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연립방정식모형으로 분석한 주택담보대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
조태진(Tae jin Cho) 한국주택학회 2016 주택연구 Vol.24 No.1
2008.9월 세계금융위기 이후 최근까지 우리나라 주택시장은 수도권과 지방이 확연히 다른 경로를 걸어왔다. 즉, 수도권 주택시장은 침체, 지방 주택시장은 활황이라는 양면성을 보여 왔던 것이다. 또한 저금리 기조가 장기화되면서 실업률, 경제성장 등 경제변수 보다 전세가격, 매매가격 대비 전세가격 비율, 주택담보대출 등 경제외적 요인이 주택시장에 미치는 영향이 지대하게 되었다. 이러한 상황에서 본 연구는 주택대출이 주택시장에 미치는 영향을 정확하게 분석하기 위하여 연립방정식 모형으로 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 대상기간 동안 전국 15개 시도를 주택가격이 하락한 지역과 상승한 지역을 구분하여 패널 데이터를 구축하여 분석하였다. 대상기간 동안 아파트매매가격이 하락하거나 상승률이 낮았던 서울, 인천, 대전, 경기, 강원, 충남, 전북, 전남 등 8개 시도가 그룹 1로 구분되었으며 나머지 부산, 대구, 광주, 울산, 충북, 경북, 경남 등 7개 시도가 그룹 2로 구분되었다. 그룹 1은 패널고정효과 모형이, 그룹 2는 pooled OLS 모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 분석결과 모든 그룹에서 연립방정식 모형의 ML 변수의 계수 값이 큰 것으로 나타나 모형 내에 내생적 설명변수가 존재하는 경우에는 연립방정식모형으로 분석하여야 함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 모든 그룹에서 전세가격지수 및 미분양아파트수의 계수 값과 유의성이 매우 높게 나와 분석기간 동안 우리나라 주택가격은 경제논리보다는 전세가격의 상승에 따른 임차인들의 매매시장 참여와 세계금융위기 이후 신축주택 급감에 따른 미분양 물량의 감소가 주택시장을 견인하였음을 알 수 있다. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of housing mortgage loans on housing prices in the two clusters, with 7 metropolitan cities and 8 provinces except Sejong and Jeju in the south korea. The dependent variable is housing prices(ASI), based on the actual data from buying and selling transactions of apartment units. The independent variables are macroeconomic variables and sentiment index such as ESI(economic sentiment index) and BSIRE(Business Survey Index of Real Estate Prospect). Panel data, in this case, is composed of the cross section data in a given time series, which is from september 2008 to october 2015. As is known in this literature, mortgage loans is endogenous with the dependent variable, the housing prices. Mortgage loans increases as housing price rises and housing price goes up as mortgage loan expands. Taking the endogeneity into account, I estimated a simultaneous equation system with the two stage least square’s method. The result shows that mortgage loans is under estimated in the OLS analysis, whereas it is properly estimated in the 2SLS. The contribution of this study is to improve the existing literature regarding the effects of mortgage loans on the housing prices, thus providing helpful implication on the housing problem.
매매가대비전세가비율이 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
조태진 ( Tae Jin Cho ) 한국부동산분석학회 2015 不動産學硏究 Vol.21 No.2
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of Jeonse to purchase price ratio on the housing prices in the seven major cities including Seoul, Busan, Daegu in South Korea. All the variables are macroeconomic and base on the monthly data from January 2000 to october 2014. Multiple regression model is used fo the analysis. First step is to examine whether the structural change in the housing market before and after the global financial crisis by Chow test. The result shows that there are structural change in Seoul, Inchen, Ulsan but not in other cities. Second step is to test how affects the housing prices. The result shows that negatively affects housing prices in most cities. It implies a trade-off between the two objects - stabilization of Jeonse prices and stimulation of housing prices. Based on these finding, it can be argued that the government policy to stabilize the Jeonse markets by stimulating housing prices is not effective in these days. Therefore, the government should make it clear whether the policy targets at stabilizing Jeonse prices or at stimulating housing prices.
조혜미,조태진,양원호,이종화,손부순,Jou, Hye-Mee,Cho, Tae-Jin,Yang, Won-Ho,Lee, Jong-Wha,Son, Bu-Soon 한국환경보건학회 2009 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.35 No.2
This study analyzed the concentration of the lead in blood (n=774) from May, 2007 to Oct 2007. The subject was residents in G, Y, H industrial area, Jeollanam-do, in which exposure to the lead is expected due to the adjacency of the industrial complex. As to the lead concentration in the blood of the residents in the whole exposed region and the comparing region, $2.81{\mu}g/dl$ in the exposed region group, and $2.86{\mu}g/dl$ in the comparing region group Respectively, which indicates that the concentration of the comparing group was higher than that of the exposed group. The geometric mean concentration of lead in blood was $3.26{\mu}g/dl$ as to men, and $2.46{\mu}g/dl$ as to women, which indicates that the concentration of men is higher than that of women (p<0.01). The lead concentration for each age group increased in proportion to age except those under 10 for some substances (p<0.01). As to geometric mean concentration in blood according to the smoking history of the subject, the concentration of the smoking group and the non-smoking group was $3.57{\mu}g/dl$ and $2.66{\mu}g/dl$ respectively, which indicates the former is higher than the latter (p<0.01). To clarify the factors affecting the heavy metal concentration in blood among the subjects, the multiple regression analysis was conducted. As a result, it turned out that as to lead content in blood, gender, age, smoking all affect the lead concentration of the subjects ($R^2$=23.3%).
송미라,조태진,전혜리,김종오,손부순,Song, Mi-Ra,Cho, Tae-Jin,Jeon, Hye-Li,Kim, Jong-O,Son, Bu-Soon 한국환경보건학회 2009 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.35 No.4
This study analysed the mercury concentration in the hair of 62 students (male : 21, female : 41) of D university in Najusi, Jeon-Nam area. Also, questionnaire, which developed by NIES, were completed by the students. According to the questionnaire, most of the students had a higher intake of meat than that of fish. Also, among the students, there were many smokes and many had dental treatment with amalgam. Based on the gender, female showed 1.024 ${\mu}g/g$ and male showed 0.882 ${\mu}g/g$ of the mercury concentration. This means that female students had higher level of mercury in their hair, but it was not a significant statistic difference. Comparing by the intake frequency of meat, processed food stuffs, protein foods, it shows the more they at the higher mercury concentration was observed. According to the intake frequency of fish, when the number of times they intake increased, the mercury concentration was higher. Under one time was 0.857 ${\mu}g/g$ and twice or more times were 1.152 ${\mu}g/g$, which showed a significant statistical difference (p<0.05). Depending on the Life style, the mercury concentration in the hair was high with workout, outdoor activities, and direct smoking. The mercury concentration in the hair showed no difference for whether they received amalgam treatment but the personal dietary habit and the Living condition affects strongly on the mercury concentration level.