연구논문 : 전력부문 온실가스 배출 관련 지자체의 책임성에 관한 연구

진상현 ( Sang Hyeon Jin ),황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ),한준 ( Joon Han ) 한국환경정책학회 2011 環境政策 Vol.19 No.1

The major issue of this era is how climate change can be solved. But even though most people are interested in this problem, climate change is becoming more serious. This is called the Giddens` paradox. So it is important to distinguish the emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) and set the target of reduction. In other words, the solution of this paradox is related to responsibility of climate change. Local governments which are in charge of climate change, also know the seriousness of this problem. They try to reduce GHG emissions as well as the central governments. Nevertheless, local governments have also been in a dilemma of climate change responsibility like the central governments. In other words, there are similar issues on the details of the level of local governments : whose area is more responsible for GHG emissions, what their target of reduction is and how it can be achieved. In particular, electricity is the hottest potato in this issue among all the other energy sources. So this paper will review their responsibility for GHG emissions in electricity sector theoretically and empirically. Then, conclusions and implications of responsibility for GHG emissions will be drawn in this paper. Finally, these can be arranged in the three dimensions : the responsible agent, the scope, and the scheme for the assignment. In conclusion, cities which consume electricity must be in charge of GHG including all the indirect emissions in the way for users to take responsibility.

연구논문 : 사회후생함수를 중심으로 한 기후경제통합-지역평가모형 비교분석

황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2016 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.25 No.1

기후경제통합평가모형(Integrated assessment model of climate and the economy)은 기후변화에 관한 경제 분석과 정책제안을 위한 필수적인 도구가 되어왔다. 최근에는 기후변화에 대응하기 위한 정책적 노력들이 대부분 국가 또는 지역 수준에서 일어난다는 인식 하에 국가 또는 지역에서의 기후변화 영향과 정책수단의 효과를 평가할 수 있는 기후경제통합-지역평가모형(Regional integrated assessment model of climate and the economy)의 중요성이 더욱 커지고 있다. 이 논문에서는 국내에서 기후경제통합-지역평가모형을 개발하기 위한 첫 번째 단계로서 사회후생함수를 중심으로 기후경제통합-지역평가모형을 이론적으로 유형화했으며, RICE(Regional integrated climate-economy model) 모형을 통해 기후변화 대응전략에 따른 국가별 기후변화정책의 변화를 수치적으로 살펴보았다. 변화하는 국제 상황, 새롭게 드러나는 과학적 증거, 국내 여건 등을 모두 반영한 기후변화정책을 수립하기 위해서는 이를 분석할 수 있는 효과적인 도구를 갖추고 있어야 한다. 이 논문에서 살펴본 기후경제통합-지역평가모형은 이를 위한 유용한 도구가 될 수 있다. An integrated assessment model of climate and the economy (IAM) has been a standard tool for the economic analysis of climate change and policy recommendations. Since policy measures to address climate change take places at a national level, a regional integrated assessment model of climate and the economy (RIAM) is gaining more importance. A RIAM is a useful tool for the assessment of regional (or national) impacts of climate change. This paper investigates the main features of the currently available RIAMs. The focus is social welfare functions and the regional aspects of climate change. The comparative analysis shows that there is a huge gap between the economics of climate change and its applications to RIAMs. As an application, this paper examines the effect of social welfare functions on optimal solutions of the RICE (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) model. It is found that optimal climate policy such as carbon tax or emissions control rate is very sensitive to the assumptions on social welfare functions of RIAMs. It is better for each country to have their own RIAM as a basic tool for national climate policy-making and for international bargaining in greenhouse-gas mitigation. This is because a country`s own preferences such as efficiency, equity, and sustainable development as well as national circumstances can be reflected in RIAM. The Republic of Korea has not developed its own RIAM yet. The comparative analysis and the numerical model in this paper can be a stepping stone for the development of such a national model.

기후경제 모형의 불확실성 분석 방법 비교분석 및 FUND 모형 응용

황인창,Hwang, In Chang 한국자원경제학회 2017 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.26 No.3

