Stock Market Response to Terrorist Attacks: An Event Study Approach

TAHIR, Safdar Husain,TAHIR, Furqan,SYED, Nausheen,AHMAD, Gulzar,ULLAH, Muhammad Rizwan Korea Distribution Science Association 2020 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.7 No.9

The purpose of this research study is to examine the stock market's response to terrorist attacks. The study uses data of terrorist attacks in different parts of the country (Pakistan) from June 1, 2014 to May 31, 2017. The event window procedure applies to a 16-day window in which 5 days before and 10 days after the attack. In addition, several event windows have been built to test the response of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. KSE-100 index is taken as proxy of response. The total terrorist attacks are classified into four categories: attacks on law enforcement agencies, attacks on civilians, attacks on special places and attacks on politicians, government employees and bureaucrats. The standard market model is used to estimate the abnormal return of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which takes 252 business days each year. Furthermore, BMP test is used to check statistical significance of cumulative abnormal rate of return (CAAR). The results of this study reveal that total number of terrorist attacks and attacks on law enforcement agencies show long-term effects on Pakistan stock exchange. However, attacks on civilians, attacks on special places and attacks on politicians, government employees and bureaucrats have little effect on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

대테러이용수단으로서의 무인항공기ᆞ드론에 대한 법률적 개선방안

김은영,윤민우 가천대학교 법학연구소 2021 가천법학 Vol.14 No.4

점차 최근 들어 새로운 기술로 주목받고 있는 무인항공기 또는 드론을 이용한 테러공격의 개연성이 점차 심각한 위협으로 대두되고 있다. 테러 집단의 신기술에 대한 관심과 투자는 자신들의 테러 목적을 달성과 테러 활동을 지속을 위해 새로운 기술적 수단을 찾는 형태로 지속되고 있다. 이에 따라 오늘날 몇몇 테러집단들은 테러공격수단으로 상당한 수준의 드론을 확보하고 있는 상황이다. 이와 관련해 심각한 문제는 드론을 이 용한 공격이 전통적인 무기를 사용할 때 보다 더 많은 사상자를 발생시킬 수 있고, 대량살상무기들인 핵물질이나 화학물질과 함께 이용하면 그 살상력과 파괴력이 더욱 커진다는 점이다. 또한 드론은 값이 싸며, 조종 이나 이용이 간편하고 기존의 보안시스템을 회피할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 더 나아가 앞으로 테러집단의 드론을 이용한 테러공격이 가속화되고 정교화 될 경우 하드타켓에 대한 테러의 접근이 용이해 질 것으로 보여져 그 피해가 더욱 클 것으로 우려된다. 이 같은 무인항공기 또는 드론을 이용한 테러집단의 테러전략과 전술의 변화를 국제사회는 매우 심각하게 받아들이고 대응할 필요가 있다. 테러세력은 언제나 새로운 공격방법, 진전된 공격무기와 수단을 찾는 다는 점을 인식하고 국가안보기관의 대응 역시 새로운 기술발전의 추이에 발맞추어야 할 것이다. 그러나 국제적으로 기존의 항공법 등과 관련한 다수의 기존법률이 안보기관들의 무인항공기/드론 테러에 대한 대응을 효과적으로 지원하지 못하는 문제점이 존재한다는 점이 지적되고 있다. 국내의 경우도 마찬가지로 이 같은 대응에 대해 아직까지 입법적 조치가 이루어지지 않은 상황이다. 따라서 이와 같은 관련 부문에 대한 필요에 따라 이 연구는 국내의 무인항공기 또는 드론의 법적 의미와 그 범위를 파악하고 국내의 무인항공기 관리와 그 문제점들에 대해 평가한다. 또한 미국의 안보기관의 드론 테러 대응 실험 및 연구, 테스트 등을 가능하게 하는 입법조치를 소개하면서 국내의 적용가능성에 대해 논의하였다. The technology of today improved the tactics and techniques of terrorist attacks. Especially, drone is one of the emerging technologies which can enable terrorist group to conduct multiple and significant effects of their attacks. For decades, terrorist groups always have been sought to obtain techniques which produce lethal weapons to accomplish their causes and to continue their attacks and supports. As a result of it, several terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and ISIS, are equiped with armed drone which enable these groups to attack hard targets which has been hard to assess and attack. The reasons why terrorist groups seeking to acquire drone as a tool for terrorist attacks are followed; first, the operation carried by drone could result in mass destruction and great number of victims which can stir up a state of chaos and horror among the target states and countries. Second, using drone as a terrorist weapon allows the terrorists to have a better chance to evade national security system and increases the chance of success of terrorist attacks. Lastly, there are many advantages that attract terrorist groups to use drone as a terrorist weapon, including the cheap cost, accessability, and ease of operation of drone. However, there are still many barriers to encounter the risk posed by terrorist’drone attack. One of the barriers is the lack of security laws to support the development of counter drone program. Several airspace laws control the operation of unmanned aircraft prohibits research, test and development of counter unmanned aircraft system in many countries. South Korea is not an exception in terms of this problem. Therefore, the purpose of this current study have two folds: First, it aims to explores the current aircraft laws and regulations controling unmaned aircraft operation and defense system in South Korea. Second, it attempts to identify the better way to improve the current unmaned aircraft security laws, regulations and operational measurers in an comparison with the legal approaches and operational measures adopted in the United States.

