남한산성 소나무림의 19년간 (1993~2011년) 식생구조 변화와 관리방안

이경재 ( Kyong Jae Lee ),한봉호 ( Bong Ho Han ),이학기 ( Hak Gi Lee ),노태환 ( Tai Hwan Noh ) 한국환경생태학회 2012 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.26 No.4

본 연구는 2010년 세계문화유산 잠정목록에 등록된 국가사적 제57호 남한산성을 대상으로 과거 문헌자료와 현장조사를 통해 식생구조 변화를 밝히고 역사·문화적 가치가 높은 남한산성의 식생복원을 위한 관리방안을 수립하고자 실시하였다. 남한산성 식생의 비오톱 분석 결과 대상지 면적 2,611,823㎡중 참나무류림이 40.8%이었고, 천이 가능성이 높은 소나무림이 16.5%로 청량산 일원과 서문에서 북문 일원, 남문에서 청량산 사이의 산 능선에 분포하고 있었다. 천이 가능성이 낮은 소나무림은 4.7%로 남한산초등학교 뒤 산림에 주로 분포하고 있었고, 천이가 진행중인 소나무림은 2.9%, 도태중인 소나무림은 2.1%였다. 19년간 식생구조 변화 분석 결과 소나무림→소나무 및 참나무류 혼효림→참나 무류림→서어나무림으로 천이가 예측되었고, 시간이 경과함에 따라 참나무류의 세력이 확대되었다. 남한산성 소나무림의 식생 관리방안은 식생구조 특성을 고려하여 관리권역을 구분하였고, 관리권역은 소나무림 경관유지지역 553,508㎡, 소나무림 경관복원지역 114,293㎡, 적극적 관리지역 205,306㎡, 자연천이 유도지역 1,169,973㎡이었다. This study, targeting Namhan Mountain Fortress which was designated as a No. 57 national historic site and placed on the World Heritage Tentative List in 2010, was intended to identify the change of vegetation structures by reviewing past references, pictures, research data and additionally conducting a site survey. Also, it was designed to draw up measures for restoring vegetation suitable for historically and culturally valuable Namhan Mountain Fortress. According to the biotope mapping of study site, Quercus spp. forest distributed a greatest part of area with 40.8% of 2,611,823 . Pinus densiflora forest, highly likely to go through ecological succession, was dispersed in the whole region of Cheongryangsan, the area from West Gate to North Gate and the ranges between South Gate to Cheongryangsan with taking 16.5%. Pinus densiflora forest with a low probability of succession amounted to 4.7% and was dispersed mainly in the forest behind Namhansan elementary school. Pinus densiflora going on the ecological succession is distributed a portion of 2.9%. And the currently dying out Pinus densiflora forest amounted to 2.1%. As a result of analysis of the vegetation structure for 19 years, the succession from Pinus densiflora forest to Pinus densiflora and succession from Quercus spp. mixed forest to Quercus spp. forest to Carpinus laxiflora forest were predicted. Additionally, Quercus spp. expanded its dominance over time. According to the characteristics of each classified zone, the site was categorized into 553,508m² area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape maintenance, 114,293 area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape restoration, 205,306m² area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the disclimax, and 1,169,973m² area of Pinus densiflora forest area for inducing ecological succession.

