포스트 코로나 시대 부동산시장의 전망과 과제

최충익(Choongik Choi) 한국부동산정책학회 2023 不動産政策硏究 Vol.24 No.3

본 논문은 코로나19가 부동산 시장에 미친 영향과 포스트 코로나 시대 부동산 시장의 변화와 대응방안에 대한 시사점을 도출하고 있다. 본 연구는 코로나19 팬데믹이 부동산 시장에 큰 영향을 미쳤으며, 소비자 선호도, 행동, 경제적 요인에 변화를 일으켜 주거용, 상업용, 소매용 부동산을 포함한 다양한 부문에 영향을 미쳤음에 착안한다. 연구 결과, 부동산 시장이 팬데믹의 영향에 따라 도전과 기회가 발생하는 새로운 현실에 적응하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 주거용 부동산 시장은 주택 구매자들이 공간, 프라이버시, 원격 근무와 온라인 교육을 수용할 수 있는 기능을 우선시하면서 교외 및 외곽 지역으로 이동하고 있었다. 상업용 및 소매용 부동산 시장은 기업들이 원격 근무와 소비자 행동의 변화에 적응하면서 어려움을 겪는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과는 전 세계 포스트 코로나 시대부동산 시장이 소비자와 기업 모두의 변화하는 요구를 충족하기 위해 계속 진화해야 함을 시사한다. This article aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market and the changes necessary to navigate the post-pandemic world. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the real estate market, causing changes in consumer preferences, behaviors, and economic factors that have affected various sectors, including residential, commercial, and retail properties. As a result, the industry has had to adapt to a new reality, with challenges and opportunities arising in response to the pandemic's effects. The residential real estate market has seen a shift towards suburban and rural areas, with homebuyers prioritizing space, privacy, and features that accommodate remote work and virtual schooling. Meanwhile, commercial and retail properties have faced challenges as businesses adapt to remote work and changes in consumer behavior. This paper supports that as the world transitions into a post-pandemic era, the real estate industry must continue to evolve to meet the changing needs of consumers and businesses alike.

공공임대주택 정책의 성과평가 기준에 대한 연구

김천일(Chunil Kim),지규현(Kyu-Hyun Ji),고진수(Jinsoo Ko) 한국부동산정책학회 2023 不動産政策硏究 Vol.24 No.2

개요: 정부의 공공임대주택 정책이 공급 확대에 초점을 두고 진행됨에 따라 공공임대주택에 대한 성과 측정도 공급 측면에 한정하여 진행되었다. 특히 기존 건설형 공공임대주택을 하나로 통합하고, 입주자격과 임대료체계를 단일한 체계로 개선 중이나 기존 재고주택의 재공급에 대한 고려는 여전히 미흡한 실정이다. 현재 공공임대주택 관련 성과 지표는 공공임대주택 정책 전반에 대한 균형감 있는 성과 분석을 시행하는데 한계점을 드러내고 있다. 공공임대주택 정책과 관련하여 양적·질적 개선이 필요하다는 점에서 현 상황의 정확한 진단을 통해 동 정책에 대한 성과 분석 기준의 고도화가 절실하다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 국내외 관련 문헌고찰을 통해 체계적·종합적 성과 분석 기준을 정립하고 성과평가 지표를 도출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 최종적으로 계획 수립 부문, 신규 공급 부문, 관리 운영 부문에 대해 성과 지표가 도출되었으며, 각 지표에 대한 측정자료를 제시하였다. As the government’s public rental housing policy has mainly focused on supply, performance measures for public housing policies has also been limited to the supply side. In particular, while different housing types integrated into a single, united system, the use of existing stock is still unsatisfactory. Currently, performance indicators related to public housing show some limitations in conducting a balanced performance analysis for the integrated public housing system. Given the need for quantitative and qualitative improvements, it is imperative to advance the performance analysis standards via an accurate diagnosis of the current situation. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to establish systematic and comprehensive performance analysis standards; and (2) to derive performance evaluation indicators through an extensive literature review. New performance indicators were developed for the planning sector, new supply sector, and management sector with suggesting the corresponding measurement data.

부동산학 연구에서 근린의 보행친화성(Walkability)은 중요한가?

