미국금리인상에 대비한 우리나라 주식시장의 리스크 점검

김성훈 한국경제연구원 2015 KERI Insight Vol.15 No.49

본 보고서에서는 1999년 이후 코스피 수익률 변동성과 거시변수들간의 관계 분석을 통해 미국 금리인상으로 인한 우리나라 주식시장의 리스크 확대 가능성을 점검했다. 1999년 이후 우리나라 주식시장 전반에 걸친 리스크(systematic risk)를 결정하는 가장 중요한 변수는, 국제금융시장의 불확실성(VIX)를 제외하면, 미국금리와 한미간의 금리차이로 나타났다. 특히 미국금리와 한미간 금리차이가 코스피 수익률의 변동성에 미치는 방식에 있어 1999년~2003년, 2003년~2008년 두 기간 사이에 구조적단절(structural breaks) 현상이 나타났다. 1999년에서 2003년 기간 동안 우리나라는 1997년 아시아 외환위기 이후 대외부채를 줄여가며 경기 회복을 위해 묻지마식 기술금융과 신용카드 발급 등 급속한 신용확장 정책을 취하고 있었다. 그 결과 닷컴버블 붕괴와 2003년 신용카드 대란을 겪었다. 대외적으로는 미국금리가 오르고 한미간의 금리차이가 확대된 시기로, 한경연은 해당 시기에 코스피 수익률의 변동성으로 표현되는 주식 투자자들의 불안심리가 더욱 커졌던 것으로 나타났다고 분석했다. 이에 한경연은 현재 우리나라의 경제상황은 2000년 초반과 매우 흡사하다고 주장했다. 현재 우리나라는 2008년 금융위기 이후 내수 진작을 위해 주택담보대출 확대 정책을 시행하고 있는데, 이로 인해 부동산버블과 가계부채 위기 가능성이 제기되고 있는 상황이라는 설명이다. 김성훈 한경연 부연구위원은 “미국 금리인상으로 인해 전이될 수 있는 금융불안을 줄이려면 미국의 금리인상에 우리나라 통화당국이 즉각적으로 동조화하기보다 한미 간 금리차이를 염두에 두고 인상폭과 시점을 조절하는 것이 필요하다”고 강조했다.

대학 축구선수들의 합숙훈련 만족도 척도 개발

김성훈,홍성진 한국체육측정평가학회 2019 한국체육측정평가학회지 Vol.21 No.2

The purpose of this study was to develop the measuring instrument including higher validity and reliability based on contexts of Kim & Lee(2018)'s exploration the positive and negative factors of the camp training in college soccer players. Based on expert meeting from Kim & Lee(2018)'s study, 37 questions were made for this study. 245 college soccer players were selected and completed the survey. Based on this results, 5 factors and 22 questions(sport performance, autonomous activity, social support, camp environment, communication) were finally selected through item analysis, item reliability, exploratory factor analysis. External validity(confirmatory factor analysis, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and predictive validity) showed that the developed scale had satisfaction of the results. The camp training satisfaction that the college soccer players were experienced was categorized by sport performance, autonomous activity, social support, camp environment and communication. 이 연구는 김성훈, 이한우(2018)의 대학축구선수들의 합숙훈련 긍정·부정 탐색 연구를 바탕으로 타당도와 신뢰도가 높은 측정도구를 개발하는데 연구의 목적이 있다. 김성훈, 이한우(2018)의 연구를 바탕으로 전문가회의를 통해 38개의 문항을 제작하여 대학축구선수 245명을 설문하였다. 이를 바탕으로 문항분석, 문항 신뢰도분석, 탐색적 요인분석을 통해 5요인 22문항(경기수행, 자율활동, 사회적지지, 합숙환경, 의사소통 )으로 최종 확정하였다. 개발된 측정도구의 외적타당도(확인적 요인분석, 수렴·변별·예측타당도)를 검증한 결과 만족스러운 결과가 나타났다. 각 요인별 내용을 보면 다음과 같다. 경기수행은 경쟁심, 개인 및 팀 경기력 향상, 집중력 향상, 개인연습 이다. 자율활동은 개인 시간 보장, 휴식, 일정한 외박, 선수 의견반영 이다. 사회적 지지는 관심과 인정, 인격존중, 고충상담, 의견존중이다. 합숙환경은 정서적 안정, 훈련장과의 거리, 식단, 청결, 편의시설 이다. 의사소통은 어울림, 배려와 협력, 의사소통, 격려를 통한 동기부여이다. 이 연구는 합숙훈련과 엘리트 선수들을 대상으로 하여 국외 선행연구들과의 비교가 사실상 어려웠다. 우리는 대학 축구선수들이 더 좋은 환경에서 만족하면서 학업과 운동을 병행하기를 바란다.

