연근해어업 어선감척사업으로 인한 생산성 및 투자 효과에 관한 연구

최종두 한국해양과학기술원 2014 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.36 No.4

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value and productivity achieved through a reduction in fishing vessels engaged in coastal and offshore fisheries. We found that the value of increasing catch by types in offshore and coastal fisheries was about 17,338 billion won. To examine the economic value, a cost-benefit analysis was applied. This is based on the total cost of vessel reduction (4,576 billion won) assumed to be invested equally each year for five years. BCR and NPV with a discount rate (5.5%) were used to compare the profit of fishery activities in offshore and coastal areas. The model results showed that the NPV and BCR in offshore and coastal fisheries was 5,522 billion won and 2.340 respectively.

최적생산시기 결정을 위한 의사결정전략:추계적 과정과 순현재가치 접근

최종두 한국경영과학회 2007 한국경영과학회지 Vol.32 No.1

In this paper, the optimal decision making strategy for resource management is viewed in terms of a combined strategy of planting and producing time. A model which can be used to determine the optimal management strategy is developed, and focuses on how to design the operation of a Markov chain so as to optimize its performance. This study estimated a dynamic stochastic model to compare alternative production style and used the net present value of returns to evaluate the scenarios. The managers in this study may be able to increase economic returns by delaying produce in order to market larger, more valuable commodities.

근해어업경영을 위한 기술효율성분석

최종두 한국해양과학기술원 2008 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.30 No.4

This paper examines measures of technical efficiency in off-shore fishery based on a frontier production function model of the Cobb-Douglas type. Technical efficiency ranges between 57.13 and 98.62 percent. The results suggest that the highest TE in the industry is the trawl. Also, this analysis shows that Busan's Danish seine fishery has a maximum TE. Angling in Gangwon has a minimum TE. Empirical measures of technical efficiency in this study can be useful in analyzing the potential effects of policies designed to deal with the current fishery industry. This paper examines measures of technical efficiency in off-shore fishery based on a frontier production function model of the Cobb-Douglas type. Technical efficiency ranges between 57.13 and 98.62 percent. The results suggest that the highest TE in the industry is the trawl. Also, this analysis shows that Busan's Danish seine fishery has a maximum TE. Angling in Gangwon has a minimum TE. Empirical measures of technical efficiency in this study can be useful in analyzing the potential effects of policies designed to deal with the current fishery industry.

기후변화가 대형선망 고등어 어업의 최적탄소배출량에 미치는 영향분석

최종두 한국해양과학기술원 2017 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.39 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the optimal CO2 emission in the maximum economic yield (MEY), maximum sustainable yield (MSY), and open access (OA) using a bioeconomic model. The results are as follows; in the case of EMEY, EMSY, and EOA levels, CO2 emissions are estimated at 150,704,746CO2/kg, 352,211,193CO2/kg, and 301,409,492CO2/kg respectively. We show that the EMEY is more efficient than the other levels. That is, the level of EMEY signifies the optimal economic fishing usage as the most economically efficient usage for large purse seine fishery catching mackerel species. The emission of CO2 in EMEY is the lowest level. Also, the impacts of climate changes such as ocean temperature increase, ocean acidification, and the combined impact thereof show that the biomass of mackerel decreases.

협조적 게임이론을 이용한 국가 간 수산자원관리에 관한 연구

최종두,조정희 한국해양과학기술원 2008 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.30 No.2

This study demonstrates that cooperative management can provide more benefits than non-cooperative management for Korea and Japan fishery. We have studied one management strategy, namely, fishing under joint maximization of net benefits in coastal waters of two countries, using a cooperative game theory. The present net return under non-cooperation amounts to 420,255 million won. However, if two countries cooperate one with another, this figure can get to 2,636,565 million won. We consider this to be an important conclusion as close management relationships have developed between the two countries since the establishment of the EEZ in 1996. The results of the study can also help balance resource conservation and the appropriate catch quota in each country.

