신약 진입에 의한 미충족의료 해소가 약제비 변화에 미치는 영향

황소정,이태진 한국보건경제정책학회 2023 보건경제와 정책연구 Vol.29 No.2

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the medical unmet needs satisfaction on pharmaceutical expenditures by their type; first satisfaction, satisfaction for treatment failure; satisfaction for selective patients. We analyze the impact of unmet medical needs satisfaction by new drug entry on drug expenditures, treatment substitution and expansion effect considering the differentiation degree of drug classes and patients' group for public concern diseases, rare and intractable diseases, and diseases with new drug entry between 2008 and 2021. And growth of drug expenditures is decomposed into 3 parts; cost, patients' number, drug mix. The result indicates that first satisfaction causes cost to increase by 88.0%, patients' number to increase by 8.0%, drug mix to decrease by 57.0% and overall drug expenditures to increase by 39.0%, (+)31.0% substitution effect, (+)8.0% expansion effect. Satisfaction for treatment failure neither gives rise to significant expansion effects nor causes significant change in drug expenditures, substitution effect due to cost increase being offset by the decrease of drug mix. Satisfaction for selective patients causes drug expenditures to increase by 9.5%, (+)5.4% substitution effect and the significance of increase in cost, patients' number and decrease in drug mix is lost when considering differentiation of drugs' classes. Classes differentiation itself results in 76.9% increase in cost and 81.3% decrease in drug mix. The finding of this study implies the degree of increase in drug expenditures, substitution and expansion effect of the first satisfaction is the largest. And it suggests the impact on the decomposed part of pharmaceutical expenditures and the increase in drug expenditures due to the substitution and expansion effect can be mitigated through active differentiation of drug classes in relation to first satisfaction and satisfaction for selective patients.

소비자사전지식과 유인대안의 위치가 유인효과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

손용석(Yong Seok Sohn),권한나(Han Na Kwon) 한국마케팅학회 2010 마케팅연구 Vol.25 No.3

본 연구는 소비자들이 제품에 대한 속성 및 기술에 대한 제품지식의 관심이 높아짐에 따라 소비자의 제품 지식수준을 분류하여 유인효과를 활용하기 위해 유인대안의 가장 적합한 위치를 찾아내는 데에 초점을 두고 있다. 소비자의 사전지식 정도와 유인대안의 위치에 따른 유인효과분석을 실시한 결과, 중간 정도의 지식을 가진 소비자에게 유인효과는 가장 효과적인 것으로 증명되었고, LA, RR 그리고 LR의 유인대안의 위치에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 반면에, 사전 지식이 높은 소비자는 유인대안이 RA와 RR의 위치에 있을 때 영향을 받고, 사전 지식이 낮은 소비자는 유인대안이 LA의 위치에 있을 때 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 위 논문은 실증분석의 결과들이 보고되고 논의된다. We study the consumer judgement and choice under uncertainty such that consumers with limited knowledge face to choose their most preferred product among a set of given alternatives, specially when a decoy alternative, asymmetrically dominated or relatively inferior, is added to the set. We hypothesize that there would be positions of the decoy alternative fit to better attract consumers according to their prior knowledge levels on the product. That is, the attraction effect interacts with consumers` prior knowledge and various positions of the decoy alternative. We derived theoretical reasons of the attraction effect occurred in various positions of a decoy alternative. The attraction effect occurs at LA(Left Asymmetrical) and RA(Right Asymmetrical) due to the range and frequency effect, and it also occurs at RR(Right Relative) due to the compromise effect within the set. The attraction effect rather decreases at LR(Left Relative) in an opposite direction due to the substitution effect. We then attempted to provide proper justifications upon the reasons by segmenting the market into low-knowledge, moderate-knowledge and high-knowledge consumers. Consumers with low knowledge were found to see a brand via the attribute easy to evaluate like the price, and could be attracted with the addition of a decoy alternative at LA. On the other hand, consumers with high knowledge would be able to evaluate on quality attributes, and were supposed to be attracted with the addition of a decoy alternative at RA or possibly at RR where the quality is lower and where the price is same or a little higher than those of a target alternative, respectively. We think that consumer with high-knowledge were allowed to reach at the choice decision with the integrated evaluation on the price and quality attribute by the addition of a decoy alternative (Wedell 1993). Finally since consumers with moderate knowledge are yet to have thorough product category knowledge but may feel somewhat knowledgable, they are supposed to be involved in the product knowledge. Accordingly, the attraction effect appeared at LA, RR and LR, while it turned out to be strongest for consumers with moderate knowledge (Malaviya and Sivakumar 1998). Based upon the research performed, we could suggest promising positions of a decoy alternative to draw the attraction effect toward the target alternative, and derive several boundary conditions of the effect specially with respect to the levels of consumers` product knowledge. We also suggest possible applications of the attraction effect regarding new product launch, positioning strategy over the product life cycle, price cut, sales promotion and so on. Finally, the experimental design and its results are reported. Some possible avenues for the relevant behavioral decision along with the limitations of this study are also discussed.

