생산국별 수입 밀의 국내시장 점유율 결정요인 분석

조덕래 진주산업대학교 1996 論文集 Vol.35 No.-

The objective of this study is to analyze the import demand behavior for wheat in Korea in order to provide some basic information to policy-makers and importers who are interested in the efficiency of import. In particular, this study focuses on the analysis of import demand by country under the assumption that wheat is different in quality by place of production. The analytic model used in this study to analyze import demand is the two stage estimation method. In the first stage, the total import demand functions are estimated for wheat. And the import demand functions of each country are estimated in the second stage. Major findings of this study are summarized as follows : First, the import price elasticity and the domestic production quantity elasticity of the total import demand for wheat are very low. But the domestic price elasticity and the income elasticity are relatively high. Second, the own price elasticity of American wheat is low, but cross price elasticities of import demand for other countries with respect to the American wheat price are very high. Therefore, taking notice of the price change of American wheat and diversifying importing countries are important to incease the efficiency of wheat import.

Revisiting Aggregate Import Demand Function for Korea

김용민(Yongmin Kim),권예경(Yekyung Kwon) 중앙대학교 한국전자무역연구소 2021 전자무역연구 Vol.19 No.4

연구목적: 본 연구의 목적은 2000년 분기별 거시경제자료를 바탕으로 한국의 장단기 수입총수요를 실증적으로 분석하고 국내총생산(GDP)의 주요 구성요소들에 대한 수입의 부분탄력성을 추정하는 데 있다논문구성/논리: 민간소비지출, 투자지출, 정부지출, 수출 및 수입가격의 시계열 지료를 대상으로 Johansen 다변량공적분 분석을 통하여 수입수요함수를 구성하고 있는 변수들 간의 장기적 인과관계를 파악하며, 벡터오차수정모형 추정을 통해 단기적인 인과관계를 분석한다. 결과: 다변량공적분과 벡터오차수정모형의 분석결과는 국내총생산(GDP)의 구성요소에 대한 총수입의 부분탄력성 간에는 유의한 차이가 있음을 보여주고 있다. 투자에 대한 지출, 수출 및 수입가격에 대한 총수입수요의 부분탄력성은 양(+)의 값으로 보고된 반면 민간부문 소비 및 정부지출의 변화에 ​​대해서는 음의 값으로 반응하는 것으로 나타나 민간 및 정부부문의 소비증가가 수입의 감소로 나타난다. 그러나 단기적인 영향분석을 위한 벡터오차수정모형은 한국의 수입수요가 이전 기간의 수입, 투자에 대한 지출, 수출 그리고 수입 가격의 변화에 ​​의해 단기적으로 영향을 받고 있음을 보여준다. 독창성/가치: 본 연구의 결과는 무역수지를 개선하고자 하는 국가의 정책 입안자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공한다. 특히 수입가격에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 환율정책은 장기적으로는 한국의 수입수요에 큰 영향을 미치나 단기적으로는 미미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 보고되고 있다. 민간 소비를 늘리기 위한 정책은 장기적으로 총수입을 감소시켜 한국의 무역수지를 더욱 개선하는 데 매우 중요한 정책이 될 수 있다. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to present an empirical examination of Korea’s short-run and long-run aggregate demand for the imports and demonstrate estimates of partial elasticities of imports with respect to different components of final expenditure based on quarterly economic data for the period 2000-2020. Composition/Logic: A Johansen multivariate cointegration is employed on the data of private consumption, expenditure on investment goods, government spending, exports and relative import prices. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests and cointegration procedure with Trace and Eigen–value tests are also applied for finding the existence of a cointegration, identifying the long-run relationships among variables in Korea’s import demand function. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to find short-run influences of components on the aggregate import demand. Findings: The results of both the multivariate cointegration procedure and the short-run error correction model suggest that the variables are all cointegrated and there exist significant differences among the long-run partial elasticities of imports with reference to different factors of final expenditure and relative import prices. Partial elasticities with respect to the expenditure on investment goods, exports and import prices are reported to be positive while imports seems to move negatively to changes in private consumption and government expenditure, indicating that an increase in private and government sector consumption could lead to a decrease in demand for imports in the long run. However, the VECM indicates that the imports are influenced by previous changes in imports, expenditure on investment goods, exports and import prices in the short run. Originality/Value: These findings can provide significant implications for policy-makers seeking to improve their country’s trade balances in the long run. In particular, exchange rate policies which have a direct impact on import prices are reported to have significant long-term impact on Korea’s import demand, but only moderate effect in the short term. Policies implemented with a view to increasing the private sector consumption could be of a crucial importance in decreasing aggregate imports in the long term, resulting in further improvement in Korea’s balance of trade.