김은정(Eun Jung Kim) 한국부동산정책학회 2023 不動産政策硏究 Vol.24 No.2

개요: 본 연구는 근린의 보행친화성(Walkability)과 부동산 분야의 연관성에 대한 선행연구들을 검토하여, 이 두 이슈간에 어떠한 학술적 논의가 있었는지 알아보고, 이를 토대로 부동산학 분야에서 근린의 보행친화적 환경의 함의를 탐색하는 데 있다. 연구방법으로는 Web of Science Core Collection을 활용하여 보행친화성과 부동산 관련 키워드를 조합하여 2000년부터 2023년 7월 현재까지 출판된 논문(Articles)을 대상으로 하였다. 체계적 문헌고찰을 위해 PRISMA(Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses) 지침을 활용하여 선별과정을 거쳤으며, 이 결과 총 23건의 학술문헌을 최종적으로 선별하였다. 인용보고서(Citation Report) 분석결과, 근린의 보행친화성과 부동산 관련 문헌들은 지난 십여 년 전부터 나타나기 시작했고, 출판 편수 및 인용횟수가 최근 들어 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 이에 더해, 기존 도시계획 분야에서 주로 다루어지던 근린의 보행친화성 이슈가 경제학 및 비즈니스 금융 분야에서도 논의되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 주제별 분석결과, 관련 문헌들이 보행친화성과 주택가격, 보행친화성과 부동산 가치 및 매력도, 보행친화적인 도시개발 사업과 주택가격 등 크게 세 가지 주제로 구분되었다. 이 세 주제에서 공통적으로 보행친화적인 도시환경은 부동산 가격 및 가치를 높이는데 긍정적인 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 기존에 학술적 차원에서 많이 검토되지 않았던 근린의 보행친화성과 부동산을 함께 논의한 선행연구를 종합적으로 검토했다는 데 의의가 있다. 본 연구를 기반으로 부동산학 분야에서 도시의 보행친화성에 대한 정책적 관심이 나타나기를 기대한다. This study examines previous studies on the relationship between neighborhood walkability and the real estate to find out what academic discussions have been made between these two issues, and to explore the implications of walkable environments in the real estate studies. For systematic literature review, a selection process was conducted using PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses) guideline, and a total of 23 academic papers were selected. According to the citation report, articles related to walkability in the real estate studies began to appear more than a decade ago, and the number of publications and citations has tended to increase in recent years. In addition, the issue of walkable environment, which was mainly dealt with in the urban planning studies, was also being discussed in the fields of economics and business finance. The 23 articles were largely divided into three thematic groups: walkability and housing prices, walkable and property values, and making walkable environment projects and housing prices. In these three topics, it was found that the walkable environment plays a positive role in increasing housing prices and property values. This study is meaningful in that it comprehensively reviewed previous studies that discussed neighborhood walkability and real estate, which have not been reviewed much from the academic perspective. Based on this study, it is expected that making walkable environment will emerge in the field of real estate industry.

고속철도 개통 전후의 주택가격 구조 변화 분석

고영선(Ko Young Son),정재호(Chung, Jae-Ho) 한국부동산정책학회 2012 不動産政策硏究 Vol.13 No.2

Hugh speed train station can be a gateway, and it has the main frame of urban space structure. It will have great influences to the regional growth, and it will be expected to the increase of real estate market to secure efficiency improvement of land and commercial development. It can be the appropriate methods to analyze the differences empirically by simultaneous equations of housing price characteristics models, but this has the limitations for the assumptions of housing price structure changes. And housing has special characteristics and housing market is relatively huge differences compared with completely competitive markets. This study has analyzed by Chow test toverify structural changes of apartments prices after the opening of KTX by additional dummy variables. In conclusion, KTX gave the structural change on apartments prices. Furthermore there are variables to influence structural changes of apartments prices in Daejeon station area after the opening of KTX: that is the number of passengers and the number of employees among the number of passengers, the number of companies, the number of employees, commercial development, and the total development floor area in KTX characteristics variables.

상암디지털미디어시티 개발이 지역 부동산 시장에 미치는 영향 분석

김학균(Kim, Hak Kyun),이성근(Lee, Sung-Gun) 한국부동산정책학회 2017 不動産政策硏究 Vol.18 No.1

This research was to suggest and propose the implications in the future policies of large scale development projects such as Sangam Digital Media City development through analyzing effects affecting local real estate markets. As for the method, it had made surveys that affect the real estate markets surrounding the Sangam Digital Media City Project was carried out, so to reflect in its analysis. As a result of the analysis, factors that were analyzed to be affecting the changes in the trade prices had been turned out to be 6 factors, namely on factors such as mixed use of housing and commercial purpose building (apartment complex), car parking capacity, rate of lease changes, railway station sphere distance, subject of being rebuilt, or being subjected as realigning project establishment areas, while at the same time, such factors aforementioned plus number of elementary schools were also the factors that affected lease changes. Finally, the factors analyzed to affect the changes in the appraised land prices, were five factors that were land-to-floor ratio, trade price changes, distance from the railway station access areas, whether subjected as realignment plans, or being in accessible towards Sangam Digital Media City.

