재무분석가의 낙관주의가 walkdown에 미치는 영향과 예측어려움의 조절효과

곽상진(Kwak, Sang-Jin),조용언(Cho, Yong-Eon),하순금(Ha, Soon-Gum) 한국경영교육학회 2020 경영교육연구 Vol.35 No.5

[연구목적] 본 연구는 재무분석가의 낙관주의 동기 유인이 예측 walkdown에 미치는 영향을 인지심리적 측면에서 검증하고 예측어려움이 높을수록 재무분석가의 낙관주의 동기유인이 예측 walkdown을 보다 강화하는지를 분석하였다. [연구방법] 이를 위해 재무분석가의 낙관주의 동기 유인과 예측어려움과 관련된 국내외 선행연구에 관한 문헌을 바탕으로 실증분석에 필요한 가설을 설정하였다. 가설 검증에 사용된 표본은 2011년부터 2016년까지 유가증권 시장의 상장기업 중 820개의 기업-연도표본이다. 재무분석가 이익예측자료와 재무자료는 Kis-Value에서 수집하였다. 수집된 자료를 바탕으로 Bradshaw et al.(2016)가 제시한 연구모형에 대한 회귀분석을 실시하였다. [연구결과] 본 연구의 분석결과는 첫째, 재무분석가의 낙관주의 동기 유인이 클수록 예측walkdown이 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 예측어려움이 높을수록 재무분석가의 낙관주의 동기 유인이 예측walkdown을 강화하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 재무분석가의 지향성 있는 결론에 대한 낙관주의 동기 유인이 클수록 매출액과 영업이익의 walkdown이 커지며, 이 과정에서 예측어려움이 조절작용을 하고 있음을 의미한다. [연구의 시사점] 본 연구는 낙관적 예측 편의가 존재하는 재무분석가의 보고서를 이용하는 시장참여자들이 합리적 판단을 할 수 있는 근거를 제공하고 재무분석가의 낙관적 예측편의에서 파생되는 시장의 부정적인 영향을 사전에 차단할 수 있는 정책수립의 근거를 제공하는데 시사점을 준다. [Purpose] This study examines the pattern of analysts’ forecasts within a fiscal year, which begins with optimism and declines as the earnings announcement date approaches, and also does that one factors, forecasting difficulty, interact with analysts’ incentives for optimism to induce cross-sectional variation in the steepness of forecast walkdown. [Methodology] As follows are univariate t-test and multivariate regressions results from a sample of 820 firm-years listed in Korea Exchange between 2011 and 2016. [Findings] The general association between analysts’ incentives for optimism and forecast walkdown is supported by empirical evidence. In addition, it is supported that as difficulty is higher, forecast walkdown becomes steeper. [Implications] This result means that analysts begin with optimism to react to motivation for a directional conclusion at the beginning of the year, adjust downward their forecast to react to motivation for accuracy as the earnings announcement date approaches. In addition, this means forecasting difficulty is in the highest at longer forecast horizons, it declines with the release of information during the year. Then, based on Kunda’s(1990) work, the biased accessing of information to support optimistic forecasts declines, leading to a forecast walkdown.

Time Marching 방법을 이용한 익렬내의 천이음속 유동해석

곽용민,이진호,조강래 연세대학교 산업기술연구소 1989 논문집 Vol.21 No.1

In this study, A computer program is developed for the analysis of transonic flow field, using Denton's improved time marching scheme. The results are compared with Ecer's results and those obtained by flow anylysis program of General Electric Co. From the comparison of these results, it was found that the developed program can be applied to the transonic flow field analysis.