An Empirical Analysis on Japanese Import Demand Function in Comparison with Korea’s Import Demand

윤일현(ll-Hyun Yoon),김용민(Yong-Min Kim) 한국무역연구원 2021 무역연구 Vol.17 No.4

Purpose - This study presents an empirical examination of Japan’s short-run and long-run aggregate demand for imports, compared with the study on Korea’s import, using quarterly economic data for the period 2000-2020 including aggregate imports, final consumption expenditure components, investment and relative price of imports. Design/Methodology/Approach - This paper has employed multivariate co-integration procedure and the short-run error correction model to find the existence of a cointegration and the relationship among variables in import demand function. Findings - This paper shows that the variables are all cointegrated and there exist significant differences with reference to different factors of final expenditure. Partial elasticities with respect to government expenditure, investment, exports and import prices are reported to be positive while imports seem to move negatively to changes in private consumption, in contrast to the case of Korea which shows that imports only move negatively with respect to investment. Export appears to indicate a relatively insignificant impact on Japan’s aggregate imports in the long run. However, an vector error correction model demonstrates that only exports have an influence on the imports in the short run while, in Korea, the current period changes in the demand for imports are related only to the previous period changes in relative price of imports. Research Implications - This paper provides significant implications for policy makers in a nation seeking to improve the country’s trade balances. Exchange rate policies in Japan appear to have significant long-term impact on Japan’s import demand, but no significant effect in the short term. Policies to increase the private sector consumption could be of a crucial importance in decreasing aggregate imports in the long term, resulting in further improvement in Japan’s balance of trade. In contrast to Japan, the exchange rate scheme has a short-term effect on Korea’s demand for imports but not a long-term impact on the country’s imports while investment component plays a key role in reducing imports in the long run, leading to enhancement in the Korea’s balance of trade.

선진국 수입수요가 우리나라 수출에 미치는 영향

최문정,김경근 한국은행 2019 經濟分析 Vol.25 No.1

본 연구에서는 선진국의 수입수요가 우리나라의 대선진국 수출에 미치는 영향이 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 어떻게 변화하였는지 살펴보았다. 교역상대국의 수입수요를 측정하기 위해 총수요 부문별(민간소비, 공공소비, 투자, 수출)로 상이한 직간접 수입집약도를 보정한 총수요 (Import Intensity-Adjusted Demand) 변수를 산출하여 사용하였다. G7국가의 수입수요가 우리나라의 대G7 수출에 미친 영향을 동태패널 모형으로 분석한 결과, 우리나라의 대G7 수출은 상대국의 수입수요에 대해 글로벌 금융위기까지는 탄력적이었던 반면 위기 이후에는 비탄력적으로 변한 것으로 나타났다. 수입수요를 세분화하여 민간소비, 공공소비, 투자 및 수출로 나누어 분석한 결과, 위기 기간 중 G7국가의 민간소비 감소가 우리나라의 대G7 수출을 유의하게 감소시켰으며, 위기 이후에는 공공소비 증가가 우리나라 수출을 유의하게 증가시킨 것으로 분석되었다. G7국가의 투자가 우리나라 수출을 증가시키는 영향은 위기 이후 약화된 반면 G7국가의 수출이 우리나라의 대G7 수출을 증가시키는 영향은 위기 전후 모두 유의하게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 향후 선진국의 내수경기 변화가 우리나라의 대선진국 수출에 미치는 영향이 예전에 비해 제한적일 수 있음을 시사하는 한편 보호무역주의 대두 및 세계교역량 둔화에 따른 선진국 수출감소 우려가 우리나라 수출에 부정적 영향을 미칠 가능성에 유의해야함을 시사한다. This paper investigates the effects on Korean exports of demand in developed economies, and how these effects have changed since the global financial crisis. As a measure of import demand, we use import intensity-adjusted demand to take into account heterogenous import intensities across components of aggregate demand. Our estimation of a dynamic panel regression model reveals that Korea’s exports to the G7 countries were elastic with respect to the import demand of these countries until the global financial crisis, but have shifted to become inelastic since. Furthermore, we separately estimate the effects of the different components of the G7 countries’ aggregate demand (private consumption, public consumption, investment and exports). The results show that the decrease in private consumption in the G7 countries during the crisis had a significant impact in causing the decline in Korea’s exports to them, but that the increase in their public consumption since the crisis has had a significant effect on driving increased Korean exports to them. The effects of the G7 countries’ exports on Korea’s exports to them remain positive and significant during both the pre- and post-crisis periods. The effects of the G7 countries’ investments on Korea’s exports are also positive and significant, but the positive effect has weakened since the crisis. Our findings suggest that the overall effect of changes in the G7 countries’ import demand on Korea’s exports to them has weakened compared to the pre-crisis period.