단안 선택적 레이저섬유주성형술에서 안압 변동을 보정한 성공예측인자의 분석

이준석,이종은,서샘,이규원 대한안과학회 2018 대한안과학회지 Vol.59 No.12

Purpose: To investigate the efficacy, and identify predictors of success of selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) in open-angle glaucoma (OAG) patients after adjusting for intraocular pressure (IOP) changes in the untreated fellow eye. Methods: This retrospective chart review included 52 eyes of 52 OAG patients who underwent SLT in one eye and were followed- up for at least 1 year after the procedure. The IOP was measured before the treatment, at 1, 2, and 3 months posttreatment, and every 3 months thereafter. To account for the possible influence of IOP fluctuations on laser outcomes, post-laser IOP values of the treated eye of each patient were also analyzed, after adjusting for IOP changes in the untreated fellow eye. Success was defined as an IOP decrease ≥20% of the pretreatment IOP. The success rate was determined based on Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and factors predictive of success were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The mean pretreatment IOP was 23.17 ± 6.96 mmHg. The mean IOP reduction was 5.59 ± 4.78 mmHg (29.7%) and the success rate was 65.4% at 1 year. The adjusted mean IOP reduction was 4.70 ± 4.67 mmHg (23.9%) and the adjusted success rate was 53.9%. Pretreatment IOP was associated with SLT success; the higher the pretreatment IOP, the greater the post-laser IOP reduction (p = 0.025). Age and mean deviation index did not show a significant association with SLT success (p = 0.066 and p = 0.464, respectively). Conclusions: SLT is a safe and effective alternative method of IOP reduction in OAG patients. Herein, pretreatment IOP was the only factor significantly associated with SLT success. IOP fluctuations of the untreated eye should be considered for a better understanding of the impact of treatment. 목적: 선택적 레이저섬유주성형술(selective laser trabeculoplaty, SLT)을 시행 받은 개방각녹내장 환자에서 치료받지 않은 반대안의 안압을 보정하여 SLT의 안압하강 효과 및 성공예측인자를 분석하고자 하였다. 대상과 방법: 단안에 SLT를 시행 받고 1년 이상 관찰한 개방각녹내장 환자 52명 52안을 후향적으로 분석하였다. 시술 전, 시술 후 1, 2, 3개월, 이후 3개월마다 안압을 측정하였다. 시술 후 안압은 치료받지 않은 반대안의 안압변화량으로 보정하여 계산하였다. SLT의 성공은 시술 전 안압보다 20% 이상 감소한 경우로 정의하였다. Kaplan-Meier 생존분석을 이용하여 성공률을 산출하였고, 성공예측인자를 분석하였다. 결과: 시술 전 평균 안압은 23.17 ± 6.96 mmHg, 시술 후 1년째 평균 안압하강은 5.59 ± 4.78 mmHg (29.7%)였으며, 반대안 안압을 보정한 안압하강은 4.70 ± 4.67 mmHg (23.9%)였다. SLT의 성공률은 65.4%, 반대안 안압을 보정한 성공률은 53.9%였다. 시술 전 안압만이 SLT 성공과 유의한 상관관계를 보였고, 시술 전 안압이 높을수록 시술 후 안압하강이 크게 나타났다(p=0.025). 나이와 시야검사의 mean deviation은 SLT 성공과 유의한 상관관계가 없었다(p=0.066, p=0.464). 결론: 개방각녹내장 환자에서 SLT는 안전하고 효과적인 치료 방법이며, 시술 전 안압만이 SLT의 성공과 유의한 상관관계를 보였다. 정확한 치료 효과 분석을 위하여 반대안의 안압 변동을 고려하여야 하겠다.

Text Mining and Sentiment Analysis for Predicting Box Office Success

( Yoosin Kim ),( Mingon Kang ),( Seung Ryul Jeong ) 한국인터넷정보학회 2018 KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Syst Vol.12 No.8

After emerging online communications, text mining and sentiment analysis has been frequently applied into analyzing electronic word-of-mouth. This study aims to develop a domain-specific lexicon of sentiment analysis to predict box office success in Korea film market and validate the feasibility of the lexicon. Natural language processing, a machine learning algorithm, and a lexicon-based sentiment classification method are employed. To create a movie domain sentiment lexicon, 233,631 reviews of 147 movies with popularity ratings is collected by a XML crawling package in R program. We accomplished 81.69% accuracy in sentiment classification by the Korean sentiment dictionary including 706 negative words and 617 positive words. The result showed a stronger positive relationship with box office success and consumers’ sentiment as well as a significant positive effect in the linear regression for the predicting model. In addition, it reveals emotion in the user-generated content can be a more accurate clue to predict business success.

