농촌·도시간 인구 전이 이동자의 출산력에 미치는 영향분석

이번송 韓國人口學會 1981 한국인구학 Vol.4 No.1

서울시 사회복지관 단순평가모형 개발-합리적 보조금지급방안 연구-

이번송,김진욱,함건식 한국사회복지학회 1996 한국사회복지학 Vol.29 No.-

한국 경제위기의 원인과 대책

이번송 한국비교경제학회 1999 비교경제연구 Vol.7 No.1

도시생산성과 국제경쟁력 도시생산성 비교연구의 의의와 방법론

이번송 대한지방행정공제회 1994 도시문제 Vol.29 No.310

N/A

[연구논단] 토지이용규제와 수도권기업의 경쟁력

이번송 한국경제연구원 1998 규제연구 Vol.7 No.2

교통수요관리정책의 소득계층별 효과 분석

이번송,이의섭 대한교통학회 1996 大韓交通學會誌 Vol.14 No.1

It is very costly to construct transportation facilities such as roads, bridges, tunnels, and public parking lots mainly because land price is very high in metropolis like Seoul. Private car oweners use these facilities more extensively than public transportation users. However, the government does not impose proper charges for using these facilities. Such improper charge causes traffic congestion and then decreases social welfare in efficiency and equity. To solve problem, many traffic demand management policies are used. Traffic management policies which are currently used or under consideration by the City Government of Seoul include the imposition of road tolls, increase of parking fees in public parking lots, increase of gasoline taxes, expanded implementation of bus only lanes, and shippujae, which requires one(1) non-driving day for 10 calendar days. This study examined the impacts of such policies on the different income classes using simulation analysis. We found that the impacts of market-oriented policies such as the imposition of road tolls and the increase of gasoline taxes is regressive. Also, we found that while the low and middle income private car users have incentive have incentive for public transportation use, the high income private car users have no incentive for public transportation use in many cases.

한국(韓國)의 적정인구(適正人口) 증가율(增加率)에 관한 연구(硏究) - 인구부양비(人口扶養比)를 중심(中心)으로 -

이번송,안홍식 한국보건사회연구원 1990 한국보건사회연구원 연구보고서 Vol.1990 No.-

아파트 단지특성이 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향 분석

李繁松,鄭義澈,金龍顯 한국국제경제학회 2002 국제경제연구 Vol.8 No.2

본 논문에서는 특성감안가격함수(hedonic price function)기법을 통하여 서울시 아파트가격에 영향을 주는 요인들을 분석하였다. 2001년 4월 서울의 4,698개 표본을 통한 추정결과 몇가지 특성들에 관하여는 서구국가의 단독주택에 대한 연구들 및 우리나라의 아파트에 대한 실증분석들과 유사한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 주택가격은 규모가 클수록 증가하고, 지하철역으로부터 멀어질수록 하락하며, 한강 전망이 있는 곳의 주택이 그렇지 않은 주택보다 주택가격이 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 한편 아파트단지에 대한 일부 특성들도 유의적이었는데 단지별 평균 아파트 규모는 개별 아파트의 가격과 양(+)의 관계를 나타내고 있으며 주상복합아파트에 속하는 아파트의 가격은 주거전용으로 사용되는 아파트 가격보다 낮게 평가되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 주택가격은 아파트의 연령에 단조 감소함수로 나타나지는 않았다. 이 결과는 우리나라 아파트의 독특한 측면을 보여주고 있다. 아파트 건축밀도는 재건축 이후 높아지는 것이 일반적이므로 아파트 소유자들은 재건축으로부터 이득을 기대할 것이고, 따라서 미래의 자본이득에 관한 기대가 주택가격에 자본화(capitalization)되고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 이러한 자본이득의 가격효과는 재건축에 관한 조치가 실제 행해졌을 때 더욱 명백하게 나타나고 있는데, 분석 결과에 따르면 재건축추진위원회 또는 재건축조합이 결성되었거나, 지방정부로부터 조합이 승인된 아파트의 가격은 그렇지 않은 아파트보다 약 25%~30%의 높은 가격프리미엄이 있는 것으로 나타났다. Following the hedonic pricing methodology, this paper focused on different aspects of housing characteristics by considering multifamily housing, that Is, apartments. Our objectives were ⅰ) to confirm whether the stylized facts observed in single family housing in western countries are consistently applied to apartments in Korea, ⅱ) to examine whether different features of apartment complexes affect housing prices, and ⅲ) to further analyze the effects of various characteristics specific to Korean apartments. Our estimation results indicate that the impacts of some of characteristics are consistent with those found in studies that Investigate housing prices In the west. Several characteristics unique to apartment complexes had statistically significant effects. The average size of apartment units in a complex increases housing price, reflecting a within-complex positive externality, and the apartment in a complex for both residential and commercial use has a lower housing price, indicating a within-complex negative externality. The housing price is found to eventually increases as housing gets older. This result reveals some of particular aspects of the Korean market for apartments. Expectations on future capital gains are capitalized Into the housing price. This capital gains effect becomes more obvious when some actions for redevelopment were actually undertaken. Our results reveal a very strong and positive Impact of this variable.