인천국제공항의 수입항공화물에 대한 수요의 결정요인과 탄력성 연구

이동수(Dong-Su Lee),박민영(Min-Young Park) 피터드러커 소사이어티 2021 창조와 혁신 Vol.14 No.2

COVID-19 발생 이후, 항공물류 또한, 새로운 환경과 도전적 변화에 직면하고 있다. 본 논문은 기존에 거의 연구되지 않았던, 국제수입항공화물의 수요 영향요인 실증 연구로서, 항공사들이 불안정한 수익성과 치열한 국제경쟁에서 지속가능한 경영에 창의적인 시사점을 제시하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다. 한국은 국내총생산(GDP)의 60% 수준이 국제무역에서 창출되고, 이중 항공화물의 가치는 35% 에 이른다. 운임은 무역원가에 포함되기 때문에, 무역의존도가 높은 한국에 있어서 국가경쟁력을 좌우하는 중요한 요소이다. 특히 항공운송의 특징인 편도성(one way traffic)을 고려할 때, 외국시장에서 수요와 운임이 결정되는 수입화물의 수요특성에 대한 심층적 연구는 반드시 필요한 분야로 보인다. 본 연구는 대다수 기존 연구와 달리 IATA CASS (Cargo Account Settlement System) 데이터로 실증연구를 하였으며 전 세계 28개 해외공항에서 인천공항에 도착하는 2012년부터 2019년 기간을 대상으로 하였다. 또한 운임은 총운임과 기본운임으로 이원화하고 시장공급량과 시장점유율 포함하는 새로운 변수로 기존 연구와 차별화하였다. 주요 영향변수는 운임, 운항횟수, GDP, 무역액, 시장점유율, 유가 및 더미변수로서 계절성, 국가, 노선, 연도를 선정하였다. 내생성 문제 해결을 위하여 수요함수와 공급함수를 동시에 추정하였고, 오차항간의 상관관계나 이분산성 우려를 해소하기 위하여 3단계 최소자승법으로 연구하였다. 연구결과에 따르면, 수요에 가장 큰 영향변수는 소득과 운임인 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 특정항공사는 소득증가에 따라서 수요가 오히려 감소하는 결과가 도출되었다. 공급함수에서는 시장수요가 증가하면 운임은 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 수요가 단기적으로 시장운임의 등락에 영향을 받는 것으로 보이나, 노선별로 상이하고 중장기적으로 시장정책, 시장경쟁, 화물종류, 여유공급 등 운임외적 변동요인에 더 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 동 연구는 항공사, 공항 및 정부 정책입안자 등 관계자들이 실제 수입항공화물 시장에서 수요영향요인 및 특성에 대한 이해를 제고하여, 급속히 변화하는 글로벌 물류환경에서 혁신적 동력을 확보하는 시사점을 제공한다. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, air logistics is also facing new environments and challenging changes. This paper aims to present creative implications for sustainable management in unstable profitability and fierce international competition by airlines as an empirical study on the factors influencing the demand of international imported air cargo at Incheon International Airport, which has not been studied before. In Korea, 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) is generated from international and the value of air cargo is 35%. Since freight charges are included in trade costs, it is an important factor in determining national competitiveness in Korea, which is highly dependent on trade. In particular, considering the one-way characteristic of air cargo transport, an in-depth study on the demand characteristics of imported air cargo in which demand and freight charges are determined in foreign markets seems to be a necessary field. Unlike most previous studies, this study conducted empirical research using IATA CASS (Cargo Account Settlement System) data, and was targeted for the period from 2012 to 2019, when arriving at Incheon Airport from 28 overseas airports around the world. In addition, Freight charges are divided into all-in charge and net charge, and differentiated from existing studies with new variables including market supply capacity and market share. Seasonality, country, route, and year were selected as major influencing variables as charges, number of flights, GDP, trade amount, market share, oil price, and dummy variables. To solve the endogenous problem, both the demand function and the supply function were estimated at the same time, and a three-stage least squares method was used to solve the correlation between error terms and the concern of heteroscedasticity. According to the research results, it was found that income and freight charges were the biggest influencing variables on demand. However, demand for certain airlines decreased as income increased. In the supply function, it was found that when market demand increased, freight charges decreased. It seems that demand is affected by fluctuations in market charges in the short term, but it is analyzed that it is different for each route and is more affected by factors other than freight charges such as price policy, market competition, cargo type, and spare supply in the mid to long term. This study provides implications for people concerned, such as airlines, airports, and government policy makers, to improve their understanding of the factors and characteristics influencing demand in the actual imported air cargo market, thereby securing innovative engines in a rapidly changing global logistics environment.

