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김병갑,염성현,김유용,윤남규,신승엽,유석철 한국농업기계학회 2014 바이오시스템공학 Vol.39 No.3
Purpose: In order to develop strategies to prevent farm-work accidents relating to agricultural machinery, influential factors were examined in this paper. The effects of these factors were quantified using logistic regression. Methods: Based on the results of a survey on farm-work accidents conducted by the National Academy of Agricultural Science, 21 tentative independent variables were selected. To apply these variables to regression, the presence of multicollinearity was examined by comparing correlation coefficients, checking the statistical significance of the coefficients in a simple linear regression model, and calculating the variance inflation factor. A logistic regression model and determination method of its goodness of fit was defined. Results: Among 21 independent variables, 13 variables were not collinear each other. The results of a logistic regression analysis using these variables showed that the model was significant and acceptable, with deviance of 714.053. Parameter estimation results showed that four variables (age, power tiller ownership, cognizance of the government’s safety policy, and consciousness of safety) were significant. The logistic regression model predicted that the former two increased accident odds by 1.027 and 8.506 times, respectively, while the latter two decreased the odds by 0.243 and 0.545 times, respectively. Conclusions: Prevention strategies against factors causing an accident, such as the age of farmers and the use of a power tiller, are necessary. In addition, more efficient trainings to elevate the farmer’s consciousness about safety must be provided.
김병갑,신승엽,김유용,염성현,김진오 한국농업기계학회 2013 바이오시스템공학 Vol.38 No.1
Purpose: The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for the demand forecast of tractor, riding type ricetransplanter and combine harvester using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model, one of time seriesanalysis methods, and to forecast their demands from 2012 to 2021 in South Korea. Methods: To forecast the demands ofthree kinds of machines, ARIMA models were constructed by following three stages; identification, estimation and diagnose. Time series used were supply and stock of each machine and the analysis tool was SAS 9.2 for Windows XP. Results: Six finalmodels, supply based ones and stock based ones for each machine, were constructed from 32 tentative models identified byexamining the ACF (autocorrelation function) plots and the PACF (partial autocorrelation function) plots. All demand seriesforecasted by the final models showed increasing trends and fluctuations with two-year period. Conclusions: Some forecastresults of this study are not applicable immediately due to periodic fluctuation and large variation. However, it can beadvanced by incorporating treatment of outliers or combining with another forecast methods.
Improvement of the Distribution System for Used Agricultural Machinery
김병갑,이정민,김성옥 한국농업기계학회 2020 바이오시스템공학 Vol.45 No.4
Purpose As the supply of agricultural machinery has increases, the distribution of used machinery also increases. However, the legal system for their distribution is insufficient. The objective of this study was to develop an improved distribution system. Methods The first step in achieving this objective involved establishing a framework based on the analysis of current laws in Korea, alongside the distribution systems for both used agricultural machinery in Japan and used cars in Korea. The second stage included a survey on the distribution of used agricultural machinery from 28 dealers and 43 farmers, with the results informing the details of the framework. Results In the distribution systems for used agricultural machinery in Japan or used cars in Korea, dealers are registered and publicly announced, and there are dealer management organizations. The survey results showed that 91.3% of the dealers conducted pre-sale maintenance, 81.5% provided a warranty, and 85.7% were willing to apply for registration in the improved distribution system. Conclusion It is necessary to register and publicly announce dealers of used agricultural machinery and to establish a management organization. Moreover, registered dealers must perform pre-sale maintenance and provide a warranty to secure the quality of the goods. Furthermore, in the mid-to-long term, the management organization facilitates the distribution of used agricultural machinery and strengthens the competitiveness of the agricultural machinery industry by increasing exports, recycling used parts, and publishing price guidebooks.