논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

저압 초음파 분무 공정을 이용한 γ-Fe₂O₃ 나노입자의 합성

이창우,김순길,좌용호,이재성,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Soon-Gil,Choa, Yong-Ho,Lee, Jai-Sung 한국분말야금학회 2007 한국분말재료학회지 (KPMI) Vol.14 No.1

This study was focused on the optimization of low-pressure ultrasonic spraying process for synthesis of pure ${\gamma}-Fe_2O_3$ nanoparticles. As process variables, pressure in the reactor, precursor concentration, and reaction temperature were changed in order to control the chemical and microstructural properties of iron oxide nanoparticles including crystal phase, mean particle size and particle size distribution. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies revealed that pure ${\gamma}-Fe_2O_3$ nanoparticles with narrow particle size distribution of 5-15 nm were successfully synthesized from iron pentacarbonyl ($Fe(CO)_{5}$) in hexane under 30 mbar with precursor concentrations of 0.1M and 0.2M, at temperatures over $800^{\circ}C$. Also magnetic properties, coercivity ($H_c$) and saturation magnetization ($M_s$) were reported in terms of the microstructure of particles based on the results from vibration sampling magnetometer (VSM).

Low Complexity Decoder for Space-Time Turbo Codes

이창우,Lee Chang-Woo The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation 2006 韓國通信學會論文誌 Vol.31 No.4c

By combining the space-time diversity technique and iterative turbo codes, space-time turbo codes(STTCS) are able to provide powerful error correction capability. However, the multi-path transmission and iterative decoding structure of STTCS make the decoder very complex. In this paper, we propose a low complexity decoder, which can be used to decode STTCS as well as general iterative codes such as turbo codes. The efficient implementation of the backward recursion and the log-likelihood ratio(LLR) update in the proposed algorithm improves the computational efficiency. In addition, if we approximate the calculation of the joint LLR by using the approximate ratio(AR) algorithm, the computational complexity can be reduced even further. A complexity analysis and computer simulations over the Rayleigh fading channel show that the proposed algorithm necessitates less than 40% of the additions required by the conventional Max-Log-MAP algorithm, while providing the same overall performance.

장대도로터널의 자연환기력 예측 사례연구

이창우,김상현,길세원,조우철,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Sang-Hyun,Gil, Se-Won,Cho, Woo-Chul 한국터널지하공간학회 2009 한국터널지하공간학회논문집 Vol.11 No.4

장대터널의 환기 및 방재시스템 설계시 주요한 요소설계인자 중 하나인 자연환기력은 그 중요성에도 불구하고 관련 영향변수들의 상호관계는 정량화가 매우 복잡하여, 자연환기력에 의한 유입 자연풍에 관한 설계기준을 정량적 근거하에서 제시하고 있지 못하다. 최근 발생한 터널화재에 의한 문제 및 터널 이용자에 의한 보다 나은 공기질에 대한 요구 등으로 터널 환기시스템의 최적화가 시급히 필요하며, 따라서 최적화의 주요 설계인자인 자연환기력에 대한 연구가 절실히 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 국내 최장대 도로터널로 계획된 인제터널(연장 10.9 km)을 대상으로 자연환기력의 예측을 목적으로 하였다. 지형적 요인에 의한 외부풍의 풍압에 기인하는 자연환기력의 최대 가능수준을 예측할 수 있는 기압장벽고의 개념을 적용하여 외부풍에 의한 자연환기력을 추정하고 터널내외부 공기 밀도차로 인한 굴뚝효과에 따른 자연환기력을 동시에 분석하였다. One of the key design factors for the ventilation and safety system at extra long tunnel is the airflow velocity induced by the natural ventilation force. Despite of the importance, it has not been widely studied due to the complicated influencing variables and the relationship among them is difficult to quantify. At this moment none of the countries in the world defines its specific value on verified ground. It is also the case in Korea. The recent worldwide disasters by tunnel fires and demands for better air quality inside tunnel by users require the optimization of the tunnel ventilation system. This indicates why the natural ventilation force is necessary to be thoroughly studied. This paper aims at predicting the natural ventilation force at a 11 km-long tunnel which is in the stage of detailed design and will be the longest vehicle tunnel in Korea. The concept of barometric barrier which can provide the maximum possible natural ventilation force generated by the topographic effect on the external wind is applied to estimate the effect of wind pressure and the chimney effect caused by the in and outside temperature difference is also analyzed.