나이지리아 시민들의 테러공격 지지요인에 대한 경험적 분석

조정인(Jung In, Jo) 이화여자대학교 사회과학연구소 2016 사회과학연구논총 Vol.32 No.2

서방선진국들은 최근 나이지리아의 테러공격 급증에 대처하기 위해 일반 시민들의 경제적 박탈감 그리고 극단주의적 종교적 헌신수준이 무장단체와 테러공격의 확산에 영향을 끼친다는 시각을 바탕으로 나이지리아의 경제적 빈곤을 경감시키기 위한 개발원조를 확대해왔다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 나이지리아의 테러공격은 줄어들기는커녕 오히려 급증하고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구 논문의 목적은 나이지리아 시민들이 테러공격과 무장단체를 지지하는 원인이 무엇인지에 대한 경험적 분석을 시도함으로써, 시민들의 테러공격 지지원인을 체계적으로 추론하고 경험적으로 검증하고자 했다. 본 연구 논문의 주요 가설은 경제적 빈곤, 국내정치에 대한 불만, 이슬람 근본주의, 미국외교정책에 대한 판단과 테러공격 지지의 상관관계를 분석하는 것이다. 흥미롭게도 경험적 측정 결과, 첫째, 샤리아법에 의한 정치적 통치에 대한 강력한 신념을 가지고 있는 시민들과 여성의 권리에 대해 혐오하고 있는 시민들의 경우 테러공격에 대한 지지도가 높았다. 그러나, 종교적 활동과 헌신수준은 테러공격 지지도에 유의미한 영향을 끼치지 않았다. 둘째, 실업상태는 테러공격 지지도와 유의미한 상관관계가 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 그러나, 개인의 경제상황과 정부의 경제정책에 대한 판단은 테러공격 지지에 유의미한 영향을 끼치지 않았다. 셋째, 일반 시민들의 국내 정치에 대한 불만족과 테러공격 지지도 사이에 유의미한 상관관계를 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 미국의 외교정책에 대한 시민들의 불만족이 테러공격 지지와 상관관계가 높다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. Terrorist threats and militant radicalization have exacerbated security instability in Nigeria. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group, has threatened the level of insecurity in Nigeria and beyond. With the violence showing no signs of abating and the vast resources being directed against it, the systematic determinants of public support toward terrorist attacks needs to be investigated. Although there has been survey research on how Nigerians feel about militant attacks generally, little studies has investigated why ordinary men and women support terrorist attacks. This analysis breaks new ground by identifying the correlates of public support for terrorist attacks and terrorist group. The respondents’ answers to questions about terrorist attacks reveal little support for the conventional wisdoms; neither religiosity per se nor dissatisfaction of economic poverty predicts support for terrorist attacks. Empirical result demonstrates that support for Islamist politics, dissatisfaction of domestic politics, and resistance of American foreign policy are strongly correlated with support for terrorist attacks.

델파이 기법을 활용한 잠재적 테러범의 행동분석 지표개발에 관한 연구: 요인테러 양상을 중심으로

김태형,김태영,박보라,박정완,진수연 한국경찰학회 2023 한국경찰학회보 Vol.25 No.1

Numerous studies related to the scope -Terrorist attacks against VIPs or important public figures, which were a representative form of traditional types of terrorism during the Cold War, have recently increased worldwide, and types and methods have been diversified. The purpose of this study was to develop risk behavioral indicators of terrorists in order to improve their timely response to terrorist attacks. To this end, the theory of behavioral analysis of criminal psychology was used as a framework for research, and literature research and Delphi surveys were conducted in parallel. In addition, in-depth interviews were conducted with major domestic and foreign case analysis and experts through Delphi techniques. As a result of the study, the risk behavior analysis indicators of terrorists were classified into physiological factors, physical behavior factors, external factors, and verbal factors. As a result of the Delphi technique, 30 indicators were finally derived. 과거 냉전시대 전통적 테러리즘 유형의 대표적 형태였던 요인테러가 최근 들어 전 세계적으로 증가함과 동시에 그 유형과 수법도 다양해지고 있다. 그러나 테러범의 위해성 행동분석에 관한 심층적인 국내외 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 이와 같은 문제인식에 기반하여 이 연구는 테러발생 현장에서의 적시적 대응력을 제고하기 위하여 잠재적 테러범의 위해성 행동지표 개발을 위한 탐색적 연구를 시도하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 잠재적 테러범이 표출하는 언어적·비언어적 행동탐지 지표 개발을 위해 범죄심리학의 행동분석 이론과 국내외 요인테러 양상을 기반으로 문헌연구를 진행하였다. 둘째로 대테러·경호안전·항공보안 분야 전문가를 대상으로 델파이 기법을 통한 심층면담을 진행하였다. 연구 결과 위해성 행동분석 지표로는 생리적 요소, 신체행동 요소, 외형적 요소, 언어적 요소로 분류하여, 최종적으로 30개의 지표를 도출하였다.

