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진술선호 자료와 현시선호 자료를 이용한 신제품의 수요예측:한국의 텔레매틱스 시장을 대상으로
이철용,이종수 에스케이텔레콤 (주) 2007 Telecommunications Review Vol.17 No.5
Demand forecasting for a new product is difficult, but it is essential to successful marketing. The current study suggests a new forecasting methodology designed for newly introduced product, which is applied to the Telematics service market in Korea. A conjoint analysis based on surveys of consumers is used to derive individual choice probability. Then, we forecast the number of subscribers of Telematics service deriving the dynamic choice probability by combining the conjoint analysis results with the data in technology roadmap. Because consumer statement is, however, subject to biases, parameters of forecasting model are updated using Bayes’s theorem with available subscriber data. 신제품, 특히 시장에 출시되지 않은 제품에 대해 수요 예측을 한다는 것은 많은 연구자들에게 어려움의 대상이지만 시장 초기 또는 시장 진입 시점 전에서의 정확한 수요 예측은 신제품 성공여부에 매우 중요한 영향을 끼친다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 시장 진입 초기 상태에 있는 신제품의 미래 확산을 파악할 수 있는 새로운 수요예측 모형을 제시하고 이를 한국의 텔레매틱스 서비스 시장에 적용하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 진술선호 자료에 기반한 컨조인트 방법론을 이용하여 제품에 대한 개별소비자의 선택확률을 도출하고 이를 텔레매틱스 서비스를 구현시키는 각 기술에 대한 로드맵과 결합하여 동적인 소비자의 선택을 관찰함으로써 텔레매틱스 서비스가 확산되는 과정을 살펴본다. 하지만 진술선호에 기반한 예측치와 실제구매 사이에는 관측되지 않는 다양한 요인에 의해 차이가 발생하기 때문에 이를 보정하기 위해 베이즈 이론과 현시선호 자료를 이용하여 수요 예측 모형의 모수들을 업데이트함으로써 보다 정확하게 신제품의 수요를 예측하고자 한다.
이철용 한양대학교 한국학연구소 1992 韓國學論集 Vol.20 No.-
Tonguibokam which Hu Joon completed in the second year of Kwanghaegoon(1610) has been republished several times since it was first published in the 5th year of Kwanghaegoon(1613). The other nationaal scripts are following like these. (A) 萬曆 41年 11月 內醫院奉敎刊行(初刊本) (B) 己亥仲秋內醫院 校正嶺營開刊本 (C) 歲甲戌仲冬內醫院 校正嶺營改刊本 (D) 歲甲戌仲冬內醫院 校正完營重刊本 (E) 萬曆 41年(1613~1634) (국립도서관 古7671-42) In this thesis, compared with one another, the published years of other scripts were inferred and with the criterion of the first published script, the inscription and phoneme for Hyangyak name of Yangaek pyun were speculated. It is believed that (B) script was published in 1659 and 1719. Like the first script, the ㅄ-field hapyongbyungsu of 'ㅴ' was used and with no round-sound phenomenon in this script. So it is assumed not the phoneme status of the early 18th century but that of the Kihae year 1695. (C) and (D) scripts are said to have been published in 1814, but the year 1754 can be. (E) script which is made of wood has the year 1613-1634. But its published period may be the mid 17th century like (B) script or the rewritten script of (B), for it has the use of 'ㅴ'and with no round-sound phenomenon. In the way of inscreption, 'ㅴ, ㅳ, ㅄ, ㅶ' and 'ㅺ, ㅼ, ㅽ' were used as a group of consonant acronym like in the mid-century Korean Language and 'ㅲ'is seen in(C)-(E) scripts. The first script was mostly written by the way of link-spelling and (B) script was by mid-spelling, (C)-(E) scripts by division-spelling. From the late 16th century, the mixing phenomenon of ㅅ and ㄷ came out in the end of syllable. Though ㅅ end-sound was used in the17th century, it was mixed with ㄷ end-sound and also in Thonguibokom. The palatalization of 'ㄷ', with the main example of 'Jinjit' in Dooshiunhae, had been seen continuously but slightly until the early 17th century and was considerably diffused in the late 17th century. Some examples of 'ㄷ' palatalization are seen in Tonguibokam, too. The fortis phenomenon of front-word sound was begun in the late 15th century. Expression intensification and the influence of pre-word are found in Tonguibokam. In the central language, round-sound phenomenon was completed in the late 17th century, but there is no example in (A) (B) scripts and a few in (C)-(E) scripts. The 1st-step loss of 'ㆍ' was in the 16th century and it was for the change 'ㆍ>-' after second syllabel. In Tonguibokam, the examples of 1st-step loss are not found a lot and there is no example of 2nd-step loss.