동아시아 해양력 전이와 지역질서

김우상(Kim Woosang),김현일(Kim Hyun-il) 한국국제정치학회 2003 國際政治論叢 Vol.43 No.4

세력전이와 동아시아 안보질서에 관한 경험적 연구

김우상(Woosang Kim) 한국정치학회 2002 한국정치학회보 Vol.35 No.4

본 연구에서는 1860년부터 1993년까지의 경험적 연구를 통하여 동아시아 지역국가들과 주변 강대국들 간에 일어날 수 있는 분쟁 가능성에 대해서 세력전이 이론적 시각에서 분석하였다. 리로지트 모델을 사용하여 얻은 본 연구의 경험적 연구 결과는 국제정치 현상을 이해하는 데 고려해야 할 세 가지 요소인 기회, 의지 및 인식과 오인과 관련된 변수들의 중요성을 재확인시켜 준다. 동맹관계를 고려한 후, 세력전이가 일어날 때 나타나는 국가들 간의 국력 균형, 국가들 간의 체제 내 질서에 대한 불만족도, 국력 증대 속도의 차이와 관련된 가설들이 경험적으로 검증되었다. 본 연구의 결과에 의하면, 21세기 동아시아 지역의 국력분포의 변화, 동맹관계 등이 동아시아 지역질서의 안정과 평화를 설명하고 예측하는 데 핵심적인 변수로 간주되어진다. ??In this research I examine the likelihood of war in East Asia from the mid-nineteenth century to the present to see if the power transition theoretical argument holds for the conflicts occurring in East Asia. Findings of this study show that conflicts in East Asia occur under the same general conditions that lead to war in the international system. That is, power transitions heighten the risk of war in the regional, as well as the global context. Contrary to the original power transition argument, I also show that the role of alliances is crucial to mitigating or militating the risk of war.

북한의 허세부리기 게임과 미국의 싸움꾼 게임

김우상(Woosang Kim),황세희(Se-Hee Hwang),김재홍(Jaehong Kim) 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2006 동서연구 Vol.18 No.1

본 연구는 북한과 미국 간의 두 차례에 걸친 북핵 위기상황을 ‘허세부리기’ 게임 (called bluff game)과 ‘싸움꾼’ 게임(bully game)으로 분석한다. 이러한 틀을 통해 분석해본 결과, 제 2차 북핵 위기의 전개방향을 가름할 가장 중요한 요인은 미국의 대북 정책의 강경대응 수준, 북한이 인식하는 미국의 대북 정책의 강경 정도라고 할 수 있다. 제 1차 북핵위기 때 클린턴 미국 행정부는 대북 강경정책을 추진할 의지가 없음을 북한이 인식할 수 있을 정도로 행동했다. 그반면, 제 2차 북핵 위기가 시작된 이래 부시 행정부의 일련의 대북 정책들은 북한 김정일 정권에게 위협으로 인식되기에 충분할 정도로 강경한 수준이다. 국제정치의 특성이 무정부체제 하의 불확 실성에 있듯이, 현재 북한이 미국의 강경정 책을 어느 정도 수준까지 실질적 위협으로 인식하고 있는지는 정확히 판단하기는 어렵 다. 그러나 한 가지 확실한 점은 북한은 미국 과의 싸움꾼 게임보다는 교착게임을 더 원한다는 것이다. 제 2차 북핵 위기는 김정일 정권이 체제생존에 직접적인 위협을 느끼기 직전까지는 미국의 대북 강경책에 강경한 자세로 맞대응하는 교착게임의 형태로 유지될 가능성이 높다. 북한은 현재의 교착게임을 싸움꾼 게임으로 변형시킬 수 있는 어떠한 가능성도 배제하려고 할 것이다. 본 연구의 결과로 예측할 경우, 김정일 정권이 핵실 험을 감행할 가능성은 아주 낮다. 북한의 핵실험이야말로 제 2차 위기를 교착게임에서 미국 주도의 싸움꾼 게임을 변형시킬 수 있는 가능성을 열러주는 계기가 될 수 있음을 김정일 정권은 잘 인식하고 있기 때문이다. This study tries to analyze North Korea’s nuclear crises by using two different types of simultaneous game, that is, the ‘called bluff game’ and the ‘bully game.’ The result of this analysis reveals that the most important factor that determines the future prospect of current North Korea’s nuclear crisis is the level of the United State’s will to punish North Korea if North Korea insists on developing nuclear weapons. To be more specific, the level of the United States’ strong will to punish that is ‘perceived’ by North Korea is most critical factor for this matter. It is considerably up to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il whether he perceives the United State’s current warning signs as mere bluffing or as serious threat to his regime survival. As long as Kim Jong Il perceives that the U.S. hawkish position does not seriously threaten his regime survival, he will take hawkish measure as a response. In this case, the 2nd North Korean nuclear crisis will be deadlocked. However, Kim will never try to transform this game of deadlock into the U.S.-led bully game. That is, Kim regime will not carry out the nuclear test since Kim understands that any nuclear test will lead this 2nd crisis to the U.S.-led bully game situation.