에너지 및 기후변화 정책을 수립하는 데 있어 경제모형은 중요한 역할을 한다. 자원의 효율적인 사용에 관한 경제이론을 바탕으로 공공의 정책을 평가하고 나아가야 할 방향을 제시할 수 있기 때문이다. 개인의 의사결정뿐 아니라 공공의 의사결정에서 불확실성은 중요한 영향을 미친다. 최근 학계를 중심으로 에너지 및 기후변화 문제와 관련하여 불확실성이 모형의 결과에 미치는 영향이 강조되고 있으며, 몇몇 모형들에서는 불확실성을 명시적으로 반영하고 있다. 그러나 국내에서 사용하고 있는 에너지 및 기후경제 모형의 경우 대체로 결정론적인 분석틀을 사용하고 있어 에너지 및 기후변화 문제가 갖고 있는 불확실성을 반영하지 못한다는 문제점이 있다. 발생 가능한 다양한 경우에 대해서도 견고한 의사결정의 중요성이 강조되고 있다는 측면에서도 불확실성 분석의 필요성은 더욱 커지고 있다. 이에 이 논문은 불확실성 분석에 관한 이론을 검토하고, 이론에 근거해 불확실성과 관련한 에너지 및 기후경제 모형의 최근 연구 결과를 분석하며, 국내 모형들이 불확실성 분석을 수행할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 또한 수치 모형 응용으로서 FUND 모형을 불확실성을 반영해 수정한 후 국내 기후변화 피해비용을 분석하였다. 이 논문은 에너지 및 기후경제 모형과 관련하여 불확실성 분석 관련 내용을 종합적으로 검토하고 향후 국내 모형에서 적용할 수 있는 방안을 제시한다는 점에서 기여하는 바가 있다. Uncertainty is central to energy and climate policy. A growing number of literature show that almost all components of energy and climate models are, to some extent, uncertain and that the effect of uncertainty on the model outputs, in turn policy recommendations, is significantly large. Most existing energy and climate-economy models developed and used in Korea, however, do not take uncertainty into account explicitly. Rather, many models conduct a deterministic analysis or do a simple (limited) sensitivity analysis. In order to help social planners to make more robust decisions (across various plausible situations) on energy and climate change issues, an uncertainty analysis should be conducted. As a first step, this paper reviews the theory of decision making under uncertainty and the method for addressing uncertainty of existing probabilistic energy and climate-economy models. In addition, the paper proposes a strategy to apply an uncertainty analysis to energy and climate-economy models used in Korea. Applying the uncertainty analysis techniques, this paper revises the FUND model and investigates the impacts of climate change in Korea.

미세먼지 해법의 올바른 방향 - 미세먼지 대응, 새로운 방향 설정이 필요하다

황인창,Hwang, In-Chang 대한석유협회 2018 석유와 에너지 Vol.2018 No.-

2018년 1월 국내에서는 처음으로 환경부와 수도권 지자체를 중심으로 '미세먼지 비상저감조치(이하 비상조치)'가 시행되었다. 공교롭게도 지방선거를 5개월 앞둔 시점에 비상조치가 시행되면서 언론 등을 통해 논란이 증폭된 점을 부인할 수는 없지만, 비상조치에 대한 뜨거운 논쟁은 최근 수년간 미세먼지 문제에 대한 시민들의 인식과 불편함이 상당히 높아져 왔음을 보여주는 사례이다. 일정 조건을 충족하면 비상조치가 언제라도 다시 시행될 수 있다는 점에서, 빠른 시일 안에 지난 1월의 경험을 돌아보고 우리 사회가 나아가야 할 방향을 재정립할 필요가 있다. 정책을 수립하고 시행하는 과정에서 경험한 바를 점검하고, 이를 통해 얻은 교훈을 바탕으로 앞으로 나아갈 방향을 다시 정립하는 과정(경험을 통한 학습과 환류)은 공공정책을 수립하고 시행하는 데 있어서 필수적인 요소이다. 이 글에서는 미세먼지 농도 기여율 연구 결과, 비상조치 경험, 기후변화 대응 과정의 교훈 등을 돌아보면서 목표관리 측면, 국제협력, 시민과 기업의 참여, 배출관리 부문, 노출저감 전략 등을 중심으로 앞으로의 미세먼지 대응 방향을 제안하고자 한다.

저소득가구의 에너지 소비실태 조사,분석

진상현 ( Sang Hyeon Jin ),박은철 ( Eun Cheol Park ),황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ) 서울시정개발연구원 2009 연구보고서 Vol.2009 No.32

The interest in energy poverty has been increasing worldwide because of the oil price skyrocketing in 2004. It is expected that energy welfare has four effects. These are welfare improvement for low-income households, energy savings, greenhouse gases reduction and job creation. In 2007, the central government of Korea declared the beginning of energy welfare with the theme "Energy Poverty Zero" by 2016 in cooperation with energy companies and public organizations. The current central government also suggests the theme "Five years plan for Green Growth" and it will establish the criteria for energy poverty and improve delivery system of energy welfare policy to solve the problem of energy poverty. While the interest in energy welfare has been increasing at home and abroad, the energy welfare policy of local government is not enough in Korea. Seoul, the capital of Korea, also announced the urgent counter measure to stabilize citizens` life as a measure of high oil prices. But the energy welfare programs of Seoul do not reflect the actual condition of energy consumption characteristics in low-income households and cannot guarantee the effectiveness of this policy. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the energy consumption characteristics in low-income households in order for Seoul to set up and propel the energy welfare policy. So This study tries to suggest the implication of energy welfare policy by researching the actual condition of energy consumption in low-income households. In other words, it reviews the current energy welfare programs and diagnoses the problems of these programs. After analyzing the statistics and the actual condition of low-income household, this study presents three policy implications. First, the energy poverty of Seoul can be defined as the households which have asset less than some amounts and pay energy cost in the ratio of 6.6~12.7% in comparison with disposable income. Second, the target group of energy welfare policy was estimated at 327 thousand households among total 3,453 thousand households by analyzing ``Seoul Low-income Welfare Needs Surveys`` data. If the high oil prices continue, it will be estimated at 385 thousand households. Third, Seoul energy welfare programs can be divided into three policy types. These are house heating and cooling project, home appliances efficiency improvement project and renewable energy supply project. This study also suggests the priority of these projects after assessing the feasibilities of them by using economic, social, environmental and local criteria.