AHP 분석을 활용한 수입 자동차 리콜부품의 수요 예측 요인에 관한 연구

정상천(Jung, Sang Chun),김승철(Kim, Seoung Chul),이태원(Lee, Tae Won) 글로벌경영학회 2020 글로벌경영학회지 Vol.17 No.4

본 연구는 국내 자동차 리콜의 부품 수요 예측을 위하여 고려해야 할 요인들에 대해서 그 중요도 분석을 수행하고 있다. 리콜 부품 수요는 리콜의 타입에 따라서 수요 패턴이 달라질 가능성이 높다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 리콜 타입을 분류하는 기준으로서 리콜 관련 요인들의 종류와 그 중요도를 분석하고자 하였다. 자동차 부품 수요 예측을 위한 요인들은 선행 연구 검토와 델파이 조사를 통한 업계 전문가들의 의견을 반영하여 대상 차종의 특성, 리콜 관련 규모, 리콜의 발생 원인, 외부 환경 요인 등 4개의 유형으로 분류하였다. 이러한 요인들의 유형 분류와 도출을 위하여 본 연구에서는 델파이 연구 방법을 수행하였고 추출된 리콜 수요 결정 요인들의 상대적 중요도 분석을 위하여 AHP를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 수행된 AHP 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 대분류의 속성 중요도 검증 결과 리콜 발생 원인이 리콜 수요 예측에 가장 중요한 것으로 나타났고, 그 다음은 리콜 관련 규모, 외부 환경 요인, 대상 차종특성 등의 순으로 나타났다. 중분류 속성 항목들에 대한 분석 결과를 살펴보면 리콜 발생 원인중 3개 항목이 1~3위의 순위를 보여주고 있다. 치명성은 전체 중분류 항목들 중에서 가장 중요한 요인 것으로 나타났다. 외부 환경 요인중 정부의 리콜 관련 정책강도를 제외하고는 대상 차량의 판매가격과 함께 전반적으로 상대적 중요도가 모두 낮은 것으로 나타나 리콜 수요를 결정하는 요인으로서 중요도가 낮은 것으로 판단된다. 다음은 딜러사 와 비딜러 두 집단 간 상대적 중요도의 차이를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 딜러사와 비딜러의 경우 모두 전체 결과와 마찬가지로 리콜 발생 원인의 상대적 중요도가 가장 높은 것으로 나타났고 대상 차종 특성이 가장 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 두 집단에 대한 분석 결과에서는 리콜관련 규모의 가중치가 상이한 것으로 나타났으며 그 이유는 두 집단간 업무 특성에 기인한 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구 결과로서 자동차 리콜 수요를 결정하는 요인들은 리콜의 주요 원인, 리콜 차종의 주력 차종 여부, 리콜 대상 수량, 리콜 유형(자발적 리콜/강제적 리콜), 경쟁사 리콜 여부, 기간별 리콜율, 경기 상황 등과 같은 요인들인 것으로 밝혀졌다. 이러한 요인들은 리콜의 타입 별 부품 수요 예측 모형을 추정하는 데 중요한 정보를 제공하게 될 것이다. 본 연구에서 도출된 리콜 수요 요인들을 토대로 다양한 리콜 타입을 분류하고 각 타입 별 부품 수요의 패턴을 추정할 경우 좀 더 정교한 리콜 부품 수요 예측 모형을 추정할 수 있을 것이다. This study analyzes the priority among factors to consider in predicting the demand for parts for automobile recalls in Korea. The pattern of demand for recall parts depends on the type of recalls. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the various factors behind recall as the basis of classification of recall types, and their relative priority. Researchers reviewed the prior study and used the Delphi method to seek industry experts’ opinions, and classified the factors for predicting demand for automobile parts into four main categories: properties of target vehicle models, size of recalls, cause of recalls, and external factors. We used the Delphi technique to identify the categories of factors, and applied AHP to analyze the relative priorities of identified factors. The process and the result of the AHP for this study are as follows: among the four main categories, the cause of recalls was found the most important, followed by the size of recalls, external factors, and properties of target vehicle models. Analysis of sub-categories showed the three items under the main category “cause of recalls” ranked the 1st,2nd, and 3rd in terms of importance, on the list of all factors. Fatality is found to be the most critical factor among all sub-category items. Except for the strength of the government’s recall policy, external factors are found less important, along with the sales price of target vehicles, in determining recall demand. Different perception of priorities between dealers and non-dealers was also analyzed. The analysis showed that both dealers and non-dealers find the cause of recalls as the most important, and properties of target models as the least important, which is in line with the overall survey result. However, the two groups apply different weights to the size of recalls, probably because of the difference in what they do. This study concluded that the determinants of recall demand include major reasons for recall, whether the recalled vehicle is a flagship model, the number of recall vehicles, type of recall (voluntary or mandatory), whether competitors are doing a recall, the rate of recall by period, and economic situation. These factors will provide important information on estimating the prediction model for part demand by type of recalls. If recall types are classified and the demand pattern per type is estimated based on the various factors identified through this research, a more accurate model of recall part demand will become possible.