정보통신기술(ICT) 자본재가 여성 고용변화에 미친 영향

정재현 ( Chung Jae-hyun ) 한국여성경제학회 2021 여성경제연구 Vol.17 No.4

1990년대 이후 정보통신기술은 대중들에게 대표적인 신기술로 인식되었다. 여기서는 신기술의 대표인 정보통신기술이 여성 고용에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 신기술을 생산과정에 도입하거나 각 산업에서 사용하기 위해서는 그 기술을 체화한 자본재의 가격이나 사용자 비용이 충분히 하락해야 한다. 다른 생산요소에 비해 그 자본재 가격이 충분히 하락하면 생산요소 중 하나인 노동을 대체하는 효과가 나타난다. 다른 한편 자본재 가격 하락으로 비용이 감소하여 생산가격이 하락하거나 기업의 이윤 증가로 이어진다. 가격 하락과 이윤 증가는 최종수요를 증가시켜 생산과 고용을 늘리는 규모효과로 이어질 수 있다. 이 연구는 대체효과와 규모효과를 고려하여 1990년 이후 산업별로 정보통신기술 자본재가 여성 고용에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 정보통신기술 자본재의 물가지수는 1990년에 비해 2017년에 1/5 수준으로 하락하여 정보통신기술 자본재 확산의 기반을 만들었다. 이 시기에 정보통신기술 자본재의 사용자 비용이 1% 감소할 때 여성 취업자는 0.37% 증가하였다. 이런 여성취업자 변화에서 대체효과는 1998년에서 2008년 사이에 유의한 양의 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 산업별로 보면 제조업, 전기·가스 및 수도사업, 건설업, 정보통신업, 금융 및 보험업 그리고 공공행정 및 국방은 유의한 양의 대체효과를 확인하였다. 그러나 여성 취업자 변화에서 규모효과는 유의한 영향을 확인할 수 없었다. 산업별로 보면 보건 및 사회복지업에서만 가격변화에 따른 유의한 양의 규모효과만 확인할 수 있었다. Since the 1990s, ICT(information communication technology) has been recognized as a representative new technology by the public. This study analyzed the effects of ICT on women's employment. In order to introduce a new technology into the production process or use it in each industry, the price of capital goods or user costs that embed the technology must be sufficiently reduced. If the price of capital goods falls sufficiently compared to other factors of production, the capital goods must replace labor, as one of the factors of production. On the other hand, lower capital goods prices reduce costs, leading to lower prices or higher corporate profits. Falling prices and increasing profits can lead to scale effects that increase production and employment by increasing final demand. This study analyzed the effects of ICT capital goods on women’s employment by industry after 1990, taking into account the substitution effect and scale effect. The price index of ICT capital goods fell to 1/5 in 2017 compared to 1990, laying the foundation for the spread of ICT capital goods. When the user cost of ICT capital goods decreased by 1%, the women’s employment increased by 0.37%. It was analyzed that the substitution effect in this change of women’s employment had a significant positive effect between 1998 and 2008. By industry, a significant amount of substitution effect was confirmed for Manufacturing, Electricity, gas and water supply, Construction, Information and communication, Financial and insurance activities, and Public administration and defense. However, the scale effect could not be found to have a significant effect on the change of women’s employment. By industry, only Human health and social work activities were able to confirm only a significant scale effects due to price changes.

