구소련해체후 미중관계와 향후전망

안병준 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.1

After communism and the Cold War ended in 1989 and the Soviet Union itself collapsed in 1991, Sino-American relations began to be strained and eventually came to a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in March 1996. Why did the Sino-American rapprochement reached in the 1970's and 1980's turn into confrontation? How did this change take place and what have been the most salient issues in dispute? And what are the prospects for their resolution? How these issues will impact on the Korean peninsula and what should South Korea be doing about them? These are some of the questions this study is addressing here. The fundamental reason why Sino-American detente has turned into confrontation is that their common enemy has disappeared since the Soviet Union demised. Now that they have no longer a strategic adversary, their bilateral relations are bound to reflect demands of their domestic politics and events of power rivalry. As a results of conflicts between a pluralist political system and a communist one party dictatorship, and between the only super power and a rising new power, Sino-American relations have contained more conflicts and confrontation. Further exacerbating these conflicts is weak leadership and the rise of democratization and independence movements in Taiwan. Sino-American relations have to be redefined in this changing internal and external situation by exploring areas of common interests. Details of these issues will be analyzed below. For better understanding, several core contents are summarized here : First, Sino-American relations began to sour when the U.S. launched its criticism of the human rights situation in China after Beijing cracked down on the democratization movement during the Tienanmen incident while Mikhail Gorvachev was visiting China in June 1989. But they really came to a confrontation When Washington issues a visit to President Li Denghui in June 1995. Second, differences over such issues as human rights, trade, nonprolifer-ation and Taiwan deepened. Further reinforcing them was fact that the military was rising in profile in China, that the Republican Party controlled the Congress, and that the Kuomintang government in Taiwan was seeking independence and international recognition by all means at its disposal. Much more important was the change that the U.S as the only superpower was defending the status quo while China as a rising power was challenging the U.S. led world order. There has been no consensus about the proper role of China in the international system that is undergoing profound transformation. Third, the prospects for Sino-American relations depend on what kinds of change take place in China's domestic and foreign policy. As of now two diverging imperatives are emerging. Political imperatives are working toward sovereignty, nationalism and balance power but economic imperatives are working toward reform, opening and interdependence. Suppose that the military prevails in upholding political imperatives while enhancing military power and economic growth, the communist one party system will reveal hegemonism in its foreign policy. In contrast, if a basic transformation is accomplished in China by undertaking democratization and privatization, such reformed and open system may well accommodate some form of multi-lateral security talks or a concert of powers by cooperating with the U.S. on regional and bilateral issues. Or China can sustain an authoritarian system involving a one party regime and an market economy, her foreign policy will reveal continuing efforts at balance of power to play off one power against the other in the ancient tradition of "using barbarians to control barbarians." Given the current trend that China basically subscribes to realism and has a great deal of suspicions about the U.S., the third scenario is highly likely to take place. In this case, Sino-American relations are destined to have conflicts and cooperation depending on issues and personalities. Fourth, from the standpoint of South Korea, better Sino-American relations are in the interest of peace and stability, and unification on the Korean peninsula.. While coordinating their respective policies toward China, South Korea needs to develop its independent bilateral relations by promoting military, security, economic dialogues and cooperation with China so that China can be engaged in the peace and the unification process. It is important for Koreans to correctly understand the dynamics of Sino-American and Sino-Korean relations as far as the peninsula is concerned. More than anything else, we should have realistic and strategic perspectives in coordinating our policies. South Korea shares more security and political interests with the U.S. On the other hand, China's cooperation is crucial in achieving peace and stability, and eventual unification. It is unrealistic for South Korea to practice "an equidistance diplomacy" or mediation between the U.S. and China. What we can do realistically is to build bridges and confidence by first maintaining a regional alliance with the U.S. for unification and stability while trying to minimize China's opposition and negative act. It is time for us to make serious efforts to formulate a national strategy towards these goals and to implement a proactive diplomacy to achieve them.

미·북관계의 전개 : 쟁점과 전망 Issues and Prospects

안병준 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.1

U.S.-North Korean relations are turning from confrontation to normalization after the end of the Cold War. Now that the Soviet Union is gone and the Cold War over, North Korea is no longer a direct threat to the U.S.. On the other hand, the U.S. has become the only superpower that can ensure the survival and development of North Korea. The overall direction of U.S.-North Korean relations will develop toward normalization but when and how this will be realized will be subject to constraints of North-South Korean relations and U.S.-North Korean relations. As of October 1997. they are at the stage of opening their bilateral negotiation. Whether they will go beyond this level will depends on how North Korea undergoes under Kim Jong 11 who has just assumed the post relationship with South Korea. Major issues at stake in these relations include the Geneva Framework Agreement, negotiation on missile and U.S. soldiers missed in action. establishing liaison offices, and resuming four-party of North-South Korean and U.S.-South Korean relations is the most thorny issue of all the North's refusal to talk with the South while trying to negotiate a peace agreement with the U.S. ostensibly to replace the armistice has been the most important obstacle to improving U.S. relations with the North. North Korea has succeeded in improving its relations with the U.S. by resorting to a diplomacy of brinkmanship especially in dealing with nuclear issues so that the U.S. can ensure its survival and legitimacy. The U.S. in turn, has come to negotiate with the North to achieve global nuclear nonproliferation and some results in missile exports and MIA issues. Since these enabled the North to negotiate with the U.S. while refusing to do so with the South, North-South Korean relations have worsened. The prospects for U.S.-North Korean relations will depend on what change takes place in the North and in North-South Korean relations in the years to come. In order for the U.S. and South Korea to facilitate U.S.-North Korean relations in harmony and in parallel with North-South Korean relations. they must sustain their common agenda for the peace and unification process by redefining their bilateral alliance against war into a regional alliance for unification in the peninsula and stability in Northeast Asia. To do so, they also need to build public support and to engage China in the process.