대한민국의 중견국 공공외교

김우상(Woosang Kim) 한국정치정보학회 2013 정치정보연구 Vol.16 No.1

21세기 대한민국은 최근 날로 강화되고 있는 소프트 파워를 최대한 활용하여 성공적인 공공외교를 추진할 수 있어야 한다. 대한민국의 공공외교를 성공적으로 수행하기 위한 가장 효과적인 방안 중 하나가 바로 중견국 리더십을 발휘하는 것이다. 외교 스타일과 국력에 따라 중견국을 정의할 수 있지만, 대한민국은 ‘일반적 중견국’이 아니라 ‘중추적 중견국’ 역할을 수행할 수 있다. 인권, 인도적 지원, 지속가능한 발전, 기후변화, 녹색성장, 자연재해, 해적퇴치, 평화유지 등 인간안보와 관련된 인도주의적, 윤리적, 헌신적, 이타적, 평화애호적인 이슈에서 주도적 역할을 수행하는 것 자체가 바로 중추적 중견국으로서 성공적인 공공외교를 추진하는 것이다. 일반 대중 역시 각자 국민 외교관의 역할을 잘 수행할 수 있을 때 지구촌에서 많은 지한파, 친한파를 양성하는 계기를 마련할 수 있을 것이다. The Republic of Korea in the 21st century has to carry out successful public diplomacy with recently strengthened soft power. In fact, one of the best ways of conducting successful public diplomacy is to play the ‘pivotal middle power’ role in the global society. Based on the diplomatic style and the national capability, Korea must be one of the pivotal middle powers, not just an ordinary middle power. To take the leadership on such human security issues as human rights, humanitarian assistance, sustainable development, climate change, green growth, natural disaster, anti-piracy, peace-keeping is to carry out the successful public diplomacy as a pivotal middle power. Ordinary citizen should also be prepared to play the successful civic diplomat"s role so that Korea can make as many friends of Korea around the world.

BIM 활용 건축-엔지니어링간 협업지원시스템 필수기능도출에 관한 연구

김우상(Kim, Woosang),박문서(Park, Moonseo),이현수(Lee, Hyun-Soo),이진강(Lee, Jingang),이광표(Lee, Kwang-Pyo) 대한건축학회 2015 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.31 No.2

In a construction project, there are numerous information across various professional specialists. In particular, as design process requires constant communication among a variety engineering participants, effective collaboration for decision making has a high influence on productivity. BIM (Building Information Modeling) is adopted globally to improve the productivity of the collaboration. However, BIM causes a fundamental change in the way participants interact with each other. Currently, it is not easy for individuals to utilize the current BIM collaboration systems due to skeptical opinion and difficulties of the systems. Therefore, the collaboration system should be developed by considering optimized features, and this paper defines essential features of architecture-engineering design collaboration system to improve BIM collaboration environment. In order to conduct this research, (1) the current BIM collaboration systems are investigated and analyzed in depth and (2) the essential functions for the design collaboration between the architects and engineers within the BIM environment are defined by conducting delphi survey and focus group interview. The result of this research can contribute to provide the basis for improving BIM based collaboration environment.