Cut-off Value for Body Mass Index in Predicting Surgical Success in Patients with Lumbar Spinal Canal Stenosis

Parisa Azimi,Taravat Yazdanian,Sohrab Shahzadi,Edward C. Benzel,Shirzad Azhari,Hossein Nayeb Aghaei,Ali Montazeri 대한척추외과학회 2018 Asian Spine Journal Vol.12 No.6

Study Design: Case-control. Purpose: To determine optimal cut-off value for body mass index (BMI) in predicting surgical success in patients with lumbar spinal canal stenosis (LSCS). Overview of Literature: BMI is an essential variable in the assessment of patients with LSCS. Methods: We conducted a prospective study with obese and non-obese LSCS surgical patients and analyzed data on age, sex, duration of symptoms, walking distance, morphologic grade of stenosis, BMI, postoperative complications, and functional disability. Obesity was defined as BMI of ≥30 kg/m2. Patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaire before surgery and 2 years after surgery. Surgical success was defined as ≥30% improvement from the baseline ODI score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to estimate the optimal cut-off values of BMI to predict surgical success. In addition, correlation was assessed between BMI and stenosis grade based on morphology as defined by Schizas and colleague in total, 189 patients were eligible to enter the study. Results: Mean age of patients was 61.5±9.6 years. Mean follow-up was 36±12 months. Most patients (88.4%) were classified with grades C (severe stenosis) and D (extreme stenosis). Post-surgical success was 85.7% at the 2-year follow-up. A weak correlation was observed between morphologic grade of stenosis and BMI. Rates of postoperative complications were similar between patients who were obese and those who were non-obese. Both cohorts had similar degree of improvement in the ODI at the 2-year followup. However, patients who were non-obese presented significantly higher surgical success than those who were obese. In ROC curve analysis, a cut-off value of ≤29.1 kg/m2 for BMI in patients with LSCS was suggestive of surgical success, with 81.1% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity (area under the curve, 0.857; 95% confidence interval, 0.788–0.927). Conclusion: This study showed that the BMI can be considered a parameter for predicting surgical success in patients with LSCS and can be useful in clinical practice.

Early-stage Project Outcome Prediction Considering Human Factors

Satoshi Urata,Takaaki Kawanaka,Shuichi Rokugawa 대한산업공학회 2022 Industrial Engineeering & Management Systems Vol.21 No.1

In the early stages of a project, project managers need a way to connect concrete actions to the factors that affect project success. This study aims to upgrade project management methodology by using machine learning technologies to predict project results. Using a new deep learning model called “deep tensor,” we predict project results at the time of completion—including quality, cost, and delivery time—by evaluating the project’s state in its earliest stage using various types of project knowledge assets. The prediction results suggest that the predictive accuracy of the deep tensor model is more accurate than that of the random forest or multiple regression model. The way to use this model to recommend specific advice by using the factors that most influenced the model’s predictions is also presented. This research provides a method for sharing difficult-to-share knowledge across projects and will be useful for early, tangible improvement measures in the project execution phase.

