수도권 주택 매매와 경매 거래량의 상관성 및 영향 요인 연구

정대석 재단법인 경기연구원 2019 GRI 연구논총 Vol.21 No.4

The purpose of this study is to analyze the correlations and external influence factors between the housing auction market and the housing sale market to find out whether the information is useful as an auction market. If meaningful results are obtained in time series, it can be expected to be used as housing policy information. The relationship between the number of auctions and the number of transactions in the housing sales and auction market, and the external factors affecting the volume of these transactions, were analyzed by the time series of the last 96 months. As a result, the volume of housing sales was one-way influenced on auction volume. In other words, the general housing sales market can be interpreted as preceding the housing auction market. This is relatively insignificant since the auction market accounts for a small portion of the overall market. In both sales and auction markets, the mortgage interest rate continued to be negative, while the currency amounts continued to be positive. That is in line with the market's general perception that interest rate cuts and currency increases could lead to increased housing transactions. The impact of the consumer sentiment index on the housing sales market was found to have a two-way effect on both the sale and auction markets. On the other hand, the remaining housing types showed a twoway effect only in the sales market and little effect in the auction market. Therefore, it can be summarized that the trading volume of homes plays a leading role in the auction transaction volume and forms the whole housing market. 본 연구의 목적은 주택 매매시장과 주택 경매시장의 상호 연관성 및 외부 영향 요인을 분석하여 경매시장이 주택시장의 일부로서 그 정보의 유용성이 있는 지 여부를 밝히고자 하는 것이다. 만약 시계열적으로 유의미한 결과가 도출된다면주택 정책 정보로서 그 활용을 기대할 수 있기 때문이다. 주택 매매 및 경매시장의 거래량인 매매건수와 경매건수의 영향 관계 및 이들 거래량에 영향을 미치는 외부 요인으로 소비심리지수, 금리, 통화량에 대해 주택 유형별로 그 관계를 최근 96개월간의 시계열자료를 통해 각각 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 주택 매매 거래량은 경매 거래량에 일방향의 영향 관계로 나타났다. 즉 일반 주택 매매시장은 주택 경매시장에 선행하는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 이는 전체 시장에서 경매시장이 차지하는 비중이 낮기 때문에 상대적으로 그 영향력이 미약한 것이라 판단된다. 매매시장 및 경매시장 모두 주택대출 금리는 지속적으로 음(-)의 관계, 통화량은 지속적으로 양(+)의 관계로 나타났다. 즉 금리 인하 및 통화량 증가는 주택 거래 증가로 연결될 수 있다는 시장의 일반적인인식과 부합하였다. 주택매매시장 소비심리지수의 영향은 아파트의 경우 매매 및 경매시장 모두 양방향 영향 관계인 것으로 나타났다. 반면 나머지 주택 유형에서는 매매시장에서만 양방향 영향 관계가 보였고 경매시장에서는 영향이 거의없는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 주택의 매매 거래량은 경매 거래량에 대해 선행적인 역할을 하면서 전체 주택 시장을 형성하고 있다고 요약할 수 있다.

패널 VAR모형을 이용한 한국 주택 매매, 전세시장에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae-Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2015 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.13 No.2

In this study, the dynamic relationships between the housing sales market and the Chonsei market use VAR model, and for the spatial range, 16 metropolitan cities·provinces are set, and for the timely range,from the first quarter of 2006 to third quarter of 2014 are set to divide before and after the global financial crisis to perform the empirical analysis. For the macroeconomic variables effecting the housing market, interest rate was set as CD interest rate, the economic growth and housing demand were set as number of economically active people, and finally, the housing supply was set as land transaction volume. As a result of the empirical analysis, the number of economically active people showed to have plus (+) effect and the land transaction volume to have minus (-) effect to the housing sales price in general. When we look at the difference before and after the financial crisis, in the period before the crisis, the Chonsei price and the CD interest rate had minus (-) effect on the housing sales price, but on the other hand, in the period after the crisis, it showed to have a plus (+) effect. This is because in the period before the financial cris, the housing sales market was in the increasing period, and realization of capital gain was possible through sales to have almost no influence of the lease market of housing Chonsei market to the housing sales market, but in the period after the crisis, the housing sales market maintained downward stabilization, but the Chonsei price increase to be judged that the Chonsei market has big influence on the sales market. Regarding influence of CD interest rate on the housing sales market, the reason that it showed plus (+) influence after the financial crisis is judged to be due to the reason that because the government executed continuous decrease in interest rate to activate the housing sales market, but the sales market is maintaining downward stabilization.