엘리트 장애인 선수 스트레스 척도 개발

김성훈 한국웰니스학회 2018 한국웰니스학회지 Vol.13 No.1

The purpose of this study was to develop the measuring instrument including higher validity and reliability based on contexts of Kim(2010)'s Stress Concept structuralization for a Elite disabled athlete. Based on 4 general fields(environment stress, interpersonal relationship stress, performance stress, and psychological stress) from Kim(2010)'s study, 50 questions were made for this study, and 220 elite disabled athletes were selected and done for this survey. Based on the survey, 4 factors and 21 questions(exercise-environment stress, interpersonal relationship stress, performance stress, and self-psychological stress) were confirmed by item analysis, reliability analysis, and exploratory factor analysis. Also, the developed measuring instrument was confirmed the validity by external validity(confirmatory factor analysis, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and predictive validity). The stress that the elite disabled athletes were experienced was categorized by stress from exercise environment, performance stress, interpersonal stress, and self-psychological stress. These stress should be controlled by applying a stress coping program, and also these should be necessary to evaluate the efficiency of program by the developed measuring instrument. 이 연구는 김성훈(2010)의 엘리트 장애인 선수 스트레스 개념 구조화 내용을 바탕으로 타당도와 신뢰도가 높은 측정도구를 개발하는데 연구의 목적이 있다. 김성훈(2010)의 연구에서 탐색한 4개의 일반영역(환경 스트레스, 대인관계 스트레스, 수행 스트레스, 심리적 스트레스)을 바탕으로 50개의 문항을 제작하여 엘리트 장애인 선수 220명을 설문하였다. 설문한 내용을 바탕으로 문항분석, 신뢰도분석, 탐색적 요인분석을 통해 4요인 21문항(운동환경 스트레스, 수행 스트레스, 대인관계 스트레스, 자기심리 스트레스)으로 최종 확정하였다. 개발된 측정도구의 외적타당도(확인적 요인분석, 수렴·변별·예측타당도)를 검증하여 타당도를 확보하였다. 엘리트 장애인 선수들이 겪는 스트레스는 운동 환경에서 오는 스트레스, 수행 스트레스, 대인관계 스트레스, 자기심리 스트레스로 구분 할 수 있으며, 향후 이를 관리할 수 있는 스트레스 대처 프로그램을 적용하여 본 측정도구를 통해 효율성을 평가해 볼 필요성이 있다.

휜-히트파이프로 구성된 채널에서 히트파이프의 엇갈림배열에 따른 유동 및 열전달 특성

김성훈,진윤근,김철주 대한설비공학회 2002 설비공학 논문집 Vol.14 No.11

The characteristics of flow and heat transfer in the heat exchanger of heat pipes with fins have been studied numerically for cooling enhancement of electronic components of KTX (Korea Train eXpress). Numerical analysis and methodology have been conformed by comparing the experimental results for inlined array of heat pipes. The staggered arrangement of heat pipes has been proposed in order to achieve heat transfer enhancement. As results, the geometry change to the staggered array is conformed to increase the heat transfer of the system accompanied by an increase of pressure drop. The current results of friction factor and Colburn j factor are presented in terms of Reynolds number and staggered distance, and are expected to use for design and manufacture of such a system.

OTA를 이용한 연속시간 3.58MHz Bandpass 비디오 필터 설계 ( Design of Continuous-time 3.58MHz Bandpass Filter using OTA )

김성훈,이규환,김석호,조성익,김동영 대한전자공학회 1994 대한전자공학회 학술대회 Vol.1994 No.1

對 北方 經濟協力의 現實과 課題 : 南北韓 經濟交流에 주는 敎訓 Implications for Joint Business Management Between The Two Koreas