의약발명과 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성 - 미국에서의 논의를 중심으로 -

이진희 한국법학원 2022 저스티스 Vol.- No.193

One issue penetrating the inventive step assessment for pharmaceutical inventions is reasonable expectation of success. This is a matter of whether an invention is obvious simply because the prior art provides motivation to try even though the surrounding circumstances indicated that one would not have reasonably expected success. While the issue of reasonable expectation of success is relevant to other inventions as well, it is more heavily discussed in the field with lower predictability, with pharmaceutical inventions being at the top of the list. To avoid hindsight analysis, mere existence of some motivation in the prior art should not serve as the ground to automatically deny an inventive step. There should be a place for reasonable expectation of success in the inventive step analysis for pharmaceutical inventions. In domestic practice, reasonable expectation of success can play a role in determining whether the composition of the invention can be easily derived from the prior art if prior art references contain the motivation to try the claimed invention. Low predictability of the outcome can be reflected in determination of the level of difficulty to come up with the invention, i.e. whether it would be easy to try the particular composition of the invention and if there is any technical difficulty to do so. That is, if the expectation of success does not reach a reasonable level, it will not be easy to try even if the motivation was present in the prior art. Low expectation to obtain the final product also indicates technical difficulty in the attempt, meaning that composing the invention is difficult. If reasonable expectation of success is a concept that can be factored into the difficulty of composition assessment this way, it is not a foreign idea to Korean practice. It simply is not explicitly stated as such and may be often overlooked of its meaning. Reasonable expectation of success should no longer be left out in assessing the inventive step of pharmaceutical inventions. At the same time, the fact that the field in general is unpredictable should not discourage case-by-case analysis of whether it was reasonable to expect success in a particular case, jumping to the conclusion that the pharmaceutical invention does not lack an inventive step. The specific facts presented in each case of pharmaceutical invention should be dispositive of the issue. 의약발명의 진보성에 관한 특허 실무에서는 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성이라는 요소가 종종 언급되기도 한다. 이 요소는 선행기술에 해당 발명을 시도할 동기가 제시되어 있으나 그 발명의 구체적인 사정상 시도에 따른 성공 여부를 합리적으로 예측할 수 없는 경우에 진보성이 부정된다고 할 것인지의 측면에서 의미가 있으며, 상대적으로 미국과 유럽에서 활발하게 논의되는 개념이다. 또한 엄밀히 말하면 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성이라는 요소가 의약발명 분야의 진보성 판단 시에만 고려되는 것은 아니지만, 의약발명 분야로 대표되는 예측가능성이 떨어지는 기술분야에서 그 논의가 집중된다. 발명의 진보성에 대해 사후적 고찰을 피해야 한다는 점에서 선행기술에 단순히 그 발명을 시도할 동기가 제시되어 있다는 점만으로 기계적으로 진보성을 부정하는 입장은 마땅히 경계해야 한다. 따라서 기본적으로 우리 특허 실무상 의약발명에 관한 진보성 심리에도 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성이라는 개념을 염두에 둘 필요가 있다. 위 요소는 구성의 곤란성과 관련하여 선행기술에 그 발명을 시도할 동기가 있으면 선행기술로부터 해당 발명의 구성이 쉽게 도출될 수 있다고 평가할 것인지의 단계에서 작용할 수 있다. 결과에 대한 예측가능성이 떨어진다는 점은 구성의 곤란성을 검토하는 단계에서 쉽게 시도해 볼 수 있는지, 그 시도에 기술적 어려움이 없는지를 평가할 때 반영될 수 있다. 즉 성공에 대한 기대가능성이 합리적 수준에 이르지 못한다면, 선행기술에 그 발명을 시도할 동기가 제시되어 있어도 그 시도가 쉬운 것이라고 평가할 수 없고, 최종적인 결과물이 얻어지는 것에 대한 낮은 기대가능성은 시도 과정에서의 기술적 어려움으로도 평가될 수 있으며, 이에 따라 구성이 곤란하다는 결론에 이를 수 있다. 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성이 이와 같은 방식으로 구성의 곤란성 판단에서 작용할 수 있는 개념이라고 이해한다면, 위 개념이 그동안 우리 실무에서 고려되지 않았던 새로운 요소라기보다는 명시적으로 언급되지 않은 개념으로서 실제로 그 의미를 소홀히 하기 쉬운 요소였을 뿐이다. 향후 의약발명의 진보성 심리에서는 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가능성이 시사하는 바를 간과하지 않도록 유의할 필요가 있다. 그러나 다른 한편으로는, 발명이 속하는 기술분야가 예측가능성이 떨어지는 특징이 있다는 사실만으로 개별 발명에 대한 구체적인 검토도 없이 바로 성공에 대한 합리적 기대가 없다고 인정하고, 이로부터 다시 그 발명의 진보성이 부정되지 않는다는 결론에 이르는 것 역시 경계해야 하며, 의약발명에 관한 개별 사건에서 제시된 구체적 사실관계에 따라 그 판단은 달라져야 한다.