The Effects of Basic Income on Labour Supply

이건민 한국사회보장학회 2018 사회보장연구 Vol.34 No.1

This study analyses the effects of basic income on labour supply using the neoclassical model of labour-leisure choice. In addition, we consider various costs (e.g. transaction cost, opportunity cost) and constraints (e.g. liquidity constraint, care constraint) as well as a minimum level of consumption. The main results are as follows. First, it is expected that the transition from conditional social security (CSS) to full basic income (FBI) will certainly increase the labour supply of existing public assistance recipients. Second, the labour supply effects of the transition in income groups at break-even points would be indeterminate. The labour supply effects depend on the relative size between basic income payments and the tax amounts of non-labour income for basic income payments. Spreading effects, i.e. reducing excessive overworking hours and/or increasing working hours which are now too short, can be expected among these groups. The total effects would be almost zero or slightly positive. Third, it is predicted that the labour supply effects of the above-mentioned transformation in the high-income bracket will also be inconclusive in theory due to the reliance on the relative magnitude between income and substitution effects. In this regard, we highlight that basic income can operate mechanisms to share and mitigate possible risks arising from either scenario. Examining the effects, we find extra advantages of FBI over CSS. The size of the opportunity set in groups below the break-even income level would mostly expand. In particular, existing social assistance recipients’ opportunity sets can expand, and their living standards would rise considerably with a high probability. Although the opportunity set for those in the high-income bracket can decrease slightly or substantially, the above-mentioned expected effects and benefits would considerably exceed any losses for those in the high-income class.

공공부문 R&D 의 민간부문 R&D 투자에 대한 영향 : Schumpeterian 모형을 이용한 이론적 분석 A Theoretical Approach in a Schumpeterian Model of Endogenous Innovation

金相春,金榮載 한국국제경제학회 2002 국제경제연구 Vol.8 No.2

공공부문 연구개발은 민간부문 연구개발과 보완적인가 혹은 대체적인가? 본 고는 내생적 기술혁신모형에 기초한 새로운 모형을 도입하여 이 문제를 이론적으로 고찰한다. 먼저, 공공부문 연구개발의 민간부문 연구개발투자에의 영향은 세 가지의 중요한 메커미즘, 즉, 지식 파급효과, 기술가치 파괴효과, 자원 긴축효과 등을 통해 나타나며, 이 중 지식 파급효과는 민간부문 연구개발투자를 증가시키는 반면에 기술가치 파괴효과 및 자원 긴축효과는 민간부문 연구개발투자를 감소시키는 역할을 한다. 이러한 다양한 메커니즘으로 인해 민간부문 연구 개발투자에 대한 공공부문 연구개발의 효과는 국가의 고유 특성에 따라 다양하게 나타난다. 특히, 연구개발에 집중적으로 이용 가능한 자원이 풍부한 반면에 상대적으로 연구개발에 후진적이며 비 경쟁적 시장구조를 가진 국가의 경우에는 민간부문 연구개발투자는 공공부문 연구개발에 따라 증가하나, 반대의 특징을 가진 국가에서는 민간부문 연구개발투자는 공공부문 연구개발에 따라 감소한다. Is public R&D a complement or a substitute for private R&D? This paper revisits this Issue in the recent dynamic general equilibrium model of endogenous innovation. Three main channels through which public R&D affects private R&D spending are identified to be a knowledge spillover effect, a technology value destruction effect and a resource contraction effect, and the first one is found to have positive effect but the other two to have negative effect. Due to these conflicting effects, the net effect is ambiguous, but mainly depends on the underlying characteristics of country, In particular, in country with larger supply of factors intensively used for R&D but relatively laggard ability in R&D activity and less competitive market structure, public R&D tends to affect private R&D spending positively. Conclusively, we suggest R&D policy boosting public R&D should be preferred in the country characterized in this way, and vice versa.

와이브로서비스와 기존 정보통신서비스간의 대체/보완관계 실증분석

한상필,안재현,김문구,박봉원 한국경영과학회 2005 經營 科學 Vol.22 No.2

When new services are introduced, interaction among existing and new services has to be considered. The interaction can be characterized by the substitution or complementary effect among services. This paper analyzes how the interaction among services affects the customers’ subscription decision in telecommunication services industry. Based on a face-to-face in-depth survey from a sample of 1,200 respondents, a new wireless internet access service or WiBro is analyzed to identify the substitution/complementary effect in relation to the existing other telecommunication services. Additionally, the important factors explaining both customers’ subscription and substitution decisions are identified. The analysis results indicate that males and students are more likely to subscribe WiBro service. Interestingly, family size positively affects the subscription decision. However, heavy users of on-line game are reluctant to subscribe WiBro service. Among the potential WiBro subscribers, the customers who are less satisfied with the existing fixed line broadband internet access service are more likely to stop subscribing the fixed line service, which implies substitution by a new service. We believe that the consideration of the interactions among services is essential to devise a winning strategy for the new services in the highly uncertain telecommunications business environment.

