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지역통상정보 : VAR모형을 이용한 수출상품 수요예측에 관한 연구: 소형 승용차 모델별 분기별 대미수출을 중심으로
조중형 ( Jung Hyeong Cho ) 한국통상정보학회 2014 통상정보연구 Vol.16 No.3
본 연구는 우리나라 수출 상위 5개 품목 중 하나인 자동차 수출을 대상으로, 승용차 브랜드별 단기수출수요에 영향을 미치는 이론적 잠재요인을 발굴 및 설계하여 이론적 수출수요예측모델을 개발하고, 다변량시계열분석 기반의 VAR(Vector Auto Regressive)모형을 이용한 실증분석을 통해 개별상품과 시장특성이 반영된 단기수출수요예측모델을 검정하고자 하였다. 따라서 미국에 수출되고 있는 우리나라 소형 승용차 2개 브랜드(엑센트, 아반떼)에 대해 VAR모형을 이용한 분기단위 단기수요예측모델을 개발하고, 브랜드별 예측모델을 통해 산출된 분기 시점의 예측값과 실제 판매된 판매대수를 대상기간을 1분기씩 달리하여 비교평가 하였다. 그 결과 엑센트와 아반떼의 RMSE %는 각각 4.3%와 20.0%로 났으며, 일평균 판매량을 기준으로 보았을 때 엑센트는 3.9일에 해당하고 아반떼는 18.4일에 해당하는 물량임을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 본 연구의 단기수출수요예측모델은 예측력과 검정시점별 일관성 측면에서 활용성이 높은 것으로 평가할 수 있었다. The purpose of this research is to evaluate a short-term export demand forecasting model reflecting individual passenger vehicle brands and market characteristics by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models that are based on multivariate time-series model. The short-term export demand forecasting model was created by discerning theoretical potential factors that affect the short-term export demand of individual passenger vehicle brands. Quarterly short-term export demand forecasting model for two Korean small vehicle brands (Accent and Avante) were created by using VAR model. Predictive value at t+1 quarter calculated with the forecasting models for each passenger vehicle brand and the actual amount of sales were compared and evaluated by altering subject period by one quarter. As a result, RMSE % of Accent and Avante was 4.3% and 20.0% respectively. They amount to 3.9 days for Accent and 18.4 days for Avante when calculated per daily sales amount. This shows that the short-term export demand forecasting model of this research is highly usable in terms of prediction and consistency.
Endothelin-1에 의한 phospholipase C 활성화와 세포내 Ca2+ 이동에 미치는 protein kinase 들의 효과
조중형(Jung Hyung Cho),김현준(Hyun Jun Kim),이윤혜(Yun Hye Lee),박진형(Jin Hyoung Park),장용운(Youn Un Jang),이승준(Seung June Lee),이준한(June Han Lee),윤정이(Jeong Yi Yoon),김창종(Chang Jong Kim),심상수(Sang Soo Sim) 대한약학회 2000 약학회지 Vol.44 No.2
To investigate the effects of protein kinases on endothelin-l-induced phospholipase C activation and Ca2+ mobilization in Rat-2 fibroblast, we measured the formation of inositol phosphates and intracellular Ca2+ concentration with [3H]inositol and Fura-2/AM, respectively. Endothelin-1 dose-dependently activated phospholipase C and increased intracellular Ca2+ concentration. Protein kinase C activator, PMA, significantly inhibited both phospholipase C activity and Ca2+ mobilization induced by endothelin-1. Tyrosine kinase inhibitor, genistein, inhibited both. On the other hand, cyclic nucleotide (cAMP and cGMP) did not have any influence on the signaling pathway of phospholipase C-Ca2+ mobilization induced by endothelin-1. These results suggest that protein kinase C and tyrosine kinase counteract on the signaling pathway of phospholipase C-Ca2+ mobilization induced by endothelin-1 in Rat-2 fibroblast.
위 평활근에서 수용성 이완에 관여하는 cyclic nucleotide들의 작용
심상수,최현호,이정근,문성원,이준한,조중형,김창종 중앙대학교 약학연구소 1998 약학 논총 Vol.12 No.-
To investigate the actions of cyclic nucleotides associated with receptive relaxation, smooth muscle strips isolated from cat stomach were used to measure the isometric contraction in an isolated organ bath. Both sodium nitroprusside and forskolin inhibited acetylcholine-induced contraction dose-dependently. The inhibitory effect of sodium nitroprusside was more potent than that of forskolin. Verapamil, voltage-dependent calcium channel blocker, and TMB-8, a blocker of intracellular Ca^2+ release, significantly inhibited acetylcholine-induced contraction. Combined effects of verapamil and TMB-8 with sodium nitroprusside (0.1 μM) were significantly greater than that of each one, whereas those with forskolin (1 μM) were similar to that of each one. Tyrosine phosphatase inhibitor, vanadate (10 μM) significantly blocked the inhibitory effects of verapamil (1 μM), TMB -8 (1 μM) and forskolin (1 μM), but did not that of sodium nitroprusside (0.1 μM). However, protein kinase C activator, PMA (10 μM), did not affect the inhibitory effects of the above four agents. From the above results, it is suggested that the action of cAMP on receptive relaxation may be different from that of cGMP, which is modulated by tyrosine phosphatase in gastric smooth muscle.
김창종,김현준,이윤혜,이연아,이정근,문성원,박진형,장용운,조중형 대한약학회 2000 약학회지 Vol.44 No.3
$Nokyangbotang^{TM}$ (NYBT) is a kind of powerful food for health and have been drunk at a oral dose of 80 ml (99.5 mg) three times per day: It has not been well studied about the anti-fatigue and hepatoprotective activity. In this experiments, we evaluated pathophysiologically the effect of NYBT on swimming time in mouse and hepatoprotective activity in rats intoxicated with carbon-tetrachloride. NYBT was nontoxic in orally acute toxicity test ($LD_{50}$, 320 ml/60 kg): a nontoxic food in more four times of one-shoot dosage (80 ml) to human. Weight-loaded forced swimming test was carried out to measure the swimming time of mice with a 4% load of body weight in plastic cylinder (diameter $10{\;}cm{\;}{\times}{\;}height{\;}20{\;}cm$) on water bath at $25^{\circ}C$, and the anti-fatigue activity represented the ratio of swimming time of experimental group to that of control group. NYBT had dose-dependent anti-fatigue activity Mice administered NYBT at a dose of 320 ml/60 kg once daily for 5 days could swim about two times more than control. Hepatoprotective activities of NYBT were examined by the determination of malonedialdehyde (MDA) and pathological survey in liver and liver function test of rat intoxicated with $CCl_4$ at i.m. dose of 2 ml/kg once daily for 7days. NYBT decreased dose-dependently thiobarbituric acid reactive substance: Oral administration of NYBT at a dose of 20 ml/60 kg was $38.51{\;}{\pm}{\;}3.02$ nmol MDA/g of tissue, that of 80 ml/60 kg was $33.76{\;}{\pm}{\;} 1.84$ nmol MDA/g of tissue, and that of 320 ml/60 kg was $32.87{\;}{\pm}{\;}1.90$ nmol MDA/g of tissue as compared with control group ($43.61{\;}{\pm}{\;}2.85$ nmol MDA/g of tissue). All rats administered NYBT at a dose of 320 ml/60 kg were survival as compared with 40% survival of control animals, and GPT activity of rats administered NYBT at a dose of 80 ml/60 kg was decreased as compared with control. In histopathological survey, NYBT improved slightly the fatty changes of hepatocytes around centrilobular area. These results suggest that NYBT has anti-fatigue and hepatoprotective activity in rats and mice.