러시아의 한반도 정책변화: 한국의 대응

김우상(KIM Woosang) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2001 신아세아 Vol.8 No.2

DI 디젤기관에서 함산소연료(EGBE)와 EGR의 유용성에 관한 실험적 연구

최승훈(Seunghun Choi),황윤택(Yuntaig Hwang),김우상(Woosang Kim),오영택(Youngtaig Oh) 대한기계학회 2003 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2003 No.4

In this paper, the effect of oxygen component in fuel on the exhaust emissions has been investigated for a direct injection diesel engine. It was tested to estimate change of engine performance and exhaust emission characteristics for the commercial diesel fuel and oxygenated blended fuel which has seven kinds of mixed ratio. And, the effects of exhaust gas recircalation (EGR) on the characteristics of NOx emission have been investigated. Ethylene glycol mono-n-butyl ether)(EGBE) contains oxygen component 27% in itself, and it is a king of effective oxygenated fuel of mono-ether group that the smoke emission of EGBE blended fuel is reduced remarkably compared with commercial diesel fuel. that is, it can supply oxygen component sufficiently at higher loads and speeds in a diesel engine. It was found that simultaneous reduction of smoke and NOx was achieved with oxygenated fuel and cooled EGR method.

디젤기관에서 디에테르계 연료의 성상변화와 EGR에 의한 매연과 NOx의 동시저감에 관한 실험적 연구

최승훈(Seunghun Choi),황윤택(Yuntaig Hwang),김우상(Woosang Kim),오영택(Youngtaig oh),박상민(Sangmin park) 한국자동차공학회 2003 한국자동차공학회 춘 추계 학술대회 논문집 Vol.- No.-

The potential possibility of oxygenated fuel for di-ether group oxygenated additives such as Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and diethylene glycol dimethyl ether(DGM) were investigated for the sake of exhausted smoke reduction from diesel engine. They include oxygen content approximately from 18% to 36%, it is a kind of oxygenated fuel that the smoke emission of them is reduced remarkably compared with commercial diesel fuel, that is, it can supply oxygen component sufficiently at high loads and speeds in a diesel engine. NOx emission was decreased by exhaust gas recirculation(EGR) method which was applied EGR rate from 5% to 30%. And, simultaneous reduction of smoke and NOx was achieved with combination of EGR and fuel property alteration.<br/>

함산소제 첨가 및 EGR의 조합에 의한 배기배출물 특성에 관한 실험적 연구

최승훈(Seunghun Choi),황윤택(Yuntaig Hwang),김우상(Woosang Kim),오영택(Youngtaig Oh) 한국자동차공학회 2003 한국자동차공학회 지부 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2003 No.5

In this paper, the effects of oxygen component in oxygenated blended fuels on the exhaust emissions have been investigated for direct injection diesel engine. It tested to estimate changes of engine performance and exhaust emission characteristics for the commercial diesel fuel and oxygenated blended fuels which have four kinds of fuel and various mixed rates. And, the effects of exhaust gas recirculation(EGR) on the characteristics of NOx emission and brake specific fuel consumption rate also have been investigated. The results of this study show that simultaneous reduction of smoke and NOx emission was achieved with oxygenated blended fuels and cooled EGR method.<br/> <br/> <br/>