스타트업의 스케일업 성공 결정요인 이해에 관한 연구

김재용,최상민,송지훈 한국창업학회 2024 한국창업학회지 Vol.19 No.2

본 연구는 Crunchbase의 데이터를 이용해 국내 스타트업의 스케일업 성공에 영향을 미치는 결정요인 분석을 진행하였다. 이를 위해 투자를 받은 이력이 있는 3,750개의 국내 스타트업을 대상으로 머신러닝 기반 스케일업 성공예측 모델을 제안하고 이를 바탕으로 스케일업 성공 결정요인을 도출하였다. 총 14개의 서로 다른 머신러닝 알고리즘의 비교를 통해 최적의 모델을 선정 후, 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝을 통해 성능지표에 대한 최적화를 수행, 마지막으로 변수의 중요도를 측정하였다. 그 결과 총 17개의 변수 중 유사한 기업의 수, 총 투자자의 수, 기업이 보유한 특허 수, 펀딩 라운드 수 그리고 기업이 보유한 기술 스택 수가 중요 스케일업 성공 결정요인으로 확인되었다. 이는 성장 가능성이 큰 세부시장에서 활동하며 기술의 자립도와 다양성이 높은 기업일수록 스케일업 성공이 용이할 수 있음을 의미한다. 본 연구의 결과는 투자자의 투자 결정을 위한 도구로 활용될 수 있고, 스케일업 생태계 구축을 위한 정책적 제언을 수립하는 데 중요한 근거 자료를 제공할 수 있다. 나아가, 본 연구는 국내 스타트업 생태계에 대한 심층적인 이해를 제공하며, 이를 통해 향후 기업지원 정책 방향성 수립에도 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. This study analyzed the determinants of scale-up success of domestic startupsusing data from Crunchbase. For this purpose, a machine learning-based scale-upsuccess prediction model is proposed using data from 3,750 domestic startups,which has a history of receiving investment, and measured the contribution ofeach input variable on the success prediction. After selecting the optimal modelthrough a comparison of 14 different machine learning algorithms, we optimizedthe performance indicators through hyperparameter tuning, and then measuredthe importance of the variables. Out of the 17 variables, the number of similarcompanies, total number of investors, number of patents, number of fundingrounds, and number of technology stacks were identified as the importantscale-up success determinants. This suggests that firms operating in marketsegments with high growth potential and having high technology independenceand diversity might be more likely to succeed in scale-up. The results of thisstudy could be utilized as a tool for investors to make investment decisions andprovide important evidence for formulating policy recommendations to build aproper scale-up ecosystem. Furthermore, this study is also expected to contributeto the establishment of future business support policies based on an in-depthunderstanding of the domestic startup ecosystem.

연결어미 ‘-아서’의 의미 고찰

김준기(Kim Chun-gi) 한국어문학회 2011 語文學 Vol.0 No.112

When the connective ending ‘-aseo’ has the meaning of [succession] that shows the order of written words according to chronological order, its pattern is expressed as [termination succession], [simultaneity succession] and [reduplication succession]. In other words, when the ‘-aseo’ terminates the situation of earlier written words completely and changes into later written words, or the situation of earlier written words and later written words coincides, or earlier and later written words are overlapped, the semantic functions of ‘-aseo’ can be patternized as [termination succession], [simultaneity succession] and [reduplication succession], respectively. Meanwhile, the ‘-aseo’ has the meaning of [cause], which shows a definite and universal base, but it doesn?t always function as only [cause], and reveals semantic features of [cause]. In general, an inevitable connection of earlier and later written words is possible through the objective relationship between earlier written words and later written words. When the inevitability of casual relationship is objective and subjective, the ‘-aseo’ has semantic features of [cause] and [reason], respectively. In the meantime, later written words connected by ‘-nikka’ can’t predict the situation of earlier written words, while later written words connected by ‘-aseo’ can predict the result through earlier written words. Consequently, the ‘-aseo’ has semantic features of [prediction], as well as semantic functions of [intention].

