.
      This study also considered this point and as a result of analysis, changes of Korea-US alliance relationship did not coincide directly with the change in the increase or decrease in combat power. In short, as for the evaluation of Korea-US relations, it should be done complexly in the light of increase or decrease in combat power other than evaluating Korea-US relations as continuing or declining through a rhetorical evaluation based on several factors.
      Out of continuing & declining factors in the Korea-US alliance, the result of reckoning essential factors and the order of factor determination are as follows:
      This study placed the continuing factors in the following order: the North Korea's nuclear issue, the rise of China and Russia, the preservation of reliability, and North Korea's local provocation. It also arranged the declining factors in the following order: the changes in threat awareness, the changes of domestic politics, level of perception of national security, and the emergence of a new alliance with an alternative nation.
      In conclusion, North Korea's cause of the nuclear problem which affects continuing factors the most is used as a bargaining chip even in time of North Korea’s worsening regime maintenance & economic situation. The extreme move of North Korea, such as the secession from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1993, the nuclear test, and the long-range missile launch, etc., work as an important factor in the process of maintenance of a continued alliance relation between Korea and the USA at a level of the stability of the Korean Peninsula, and will work as a continuing factor in Korea-US alliance relations until the North Korean nuclear program is solved.
      Reliability was mutually associated with it and went through the process of being easily collapsed or being intensified according to national interests.
      Under the influence of the rise of China and Russia, Korea-US alliance relations have a dual meaning of weakening or strengthening in their cohesiveness, so Korea is required to make efforts to maintain well-balanced diplomacy and strategic balance.
      Accordingly, it is learned that there arises a difference in the position between Korea and the USA depending on how the USA perceives the policy towards North Korea, and how they make use of an approach to negotiating methods, North Korea's economic destruction, the food supply issue, and the real picture of the human rights issue, etc. Due to such a result, the Korea-US alliance could not but be weakened. Accordingly the alliance relations between the two countries changed according to the goal of the threatening North Korea or the awareness level of North Korea.
      This study drew the fact that in the midst of the continued threat by North Korea, there occurred a difference in the policy towards North Korea, in their response to an accident, and an approach to it, between Korea and the USA; in addition, the complex relations of dynamics, such as an influence of domestic politics, the decrease in reliability, and changes of threat awareness, etc., work as core declining factors in Korea-US relations.
      As long as the North Korean threat always reside, it is imperative that the Korea-US alliance should be maintained, and if the North Korean threat should disappear, there should be a change in the Korea-US alliance based on a vision in whatever forms. In other words, it is necessary to go towards the alliance which makes it possible to enhance flexibility and identity in order for the alliance to take the lead in peace, and an alliance which can realize horizontal relations, and an extended inclusive Korea-US alliance rather than just responding to the North Korean threat.
      Conclusively, as for the direction of the Korea-US alliance, as mentioned above, it is necessary that the continuing factors should be managed while the declining factors should be converted to continuing factors. In other words, in order for the alliance to continue, the continuing factors should exercise more powerful influence than the declining factors. However, there might be the adverse possibility that the alliance would go under and in irreversible decline due to the failure to control the declining factors amid continued conflicts and indifference. However, the hitherto Korea-US alliance has continued through lots of changes, which permits us to predict that the Korea-US alliance will continue for an unforeseen time in future.
      번역하기

      A Study on Factors of Change of Korea-US Alliance after the Post-Cold War*: with a focus on Stephen M. Walt's Alliance Theory Na, Seung - hag Major in International Politics, Political Science Department, Graduate School of Kyungpook National ...