아파트 분양마케팅 활동과 초기계약률에 관한 연구

백민석 ( Min Seok Baik ),신종칠 ( Jong Chil Shin ) 한국부동산분석학회 2011 不動産學硏究 Vol.17 No.3

Condominiums (also known as apartment in Korea) are considered as the most typical residential type recently. It had been quite easy to find consumers for newly constructed condominiums when the supply was much less than the demand. However, as the housing supply has gradually been increasing, the conditions of residential housing market were changed to look for potential consumers. Consequently, more systematic and scientific sales marketing activities are required for successful condominium sales at the changed market environments. Therefore, the effective sales marketing activities are indispensable to meet the goal of successful condominium sales. Despite of the importance of sales marketing activities, there is little research on the effect of sales marketing activities on condominium sales. The previous research mainly focuses on the influence of condominium characteristics and environment characteristics on subscription rate which is a kind of purchase intention. To find out the impact of sales marketing activities on sales performance, this study examines how the condominium characteristics, environment characteristics, sales marketing characteristics are influencing initial sales rate. This study uses initial sales rate as dependent variable because it shows consumer`s real purchase behavior for condominium. To do empirical research, this study collects actual data of initial sales rate and sales marketing activities for condominium sales. This study finds out that characteristics of condominium to be sold, characteristics of environment in condominiums sales and characteristics of sales marketing have influence on initial sales rate. This study confirms that condominium characteristics and environment characteristics are important for successful condominium sales. This study shows that sales marketing activities such as newspaper advertising, event marketing and other marketing activities, have a significant impact on initial sales rate. This study suggests sales marketing activities play an important role in successful condominium sales, and also contributes in laying the foundations for empirical study on condominium sales marketing.

주택임대시장 균형조건을 이용한주택매매가격 대비 전세가격 비율 결정요인 분석: 주택매매가격 변동성을 중심으로

정의철,이창무 한국부동산분석학회 2018 不動産學硏究 Vol.24 No.4

Traditional approach to analyze the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is based on asset market equilibrium condition. However, this approach does not fully account for complexity involved in Korean rental housing market, where Chonsei, Monthly-rent-with-variable deposit, and pure monthly rental contracts coexist. In this paper, we utilize each rental type’s different rate of return structure and examine the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio based on rental housing market equilibrium condition. We further incorporate housing price volatility into the analysis as a critical variable related to housing investment risks, which has been ignored in previous studies. Our empirical analysis using a sample of the apartment sales price and rent in Seoul confirm our theoretical predictions: Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is positively linked to the rent-to-price ratio and housing price volatility, and the ratio is negatively affected by the expected housing price appreciation rate. The relationship between the Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and housing price volatility was robust to different measures of housing price volatility. The long-run elasticity of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio with respect to rent- to-price ratio was estimated to be 1.04~1.22 and the long-run elasticity of the ratio with respect to housing price volatility was estimated to be 0.15~0.53. which is about 50 to 100 percent of the long-run elasticity with respect to expected housing price appreciation rate. These results show that previously ignored housing price volatility is one of important variables to affect Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and risk factors are needed to be considered to better understand Korean housing market.