Efficient Method to Implement Max-Log-MAP Algorithm: Parallel SOVA

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation 2008 韓國通信學會論文誌 Vol.33 No.6C

The efficient method to implement the Max-Log-MAP algorithm is proposed by modifying the conventional algorithm. It is called a parallel soft output Viterbi algorithm (SOVA) and the rigorous proof is given for the equivalence between the Max-Log-MAP algorithm and the parallel SOVA. The parallel SOVA is compared with the conventional algorithms and we show that it is an efficient algorithm implementing the modified SOVA in parallel.

Efficient Conversion of DCT Coefficients to H.264 Transform Coefficients Using Lapped Transforms

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation 2007 韓國通信學會論文誌 Vol.32 No.7c

In order to convert MPEG-2 into H.264 format in ubiquitous communication environments, the efficient conversion of the discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients to H.264 transform coefficients is essential. In this paper, two efficient conversion systems are proposed. The proposed systems are composed of two parts. In the first part, the DCT coefficients are denoised using the lapped transform (LT) to reduce the quantization noises and blocking effects. In the second part, the denoised DCT coefficients are converted into the integer transform (IT) coefficients of H.264. Simulation results show that the proposed methods provide visually fine images. Moreover, the computational complexity of the proposed method is reduced compared with the conventional method, since the number of the DCT coefficients, which should be converted, is reduced in the first part.

한국인 아급성 피부 홍반성 루푸스의 임상적 고찰

이창우,김정수 ( Chang Woo Lee,Jung Soo Kim ) 대한피부과학회 1997 대한피부과학회지 Vol.35 No.1

Background: The proportion of patients with subacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus(SCLE) is considered to be 10% among the total LE population in western countries. The morphology of LE-specific skin lesions in SCLE : appear as papulosquamous erythema or annular erythema developing mostly on the exposed areas. Among Korean patients with LE the prevalence and the pattern of cutaneous eruption of SCLE may be different from those patients of western countries. Objective : To obtain the prevalence and the morphological characteristics of cutaneous lesions in Korean patients with SCI E v;ere the main objectives. Methods : With 7 cases of SCLE, clinical dermatologic examinations for the character, the distribution, and the clinical course of those cutaneous lesions, and for t,he extent of systemic symptoms and LE-related laboratory abnormalities in each patient were performed. Results/Coeclusion. The prevalence of SCLE among Korean patients with LE or latent LE was much lower than those seen in Caucasians. The pattern of cutaneous lesions were papular/ papulosquamous erythemas with no (or rare) cases of annular erytherna among those patients diagnosed as SCLE. ~Other cl~inica! features were similar to Caucasian patients. It seems that there are some racial differences in the cutaneous manifestat.ions of LE, which may be relevant to the dissimilarities in immunogenetic backgrounds between different racial groups. (Kor J Dermtol 1997;35(1): 90-95)

$Sr_{0.8}Bi_{2.4}Ta_2O_9/Pt/Si$ 구조의 수소열처리에 의한 강유전특성 열화에 미치는 W-N/Pt 전극효과

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 한국마이크로전자및패키징학회 2004 마이크로전자 및 패키징학회지 Vol.11 No.4

[ $Sr_{0.8}Bi_{2.4}Ta_2O_9(SBT)/Pt$ ] 구조에서 $350^{\circ}C$ 온도로 수소열처리에 의한 강유전특성 열화를 방지하기 위한 W-N/Pt 하부전극의 효과를 살펴보았다. 그 결과 Pt와 SBT 박막사이에 증착된 W-N박막에 의해 수소의 확산을 차단할 수 있었다. Pt 표면에서 수소원자가 화학적인 흡착이 일어나지 않음으로써 흡착된 수소가 SBT 박막내의 산소와 결합하게 됨으로써 oxygen deficiency가 발생하는 것을 막을 수 있었다. W-N 박막이 양호한 확산방지막으로 작용하여 강유전특성의 열화현상을 방지 할 수 있었다. We have investigated the effects of W-N/Pt bottom electrode on the ferroelectric degradation of $Sr_{0.8}Bi_{2.4}Ta_2O_9(SBT)/Pt$ due to hydrogen annealing at $350^{\circ}C$ in $N_2$ gas atmosphere containing $5{\%}\;H_2$ gas for 1hr. As a result, inserting the W-N thin films between SBT and Pt, this W-N thin film prevents hydrogen molecules to be chemisorbed at the Pt electrode surface of at the electrode/ferroelectric interface during hydrogen annealing. These hydrogen atoms can diffuse into the SBT and react with the oxide causing the oxygen deficiency in the SBT film, which will result in the ferroelectric degradation. Experimental results show that W-N thin film is a good diffusion barrier during the hydrogen annealing.