      A Study on Factors of Change of Korea-US Alliance after the Post-Cold War*:
      with a focus on Stephen M. Walt's Alliance Theory
      Na, Seung - hag
      Major in International Politics,
      Political Science Department,
      Graduate School of
      Kyungpook National University
      (Supervised by Professor Jung, Hee Suk)
      (Abstract)
      The Korea-US alliance came about as a result of the conclusion of the Korea-US Mutual Defense Agreement in 1953 due to the geo-political distinct characteristics of the Korean Peninsula and the mutual special backgrounds of the Korea-US attributable to the situation of the Korean Peninsula after the Korean War. The Korea-US alliance has played a key role in achieving politico-economic development and prosperity including peace maintenance as a basic axis of security in Korea.
      Accordingly, there have existed lots of literature for research about the Korea-US alliance due to its importance for the security in Korea. However, the existing research is limited to specific issues and the Korea-US relations during a specific period with the aim of tracing the formation & developmental process of the Korea-US alliance, and political alternatives, failing to give an answer to the impending question: "Is it possible for the Korea-US alliance to be continuously maintained, or is it on the decline in the light of the situation of the Korean Peninsula from the Post-War to the present?"
      By observing the necessity of such a research, this study is intending to predict the onward line of the Korea-US alliance by analyzing the continuing factor and potential factor of decline in Korea-US alliance with a focus on Stephen M. Walt’s Alliance Theory (1987) as the pivotal research on factors of change of Korea-US alliance.
      Walt's Alliance Theory proposed a hegemonic leadership, the preservation of reliability, domestic politics and an elite operation, the influence of institutionalization, ideological solidarity and identity sharing as continuing factors in alliance; in addition, Walt proposed changes of threat awareness, the decrease in reliability and changing factors in domestic politics as declining factors.
      However, there is a limit in explaining the special circumstances of the Korean Peninsula only through Walt's theory, so this study systematized several factors by dividing them into internal related factors and external related factors after reflecting on special research assisting in the extention of the factors..
      As reasons for making it possible to maintain the framework of the alliance having such special circumstances, firstly, it can be cited that the national diplomacy goal in Korea lies foremost in national security. Actually, Korea definitely has put priority on the prevention of North Korea's invasion of South Korea for half a century after the establishment of the state.
      Secondly, it is because Korea and the US succeeded in mutually sharing a dissimilarity in national interests between the two countries during the cold war.
      The position of Korea at the time of the conclusion of the alliance had a goal of having to carry out national security and economic rehabilitation while the US position had the character of a strategic goal of deterrence of the spread of communism and the blockade of the Soviet Union; nevertheless, both countries managed to conclude the alliance by sharing the dissimilarity in their national cause.
      In addition, with the awareness that the alliance is essential to the maintenance of a unitary hegemony after the post-cold war period, both countries pursued a change rather than dissolution or renunciation of the alliance, but with the nuclear issue of North Korea coming to the fore, the two countries are continuing their consolidation of the alliance due to the ever-rising potential threat of North Korea which is "a common enemy" to Korea and the US.
      Thirdly, both countries came to share the awareness of the necessity of the Korea-US alliance by taking into account the rise of China and Japan's movement toward greater military power.
      This study analyzed the Korea-US alliance by adding the special characteristics that exist only in the Korea-US alliance and by putting emphasis on the assumptive question, "Is it possible for the Korea-US alliance to continue to exist, or is it on the decline if a factor of special characteristics of the Korea-US alliance attributed to Walt’s theory should be added?"
      The extended factors by adding Walt's theory and special characteristics are as follows:
      First, this study did a systematic analysis of the Korea-US alliance by dividing the continuing factors into internal related factors, such as the preservation of reliability, domestic politics and an elite operation, ideological solidarity and identity sharing, , and external factors, such as a hegemonic leadership, the influence of institutionalization the rise of China and Russia, North Korea's local provocation and nuclear issue. In addition, this study divided the potential decline factors into internal related factors, such as the change in threat awareness, the decrease in reliability, the change of domestic politics, the weakening of shared identity, the weakening of the awareness level of national security, and external factors, such as the unilateral reinforcement in the US-Japan alliance, the emergence of the potential alternative nation for a new alliance, and the sudden change in North Korea.