철학의 역할

최종두 대한철학회 2006 哲學硏究 Vol.100 No.-

개별여행비용법을 통한 갯벌관광객의 방문편익 추정모형에 대한 실증비교분석

최종두 한국기업경영학회 2014 기업경영연구 Vol.21 No.6

Tidal flat has various functions such as biodiversity, reduction of greenhouse gas, etc. The paper is to estimate the benefits that visitors would receive by visiting the tide flat using individual travel cost which is one of non-market good valuation methods. For estimating consumer surplus, we used count data models. Count data econometric techniques have been applied with increasing frequency to travel cost models of recreation demand. That is, count data models are intuitively appealing for recreational demand because they deal with non-negative integer valued dependent variables. For recreation with tidal travel, the number of trips is a non-negative integer. The integer characteristic is less important than the non-negative range of the variable. The count data model specifies the quantity demanded, trips, as a random nin-negative integer, with a mean that is dependent on exogenous regressors. For the Poisson, the functional form for expected demand is typically exponential. Shaw(1988) developed a Poisson model(PM) that corrected for problems that corrected for problems associated with samples drawn from on-site recreational surveys. Also, the sample for survey is truncated because it does not include non-users. This study has extended the application of count models to include truncated Poisson model(TPM). A negative binomial model(NBM) and truncated negative binomial model(TNBM) have not extended that there are no exist the over-dispersion problem. Shin(2012) applied count models to natural recreation site focusing on the Yeongsan river in korea, while Eom(2008) applied this class of model to valuing of leisure time revealed through recreation demand for environmental resources. None of these papers developed for tidal tourists. The primary data used in this study came from two sources: an on-site survey of visitors in Taean-gun and data of the tideland experience tourism association in Taean-gun. The visiting survey was used to obtain individual characteristics. These characteristics included visitors’ information such as visitors’ knowledge, income, and family, etc. Also, the association’s data provided information about the total number of visitors for the tideland experience tourism association in Taean-gun between 2010 and 2012. The survey was administered to visitors at a sample of randomly chosen visiting beaches during the summer of 2013, Surveying began August and ended October 2013. In total 105 surveys were administered. A key point of analysis is the demonstration that any count data model provides both per trip welfare measures and the quantity demanded measures that are needed to find total surplus for visiting tidal flats. The findings of the study are as follows. First, four different specifications of the model were studied theoretically using maximum-likelihood regression. The coefficient on in the possion model(PM) is zero suggesting that both BM and NBM are inappropriate. There is no exist the over-dispersion problem. The PM and TPM was applied to estimate the demand of tideland experience tourism and consumer surplus. The Poisson likelihood function is straightforward. We observe the number of tidal trips each individual takes, and then use equation to write the provability of observing that number of trips. Second, TPM was statistically more suitable than the other models. That is, the analysis suggests that the TPM is more preferred than PM. All parameters for TPM estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. Third, benefit measures associated with the TPM is calculated using the estimated parameter on the trip cost(). The consumer surplus measure for a person who takes a single trip is . Consumer surplus for the average person in the population is calculated as . The TPM suggests an per trip surplus which is per consumer surplus for one-visit in the tideland experience tourism, 17,825won. We can also compute the consumer surplus for the per consumer surplus i... 갯벌은 생물다양성, 홍수조절, 기후변화에 의한 온실가스 저감 등 다양한 기능을 수행하고 있으며, 경제적으로도 지역경제의 수익창출과 국민들에 대한 갯벌체험 및 관광수요를 충족시키는 역할을 하고 있다. 본 연구는 개별여행비용법을 이용하여 갯벌체험 및 관광을 하는 방문객에 대한 방문편익을 추정하였다. 여행방문객의 방문속성을 분석하기 위하여 가산자료모형 중 개별여행비용법을 이용하였으며, 실증적인 수요모형을 추정하고 소비자 잉여 및 경제적 가치를 추정하였다. 분석대상은 서해의 태안군 지역이며, 심층면접조사방식을 이용하였으며, 구체적인 분석과정 및 결과를 살펴보면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 분석모형으로 포아송모형(Poisson Model, PM), 음이항모형(Negative Binomial, NB), 절단된 포아송모형(Truncated Poisson Model, TPM), 절단된 음이항모형(Truncated Negative Binomial, TNB)에 대한 이론적 접근과 응용을 실시하였다. 둘째, 분석결과 추정계수들은 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났으며, 경제이론에도 부합되는 결과를 도출하였다. 셋째, 분석자료에 대한 과산포(overdispersion)현상은 발견되지 않았으며, 모형적합도검정을 통하여 절단된 포아송모형이 적정모형으로 선정되었다. 넷째, 서해 태안군 지역내 갯벌관광활동의 경제적가치를 추정하기 위하여 관광객의 연평균 방문횟수와 최적모형으로 선정된 절단된포아송모형(TPM)으로 분석한 결과 1인당 1회 방문 편익은 17,825원으로 나타났고, 1인당 연간 방문 편익은 22,692원으로 추정되었다. 다섯째, 갯벌체험 및 관광을 목적으로 태안군 지역을 방문하는 전체 관광객은 연평균 231,438명으로 해당 방문객으로 인한 연간 총 경제적 가치는 5,251,776,684원으로 도출되어 지역경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다.