아태지역의 지역주의:아시아공동체인가, 태평양공동체인가

안병준 사회과학원 1996 계간 사상 Vol.29 No.-

집중분석:북방외교대책의 새 죄표

안병준 북한연구소 1988 北韓 Vol.- No.195

국제질서의 변천과 미ㆍ중 패권경쟁

안병준 한국외교협회 2020 외교 Vol.135 No.0

인도네시아 오일 팜 바이오매스 잠재량 평가

안병준,한규성,최돈하,조성택,이수민 韓國木材工學會 2014 목재공학 Vol.42 No.3

본 연구에서는 인도네시아 오일 팜 재배 및 CPO 생산 공정으로부터 발생되는 바이오매스의 에너지 이용 가능성을 조사하기 위하여 오일 팜 플렌테이션에서 발생하는 바이오매스의 잠재성을 분석하였다. 인도네시아의 오일 팜 재배 면적은 2011년 8.9 백만 ha에 달하고 있으며, 2020년까지 13 백만 ha로 확대될 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구에서는 2011년 면적을 기준으로 하였으며, 바이오매스의 분석은 오일 팜 재배 시에 발생되는 바이오매스와 CPO 생산 공정 중 발생하는 바이오매스 부산물의 양으로 단계를 구분하여 연구를 수행하였다. 그 결과로 2011년 오일 팜 재배 과정에서 발생하는 바이오매스는 줄기, 가지, 뿌리를 포함하여 최소 3 백만 ton에서 최대 16 백만 ton에 이를 것으로 분석되었으며, CPO 제조 공정에서는 건조 중량 기준 49 백만 ton이 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이것을 건조 기준 고위발열량으로 환산을 할 경우, 593 천 TOE에서 3,197 천 TOE의 에너지가 발생하며, CPO 제조 공정 중 발생하는 바이오매스는 건조중량 기준 48,914 천 ton이 발생하는 것으로 추정되며, 바이오매스 부산물의 에너지량은 고위발열량 기준 22,722 천 TOE, 저위발열량 기준으로 16,330 천 TOE가 발생하는 것으로 추정되었다. 따라서, 2011년 인도네시아의 오일 팜 재배와 CPO 생산으로부터 고위 발열량 기준으로 25,919 천 TOE의 오일 팜 바이오매스 부산물이 발생한 것으로 분석되었다. In this study, the potential of biomass, which is generated from oil palm cultivation and crude palm oil (CPO) production of Indonesia was assessed in the aspect of energy content. The types of oil palm biomass were classified on the basis of the cultivation stage and the CPO production stage. In the cultivation stage, biomass is considered to be produced from its' root, trunk and frond. Other possible biomass resources such as empty fruit bunch (EFB), palm kernel shell (PKS) and fiber were included in the CPO production stage. As results, total biomass from damaged plantation area of Indonesia was estimated to be annually from 3 million to 16 million tons in 2011. From CPO mills, approximately49 million tons/yr of biomass residues were estimated to be annually occurred. Their total energy content from each biomass source in cultivation stage was analyzed to be from 593,000 to 3,197,000 TOEs in terms of gross calorific value. In the case of CPO mills, around 22.7 million TOEs was estimated to be potential energy producible by biomass based on gross calorific value of dry basis. If moisture content considered, net calorific value was analyzed to be decreased to 16.3 million TOEs. Based on the results, the total energy contents of all oil palm biomass were estimated to be up to 25,919,000 TOE in terms of gross calorific value.

화재사고사례를 통해서 본 건설현장 지하공간에서의 유기용제의 위험성에 대한 연구

안병준,정기혁,이정석,임종국 한국가스학회 2018 한국가스학회지 Vol.22 No.1

In the consideration of the working conditions, which have several kinds of works operating at the same time, at construction sites, it is difficult to prevent industrial accidents. There are a number of works to employ flammable materials and hot works simultaneously operated without fire protection systems. It causes a huge fire and casualties. In this research to analyze an accident case, the reasonable prevention methods are suggested throughout the property tests for the organic solvents and the analysis of the behavior for vapour cloud in the underground area of the construction site. 건설현장은 다른 산업분야와 달리 다양한 형태의 공정을 동시에 진행하는 작업적 특성을 가지고 있어서 사고를 예방하는데 많은 어려움이 있다. 특히 소방설비가 정상적으로 설치되지 않은 상태에서 인화성물질과 화기작업이 동시 다발적으로 진행되는 경우가 많아서 큰 화재사고로 이어지고는 한다. 본 연구에서는 2016년 발생한 김포 화재사고를 통해서 작업자가 물질의 위험성을 인지할 수 있는 유일한 수단인 물질안전보건자료의신뢰도와 유증기 분석으로 보다 합리적인 재발방지 대책을 제시하고자 하였다.

Synthasis and Cytotoxicity Activity of Flavone Derivatives

안병준 한국응용약물학회 1993 학술대회 Vol.1993 No.1

북한 핵문제와 미·중관계

안병준 한국외교협회 2013 외교 Vol.105 No.0

한반도 평화과정과 4강외교

안병준 사회과학원 2000 계간 사상 Vol.46 No.-