      In addition, in an effort to verify the effectiveness of continuing & decline factors, this study selected core determinants by applying an evaluation indicator.
      Further, in order to grasp the actual increase and decrease in their military strength, a comparative analysis of the holding military strength of the US armed forces status in Korea was done, instead of evaluating the military strength of the US armed forces in Korea only by military troops status when the Korea-US alliance continues or declines. It was found, as mentioned in Chapter Ⅳ, that it is not reasonable to say the holding military strength of the US armed forces in Korea is maintained or declined, only on the basis of the increase and decrease in the number of military troops and several factors in Korea-US relations.
      In other words, it should be argued that the Korea-US alliance is reinforced or continued or on the decline, based on the combat power in the light of the performance of the Action Agent and the numbers of Action Agent units in possession.
      This study also considered this point and as a result of analysis, changes of Korea-US alliance relationship did not coincide directly with the change in the increase or decrease in combat power. In short, as for the evaluation of Korea-US relations, it should be done complexly in the light of increase or decrease in combat power other than evaluating Korea-US relations as continuing or declining through a rhetorical evaluation based on several factors.
      Out of continuing & declining factors in the Korea-US alliance, the result of reckoning essential factors and the order of factor determination are as follows:
      This study placed the continuing factors in the following order: the North Korea's nuclear issue, the rise of China and Russia, the preservation of reliability, and North Korea's local provocation. It also arranged the declining factors in the following order: the changes in threat awareness, the changes of domestic politics, level of perception of national security, and the emergence of a new alliance with an alternative nation.
      In conclusion, North Korea's cause of the nuclear problem which affects continuing factors the most is used as a bargaining chip even in time of North Korea’s worsening regime maintenance & economic situation. The extreme move of North Korea, such as the secession from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1993, the nuclear test, and the long-range missile launch, etc., work as an important factor in the process of maintenance of a continued alliance relation between Korea and the USA at a level of the stability of the Korean Peninsula, and will work as a continuing factor in Korea-US alliance relations until the North Korean nuclear program is solved.
      Reliability was mutually associated with it and went through the process of being easily collapsed or being intensified according to national interests.
      Under the influence of the rise of China and Russia, Korea-US alliance relations have a dual meaning of weakening or strengthening in their cohesiveness, so Korea is required to make efforts to maintain well-balanced diplomacy and strategic balance.
      Accordingly, it is learned that there arises a difference in the position between Korea and the USA depending on how the USA perceives the policy towards North Korea, and how they make use of an approach to negotiating methods, North Korea's economic destruction, the food supply issue, and the real picture of the human rights issue, etc. Due to such a result, the Korea-US alliance could not but be weakened. Accordingly the alliance relations between the two countries changed according to the goal of the threatening North Korea or the awareness level of North Korea.
      This study drew the fact that in the midst of the continued threat by North Korea, there occurred a difference in the policy towards North Korea, in their response to an accident, and an approach to it, between Korea and the USA; in addition, the complex relations of dynamics, such as an influence of domestic politics, the decrease in reliability, and changes of threat awareness, etc., work as core declining factors in Korea-US relations.
      As long as the North Korean threat always reside, it is imperative that the Korea-US alliance should be maintained, and if the North Korean threat should disappear, there should be a change in the Korea-US alliance based on a vision in whatever forms. In other words, it is necessary to go towards the alliance which makes it possible to enhance flexibility and identity in order for the alliance to take the lead in peace, and an alliance which can realize horizontal relations, and an extended inclusive Korea-US alliance rather than just responding to the North Korean threat.
      Conclusively, as for the direction of the Korea-US alliance, as mentioned above, it is necessary that the continuing factors should be managed while the declining factors should be converted to continuing factors. In other words, in order for the alliance to continue, the continuing factors should exercise more powerful influence than the declining factors. However, there might be the adverse possibility that the alliance would go under and in irreversible decline due to the failure to control the declining factors amid continued conflicts and indifference. However, the hitherto Korea-US alliance has continued through lots of changes, which permits us to predict that the Korea-US alliance will continue for an unforeseen time in future.