Estimating Import Demand Function for the United States

Il-Hyun Yoon,Yong-Min Kim 강원대학교 경영경제연구소 2019 Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Vol.10 No.2

This paper aims to empirically examine the short-run and long-run aggregate demand for the US imports using quarterly economic data for the period 2000-2018 including aggregate imports, final expenditure components, gross fixed capital formation and relative price of imports. According to the results of both multivariate co-integration analysis and error correction model, the above variables are all cointegrated and significant differences are found to exist among the long-run partial elasticities of imports as regards different macro components of final expenditure. Partial elasticities with respect to government expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, exports and relative price of import are found to be positive while imports seems to respond negatively to changes in private consumption, implying that an increase in private consumption could result in a significant reduction in demand for imports in the long run. With regard to the relative import prices, the results appear to indicate a relatively insignificant influence on the aggregate imports in the US in the long run. However, an error correction model designed for predicting the short-term variability shows that only exports have an impact on the imports in the short run.

IPA 기법을 활용한 신규간호사 핵심역량 술기 교육프로그램에 대한 인식 및 요구도 분석

최형주,김미희,임지향 학습자중심교과교육학회 2023 학습자중심교과교육연구 Vol.23 No.6

Objectives This study was to analyze new nurses and preceptors' awareness of new nurses' core competency skills education program, and the degree of demand through the importance, satisfaction, and performance of each target. Methods A paired-sample t-test was conducted for each subject's factors and items through data collected through questionnaires to find out the importance, satisfaction, and performance of new nurses and preceptors, who are research subjects for the new nurses' core competency skills education program. Using the IPA technique, it was schematized as an IPA Matrix, and the distribution status by factor and item of each subject was analyzed. Results 1. Results of analysis of importance and satisfaction of new nurses' core competency skills education program. As a result of difference analysis on importance and satisfaction of 6 factors, as a result of difference analysis on importance and satisfaction by 3 factors and 34 items, 19 items showed statistically significant differences. 2. Results of IPA analysis of new nurses' core competency skills education program. In the area of continuous maintenance, the professionalism of the instructor was included among the six factors, and in the area of intensive improvement and management, the educational program and educational environment were included among the six factors. 3. Results of analysis of the importance and performance of the preceptor's nursing job. As a result of analyzing the difference in importance and performance of 16 factors of nursing job, 14 factors showed statistically significant differences, and in most factors, the importance was higher than the performance. There was a statistically significant difference in importance and performance in 38 out of 51 nursing job items, and most of ‘performance’, which showed high importance, showed a difference. 4. Results of the IPA analysis on the nursing job of the preceptor. Among the 16 factors, assessment, performance, communication, and cooperation were included in the continuous maintenance area, and no factors were applicable in the intensive improvement and management area. Four items of performance factors were included in the second quadrant, which means that the actual performance falls short of the job that nurses consider important. Conclusions Based on the analysis results of this study, the difference in education satisfaction of core competency skills recognized as important by new nurses and the causes of differences in importance and performance according to nursing duties among preceptors were identified, and these were identified in the education program for new nurses. By applying it, new nurses will prepare the foundation for fully practicing the core competency of nurses.