金成勳 中央大學校經營硏究所 1993 經營學論集 Vol.19 No.1

The new detente between the East and the West since the 1980s, followed by the reconciliation mood over the Korean peninsular in the recent years can be cited as the coming of the sheer opportunities for the Republic of Korea's "Northern Policies and Programs" as much as for her counterparts. Ideological confrontation no longer remains as an obtackle in pursuing the improvement of economic relations with the nothern countries even including her long-standing rival DPRK(North Korea). It has already established diplomatic relations with the East European countries, the former Soviet Union(CIS) and Mongolian People's Republic. Upon the co-signing of the Trade Agreement, PRC and ROK representatives are now negotiating the details of mutual investment guarantees, Futhermore, the two Korean governments have reached and agreement of reconciliation, non-agression and exchange-cooperation December 1991. At this point, therefore, it may be useful to take a look at the trade structure and economic cooperation of South Korea with Nothern countries. The trade flows between South Korea and the socialist countries displayed a dynamic increase by 31 percent per annum during the past 5 years reaching a total of 8 billion U.S. dollars in 1991. Noteworthy fact is that more than two thirds of the amount comes from the trade with China, thereby making each other as the 4th or 5th largest trade partner in the world. It should be, however, noted that the contents of the import items mainly consist of raw materials and primary products, while most of the exports comprise the secondary industrial commodities. At the early stage of economic exchange with nothern countries, the indirect transactions via the third country agents dominated especially in the trade with China. The direct trade portion becomes increasing as much as about 60 percent in 1991. Yet the internal trade between South and North Koreas remains essentially indirect, due to the lack of trade-related correspondence system. Each nothern country maintains a different economic structure with specific strength and weakness. Their weakness can be overcome if the necessary conditions are implement through economic cooperation with the capitalist countries. ◁표 삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요) South Korea, though it is ebdowed with poor natural resources, has grown to be the world's twelfth trading country. The capital, technology and enterpreneurship of South Korea can be interconnected with cheap labor and abundant resources in the nothern countries. In this respect, the prospects for economic cooperation with these countries including North Korea can be cited as bright. As of May 1991, a total of 108 projects with the amount of 172 million U.S. dollars has been approved by the ROK government for the overseas investment in nothern countries. As shown in Table2, The investment centered around China mostly in the field of manufacturing industries, despite the fact that the two countries have no diplomatic relations. The average size of investment per project in China, however, accounts for less than on million U.S. dollars. At the early stage of economic cooperation, the contractural joint venture took the majority in investment forms, but noteworthy to mention is the increasing trend of investment by the form of fully-owned enterprise in recent years. Another charateristics may be quoted as the increasing number of agricultural and energy resources development projects in China and Russia. ROK government's intention to actively participate in the Tumenjian River Basin project is one example. The main reason for the rush in China seems to be China's dynamic opening policy coupled with it, geographical advantage for the South Korean business firms. As far as economic cooperation between South-North Koreas is concerned, the joint venture business merely remains at the infant stage : that is, a few example of compensation trade and assembly processing of such items as socks and bags by OEM method. As a whole for North Korea, however, surprising enough, the number of foreign investments since 1984 when its Joint Venture Management Act promulgated has totalled only 66 projects, of which 50 projects came from the Korean residents in Japan. Recently a UNIDO Report revealed the North Korea's aspiration to induce foreigh capital listing up 83 projects with a total investment of about U.S. 887 million dollars. In doing business in the most nothern countries by foreign investors are, without exception, confronted ◁표 삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요) with the common problems basically owing to 1) differences in value and economic system of the socialist countries, 2) lack of proper laws and regulations, institutions and policies, 3) poor infrastructural services, 4) inadequate financing and marketing system, and) lack of entrepreurship and managerial ability. According to china's official survey, approximately 15 percent of the total 12,198 projects invested by foreign firms turned out to be failed due to one or another reasons mentioned above. Noteworthy to mention is the fact that the most of failed investment were made during the early stage of China's economic reform when the aforementioned phenomena were severely apparent. This implies that doing business in the later/lesser opened countries such as North Korea needs double attention, as they are less prepared for joint venture management with foreign capital. The common problems and issues faced by initial investors in these countries may be classified within the three categories : 1) Negotiation problems before the establishment of the business concerns, 2) Problems in the process of contract-writing and business establishing, and 3) Actual management and operational problems. In any case, a thorough feasibility study based on indepth and extensive real-world survey is prerequisite in effectively confronting with every plausible problems in time. There are some important considerations for South Korea to take into account in pressing forward economic cooperation with the nothern countries. Needless to emphasize, the settlement of peace over the orean peninsula for the reunification of the two korea has been over-emphasized for any endeavours to be made in connection with the south Korea's "Nothern Policies. However, it appears now that the economic cooperation should be thought of with the main emphasis being placed on the economic logic and reasoning. That is, maintaining the "Help is help and Business is business" attitude is very much needed. Except for the governmental assistance, therefore, most of northern business have followed the principle of business management, by starting with the indirect exchange of trade items and the expansion of direct trade to sollow. Small-scale joint ventures projects were also dominants. But some of the attempts by South Korean enterprise which aim at exploring first of all, bigger projects in the so-called "Nothern region" by Korean alone have been refrained. In case, South Korea should seek large-scale joint venture projects, it should be preferable in the form of a consortium with other advanced countries, especially in the areas of the resources development and social overhead capital such as Siberian projects and the construction of harbors and roads in Tumen River basin. North Korea still amintains an orthodox socialist system with a centrally planned economy. However, mounting economic problems demand that this autarkic policy can no longer be maintained. Reduction of oil supply and economic aid from the former Soviet Union as well as a decrease in the trade volume with other socialist countries is exerting severe pressure on North Korea, compelling it to counter these external shocks by opening its doors to capitalist economies. North Korea's bold approach toward "imperialist" Japan is clearly a step to counterbalance South Korea's rapproachement with North Korea's fellow socialist countries. At the same time, North Korea also expects an expansion of bilateral trade with Japan and U.S.A. aming at the introduction of needy capital and technological expertise. If North Korea accepts supervision of its nuclear facilities, establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and Norht Korea would be only a matter of time. All in all, the recent multi-dimensional developments in Northeast Asia permits cautious optimism as far as the reduction and the enhancement of economic cooperation in this region. In this context, the South Korea should not be engaged in a too hasty attempt to promote any direct huge investment projects alone to work together with North Korea. Instead, it should seek ways, first, to promote brethrenship and historical-cultural identities with them before seeking benefits from the economic endeavours. At the same time, both Koreas should direct its concerted efforts to working out practical measures for improving inter-Korean relations. For this purpose, the two countries should not stick to a vague, unfamiliar and too huge concept which is impractical to be expand the scope of cooperation and companionship towards, for example, the improvement of trade circumstances, the promotion of direct trade partnership, and the joint participation in multilateral projects. The multilateral project outside the Korean peninsula may be the first step, then the similar approach within North Korea, and thereby eventually leading to the joint venture project by the two elsewhere. In this respect, the proposed UNDP Tumen River project can serve as a corner stone towards the ultimate cooperation and confidence-building between the two countries. Once trust is established, the two countries will find a vast of opportunities for joint venture projects and cooperation not only in economic areas but also in social, cultural and even political areas.