조세와 자본구조

전규안 한국세무학회 2004 세무학 연구 Vol.21 No.3

This study tests the substitution effect(the firms with higher investment-related tax shields or non-debt tax shield will employ less debt in their capital structure due to the positive relation between investment-related tax shields and the probability of losing the deductibility of debt tax shield) and tax exhaustion effect(the substitution effect seems to be more applicable to firms that are subject to a substantial probability of losing the deductibility of tax shields). The sample of this study includes companies listed in Korean stock market (excluding financial institutions and using the 1,497 firm-years data) and an analysis period is 8 years (1994-2001). The major findings of the present study are as follows. First, this study finds the substitution effect and tax exhaustion effect. But a debt securability effect(a firm is able to issue relatively more debt if the debt can be collateralized by fixed assets) isn't exist. Second, intangible assets(advertising and research and development costs) aren't related to debt. Third, the lower profitable and larger firms have the more debt and operating risk isn't related to debt. But during Korean economic crisis, the larger operating risk firms have the smaller debt. Finally, debt ratio of the firms with more operating assets as well as with more non-operating assets is lower. 본 연구에서는 주권상장법인의 1994년부터 2001년까지의 자료를 대상으로 부채감세수단과 비부채감세수단간의 대체효과와 부채담보가능효과가 존재하는가를 알아보았으며, 대체효과가 감세효과를 잃을 가능성이 높은 기업들(즉, 조세부담이 낮은 기업들)에게서 나타나는 조세고갈효과가 존재하는가를 알아보았다. 실증분석 결과, 비부채감세수단이 많을수록 부채감세수단을 적게 이용한다는 대체효과와 이러한 대체효과가 조세부담이 적은 기업에서 주로 발생한다는 조세고갈효과가 존재함을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 담보가능한 자산이 많을수록 더 많은 부채를 조달한다는 부채담보가능효과는 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 광고선전비는 IMF 외환위기 이전과 외환위기 중에는 부채와 양의 관계가 있으나 외환위기 이후에는 음의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 연구개발비는 부채와 특별한 관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 규모가 큰 기업일수록 부채를 많이 이용하며 수익성과 영업위험이 낮은 기업일수록 부채를 많이 이용하는 것으로 나타났다. 다섯째, 업무무관자산 뿐만 아니라 업무유관자산도 부채비율과 음의 값을 갖는 것으로 나타나, 업무무관자산이 많을수록 부채비율이 낮다기보다는 부채비율과 유형자산 간에 음의 관계가 존재하는 것으로 보인다.

Quantification of Carbon Reduction Effects of Domestic Wood Products for Valuation of Public Benefit

( Yoon-seong Chang ),( Sejong Kim ),( Kwang-mo Kim ),( Hwanmyeong Yeo ),( Kug-bo Shim ) 한국목재공학회 2018 목재공학 Vol.46 No.2

This study was carried out to quantify degree of contribution of harvested wood product (HWP) on mitigation of climate change by valuation of public benefits, environmentally and economically. The potential carbon dioxide emission reduction of HWP was estimated by accounting carbon storage effect and substitution effect. Based on 2014 statistics of Korea Forest Service, domestic HWPs were sorted by two categories, such as wood products produced domestically from domestic and imported roundwood. The wood products were divided into seven items; sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard (MDF), paper (including pulp), biomass (wood pellet) and other products. The carbon stock of wood products and substitution effects during manufacturing process was evaluated by items. Based on the relevant carbon emission factor and life cycle analysis, the amount of carbon dioxide emission per unit volume on HWP was quantified. The amounts of carbon stock of HWP produced from domestic and from imported roundwood were 3.8 million tCO_2eq., and 2.6 million tCO_2eq., respectively. Also, each reduction of carbon emission by substitution effect of HWP produced from domestic and imported roundwood was 3.1 million tCO_2eq. and 2.1 million tCO_2eq., respectively. The results of this study, the amount of carbon emission reduction of HWP, can be effectively used as a basic data for promotion of wood utilization to revise and establish new wood utilization promotion policy such as ‘forest carbon offset scheme’, and ‘carbon storage labeling system of HWP’.