고속 주행 모드에서 자동차 디퓨저의 스트레이크 개수와 배치에 따른 공기저항 유동해석

이진호,박성하,최동석,한영진,곽나영,이상욱 순천향대학교 부설 산업기술연구소 2021 순천향 산업기술연구소논문집 Vol.27 No.2

This study proposes an optimized diffuser strake design that can improve driving performance for cars in high-speed driving mode. The speed of the vehicle is set to 160km/h, and the number of strake is set to 4, 6 and 8, and the angle of the diffuser is set to 4, 5 and 6 degrees. The arrangement of the strake is centered, edged and equally arranged. The optimized diffuser design induced with the Ansys Fluent analysis shows a drag coefficient of 16% less than the basic diffuser-free model at a diffuser angle of 6 degree, 8 strakes, and equal arrangement.

소비자의 가격촉진방응에 있어서 브랜드충성도 및 촉진이용심리차원의 영향관계에 대한 연구 : 쿠폰촉진을 중심으로 Focus on Coupon Promotion

곽동성,김진영 中央大學校經營硏究所 2001 經營學論集 Vol.27 No.2

청바지제품 세분시장 내 가격-품질 평가집단 추출에 관한 연구 : 결합분석과 mixture model를 이용하여 Based on Conjoint analysis and mixture model

곽영식,이진화 한국의류학회 2002 한국의류학회지 Vol.26 No.11

The purpose of this study was to identify the consumers who use the level of price as the indicator of the product quality. In order to implement the purpose of this study, Jeans market had been segmented by the mixture regression model, and price response function was calibrated for each segment. Based on the types of price response function, segments were allocated into one of two groups the group using the level of price as the quality indicator or the group not using the level of price as that. Then, characteristics of both groups were compared in terms of product attributes and demographic variables. Data were collected from the sample of the 230 undergraduate and graduate students in Seoul. For the data analysis mixture regression model, conjoint analysis and t-test were used. As a result, jeans market was divided into 5 segments. Segment 1,2,3 were allocated into the group not using the level of price as the quality indicator while segment 4,5 were done into the other group. Significant differences existed between two groups in product atttibutes, not in demographic variables. Mixture model and conjoint analysis were proved to be an effective set of tools in market segmentation.

HEC-1 모형에 의한 산간지 하천유역에서의 유출해석

곽종현,이대철,이종석,홍진표 大田産業大學校 1998 한밭대학교 논문집 Vol.15 No.1

The Hydrologic runoff process is a complicated system which consists of hydrologic and hydraulic factors, watershed characteristics and runoff properties. In this study the design flood discharge of the upper basin of the Guem river watershed has been determined based on HEC-1 model. For this purpose, the studied area was divided into 9 sub0basin and 7 channel reaches, and then watershed and river routing have been applied to such sub-basin and channel reaches. As the results, the estimated flood discharge was quite well agreed with the observed one. The parameters such as the lag time, peak time and runoff curve number appeared as the most important factors in runoff analysis. As the considered sub-basin is getting closer to main gage station, the lag time and peak time values decrease while the runoff curve number increases. Overall, this study may provide the useful information of estimation the design flood in smalll watershed of upper catchments.

일본에서의 통일운동 : 전후초기 일본에서의 통일운동에 관한연구

곽진오 연세대학교 통일연구원 2007 통일연구 Vol.11 No.1

This study examines the Korean minorities unification movement of Japan since the postwar era. When Japan defeated the Pacific war, about 2.3 million Korean minorities existed in Japan. During the war the Japanese government treated Korean minorities as Japanese, but after the war Korean minorities realized they were no longer Japanese because the Korean peninsula became an independent country. Therefore, the Korean minorities in Japan started to organize Korean societies to protect their rights and interests. The early post-war Korean societies in Japan were consisted of from left and right, but on May 1946, the various phases of the purge aimed at the right wing, eventually lead to the advent of the leftist and other radicals. During 1946, the purge might have had it greatest influence on every important category of Korean societies in Japan. Subsequent to the summer of 1948, the purge became a holding operation. The "reverse course" which dominated the formulation of policy during the occupation's later years(1948-1952) also influenced the implementation of the purge. By contrast, in 1950 SCAP utilized the purge to remove the leadership of the Korean societies in Japan and the Japan Communist party. The occupation objective that emerged in Japan from the period of tutelage with a leadership of moderates was compromised by the timing of the so called red purge, for the latter coincided with the release from designation of the extreme right Korean societies in Japan. Finally, the Korean societies in Japan separated into left and right, which supports to North(DPRK) and South(R0K) regime, In addition, this paper describes how Korean societies in Japan aimed toward the Korean peninsula unification.