신분당선 및 광교테크노밸리 주변 아파트 가격 영향요인 분석

손진만(Son, Jin-Man),송호창(Song, Ho-Chang) 한국부동산정책학회 2020 不動産政策硏究 Vol.21 No.2

This study analyzed the changes in apartment prices around the new town area connected to the subway and Techno Valley in order to overcome the limitations that existing prior studies have focused on changes in apartment prices before and after the opening of the Shinbundang Line and on high-tech industrial complexes. According to the analysis, six variables, including the total number of households, the rate of increase in the number of households, the rate of increase in the official land price, the distance from Shinbundang Line Station, the distance from Gyeonggi Convergence Town, and the distance from Gwanggyo Techno Valley, affect the rate of increase and decrease in the sale price. In particular, the empirical analysis showed that the closer the distance from Shinbundang Line Station, the higher the sale price of apartments, and the closer the distance, the higher the sale price of apartments in Gwanggyo Techno Valley. In addition, it was confirmed that the distance to Gyeonggi Convergence Town had a positive effect on the rise in apartment sales prices. Next, the factors affecting the rate of increase and decrease in the rental price of apartments in Gwanggyo area were analyzed to affect the rate of increase and decrease of rental prices by six variables, including the total number of households, the number of elementary schools, the distance to the Shinbundang Line, the distance to Gwanggyo Techno Valley, and the rate of increase and decrease of employees in Gwanggyo Techno Valley. In particular, the closer the distance from Shinbundang Line Station and Gwanggyo Techno Valley, the more positive the increase rate of jeonse prices, and in the case of jeonse price fluctuation, the less significant the impact was on the distance from Gyeonggi Convergence Town.

오피스 시장에서 비체계적 위험과 투자수익률간의 관계

이경근(Kyung-Keun Lee),정재훈(Jae-Hun Jung),전재범(Jae-Bum Jun) 한국부동산정책학회 2023 不動産政策硏究 Vol.24 No.1

본 연구에서는 서울시 전체 및 권역별 오피스 시장의 분기별 투자수익률과 CD(91일) 수익률 자료를 토대로 서울시 권역별 오피스 시장의 초과 투자수익률과 SCL을 도출(Fama & Macbeth, 1973; 박종권, 2016; 이경근·전재범, 2021a)한 후, 이를 토대로 비체계적 위험을 추출한 뒤(김성신, 2016; 이경근·전재범, 2021b) 권역별 오피스 시장의 비체계적 위험-초과 투자수익률간의 관계를 분석 및 고찰하였으며 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 1) 서울시 권역별 오피스 시장의 비체계적 위험-초과 투자수익률관계에 있어, CBD 권역은 저위험-저수익, YBD 권역은 고위험-고수익 성향을 보였다. 또한, 총위험-투자수익률의 경우, ETC 권역의 위험이 GBD 권역보다는 높으나 비체계적 위험은 GBD 권역 보다는 낮아 위험의 종류에 따라 서로다른 위험-수익 특성을 보여줬다. 2) 서울시 권역별 오피스 시장의 비체계적 위험-초과 투자수익률간 관계에 있어 모든 권역이 비체계적 위험의 영향을 받는 시장이긴 하나 비체계적 위험 대비 초과 투자수익률의 증감은 서로 상이했다. 3) 서울시 권역별 오피스 시장의 비체계적 위험당 초과 투자수익률은 오피스 빌딩의 매매가 상승률에 따라 상이했으며 YBD 권역을 제외한 모든 권역에서 NOI의 상승에 의한 비체계적 위험당 초과 투자수익률의 변화는 확인할수 없었다. 결론적으로, 본 연구는 서울시 오피스 시장에서 비체계적 위험의 존재여부와 비체계적 위험-투자수익률간의 통계적 유의성을 검증하고 그 결과를 시장상황과 연계한 종합적 분석을 통해 관련 시사점을 도출했다는 점에서 의의를 지니나 활용된 자료의 일부가 거래가치가 결여된 값을 포함하고 있으며 결과의 분석에 있어 정성적인 방법이 활용된 점은 연구의 한계로 여겨진다. In this paper, the excess ROI(Return on Investment) and SCL(Security Characteristic Line) ofthe Seoul office market by region are driven based on the ROI of the Seoul office market and CD(91days) rate of return(quarterly), then with this, idiosyncratic risk is extracted, and the idiosyncraticrisk-excess rate of return on investment relationship in the office market by district is analyzed. Finally,the results driven from this study is as follows; 1) Regarding the idiosyncratic risk-excess ROIrelationship by district in Seoul, the CBD shows a low risk-low return tendency, and the YBD showsa high risk-high return. Moreover, in the case of total risk-return, the risk of the ETC is higher thanthat of the GBD, but the idiosyncratic risk is lower than that of the GBD, showing different risk-returncharacteristics depending on the type of risk. 2) As to the idiosyncratic risk-excess investment returnrelationship by district in Seoul, although all districts are markets affected by idiosyncratic risk, thegrowth rate in excess return compared to idiosyncratic risk are different. 3) The excess return oninvestment/idiosyncratic risk by district differs according to the growth rate in office buildings’ salesprice, and no change in the excess return on investment per idiosyncratic risk due to the increase inNOI could be confirmed in all district but YBD. Finally, this paper is meaningful in that it verifies theexistence of idiosyncratic risk in the Seoul office market and the statistical significance betweenidiosyncratic risk-return on investment, and derives related implications through a comprehensiveanalysis relevant to the market situation.