주택소비자심리지수와 매매수급동향이 아파트 경매 낙찰가율에 미치는 영향 -강남구, 서초구, 송파구를 중심으로-

임진영,유선종,신보연,신은정 건국대학교 부동산도시연구원 2022 부동산 도시연구 Vol.15 No.1

The housing market consumer index, the trends of sales price index and the auction bid price ratio are used as indicators to judge and the real estate market. Whereas there have been several studies that analyzed the relationship between the auction bid price ratio and the housing market consumer index, studies on the trends of sales price index are insufficient. This study examined the determinants of the auction bid price ratio in apartment auctions, and through empirical analysis with the housing market consumer index and the trends of sales price index, it tried to find out how the two indices affect the real estate auction market. The study set the time scope to 6 years between January, 2015 and December, 2020 and the space scope to Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu of Seoul. Independent variables were set as housing market, auction, local, location, article, and time of a successful bid. The analysis method used multiple linear regression analysis using a hedonic price model. As a result of analysis, it was found that the housing market consumer index and the trends of sales price index have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. Moreover, the failure in bidding, the land registration, the tenants with opposing power, and the lien have a negative effect on the auction bid price ratio, and the number of bidders has a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. In addition, more than 30 years of elapsed years, small and medium sized space, and medium-large sized space have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio, and the timepoint of 2018, 2019, and 2020 were found to have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. It is expected that auction bidders will be able to make rational decisions by judging and predicting the situation of the real estate market and auction market. 주택소비자심리지수, 매매수급동향, 낙찰가율은 부동산시장을 판단 및 예측하는 지표로 사용된다. 부동산 경매 낙찰가율과 주택소비자심리지수의 관계를 분석한 연구는 기존에도 많이 이루어진 반면, 매매수급동향에 관한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 아파트 경매 낙찰가율의 결정요인을 검토하고, 주택소비자심리지수와 매매수급동향을 실증분석함으로써 두 지수가 부동산 경매시장에는 어떤 영향을 미치는지 알아보고자 하였다. 시간적 범위를 2015년 1월부터 2020년 12월까지 6년으로 설정하고, 공간적 범위는 서울시 강남구, 서초구, 송파구를 대상으로 표본을 수집하였다. 선행연구를 참고하여 독립변수를 주택매매시장특성변수, 경매특성변수, 지역특성변수, 입지특성변수, 물건특성변수, 낙찰시점특성변수로 설정하였으며, 분석방법으로는 헤도닉 가격 모형을 통한 다중선형회귀분석을 활용하였다. 실증분석 결과 주택소비자심리지수와 매매수급동향은 낙찰가율에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 유찰여부, 토지별도등기 여부, 대항력 있는 임차인 여부, 유치권 여부는 낙찰가율에 음의 영향을 미쳤으며, 응찰자 수는 낙찰가율에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 경과년수 30년 이상, 중형 이하 평수와 중대형 평수는 낙찰가율에 양의 영향을 미쳤으며, 낙찰시점의 경우 2018년, 2019년, 2020년이 낙찰가율에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 토대로 향후 경매 입찰자들이 부동산 시장 및 경매 시장의 상황을 판단하고 예측함으로써 합리적인 의사결정을 할 수 있기를 기대해 본다.