서울시 수송부문 CO2 배출 변화요인 및 감축잠재량 분석

김경철 ( Gyeng Chul Kim ),황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ) 서울시정개발연구원 2008 연구보고서 Vol.2008 No.48

Emissions of carbon dioxide fell by 12% between 1990 and 2004 in Seoul. However, emissions from transport rose by 74% during the same period. Road transport currently accounts for 81% of total CO2 emissions from transport in Seoul. Thus, road transport is one of the key sectors in which policy change is needed to meet the reduction target for CO2 emissions set under Seoul Energy Declaration (2007). This study investigates what were the key driving forces for the trend of CO2 emissions from road transport between 1990 and 2006 in Seoul and projects future CO2 emissions based on various scenarios. This report breaks down determinants of changes in CO2 emissions from road transport by using LMDI decomposition analysis, According to the analysis result, driving distance per person was a dominant forces for the growth of emissions over the past 16 years. Among the various factors, increase of car usage and decrease of car occupancy rates mainly contribute to the growth of driving distances. Carbon intensity factors such as fuel efficiency and fuel substitution partly cancelled out the growth of CO2 emissions due to the growing driving distances. This study also produces and compares several scenarios under various assumptions regarding changing patterns in affluence and technology factors, According to the outcomes, to meet the reduction target for CO2 emissions set under Seoul Energy Declaration from road transport seems very difficult even under the most optimistic scenario, In order to reduce the negative effects of road transport regarding climate change, Seoul needs to create and use much more stronger policy measures.

신,재생에너지 의무할당제 도입 관련 서울시의 대응방안

진상현 ( Sang Hyeon Jin ),황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ) 서울시정개발연구원 2009 연구보고서 Vol.2009 No.49

Seoul pronounced that it will extend the rate of the new and renewable energy from 1.3% in 2007 to 10% by 2020 and to 20% by 2030 in the environment-friendly energy declaration on 2nd April 2007. The central government has also taken a strategy to extend it by using various supporting policies since 2004. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) is the most important policy among the new and renewable energy policies. FIT is the government`s policy that sets the prices of the new and renewable energies and the quantity is decided in the market. It was introduced in Korea in 2000. But the central government pronounced that it will substitute FIT with Renewable Energy Portfolio (RPS) in 2012, because the burden of finances has been increasing since 2002. On the other hand, the RPS is the government`s policy that sets the national quantity of new and renewable energies and the prices is decided in the market unlike FIT. So the goal of Seoul in 2030 must be influenced, because the RPS has the character that supports the economical energy preferentially. So this report will check the current state of the new and renewable energy policies in Korea. And also it will analyze the regional effectiveness of these policies in the respective energies and review these two policies theoretically and empirically. After then, it will suggest the response strategies of Seoul in the three dimensions; the internal response, the external response and the long term response. At first, externally, it is necessary for Seoul to present its views in the step of setting the policy and demand institutional improvement proactively. In other words, setting the rule of game in one`s favor is more important than winning the game. Concretely, it is necessary to improve the multipliers of environment-friendly urban energies, hydrogen and building integrated photovoltaic. Also it is necessary to demand parallel policy mix that keep FIT for small scale electricity suppliers. Internally, Seoul has to reform the current supply structure concentrated in waste energy which takes 43% of its total new and renewable energy, because the central government will reduce the incentive for waste energy under the 3rd new and renewable energy master plan. Moreover, Seoul has to set the plan for activation of environment-friendly urban energy and resolve the technical and institutional obstacles for its diffusion. At last, this report will suggest the fundamental paradigm shifting in new and renewable energy policy. It is necessary to replace the current ``electricity first and heat second`` policy with the new ``heat first and electricity second`` policy. The reason is why heat is useful to achieve the goal of new and renewable energy than electricity. And another reason is why there is low level energy more than high level energy which is able to produce electricity. Like this, shifting of policy paradigm with heat as the center will enhance the status and role of local government, because it knows the distribution of heat consumer and supplier more than the central government. So Seoul has to understand the spatial composition of local heat energy and mark it on the heat energy map. Namely, it has to set the master plan for heat energy in the long term.

