도심형 공공임대주택의 사업타당성 분석

김옥연,김용태,김용순,Kim, Ok-Yeon,Kim, Yong-Tai,Kim, Yong-Soon 한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원 2015 LHI journal of land, housing, and urban affairs Vol.6 No.3

이 연구의 목적은 도심 내 젊은 주거취약계층을 위한 도심형 공공임대주택의 사업타당성을 분석하는 것이다. 도심형 공공임대주택은 높은 지가와 복잡한 권리관계로 인해 사업추진에 어려움이 많으므로 저렴한 택지 확보와 함께 사업비 절감방안이 강구되어야 한다. 이를 위해 택지확보 및 사업방식을 고려하여 사업유형을 구분하였고, 10개 사례지역에 대해 사업타당성을 분석하였다. 각 사례지역의 설계안에 기초하여 현금지출과 수입을 산출하였고, 지가상승률, 임대료시세반영률, 임대료상승률, 기금이자율 등 기준정보를 조합한 16개 시나리오에 대하여 현금흐름을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 국공유지 임차형은 사업초기 토지매입비 절감은 가능하나, 청산시점에서 토지를 정부에 귀속시켜야 하므로 전체 NVP가 낮아진다. 사유지 매입형은 토지를 매입하므로 초기 사업비는 많이 소요되나, 청산단계에서 토지 처분으로 인해 NPV가 향상되는 효과가 있다. 이러한 현상을 볼 때 지가가 낮은 지역에서는 임차방식으로 사업을 추진하고, 지가가 높은 지역에서는 매입방식으로 사업을 추진하는 것이 사업성 개선에 유리하다. 사업성에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 요소는 지가상승률과 임대료 시세반영률이며, 임대료 시세반영률은 조정 가능한 변수이다. 그러나 이를 상승시키면 세입자 부담이 증가하므로 기금이자율 조정이 바람직한 것으로 판단된다. Korean government has launched a new public rental housing policy for younger generation suffering from instable housing conditions in CBD area. This paper is to analyze the financial feasibility of urban public rental housing projects, based on its cash flows. Urban rental housing projects should find out the way to reduce costs and to secure cheap land, because of the high land price in CBD area and complex relationship of legal rights. Project types are categorized by the land acquisition method and district characteristics. For 10 sample projects, financial feasibility was analyzed. Cash flows were calculated on the design plan and 16 scenarios were made by combining 4 important variables. The variables are increase rate of land price, increase rate of monthly rents, ratio of public and market rents, and the interest rate of National Housing Fund. The findings are as follows. Government land rent-type can reduce initial costs because it is not necessary to buy land. However, total NPV is lowered at the time of liquidation due to the land return. Private land acquisition-type require more initial costs. But the NPV at liquidation time increases with land disposal. To improve financial feasibility, acquisition-type should be preferred in high land-price area and rent-type should be preferred in low land-price area. Among influencing variables, the rate of increase in land price and the ratio of public and market rents turned out to be the most important. Although the ratio of public and market rents can be controllable, high ratio will cause the burden of tenants. Therefore, interest rate adjustment of National Housing Fund is more desirable.

주상복합건물의 성장관리형 도시재생 효과에 관한 연구

김옥연,한용석,이천기,Kim, Ok-Yeon,Han, Yong-Suk,Lee, Chon-Ki 한국주거학회 2010 한국주거학회 논문집 Vol.21 No.4

In the urban area where rapid suburbanization trend continues, the role of mixed use building is controversial. It is argued that the mixed use building is an effective tool to recover residential function of urban core(urban regeneration). It is also argued that the building is a cause of serious urban problems, such as congestion, public service shortages. The fundamental purpose of this study is to examine the role of mixed use building in terms of urban growth management in Seoul. For this purpose, data of mixed use building from 1981 to 2007 are collected and analysed. The results show that most of mixed use buildings are located in either sub-centers or population losing areas, rather than traditional urban core. Therefore, it is hard to accept that the two controversial arguments. The mixed use building noncore areas in most cases. However, it dose help to increase population inflow in non-core areas. it is difficult to accept the public service assertion which states that super-high rise mixed use building causes public service congestion, because the building is built in population losing or demand decreasing area. Based on these findings this study suggests some policy alternatives such as urban service boundary or concurrency program to management urban growth.