Consumer Sentiment and Housing a Market Activities

Eui-Chul Chung(정의철),Donald R. Haurin 한국주택학회 2010 주택연구 Vol.18 No.4

본 연구에서는 소비자의 주택구입 심리가 주택판매량 및 착공량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 주택판매량 및 착공량과 시장기본요인 및 주택구입 심리간의 장.단기적 관계를 파악하기 위해 오차수정모형을 구축하였으며, 미국의 1971년 2분기부터 2008년 1분기까지의 분기별 시계열 자료를 이용하여 모형을 추정하였다. 추정결과 주택판매량(신규 및 기존주택 판매량) 및 착공량과 소비자 주택구입 심리 및 주요 경제변수들 사이에는 공적분관계가 성립하였으며 장기균형에 수렴하는 오차수정 메카니즘이 존재하였다. 단기적 불균형을 조정하는 속도는 신규 주택판매량이 상대적으로 높았으며, 기존주택 판매량이 상대적으로 낮았다. 소비자 주택구입 심리지수는 주택판매량과 착공량의 단기적 변화에 영향을 주는 주요 변수 중 하나로 나타났다. 또한 소비자 주택구입 심리지수는 주택판매량과 착공량에 대하여 다기간 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었으며 이러한 영향이 주택시장의 변동성에 영향을 주었을 것으로 판단된다. 한편 소비자 주택구입 심리지수가 설명변수로 포함된 모형은 그렇지 않은 모형에 비해 모형의 설명력을 크게 증대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 신규주택 판매량을 종속변수로 이용한 모형의 경우 조정된 결정계수 값이 0.23, 기존주택 판매량의 경우 0.29, 주택착공량의 경우 0.15만큼 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 종합적으로 볼 때 소득, 금리, 주택생산비용 등 시장기본요인들이 주택판매량과 착공량을 설명하는데 중요하지만 소비자 심리지수 또한 매우 중요하고 가치있는 추가적인 정보를 제공한다고 볼 수 있다. This study examines the influenced of consumers’ sentiment about the housing market on housing market outcomes. Error correction models are estimated focusing on the long run properties and short run dynamics of home sales and housing starts. We find that home sales and housing starts are cointegrated with a measure of consumer sentiment as well as key economic variables, and there exists an error correction mechanism in home sales and housing starts. The speed of adjustment correcting disequilibrium conditions is relatively fast in the new home sales market and relatively slow in the existing home sales market. Consumer sentiment is found to be one of the major variables affecting the short run change in home sales and housing starts. The consumer sentiment variable also produces a multiperiod effect on housing and this effect likely increases the volatility of the market. Overall, our results indicate that market fundamental variables are not sufficient statistics to represent observed housing market outcomes and consumers’ attitudes provide significant and valuable additional information.

아파트분양마케팅의 성과관리에 관한 연구

백민석(Baik, Min-Seok),신종칠(Shin, Jong-Chil) 한국주거환경학회 2012 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.10 No.3

In this study, the number of inbound calls is considered as the mediating performance variable of sales marketing activities to the sales of condominium. This study focuses on examining how the initial sales rate are influencing the process of actual condominium sales, and also analyzes the influence of inbound calls on the condominium sales. The results of empirical analysis are as follows. First of all, various sales marketing activities have effect on the number of inbound calls. And the number of inbound calls has influence on the condominium sales. After all, regarding the answers for whether the characteristic factors of sales marketing activities significantly influence the initial sales rate, this study shows that sales marketing activities positively affect the sales marketing performance through the number of inbound calls. This study shows the number of inbound calls is important mediating performance variable of condominium sales marketing program. This study suggests it is an essential assignment for the management of successful condominium sales marketing program to effectively manage inbound calls in the process of condominium sales marketing.

하위시장별 전세시장 구조특성에 관한 연구

김태경,권대한,최준영 경기연구원 2012 경기개발연구원 기본연구 Vol.2012 No.6

The Purpose of this study is to find reasons of jeonse stock shortage exploring determinants of the housing sale price to jeonse price rations in housing sub-markets of the Seoul metropolitan area. In addition to this, the factors affecting rental contract types are analyzed. Based on the theoretical relationships among housing sale price, jeonse price, and monthly rental price, the spatial structures of housing sub-markets, and a survey questionnaire, the various factors affecting housing sale price to jeonse price ratios are analyzed. This research could be differentiated to the existing studies in terms that the spatial characteristics of more fractionized housing sub-markets, and the individualities and their thinking about housing policy of people living in them, are synthetically analyzed using a more structural approach. Inclusion of market demand changes in this research is also could be regarded as a uniqueness. It is found that spatial dependency to the regional job market of housing sub-markets is very serious, so it must be reconsidered. The cities having dependency to the adjacent regional job market must survive independently bringing up their unique strengths and their own cultural features. It is also found that the exiting features of rental housing market cannot be fit for the current varying demands, so the types of rental housing policy must be reestablished considering the changing demands of the housing markets.

