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이명건,김민수 한국세무학회 2024 세무와 회계저널 Vol.25 No.1
This study deals with intangible asset productivity and financial analysts’ forecast errors. It examines whether financial analysts’ forecast errors decrease as intangible asset productivity increases. Intangible asset productivity, measured according to the research of Clausen and Hirth(2016), refers to the degree to which intangible assets operate efficiently and significantly contribute to the firm’s profits. The financial analyst forecast error used as the dependent variable was calculated as the difference between the profit forecast and the actual forecast by financial analysts who follow the firm. The sample used in this study is firms listed on the KOSPI stock market from 2011 to 2022, and the final sample with all the data needed for analysis is 2,335 firm-years. As a result of the analysis, it was found that as intangible asset productivity increases, financial analysts’ forecast errors decrease. In particular, the effect of reducing forecast errors was strong in the section where overprediction errors occur. In other words, the higher the intangible asset productivity, the easier it is for financial analysts to analyze the firm, which reduces information risk. In particular, this means that the effect of reducing the risk of overprediction is more pronounced. According to the above results, this paper is expected to have the following contributions. First, we directly demonstrated that as the productivity of intangible assets increases, it becomes easier for financial analysts to make predictions for the firm in question, reducing forecast errors. In other words, it directly showed the information risk caused by intangible asset productivity through an actual observable variable called financial analyst forecast error. Next, it was shown that the higher the intangible asset productivity, the greater the effect of reducing the overprediction tendency among financial analysts’ forecast errors. Conversely, if the intangible asset productivity is low, it means that financial analysts are more likely to overpredict the firm, so market participants. This suggests that there is a need to be cautious when handling such firm information. Lastly, for agencies in charge of capital market regulation, it can be used as a basis for discovering detailed information on intangible assets held by companies in the capital market and developing disclosure policies.
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Laminate Tensile Failure Strength Prediction using Stress Failure Criteria
이명건,김재훈 항공우주시스템공학회 2021 항공우주시스템공학회지 Vol.15 No.6
This paper presents a method that uses the stress failure criteria to predict the tensile failure strength of open-hole laminates with stress concentrations. The composite material used in this study corresponds to a 177 °C cured, carbon/epoxy unidirectional tape prepreg. The results obtained by testing ten different laminates were compared and analyzed to verify the tensile strength of the open-hole laminates predicted using the proposed stress failure criteria. The findings of this study confirm that the tensile strength predictions performed using the proposed method are generally accurate, except in cases involving highly soft laminates (10% of 0° ply).
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이명건,오명전,서영미 한국회계정책학회 2012 회계와 정책연구 Vol.17 No.1
We investigate the management forecast behavior when firms have the incentives to smooth income by earnings management. Specifically, we divide sample firms into income-increasing firms and income-decreasing firms, and test the differential management forecast behavior of these two groups. Prior studies report that management forecast tends to be over-estimated, and this study empirically examines the over-estimating tendency of management forecast based on income smoothing incentives. When managers have incentives for income-increasing smoothing, these firms may over-estimate management forecasts in advance of positive earnings management to make investors adjust their expectations positively. On the contrary, when managers have incentives for income-decreasing smoothing, the firms may disclose conservative management forecasts in advance of negative earnings management to maintain conservative expectations. We expect that these firms tend to utilize management forecasts to manage the investors’ expectations towards the intended earnings management. Results indicate that income-increasing smoothing firms are likely to over-estimate the management forecasts, while income-decreasing smoothing firms tend to under-estimate the management forecasts. 본 연구에서는 이익평준화를 위한 이익조정 동기에 따라 경영자 예측정보의 공시행태가 달라지는지 연구하고자 한다. 구체적으로 이익 평준화 방향에 따라 기업을 상향이익평준화 기업과 하향이익평준화 기업으로 나누어 각각 경영자 예측편의가 어떻게 달라지는지 분석하였다. 선행연구에 의하면 일반적으로 경영자는 예측치를 과대하게 제시하는 경향이 있으며, 본 연구는 이익평준화 동기에 따라 이러한 과대예측 성향이 어떻게 달라지는지 실증하였다. 즉 경영자가 양(+)의 방향으로 상향이익평준화를 하려는 의도가 있는 경우, 경영자는 과대예측의 정도를 크게 함으로써 사전에 시장의 기대를 이익조정 방향과 일치시키려는 유인이 있을 것이다. 그러나 경영자가 음(-)의 방향으로 하향이익평준화를 하려는 의도가 있는 경우에는 지나친 과대예측은 오히려 시장의 기대를 달성하지 못했다는 부정적인 평가를 가져올 수 있다. 따라서 하향이익평준화를 의도하는 경영자는 과대예측의 정도를 상대적으로 더 작게 하거나, 실제 보고이익에 근접한 예측치를 공시하기 위해 노력할 것이다. 그 결과 경영자의 과대예측 정도는 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 연구결과 상향이익평준화 기업의 경우 경영자는 상대적으로 더 큰 과대예측 정보를 공시하였으며, 하향이익평준화 기업의 경우 상대적으로 과대예측 정도가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.
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The Relationship between Related Party Transactions and Management Forecasts
이명건,박우진,서영미 한국국제회계학회 2013 국제회계연구 Vol.0 No.49
Using a comprehensive sample of listed firms in Korea, we investigate the empirical association between related party transactions (hereafter, RPTs) and management forecasts. This paper discusses the impact of RPTs on management forecasts in Korea where RPTs are prevalent and strict requirements for disclosure of RPTs are conducive to RPTs dealings. Sample period is 8 years from 2002 when voluntary disclosure was enacted to 2009. Specifically, we empirically examine the effect of RPTs on management forecast bias and accuracy. Firms with frequent RPTs are likely to show managerial empire building(Cho and Kim 2013) and relatively weak internal control(AICPA 2001). Therefore, the quality of management forecasts may be overoptimistic and poor. Firms with majority shareholders have more control over RPTs and fewer external interest parties. These firms pay less attention to management forecasts, which leads to increased management forecast errors and inaccuracy. By contrast, firms with large number of analyst followings pay more attention to management forecasts due to high demand for information in the market. Results show that management forecast bias and errors decrease as RPTs increases. This suggests that RPTs increase managers’ tendency to disclose overoptimistic management forecasts. This effect is intensified in firms with majority shareholder suggesting that these firms may increase discretionary transactions as less interested parties monitor them. Therefore, these firms are likely to release overoptimistic forecasts which leads to less accurate management forecasts. Finally, firms with large analyst followings, management forecast accuracy decreases relatively less as RPTs increases. This means that even if firms have frequent RPTs, they tend to pay close attention to disclose management forecasts when with large market information demands.
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이명건,박종필,박우진 한국경영정보학회 2015 Asia Pacific Journal of Information Systems Vol.25 No.1
Investment in research and development (R&D) is critical in the information technology (IT) firms, where newer and better technology is a quintessential goal that directly affects innovation and competitive advantage. This study investigates how R&D investment influences firm performance and value, and how the effect of R&D investment differs between IT hardware and software firms. We also analyze the relationship between firm age and R&D investment in order to identify learning effects on continuous R&D investment. The empirical investigation in this study, based on longitudinal archival data from 2001 to 2010, found a significant effect of R&D investment on firm performance in IT firms. Further, this study demonstrates causal relationship between firm age, and verifies that learning effects are present in R&D investment. Moreover, the results are found to differ between IT hardware and IT software firms.
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