APCC 태풍 활동 계절 예측 시스템 구축현황 및 계획

김옥연,정일원,유진호,Kim, Ok-Yeon,Jeong, Il-Won,Yu, Jin-Ho 한국수자원학회 2013 물과 미래(한국수자원학회지) Vol.46 No.10

인구사회구조 변화 대응하는 주택정책과 새로운 주택유형 모색

김옥연,Kim, Ok-Yeon 한국주거학회 2010 住居 Vol.10 No.-

역세권 유형별 특성에 의한 서울시 도시개발관리 방향 연구 : 서울시 지하철 역세권을 중심으로

김옥연,이주형,Kim, Ok-Yeon,Lee, Joo-Hyung 한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원 2011 LHI journal of land, housing, and urban affairs Vol.2 No.4

역세권 주택공급시 현재 시행되고 있는 뉴타운 사업과 같이 동시다발적으로 구역지정되어 발생되는 도시문제를 최소화하고자, 서울시 도시내부에 분포하는 250개 역세권을 유형화하여 유형별 특성을 분석하고, 유형별로 개발시기를 비롯한 도시개발관리 기준을 수립하여 차별적 도시관리 방안을 제안하였다. 역세권 특성을 분석하기 위한 객관적 지표로서 선행연구(AHP분석)에서 제시된 주택개발잠재력 지표를 활용하여 서울시 250개 역세권에 대하여 주택개발잠재력을 평가하였으며, 도출된 주택개발잠재력 평가결과를 이용하여 역세권을 5개의 그룹으로 유형화하고, 유형별 특성을 분석하였다. 유형화 결과, 서울시 역세권은 주택개발압력과 주택개발수용력이 모두 저(低)로 나타나는 군집1과, 주택개발압력 중저(中低) 주태개발수용력 중저(中低)인 군집2, 주택개발압력 중(中) 주택개발수용력 고(高)인 군집3, 주택개발압력 고(高) 주택개발수용력 중고(中高)인 군집4, 주택개발압력 중고(中高) 주택개발수용력 저(低)인 군집5로 분류되었다. 이를 다시 역세권 특성별로 군집1은 외곽개발유보지역, 군집2는 내부개발유보지역, 군집3은 개발관리지역, 군집4는 개발촉진지역, 군집5는 개발억제지역으로 분류하고 각 유형별 지역에 대하여 개발방안을 제시하였다. This research thesis measured potential housing development of 250 'subway station areas' around Seoul Metropolitain Region, with the use of added weighting and data of each indicator based on AHP. The analysis was conducted on the ranking of the development of 'subway station areas' on the basis of measurement results of potential housing development along with the analysis on characteristics of 'subway station areas' in daily life zone. Cluster analysis-oriented analytic measurement results suggested that 'subway station areas' in Seoul Metropolitain Region can be grouped into five clusters: Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 were populated with 'reservation areas' for outside and inside urban development, respectively scoring low all in housing development pressure and capacity. Cluster 3 was populated with 'development maintenance areas', scoring low in housing development pressure but high all in housing development capacity. Cluster 4 was populated with 'development facilitation areas', scored high all in housing development pressure and capacity. Cluster 5 was populated with 'development control areas' scoring high in housing development pressure but low in housing development capacity.

도심 주택공급 확대를 위한 역세권 주택개발잠재력 분석 및 지표개발 연구

김옥연(Kim Ok-Yeon),이영은(Lee Young-Eun) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2011 國土計劃 Vol.46 No.4

가계 자산구조와 주택소유결정요인 분석

김옥연(Kim, Ok-Yeon),문영기(Moon, Young-Ki) 한국주거환경학회 2011 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.9 No.1