부인과적 진단 복강경술에 대한 임상적 고찰

곽재환,박진완,황태영,김현호,이원기 동아대학교의과대학 1992 동아의대학술지 Vol.4 No.1

MMPI에 의한 胃腸障碍患者의 性格的 特性

郭東日,申東均,玄振海 최신의학사 1984 最新醫學 Vol.27 No.2

全北地方의 藥用作物 재배 및 生産現況

郭晙洙,金昌洙,宋英恩,金柱,朴珍華,韓宗鉉,宋昊俊 圓光大學校 韓醫學硏究所 1997 원광한의학 Vol.7 No.1

본격적인 지방화 시대를 맞이하면서 지역특화작물의 개발과 농가소득증대를 위한 새로운 기술개발이 절실한 이때 주요 소득원작물의 하나인 약용작물의 재배 및 생산현황을 파악하여 지역특성에 맞는 새로운 작목개발 및 정책 입안 자료로 활용하고자 조사분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 생산량을 기준으로한 전북지방의 주요 약용작물을 특화계수 분석결과 총 31개작목 중 독활, 백지, 양유, 오미자, 지황 등은 핵심품목으로 길경, 두층, 방풍, 작약, 천마 등은 주산품목으로 조사되었으며 강활 등 21개 작목은 비특화 작물로 분석되었다. 재배면적을 기준으로 한결과는 독활, 백지, 양유, 지황 등이 핵심품목으로 길경, 두층, 목단, 방풍, 백출, 오미자, 의이인, 작약 등은 주산품목으로 강활 등 19개 품목은 비특화 작물로 분석되었다. 2. 주요 약용작물 재배 계획면적 조사에서는 당귀, 두층, 오미자, 독활, 천궁 등이 계획 대비 실제 재배면적의 차이가 큰 작목으로서 이들은 일반적으로 상품가격의 영향을 많이 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 3. '96 재배면적 조사 결과 전북지방의 주요 약용작물 재배 계획 면적은 총 1,692.7ha였으며 이중 독활이 426ha로 가장 많았고, 길경(283ha), 양유(179ha), 작약(165ha), 두층(154ha), 당귀(113ha), 오미자 의이인, 지황, 산수유, 천궁, 방풍 등의 순이었으며 기타작목으로 백지, 황기, 백하수오 등 28작목이 조사되었다. With the beginning of the new localization era, epoch-making techniques in local agriculture are needed to improve farm income and devlop a locally specialized crops. On the basis of these trends in local agriculture, the status quo of production in medicinal plants which are one of the major income crops were surveyed and analyzed the data for developing a new crops and drafting a policy. The major results are as follows; 1. The results analyzed by Location Quotient of production rate in Chonbuk were classified three catagories. 5 items including Aralia continentalis K_ITAGAWA among 31 items were so rted out as a core crops, another 5 items including Platycodon grandiflotum(J_ACQ.) A.DC. were as a main crops and other 21 items were as a non-specialized crops. Analyzed by cultivation area, 4 items were sorted out as a core crops, another 8 items were as a main crops and the other 19 items were as a non-specialized crops. 2. In comparison with the gap between intended cultivation area and real cultivation area, 5 items including Eucommia ulmoides OLIVER were showed more larger than the others. The above mentioned items were assumed to be more influenced by the price. 3. Farmer's intended cultivation areas of the major medidinal plants in 1996 were surveyed totals of 1.692 ha in Chonbuk. Among them, Aralia corolata was surveyed as the top totals of 426 ha. in area.