Di(n-butyl) Phthalate가 태자와 신생자 SD Rat의 면역계 발생에 미치는 영향

정승태(Seung-Tae Chung),엄준호(Juno Ho Eom),박재현(Jae Hyun Park),정형진(Hyung-Jin Chung),황인창(In-Chang Hwang),김동섭(Dong Sup Kim),하광원(Kwang Won Ha),김형수(Hyung Soo Kim) 한국독성학회 2001 Toxicological Research Vol.17 No.2

Some of endocrine disruptors with sexual hormone-like effects have been increasingly reported to be immunotoxic in many species in recent several years. Phthalate esters have possible effects on the endocrine system. Prenatal exposure to di(n-butyl) phthalate (DBP) has been reported to impair the androgen-dependent development of the male reproductive tract in rat. Therefore, the immunomodulatory effect of DBP was investigated in the developing immune system of fetal and neonatal Sprague-Dawley rats. Timed-bred pregnant SD rats were given to the doses of 0, 250, 500, and 750 mg DBP/kgㆍbody weight/day by gavage once a day from gestational day (GD) 5 to 18. On GD19 or GD22/postnatal day one (PD1), the dams were euthanized, and the changes in organ weights and thymus phenotypes were examined their offsprings. At 750 mg DBP/kg ㆍb.w./day in maternal exposure group, GD19 fetuses showed decreases in body weight. The spleen/body weight ratios were reduced in GD19 fetuses from the dams exposed to 500 and 750 mg DBP/kgㆍb.w./day. There were no significant changes in thymus and spleen cellularities though these cellularities showed a tendency to decrease in a dose dependent way. In the DBPGD22/PDl offsprings, the body weights, the relative organ weights and the cellularities did not exhibit alteration. Additionally, the percentages of CD3+(CD4+CD8+, CD4+CD8-, CD4-CD8+, and CD4-CD8) and CD3-(CD4+CD8+, CD4+CD8-, CD4-CD8+, and CD4-CD8) thymocyte subsets were not changed in any DBP-treated group. The proliferative responses oj splenic T cells to Con A and B cells to LPS were decreased in all DBP-exposed GD22/PDl offsprings.

에너지분야 온실가스 인벤토리의 불확도에 관한 연구: Tier 1 에러전파방법을 이용한 추정

황인창 ( In Chang Hwang ),진상현 ( Sang Hyeon Jin ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2014 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.23 No.2

IPCC는 국가별 온실가스 배출량이 얼마나 확실한 값인가를 보여줄 수 있는 불확도를 함께 보고하도록 규정하고 있다. 그렇지만 한국 정부는 IPCC 기본값을 그대로 적용하고 있는 수준에 불과하며, 그나마도 결측된 값들이 있어서 전체적인 불확도를 산정하지 못한 채 항목별 불확도만을 나열하고 있을 뿐이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 국가 온실가스 배출량의 85.3%를 차지하는 에너지분야를 대상으로 Tier 1 수준의 에러전파방법을 이용해서 온실가스 인벤토리의 불확도를 추정하고 있다. 분석결과 국내 에너지분야 온실가스 배출량의 불확도는 3.4%였으며, 이는 핀란드와 유사한 수치인 것으로 밝혀졌다. 그렇지만 온실가스별로는 이산화탄소의 불확도가 2.7%에 불과했지만, 메탄은 116%, 아산화질소는 473%에 달할 정도로 차이가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 한국 정부가 에너지분야의 불확도를 낮추려면 이산화탄소 보다는 메탄과 아산화질소를 대상으로 활동도뿐만 아니라 배출계수의 개선이 필요하다는 정책적 함의가 제시될 수 있었다. 결론적으로는 IPCC 기본값 대신에 신뢰도 높은 한국 고유의 배출계수를 개발하는 작업이 필요함을 제안하고 있다. IPCC requires the national uncertainties which show how credible the emission of greenhouse gases is. But the Korean government did not submit the total uncertainties, only the detailed uncertainties by items. Also it uses the default values of IPCC including some missing values. This paper tries to estimate the total uncertainties of energy by categories, which accounts for 85.3% in national emission of greenhouse gases. Concretely, it uses Tier 1 method suggested by IPCC. As a result of the analysis, the uncertainties in energy category are 3.4% similar to Finland``s. But there was a big difference among greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide 2.7%, methane 116% and nitrous oxide 473%. So this paper suggests Korean government need to improve not only the activity but also the emission factor of data in order to reduce the national uncertainties in energy category.

지자체 교통부문 미세먼지 관리방안

황인창(In Chang Hwang),한진석(Jin-Seok Han) 서울연구원 2018 서울연구원 정책과제연구보고서 Vol.- No.-