부분정보 하 군 재고관리 모델의 효과적 주문량 조정 알고리즘 연구

지원찬 ( Wonchan Ji ),문성암 ( Seongam Moon ) 한국로지스틱스학회 2018 로지스틱스연구 Vol.26 No.2

본 논문은 군의 수리부속 재고관리 모델에서 주문량 조정 알고리즘(adjustment algorithm)에 대해 시스템 다이나믹스 관점에서 연구하였다. 특히 의사결정 매커니즘이라 할 수 있는 피드백 관계에 주목하였다. 군 재고관리 의사결정에 직접적으로 영향을 주는 요소 중 하나로 수요예측정확도가 있다. 관련 훈령에 의거 75% 수준의 수요예측정확도 목표가 설정되어 있으며, 이에 따라 품목관리관의 소요관리 매커니즘에는 예측수요(사전 주문량)와 실수요의 일치를 위한 통제행위가 반영되어 있다. 이러한 정확도 기반의 재고관리 접근은 높은 재고고갈 위험에 직면할 수 있다. 이는 작전지원의 효과성을 보장하기 위해 관리대상의 속성이나 중요도를 고려하는 재고관리 방식으로 보완할 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 수요예측정확도 향상 피드백 구조와 재고중요도 반영 피드백 구조를 비교분석한다. 두 가지 모델은 부분정보라는 상황에서 시뮬레이션되었다. 축적된 자료가 많지 않아 수요의 분포를 가늠하기 힘든 상황으로 자료 수가 30개 이하인 경우에 한정하였다. 이는 신규 도입된 특정 장비에 대한 군 수리부속 재고관리의 상황에 보다 근접하기 위한 설정이다. 부분정보 하에서 의사결정자는 범위접근형(range approach)이다. 또 다양한 수요를 가정하였다. 즉 일정한 범위에서 평탄한 레벨수요, 추세가 반영된 수요, 계절지수가 반영된 수요의 3가지 수요상황에 대해 시뮬레이션하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 정확도 기반유형보다 중요도 기반 유형이 군의 수리부속 재고관리에 보다 적합한 것으로 나타났다. In this paper, we have studied the adjustment algorithm of the inventory management model of the military from the viewpoint of system dynamics. In particular, we focused on the feedback relationship, which can be called the decision-making mechanism. One of the factors directly affecting the military inventory management decision is demand forecast accuracy. According to the relevant directive, the demand forecast accuracy level is set at 75% level. Therefore, the item management mechanism of the item manager reflects the control action for the prediction demand(pre-order quantity) and actual demand. This accuracy-based inventory management approach can face high inventory depletion risks. This can be complemented by an inventory management approach that takes into account the nature and importance of the managed objects to ensure the effectiveness of operational support. This study compares and analyzes the demand feedback accuracy improvement feedback structure and inventory importance feedback reflecting structure. Both models were simulated in the context of partial information. This is limited to cases where there is not enough data to accumulate data and the demand for observations is less than 30 on the assumption that demand dispersion is difficult to determine. This is a setting that is closer to the situation of military inventory management for the newly introduced specific equipment. Under partial information, the decision maker is a range approach. We also assumed various demands. They were simulated for three levels of demand: a flat level demand, a demand reflecting trend, and a demand reflecting seasonality. The simulation results show that importance-based feedback structure is better suited for managing military repair parts inventory than accuracy-based approach.

Examining the Effect of Corn Price Risk on Import Source Diversification

서동희 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 농촌경제 Vol.42 No.S

This study examines how South Korea diversifies corn import sources with a focus on price and risk effects. A risk-augmented almost ideal demand system is employed to investigate the extent to which import demand system responds to a change in price levels and volatilities. The estimation results indicate that the total expenditure for corn imports is more likely to depend on diverse country sources rather than the US, and the import demand is flexible in adjusting the import demand in response to corn price changes. A substitutable relationship exists between US and Brazilian corn, which is likely to alleviate the potential pressures of rising corn prices on the expenditure for corn imports. Furthermore, the estimation results highlight that the total risk from volatile corn prices induces a reduction in corn imported from the US but a rise from the rest of the world. The results are more attributable to the direct effect induced by a change in risk preferences rather than the indirect effect caused by a change in effective prices due to a change in price volatilities.