정부정책하에서 기업의 기술전략 : 자동차산업을 중심으로 The Case of Auto Industry in Korea

김성훈 나남 1999 정부학연구 Vol.5 No.2

이 논문은 정부정책이 정책대상집단인 기업들에 의해 어떻게 해석되고 수용되며 전혀 다른 성격의 정책으로 변질되어 가는지를 탐색하고, 기업의 정책에 대한 해석과 전략선택에 영향을 미치는 기업의 내·외적 요인들을 발견하여 설명하는데 목적을 두었다. 이를 위해 자동차산업과 관련된 정부정책에 대한 국내 자동차기업들의 대응전략을 비교하고 대응전략에 영향을 미친 내·외적 요인들을 설명하였다. 주요 영향요인으로는 해외자본과의 관계에서 경영자율성, 재벌그룹 내에서의 경영자율성, 기업의 R&D능력이 설정되었고 이를 경험적으로 확인하였다. 본 연구를 통해 정부정책은 대상집단인 기업에게 직접적인 영향력을 행사하는 독립변수로서의 역할을 수행한다기보다 기업의 제도적 여건과 준거체계에 의해 해석되고 수정되며 변질되는 외생변수로 다뤄지게 된다는 사실을 알 수 있었다. 이는 정부정책이 가지는 근본적인 한계이며, 기업의 제도적 여건의 진화정도를 반영하여 정책을 설계하는 것이 정책의 실효성을 증진시킬 수 있다는 의미를 함축한다고 볼 수 있다.

東北亞 경제권의 展開와 통일 課題

金成勳 제주대학교 동아시아연구소 1994 東아시아硏究論叢 Vol.5 No.-

VaR 를 이용한 포트폴리오 위험측정과 관리

김성훈 한국금융연구원 1999 금융조사보고서 Vol.99 No.12

Between Stereotypes and Resistance: The Politics of Identity in Sherman Alexie’s The Toughest Indian in the World

김성훈 경남대학교 인문과학연구소 2018 人文論叢 Vol.45 No.-

This paper aims at demonstrating that the portraits of contemporary American Indians in his works resist the fossilized and stereotypical images of Indians, and even go beyond the ethnical boundaries set by ‘traditional’ American Indian literature. After sketching out the lines of criticism on seemingly stereotypical characters by some American Indian writers and scholars, this paper examines how the Spokane writer engages with the controversial idea of ‘Indian’ and ‘Indianness’ in his fiction, especially in The Toughest Indian in the World (2000). As this paper proposes, Alexie’s unflinchingly bold representation of new, unexpected Indian characters informs his serious quest for Indian identity. It should be also considered as a literary strategy because they illustrate ways of resisting any easy definitions or colonial labels of contemporary Native people in the US. For example, Etta Joseph in “Dear John Wayne” is subversive in that her story twists a colonial relationship between a white man and an ‘Indian princess.’