서울의 교통혼잡의 경제적 비용과 해결방안

이번송 사회과학원 1995 계간 사상 Vol.27 No.-

한국(韓國)의 급격(急激)한 이촌향도형(離村向都型) 인구이동(人口移動)과 농촌경제(農村經濟)

이번송,Lee, Bun-song 한국개발연구원 1990 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.12 No.3

이촌향도형(離村向都型) 인구이동(人口移動) 농촌지역경제(農村地域經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관해 두가지 상반(相反)된 견해(見解)가 있다. 신고전학파적(新古典學派的) 낙관론(樂觀論) 따르면 이농현상(離農現象)은 농촌지역(農村地域)의 소득(所得)이나 후생수준(厚生水準)을 저해(沮害)하지 않는다고 보는 반면 Lipton (1980)은 그 반대의 견해(見解)를 취하고 있다. 본고(本稿)에서는 비교역재(非交易財)(nontraded goods)에 대한 국제무역이론(國濟貿易理論)과 화란병(和蘭病)(Dutch Disease)의 이론(理論)을 원용하여 농촌(農村)에서 도시(都市)로의 인구이동모형을 개발했다. 이 모형은 이농인구이동(離農人口移動)이 농촌지역(農村地域)의 소득(所得)과 후생수준(厚生水準)을 저해(沮害)한다는 점에서는 Lipton의 견해(見解)와 일치하나 소득(所得)을 감소(減少)시키는 요인들은 Lipton의 모형(模型)에서 지적(指摘)된 것들과는 다르다. 본고(本稿)는 이농현상(離農現象)이 농촌소득(農村所得)을 감소(減少)시키는 이유가 농업생산성(農業生産性)의 하락(下落) 때문이 아니라 농촌노동 및 소비인구의 격감으로 인한 농업부문(農業部門)의 이윤감소(利潤減少)와 농촌(農村) 서비스부문(部門)와 쇠퇴(衰退)때문이라고 주장한다. 1966, 1970, 1975, 1980 및 1985년의 한국인구(韓國人口)센서스 통계자료(統計資料)를 이용하여 주요가설(主要假說)들에 대해 실증분석(實證分析)을 한 결과 신고전학파(新古典學派)의 주장(主張)이나 Lipton의 견해(見解)보다 본(本) 연구모형(硏究模型)의 설명력(說明力)이 더 높은 것으로 밝혀졌다. Two opposing views prevail regarding the economic impact of rural out-migration on the rural areas of origin. The optimistic neoclassical view argues that rapid rural out-migration is not detrimental to the income and welfare of the rural areas of origin, whereas Lipton (1980) argues the opposite. We developed our own alternative model for rural to urban migration, appropriate for rapidly developing economies such as Korea's. This model, which adopts international trade theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease to rural to urban migration issues, argues that rural to urban migration is caused mainly by two factors: first, the unprofitability of farming, and second, the decrease in demand for rural nontraded goods and the increase in demand for urban nontraded goods. The unprofitability of farming is caused by the increase in rural wages, which is induced by increasing urban wages in booming urban manufacturing sectors, and by the fact that the cost increases in farming cannot be shifted to consumers, because farm prices are fixed worldwide and because the income demand elasticity for farm products is very low. The demand for nontraded goods decreases in rural and increases in urban areas because population density and income in urban areas increase sharply, while those in rural areas decrease sharply, due to rapid rural to urban migration. Given that the market structure for nontraded goods-namely, service sectors including educational and health facilities-is mostly in monopolistically competitive, and that the demand for nontraded goods comes only from local sources, the urban service sector enjoys economies of scale, and can thus offer services at cheaper prices and in greater variety, whereas the rural service sector cannot enjoy the advantages offered by scale economies. Our view concerning the economic impact of rural to urban migration on rural areas of origin agrees with Lipton's pessimistic view that rural out-migration is detrimental to the income and welfare of rural areas. However, our reasons for the reduction of rural income are different from those in Lipton's model. Lipton argued that rural income and welfare deteriorate mainly because of a shortage of human capital, younger workers and talent resulting from selective rural out-migration. Instead, we believe that rural income declines, first, because a rapid rural-urban migration creates a further shortage of farm labor supplies and increases rural wages, and thus reduces further the profitability of farming and, second, because a rapid rural-urban migration causes a further decline of the rural service sectors. Empirical tests of our major hypotheses using Korean census data from 1966, 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 support our own model much more than the neoclassical or Lipton's models. A kun (county) with a large out-migration had a smaller proportion of younger working aged people in the population, and a smaller proportion of highly educated workers. But the productivity of farm workers, measured in terms of fall crops (rice) purchased by the government per farmer or per hectare of irrigated land, did not decline despite the loss of these youths and of human capital. The kun having had a large out-migration had a larger proportion of the population in the farm sector and a smaller proportion in the service sector. The kun having had a large out-migration also had a lower income measured in terms of the proportion of households receiving welfare payments or the amount of provincial taxes paid per household. The lower incomes of these kuns might explain why the kuns that experienced a large out-migration had difficulty in mechanizing farming. Our policy suggestions based on the tests of the currently prevailing hypotheses are as follows: 1) The main cause of farming difficulties is not a lack of human capital, but the in­crease in production costs due to rural wage increases combined with depressed farm output prices. Therefore, a more effective way of