평가기반 아파트가격지수에서의 비대칭 평활화 현상에 관한 연구

박연우(Yun-Woo Park),방두완(Doo-Won Bang) 한국주택학회 2011 주택연구 Vol.19 No.2

본 연구에서는 대표적인 평가기반 아파트가격지수인 국민은행 아파트가격지수의 평활화 현상(smoothing)을 국토해양부가 공표하고 있는 실거래가격으로 만든 반복매매지수(repeat sales index)를 사용하여 조사하였다. 실증분석결과를 요약하면 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 평활화가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 상승시장에서는 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 실거래 아파트가격지수를 상대적으로 빨리 추적하고 하락시장에서는 상대적으로 천천히 추적하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 변동성도 실거래 아파트가격지수의 변동성에 비해 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 더욱 작은 것으로 분석되었다. 새로운 거래가격이 평가에 반영되는 정도는 하락시장에서는 20%, 상승시장에서는 45% 정도인 것으로 나타났다. 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 측정오차(measurement errors)모형의 분석결과 하락기에 확대되는 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 평활화 현상은 지속되는 경향이 강하다는 것을 확인하였다. 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 평활화현상이 아파트가격 상승기보다 하락기에 더 큰 것은 적은 거래량의 영향도 있지만 하락기 고유의 영향도 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 전체적으로 요약한다면 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 평활화 효과가 크게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. We investigate the smoothing phenomenon in the Kookmin Bank apartment price index, the most widely used appraisal based apartment price index in Korea using a repeat sales index based on the transaction data published by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. In summary, we find that there is a greater degree of smoothing in the appraisal based apartment price index during the up market than the down market, that is, the appraisal based apartment price index tracks the sales price based index relatively slowly during the down market while it tracks the sales price based index relatively fast during the up market. The volatility in the sales price based index is far greater than the volatility in the appraisal based price index during the down market, but not during the up market. Only about one quarter of the new sale prices are priced in the appraisal during the down market while the new sale prices account for almost half of the appraisal based apartment price index during the up market. We also show that during the down market the appraisal based apartment price index reduces the gap from the sales price based index in subsequent periods only limitedly so that the smoothing during the down market tends to be persistent. We find that the transaction volume, which is a measure of information in sale prices, has a negative influence on the gap between the appraisal based apartment price index and the sales price based index. However, even when we control for the volume effect, the down market effect is still present suggesting that the asymmetrical smoothing between the down market and the up market is caused not only by the information effect of volume but also by other factors present in the down market. Our findings are generally consistent with the asymmetrical smoothing hypothesis where the smoothing in the appraisal based apartment price index is greater during the down market than during the up market.

주택 매매시장과 전세시장 간의 정보 이전효과

최차순(choi, cha-soon) 한국부동산정책학회 2021 不動産政策硏究 Vol.22 No.1

This paper examines the information spillover effects between housing sales and chonsei markets using EGARCH model as time series data for the housing sales and chonsei price index. The EGARCH model was used to examine the asymmetric volatility of information, and the overall analysis period is from January 1986 to December 2020, the empirical analysis was conducted by dividing the period from January 1986 to December 1997 before the foreign exchange crisis, and from January 1998 to December 2020 after the foreign exchange crisis. The result of the study is as follows. First, the EGARCH(1,1) model considering asymmetric volatility is suitable. Second, the price spillover effect between housing sales and chonsei markets was positive during the post-exchange crisis period, and the volatility spillover effect was found to have a minor negative effect in both markets. Third, the asymmetric volatility spillover effect exists in two markets, but it is significant in the post-exchange crisis period, indicating that the coupling phenomenon between the two markets is close. The housing market is also more sensitive to good news than bad news. Therefore, policies need to be implemented from a mutually organic perspective to stabilize the housing market.