http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
천병권,이민원 호남대학교 1998 호남대학교 학술논문집 Vol.19 No.1
A demand forecast for a Kwangju City Logistics Complex has been made in this paper. A forecasted shipments quantity is utilized to forecast industrial demands of the complex for the years 1999 and 2003, respectively. The forecasted size of the logistics complex is 317,000 pyung in 1999 and 613,000 pyung in 2003. We also analyze anticipated a cargo volume demand to determine how large the complex should be in order to satisfy such a demand. The size of the complex varies according to the utilization rate of the complex. For instance, a utilization rate of 25% will mandate a logistics complex of 362,000 pyung in 1999 and 540,000 pyung 2003. Forecasting future demand of the complex using either the shipments model or the cargo volume analysis model is not error-free. Demand forecasting is not a totally precise science. In an effort to make our predictions more reliable we must average the results of the two methods. Such calcuations require that 340,000 pyung in 1999 and 540,000 pyung in 2003 be allocated for the project, with a percentile distribution of 30% for facilities, 31% for the building lot area and 39% for supplementary facilities. In addition to forecasting the size of a logistics complex we also forecast the size of a depot: that is, 120,000 pyung in 1999, 160,000 pyung in 2003 for total area and 25,000 pyung in 1999, 30,000 pyung in 2003 for freight terminal and 70,000 pyung in the period for the wholesale center.