한국과 일본 여성청년실업의 출산탄력성 분석

전현중 한일경상학회 2021 韓日經商論集 Vol.93 No.-

Purpose: This study compared the effects of youth unemployment on fertility in Korea and Japan. Specifically, the analysis aims to find out the income effect and substitution effect by estimating the fertility rate elasticity of the female youth unemployment rate. Research design, data, and methodology: This study first reviews existing studies on factors that affect the fertility rate. Next, we look at the youth labor force structure and youth unemployment rate trends in Korea and Japan. The fertility rate elasticity of the female youth unemployment rate is analyzed through empirical analysis. In particular, this study focuses on estimating the effect of the unemployment rate of 15-24 year old female youth on the fertility rate in Korea and Japan. The analysis period was from 1991 to 2020. For the analysis data, OECD data were mainly used, and data were supplemented by the Statistics Bureau of Korea and the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan. The analysis method technically analyzes the youth labor force structure and youth unemployment rate trends in Korea and Japan, and estimates the effect of the female youth unemployment rate on the fertility rate in both countries. Specifically, the simple linear (OLS) model was regression-analyzed using the R program. Results: In Korea and Japan, it was found that whenever the youth unemployment rate increased, it had a negative (-) effect on the fertility rate. The fertility elasticity of female youth unemployment is less than 1 in both countries, but it is twice as large in Japan as in Korea. When unemployment of young women increases, income decreases and the fertility rate falls, so the income effect appears to have a relatively large effect. Implications: Both Korea and Japan will need to focus their policy efforts on solving female youth unemployment in order to raise the fertility rate. In Korea, the fertility elasticity of youth unemployment is lower than that in Japan, so it is estimated that the fertility rate is relatively affected by factors other than the youth unemployment rate compared to Japan. Therefore, it is expected that other factors, such as economic stimulus and institutional improvement, can improve the fertility rate in Korea.

국민연금이 저축에 미치는 영향 연구

유경원(Kyeongwon Yoo),유승동(Seung Dong You) 한국경제연구학회 2017 한국경제연구 Vol.35 No.1

본 논문에서는 최근 가계저축률의 변화를 살펴보고 공적저축 가입의 가계 사적저축에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하고 경제에 주는 시사점을 구하였다. 특히 본 논문에서는 기존 연구에서 다소 미흡하였던 불확실성의 효과를 감안한 공적연금 가입효과를 분석하고, 이를 두 가지 경로로 구분하여 직접적인 효과와 간접적인 효과로 식별하였다. 공적연금 가입의 직접적인 저축률에 미치는 효과와 공적연금 가입의 예비적 저축동기 상쇄효과의 합이 공적연금 가입에 따른 저축률 효과라 할 수 있다. 결국 이와 같은 공적저축의 사적저축 대체(구축)효과는 가계가 직면하는 불확실성의 크기에 따라 달라질 수 있다는 것이다. 실증분석에서는 가계가 직면하는 소비불확실성이 클수록 공적저축의 사적저축 대체(구축)효과는 나타날 가능성이 높지만, 소비 불확실성이 작으면 오히려 공적저축의 존재는 은퇴유발효과를 가져와 사적저축을 증대시키는 역할을 수행할 수 있음을 시사한다. 아울러 실증분석 결과에서 보듯이 공적연금 가입의 예비적 저축동기 상쇄효과는 일관되게 음(-)으로 통계적으로 유의하게 나타나 공적저축의 사회안전망 기능이 현재로서는 제대로 작동하고 있음을 시사하는 결과로 판단된다. 따라서 최근 저축률 상승에 있어 예비적 저축동기가 주요한 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 있으며, 공적연금제도의 불확실성의 확대도 이와 같은 저축동기를 배가시키는 요인으로 작용할 가능성을 본 연구결과는 시사한다. We study patterns of Korean households’ financial strategies by analyzing the effects of public saving on private saving. In particular, we focus on a relationship between uncertainty that households face and their saving behaviors. There exist substitution effects between private saving and public saving and the effects can be divided into two separate effects: direct effects and indirect effects. The direct effects represent changes in private saving due to enforced public saving such as the National Pension Service, whereas the indirect effects represent changes in household precautionary saving due to reduced uncertainty through the enforced public saving. Our empirical evidence shows that the amount of a household’s private saving can be a function of uncertainty. With higher(lower) degree of uncertainty, households are more likely to reduce(increase) private saving with public pensions. We suggest that statistically signifiant negative signs for the substitution effects imply that the enforced public saving plays a role of a social safety net.