골육종의 생화학적 표지자에 관한 연구

이창우,조우진,조재림,김태승,황건성,Lee, Chang-Woo,Cho, Woo-Jin,Cho, Jae-Lim,Kim, Tai-Seung,Whang, Kuhn-Sung 대한근골격종양학회 2001 대한골관절종양학회지 Vol.7 No.2

목적 : 골육종 환자의 조직과 혈청에서 DNase, RNase, 5'-nucleotidase, alkaline phosphatase 및 amylase 활성도를 측정하여 그 활성도의 변동을 보았고 이들 효소가 골육종의 표지자로 이용될 수 있는지 알아보았다. 대상 및 연구방법 : 골육종 환자의 혈청과 종양조직은 1 2예로부터 얻었으며, 이에 대한 대조조직은 동일 환자의 정상부위에서 채취하였다. 조직 추출액을 얻어서 핵산, 단백함량, 그리고 효소 활성도의 측정에 사용하였다. DEAE-cellulose chromatography에 의해 골육종 조직의 acid DNase, neutral RNase, RNase inhibitor와 단백을 분리하고 그활성도와 단백 함량을 측정하였다. 결과 : 골육종 조직의 acid DNase, RNase, 5'-nucleotidase, alkaline phosphatase 활성도는 유의하게 상승하였고, 효소활성도의 양성율도 높게 나타났다. neutral RNase의 활성도가 특히 높았으며, RNase inhibitor는 neutral RNase와 복합을 이루면서 그 활성도가 유의하게 증가하였다. 혈청 neutral RNase 활성도가 유의하게 상승하였다. DEAE-cellulose column chromatography에 의해 acid DNase는 단일효소로서, 그리고 neutral RNase는 5개의 isozyme으로 분리되었다. 결론 : 이들 효소의 병용이 골육종의 생화학적 표지자로서 이용될 수 있을 가능성을 시사하였다. 또한 혈청 neutral RNase활성도의 측정이 골육종의 생화학적 표지자로서의 역할을 시사하였다. acid DNase와 neutral RNase가 골육종의 발생과 억제과정에 작용하고 있을 가능성을 시사하였다. Purpose : To investigate biochemical markers for osteosarcoma, activities of deoxyribocuclease(DNase), ribonuclease(RNase), 5'-nucleotidase, alkaline phosphatase and amylase were determined in the osteosarcoma tissue and serum of patients with osteosarcoma. Also studied were DNase, RNase in osteosarcoma tissue, isolating the enzymes from the sarcoma tissue and investigating the sarcoma specific enzymes. Materials and Methods : The experimental tissue and serum were obtained from twelve patients with osteosarcoma. The control group were obtained from the normal healthy tissue of the same patients. The tissue were centrifugalized to obtain extracts. The extracts were analized for the estimation of nucleic acid, protein contents and enzyme activities. And then each enzymes were isolated and analized by DEAE-cellulose chromatography and estimated for activities. Result : Activities of acid DNase, RNase, 5'-nucleotidase and alkaline phosphatase were significantly increased in osteosarcoma tissue. Neutral RNase in osteosarcoma tissue was shown to bo highly active, exhibiting secretory form of RNase inhibitor associated with the RNase was also increased. In the serum of patients with osteosarcoma, RNase activity was significantly increased. DEAE-cellulose column chromatographical analysis revealed that acid DNase was isolated as a single enzyme and neutral RNase as five isozymes in osteosarcoma tissue. Conclusion : The results indicated that combination of these enzymes could be used as markers for osteosarcoma. The results indicated that acid DNase and neutral RNase might play a role in genesis of sarcoma and suppression of sarcoma.

옥시 토신과 부교감신경흥분제(副交感神經興奮劑)가 돼지의 사산(死産)에 미치는 영향(影響)

이창우,Lee, Chang Woo 대한수의학회 1977 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.17 No.1

To study the effects of oxytocin and three parasympathomimetic drugs such as neostigmine, bethanechol, and pilocarpine in reduction of interval between birth and incidence of intrapartum stillborn pigs, 213, sows and gilts which had been kept under the same condition, were randomly allotted to 4 treatment and one control groups. The side reactions of three parasympathomimetic drug were also examined. The results obtained were summarized as followings. 1. Parasympathomimetic-treated groups revealed tendence to shorter interval between birth than oxytocin-treated or control groups. 2. Stillbirth rate per litter was significantly less (p<0.01) in the parasympathomimetic-treated groups than in the oxytocin-treated or control groups. 3. Moderate to severe salivation and vomiting were found in many clams of the pilocarpine-treated and bethanecol-treated groups. The neostigmine-treated group showed nearly no side reaction and neostigmine found to the safest among three parasympathomimetic drugs.