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      목차 (Table of Contents)

      • Ⅰ. 서 론 1
      • 1. 문제 제기 1
      • 2. 연구 대상 및 목적 5
      • 3. 연구 범위 및 방법 7
      • 1) 연구 범위 7
      • Ⅰ. 서 론 1
      • 1. 문제 제기 1
      • 2. 연구 대상 및 목적 5
      • 3. 연구 범위 및 방법 7
      • 1) 연구 범위 7
      • 2) 연구 방법 8
      • Ⅱ. 이론적 고찰 및 분석틀 10
      • 1. 선행연구 검토 10
      • 2. 동맹의 개념 13
      • 1) 동맹의 정의 13
      • 2) 동맹형성에 관한 이론 20
      • 3) 동맹의 지속 및 변화에 관한 이론 23
      • 3. 월트의 동맹이론에 관한 논의 27
      • 1) 위협에 대한 반응으로서의 동맹 27
      • 2) 동맹의 지속요인과 쇠퇴요인 29
      • 3) 동맹 적용사례 31
      • 4. 본 연구의 분석틀 37
      • Ⅲ. 한미동맹의 성립과 발전과정 40
      • 1. 한미동맹의 성립 40
      • 1) 한미관계의 태동 40
      • 2) 한미동맹의 기원 41
      • 3) 한미상호방위조약 체결 47
      • 2. 한미동맹의 성장 49
      • 1) 베트남전 파병 49
      • 2) 한미연합군사령부 창설 52
      • 3. 한미동맹의 발전 55
      • 1) 작전통제권 전환 55
      • 2) 해외 파병 62
      • Ⅳ. 탈냉전 이후 한미동맹의 지속요인 66
      • 1. 내부적 관계요인 66
      • 1) 신뢰성 보존 66
      • 2) 국내정치와 엘리트 조작 76
      • 3) 이념적 결속과 정체성 공유 82
      • 2. 외부적 관계요인 90
      • 1) 패권적 리더십 90
      • 2) 제도화 영향 106
      • 3) 북한의 국지도발 113
      • 4) 북한의 핵 문제 117
      • 5) 중국 및 러시아의 부상 128
      • 3. 소결론 : 핵심적 지속요인 133
      • Ⅴ. 탈냉전 이후 한미동맹의 쇠퇴요인 139
      • 1. 내부적 관계요인 139
      • 1) 위협인식 변화 139
      • 2) 신뢰성 감소 143
      • 3) 국내정치 변화 146
      • 4) 공유된 정체성 약화 156
      • 5) 안보인식 수준 약화 159
      • 2. 외부적 관계요인 166
      • 1) 미일동맹의 일방적 강화 166
      • 2) 새로운 동맹 대체 가능국가 등장 169
      • 3. 소결론 : 핵심적 쇠퇴요인 175
      • Ⅵ. 결 론 180
      • 1. 요약 및 함의 180
      • 2. 한미동맹의 향방과 정책 제언 182
      • 참고문헌 188
      • 부 록 201
      • 영문초록 220
      더보기

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      3. 『주한미군』, 김일영, 조성렬, 파주 :한울아카데미, , 2003

      4. 한미동맹 50년, 차상철, 서울 :생각의 나무, , 2004

      5. 『국가안보론』, 윤정원, 박영사, 서울 :박영사, , 2011

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      8. 정부 인수위원회, 이명박, 국정과제 외교 안보분야, , 2008

      9. 『근대를 말하다』, 이덕일, 서울 :역사의 아침, , 2012

      10. 『신법률학 사전』, 이택규, 법률, 서울 :법률출판사, , 1997

      1. 『정당론』, 김성희, 서울 :박영사, , 2004

      2. 『정치학』, 이승호, 고시계사, 서울 :법문사, , 2008

      3. 『주한미군』, 김일영, 조성렬, 파주 :한울아카데미, , 2003

      4. 한미동맹 50년, 차상철, 서울 :생각의 나무, , 2004

      5. 『국가안보론』, 윤정원, 박영사, 서울 :박영사, , 2011

      6. 『국가안보학』, 조영갑, 선학사, 성남 :선학사, , 2011

      7. 『냉전의 역사』, 김진웅, 서울 :비봉출판사, , 1999

      8. 정부 인수위원회, 이명박, 국정과제 외교 안보분야, , 2008

      9. 『근대를 말하다』, 이덕일, 서울 :역사의 아침, , 2012

      10. 『신법률학 사전』, 이택규, 법률, 서울 :법률출판사, , 1997

      11. 『정치학 대사전』, 정인홍, 김성희, 강주진, 서울 :박영사, , 1998

      12. 『정치학의 이해』, 서울대학교정치학과교수, 박영사, 서울 :형설출판사, , 2010

      13. 『한국의 방위비』, 현인택, 서울 :한울, , 1991

      14. 비교정치론의 강의, 김웅진, 파주 :한울아카데미, , 1992

      15. 전환기의 한미관계, 한승주, 서울국제포럼, 서울 :서울국제포럼, , 1988

      16. 『한미동맹 60년사』, 장삼열, 국방부, 서울 :국방부 군사편찬연구소, , 2013

      17. 『현대국제정치론』, 이호재, 서울 :법문사, , 1987

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