미·중 대결구도하 한국의 안보전략

김우상(金宇祥) 한국전략문제연구소 2001 전략연구 Vol.8 No.2

In this paper, I have speculated the future regional security structure based on the 'China factor' and the 'America factor.' All four scenarios seem plausible. First of all, the power transition scenario is very likely to become the reality in the 21st century. To prevent major war between the PRC and the U.S. which could easily escalate to the World War Ⅲ and to maintain regional stability in the 21st century, therefore, the current hegemonic power should make every effort to keep preponderance in power over any potential challenger. For the United States one way of managing to maintain preponderance in power is to keep status quo in its alliance policy, i.e., to maintain its military ties with the European allies through North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO), with Japan, and with Korea. That is, the United States - Japan and the U.S. - Korea alliance ties are very important for the regional stability. As long as the United States keeps its ties both with Japan and with Korea, any potential challenger including China must be uneasy about challenging the United States and its allies. So far as Japan keeps its ties with the U.S., one of the potential challengers, Russia, will be in no position to challenge the U.S. - Japan alliance, either. South Korea or unified Korea will be indispensable for both the United States and Japan's security structure in the 21st century. Unified Korea alone may not have enough capabilities to pause any threat against any neighboring country. However, by allying with the U.S. unified Korea will playa crucial role on suppressing the possibility of the advent of the non-democratic regional hegemon and thus keeping democratic institutions in the region. Maintaining and spreading democracy in the region are two of the most important goals of the United States and Japan. So, for both countries the U. S. alliance ties with Korea even after Korea is unified match very well with their national interests. In case the U.S. decides to bandwagon to the rising revisionist China, Korea is highly likely to bandwagon to the PRC as well The U.S. policy of isolationism and of bandwagoning to the PRC will then encourage Japan's militarism and this kind of situation could lead to regional hegemonic war between the PRC and Japan. So, to prevent this kind of scenario from becoming the reality, Japan will need strong ties both with the U.S. and with Korea. If the PRC fails to overtake the U.S. in its national capabilities, then the hegemonic stability scenario is most likely to become the reality. In this case, the U.S. will be very likely to maintain the status quo in its alliance policy. Although keeping Japan as its only regional ally may be enough for its regional security structure, the U.S. will be better off not severing ties with Korea because in three other scenarios Korea will always be the strategically important partner for the U.S. In case China fails to catch up with the U.S. and the U.S. decides to take the policy of splendid isolation in the region, Korea's role will become very important. Surrounded by the balance of power system among three regional powers - the PRC, Japan and Russia, and the U.S. which will play the role of the balancer, Korea may remain as a buffer state. Or Korea could even play the role of the pivotal partner. Theoretically, the balance of power system is a very unstable system. That is, although there is no war among competing powers at the moment a slight tip of the balance among them would lead to major conflict. So, all these powers would be interested in having good relations with relatively weak Korea. In any coalition formation, the greater the necessity to include a player in a coalition in order to make it a winning one, the greater that players pivotal role. Despite the pivotal players relatively small resource base, the player is as valuable a member of a coalition as any other major power member and can rationally demand a payoff as big as any other major power member might demand. In the balance of power scenario, Korea may be able to play the role of the pivotal partner in the Northeast Asian security structure. The Korean peninsula is geopolitically and strategically important for all the neighboring major powers including the U.S. None of them will be willing to let any other take control over the peninsula. So, Korea is in a good position to play the role of pivotal partner. Not only three neighboring powers - Japan, China, and Russia, but also the U.S. will be very much interested in maintaining strong ties with Korea in the balance of power situation. For the U.S. which takes the policy of splendid isolation keeping ties only with Korea may be the best way for itself to be efficiently and minimally involved with the regional politics and to secure its national interests in the region without directly involved with any major powers in the region. What about Korea's interest of maintaining its alliance ties only with the United States? First of all, declaring neutrality is not a good idea at all. Geopolitically, neutral Korea does not seem to be plausible. It is not a good strategy, either. Why take the passive position while Korea could play an active role of pivotal partner? Forming a bilateral alliance with any neighboring country is not a good idea for Korea, either. Historically speaking, contiguous countries, whether they are allies or not, used to be involved in the territorial disputes. Therefore, when relatively weaker Korea allies with a neighboring great power, Korea may one day end up losing a part of its territory through territorial disputes or war with the neighboring great power. So, if Korea had to form a bilateral alliance, the partner should at least satisfy the following three criteria: first, it should be a country far away from this region or at least a country that does not share border with Korea. Second, that country must have strong national interests in the region so that in case of emergency that country is willing to fight in support of Korea. Third, that country must be strong enough to mobilize its troop in a short period of time to the region. At this moment, the country that satisfies these criteria must be the United States. I also believe that three countries, Korea, the United States, and Japan have enough reasons to support the existing alliance relations. As I have explained above, in the power transition scenario, the U.S. need Japan and Korea. In the bandwagoning scenario, Japan will desperately need the U.S. and Korea as its alliance partners. In the balance of power scenario, both the U.S. and Japan will need strong ties with Korea while Korea will need the U.S. support. In the hegemonic stability scenario, Korea will be better off maintaining the status quo alliance relations. In sum, all these scenarios suggest that the U.S. - Japan and the U.S. - Korea military alliance should be the main framework for the 21st century security order in Northeast Asia. Finally, Korea, together with the United States and Japan, must make every effort to induce China to open up so that China can adopt a more democratic and free-market oriented system. As long as China becomes more democratic, even when the power transition situation occurs between China and the United States and its allies, the transition period can be peaceful.