서울시 중소형 오피스빌딩 매매가격 결정요인 연구

정천희(Jeong, Cheon-hee),백성준(Baek, Sung-joon) 한국부동산정책학회 2015 不動産政策硏究 Vol.16 No.1

In this study we examine what variables are influential factors that determine the sales price of a small and medium office building in Gangnam Business District. Typically in the case of a small and medium office building, width of adjacent road, distance from a station, rental yields, and official price are the important factors. Also we consider these factors as independent variables in the regression model, which is to verify the determinant factors of office buildings sales price. We are to adopt and use the real office building sales price rather than an appraisal price of the office building for the purpose of evaluating the requirements.

주택시장과 오피스시장간 동태적 상관분석 : 서울시를 중심으로

이강훈(Lee, Kang-Hun),서충원(Suh, Chung-Won) 한국부동산정책학회 2021 不動産政策硏究 Vol.22 No.2

This study demonstrated the dynamic correlation among the Seoul housing sales price, the Seoul housing rent price, the Seoul apartment lease price, the large office building rent pice, and the vacancy rate from the first quarter of 2009 to the last quarter of 2020 by a time series analysis. As the result of analysis, it is confirmed that there are no cointegration relation among the variables, so VAR model is selected for the next analysis. Also, from Granger causality test, this study confirmed that SRLI Granger Cause SRRI, SRRI Granger Cause SRSI, SRSI Granger Cause SOV and SOV Granger Cause SOR sequentially. Based on the results of Granger causality this study choose the ordering of variables for the impulse response function and analyzed it. Main results from the analysis are as follows. First, for the shock to SRLI, SRRI has positive response by 7 quarters and then, converge to 0 and SRSI has negative response after 2 quarters, and then the effect disappeared. Second, for the shock of SRLI, SOV and SOR have positive responses respectively, and then, the magnitude of the effects is not significant.

공공임대주택 유형별 근린환경 특성과 주거만족도 비교분석 연구

원재웅(Won, Jae-woong),이재수(Lee, Jae-Su) 한국부동산정책학회 2018 不動産政策硏究 Vol.19 No.2

The policy for public rental houses has mitigated the housing shortage problem for low-income households in Korea. The public rental housing is now provided as diverse types differentiated by region, residential type, and supplier. Studies have examined the factors associated with residents satisfaction on their neighborhood environments for implementing more effective public rental housing policies. However, most studies used perceived neighborhood environmental factors, which were also measured with very limited, vague survey items. In this study, we examined how objective neighborhood environmental factors are different across the types of public rental housing, using geospatial data from diverse sources published by public. We found the significant difference in the neighborhood factors across the types of public rental housing. The results suggest the future research that explores the associations between objective neighborhood measures and resident s satisfaction.