Validation of prediction model for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy: a multicenter cohort study

( Junseok Jeon ),( Eun Jeong Ko ),( Hyejeong Park ),( Song In Baeg ),( Hyung Duk Kim ),( Ji-won Min ),( Eun Sil Koh ),( Kyungho Lee ),( Danbee Kang ),( Juhee Cho ),( Jung Eun Lee ),( Wooseong Huh ),( 대한신장학회 2024 Kidney Research and Clinical Practice Vol.43 No.4

Background: Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) has become the standard modality of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in critically ill patients. However, consensus is lacking regarding the criteria for discontinuing CRRT. Here we validated the usefulness of the prediction model for successful discontinuation of CRRT in a multicenter retrospective cohort. Methods: One temporal cohort and four external cohorts included 1,517 patients with acute kidney injury who underwent CRRT for >2 days from 2018 to 2020. The model was composed of four variables: urine output, blood urea nitrogen, serum potassium, and mean arterial pressure. Successful discontinuation of CRRT was defined as the absence of an RRT requirement for 7 days thereafter. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.76). The probabilities of successful discontinuation were approximately 17%, 35%, and 70% in the low-score, intermediate-score, and high-score groups, respectively. The model performance was good in four cohorts (AUROC, 0.73-0.75) but poor in one cohort (AUROC, 0.56). In one cohort with poor performance, attending physicians primarily controlled CRRT prescription and discontinuation, while in the other four cohorts, nephrologists determined all important steps in CRRT operation, including screening for CRRT discontinuation. Conclusion: The overall performance of our prediction model using four simple variables for successful discontinuation of CRRT was good, except for one cohort where nephrologists did not actively engage in CRRT operation. These results suggest the need for active engagement of nephrologists and protocolized management for CRRT discontinuation.

머신러닝 기반 외식업 프랜차이즈 가맹점 성패 예측

안예린,유성민,이현희,박민서 국제문화기술진흥원 2022 The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technolo Vol.8 No.4

In the restaurant industry, start-ups are active due to high demand from consumers and low entry barriers. However, the restaurant industry has a high closure rate, and in the case of franchises, there is a large deviation in sales within the same brand. Thus, research is needed to prevent the closure of food franchises. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting franchise sales and uses machine learning techniques to predict the success and failure of franchises. Various factors that affect franchise sales are extracted by using Point of Sale (PoS) data of food franchise and public data in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. And for more valid variable selection, multicollinearity is removed by using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Finally, classification models are used to predict the success and failure of food franchise stores. Through this method, we propose success and failure prediction model for food franchise stores with the accuracy of 0.92. 외식업은 소비자의 수요가 많고 진입장벽이 낮아 창업이 활발하게 일어난다. 하지만 외식업은 폐업률이 높고, 프랜차이즈의 경우 동일 브랜드 내에서도 매출 편차가 크게 나타난다. 따라서 외식업 프랜차이즈의 폐업을 방지하기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 프랜차이즈 가맹점 매출에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 살펴보고, 도출된 요인들에 머신러닝 기법을 활용하여 프랜차이즈의 성패를 예측하고자 한다. 강남구 프랜차이즈 매장의 PoS(Point of Sale) 데이터와 공공데이터를 활용하여 가맹점 매출에 영향을 미치는 여러 요인들을 추출하고, VIF(Variance Inflation Factor)를 활용하여 다중공산성을 제거하여 타당성 있는 변수 선택을 진행한 뒤, 머신러닝 기법 중 분류모델을 활용하여 프랜차이즈 매장의 성패 예측을 진행한다. 이를 통해 최고 정확도 0.92를 가진 프랜차이즈 성패 예측 모델을 제안한다.