The Choice of an Optimal Growth Function Considering Environmental Factors and Production Style

최종두 한국환경경제학회 2004 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.13 No.4

This paper examined the statistical goodness-of-fit tests for biological growth model in bioeconomic analysis. Some authors estimated usually growth function for fish in the world. However, few studies have estimated growth equations for the bivalve species. Thus, this paper studied the common functional forms of fitting growth equations for cham scallops considering environmental factors and production styles. The following functional forms are considered: linear, log-reciprocal, double log, polynomial and linear with interactions. Results of fitting these various functional forms with real data are compared and evaluated using standard statistical goodness-of-fit tests. Results also indicate that log-reciprocal function is statistically the best fit to the real data. Therefore, the log-reciprocal function is decided the best function describing cham scallop biological growth and hence might be useful for economic evaluation(i.e., optimal harvesting time). 본 연구는 생물경제학(bioeconomics)분석에 있어서 중요한 위치를 차지하는 생물학적 성장모델에 대한 계량적 접근을 시도하였다. 세계적으로 어류에 관한 생물학적 성장모델은 여러 연구자들에 의해 추정된 바 있으나, 갑각류나 패류와 관련된 적정 성장함수의 추정은 어류에 비해 크게 연구되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 이에 몇몇 연구자들에 의해 사용된 공통된 성장함수들(Linear, Log reciprocal, Double log, Polynomial, Linear with Interactions)을 생산방식과 지역별 환경요인을 감안하여 한국 참가리비(Patinopecten yessoensis)의 성장을 추정하는 데 응용해 보았으며, 가장 적절한 모델은 계량적 분석을 통하여 도출하였다. 분석결과 Log reciprocal 형태의 성장함수가 참가리비류에 가장 적합한 모델로 선정되었으며, 본 결과는 경영자의 최적 생산시기를 결정하는 데 이용되는 생물경제학 모델에 유용하게 응용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

기후변화로 인한 수온상승이 굴양식 본양성 생산방식의 경제성에 미치는 영향분석

최종두,최영준 한국해양과학기술원 2014 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.36 No.2

This study analysed the economic feasibility per hectare of grow out phase production of Oyster farming by rising water temperature in Ocean. Elevated Water temperature by climate change had a bad influence for oyster production and economic feasibility. In the case of production units, the total output of oyster decreases from 213,840 to 205,594 units. Using cost-benefit analysis with discounting rates (5.5%), we estimated the net present value (NPV) and benefit cost ratio (BCR) until 2100 years. The model results showed that the NPV without water temperature rise was 1,565,619,893 won and the NPV with water temperature rise was 1,540,493,059 won. Also, BCR estimated that the former was 2.095 better than the latter was 2.077. To summarise, the economic effect per hectare of water temperature rise in ocean did the damage to the economic loss about 25,126,834 won.

기후변화요인이 수산업의 탄소배출량에 미치는 영향분석 - 해양수온상승, 해양산성화, 복합효과 중심으로-

최종두 국제지역학회 2017 국제지역학회 춘계학술대회 Vol.2017 No.-