It is significant to the whole country and households that how households compose to asset portfolio. Household portfolio composition is related to the financial and real asset market. This is influenced by individual household’s characteristics and internal and external environments. Recently, the increase in the number of one person households and the aging population are very apparent phenomenons in our society. Compared to normal households, one person households tend to show great differences in life patterns and asset structures. Hence, by using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey (KLIPS), 2007, this study has two focuses. First is to understand the characteristics of one person households’ and normal households’ asset structure and distinguish the differences between the two. Second, is to find out home-ownership determinants upon the two. A logistic regression model and a maximum likelihood estimation were used to achieve the two purposes of this study. First, on the asset composition, one person households holds around 1/3 of property asset, financial asset, net asset compared to normal households. Asset patterns show reverse U shapes as the age increases. One person households represent a lower ratio of house, and property asset to total assets compared to normal households. On the other hand, it shows a higher ratio than normal households in the ratio of financial assets. Second, according to the results of the logistic regression analysis, the home-ownership determinants are age, education level, spouse existence, net asset. Among all of the determinants, home-ownership is influenced by net asset considerably. If households resided Seoulㆍcapital region or had more savings, the home ownership probability rates were lower. Also, the higher the ages and educational levels were, the home-ownership probability rates were higher. But these traits are not significant to one person households. The results like such are believed to be taken into reference data when composing asset portfolios according to individual household’s characteristics as well as policy management.

비약물적 중재 원예치료프로그램이 경도신경인지장애 노인의 전반적 기능에 미치는 효과

김옥연(Ok Yeun Kim),안태영(Tae Young An),노명해(Myung Hae Noh),임은애(Eun Ae Im) 인간식물환경학회 2021 인간식물환경학회 학술대회 Vol.2021 No.추계

성폭력의 실태와 대책을 위한 연구

김옥연(Ok-Youn Kim) 대학복음화학회 2004 대학과 복음 Vol.10 No.-

기성시가지 정비를 위한 도시개발사업의 입체환지 효과 분석

김옥연(Kim, Ok-Yeon),김주진(Kim, Joo-Jin),이영은(Lee, Young-Eun) 한국도시설계학회 2011 도시설계 : 한국도시설계학회지 Vol.12 No.5

본 연구는 기성시가지 도시개발사업의 새로운 사업방식으로서 입체환지의 적용가능성을 타진하고, 다른 사업방식과의 차이점과 그 효과 등을 비교분석하기 위한 시뮬레이션 연구이다. 입체환지 적용을 위해 도시개발법상의 규정을 개선하여 환지설계 기준을 수립하고, 사업성 분석 기준 등을 가정하여 특정지구의 시나리오(사업방식)별 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 권리관계가 복잡하고 주민참여가 요구되는 기성시가지 도시개발사업 방식으로 입체환지방식이 타당한 것으로 나타났다. 기존의 수용이나 평면환지 방식에 비해 입체환지방식은 초기 사업비용이 경감되어 공공시행자의 재무적 부담이 없으며, 적절한 환지설계로 원주민에게는 일정부분 개발이익을 발생시키고 청산금도 축소된다. 단, 부동산 시장이 침체될 경우에는 현금청산비율 증가와 분양가가 인하될 가능성이 있어 사업추진에 한계가 있을 수 있다. 본 연구의 시뮬레이션에도 불구하고, 입체환지방식을 현실에 적용하기 위해서는 평가식과 개발이익 배분 등 사업과정에서 고려해야 할 사항과 관련 세부 규정이 많으므로 입체환지방식을 위한 세부 업무매뉴얼 개발이 필요하다. This study aims to examine the possibility of applying multi-level replotting method as a new business model to urban development projects (UDPs) and compare the differences and effects among other implementation methods through simulation. We established the replotting design criteria through revising the articles of "Urban Development Act’ to carry out the scenario-based simulation on a specific rearrangement zone under the assumed business feasibility criteria. As simulation results, multi-level replotting method was verified as a new appropriate implementation method for UDPs in inner city where proprietary rights are complicated and residents’ participation is more required. Comparing with the existing expropriation and flat replotting method, the multi-level replotting method may reduce financial burden of public agent due to low initial cost and provide some development benefits to the land or building owners and reduce liquidation price. in case of a stagnant real estate market, the multi-level replotting method may have some business limitation to proceed because of the possibilities of cash-liquidation increase and low housing sale price. Despite the simulation results, it needs to develop more detailed business manual to actually apply multi-level replotting method to UDPs in built-up area because there are many business points and related stipulations to be considered in the business process such as properties appraisal and development benefits allocation etc.