해외 테러빈발 지역에서의 폭탄테러 위협에 대한 신변안전 강화방안

윤민우 ( Min Woo Yun ) 한국경찰학회 2014 한국경찰학회보 Vol.16 No.6

A meaningful attempt is the proposal of countermeasures for the strengthening personal security from the possible terrorist bombing threats in overseas. In places where terrorist bombing attacks are frequently occurred, how to assure personal security in an individual perspective can be a practical help for the very individual who has to stay in or travel through such dangerous areas. As a potential victim, an individual has a critical interest in what to do in order to prevent terrorist bombing and minimize the damages out of an unfortunate event. However, few proposals regarding such matters are available in the South Korean counterterrorism circle. This article responds to such need. The purpose of this essay is to propose concrete and practical measures which can assure personal security in an individual level in overseas soils. Such proposals include preventive activities to terrorist bombing and responses to the terrorist bombing event of suicide bombing attack, fixed bombing attack, and mail bombing attack.

테러사건이 군사개입 강도에 미치는 영향요인 연구: 미국의 9.11테러와 프랑스의 파리테러 사건을 중심으로

문영기,김태영 한국테러학회 2020 한국테러학회보 Vol.13 No.1

이 연구의 목적은 2001년 미국의 9.11테러사건과 2015년 프랑스의 파리테러사건이 군사개입의 강도에 미치는 영향요인을 테러사건의 파급효과 및 군사개입 결정요인을 통해 분석하는데 있다. 분석결과를 살펴보면 먼저 미국과 프랑스의 테러사건의 파급효과는 각각 군사개입 결정요인에 큰 영향을 미쳤다. 특히 미국의 9.11 테러는 테러목표의 상징성, 심리적 충격 면에서 프랑스 파리 테러보다 상대적으로 높은 파급효과가 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 특히 테러사건의 유형적 피해규모보다 무형의 심리적 충격이 클수록 그 파급효과는 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째로 군사개입 결정요인인 국가이익, 국민의지지, 국제적지지, 군사목표의 실현 가능성은 군사개입의 강도에 큰 영향을 미쳤고, 미국과 프랑스의 정치지도자들은 군사개입 정책을 결정하는데 이를 적극 활용한 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 미국은 국가이익과 군사작전의 실현가능성에 국내외적 동의를 바탕으로 최고 수준의 군사개입을 실현한 반면, 프랑스는 낮은 국민의 지지도, 군사작전의 실현가능성의 한계로 인해 제한적인 군사개입만을 실행하였다. 결국 미국과 프랑스 모두 지상군 투입을 강력히 제시하였음에도 불구하고 군사개입의 수준이 달랐던 까닭은 군사개입의 결정요인의 조건에서 차이가 발생했기 때문인 것으로 분석되었다. The purpose of this study is to analyze how terrorist attack aftermath has affected the decision on military intervention and the degree of their military engagement. In terms of its symbolic aspect, the raid efficacy, and the amount of damage, the 9.11 attack has given us a huge impact and shock. It was almost portrayed as ‘the second Pearl Harbor attack.’ When we look at the physical damage aspect, the World Trade Center in New York City, the most iconic city of the western civilization, has fallen down, and the Pentagon in Washington DC, the symbol of American political diplomacy, has been severely destroyed. However, on the other hand, it was the intangible, non-visible damage that has caused a more significant impact. Therefore, many political leaders have been trying to increase the degree of the military intervention by utilizing the “Rally ‘round the flag effect.” ‘National interest’ which is included in the national pride and the national security issues is an important determinant factor in the military intervention decision-making process. Also, members of a population perceive that national interest in terms of foreign security policy is the essential condition and the most important factor to consider. On the other hand, in terms of other factors such as ‘public support,’ ‘success rate of the military mission,’ or ‘international support’, the aftermath of 9.11 and Paris attack was impacted the decision making process in various degrees. Due to the importance of national interest, the US has decided to project military forces and commenced enormous military intervention in only 27 days after the attack. Compared to 9.11, in terms of symbolic and its physical damage aspect, the terrorist attack in Paris was not as significant. However, the fact that it was the worst violence in the country since World War II and the fact that France, one of the world’s leading country, was not able to handle terrorism properly has shocked themselves. This allowed them to learn from America. France also understood that national security is a vital national interest so they have pursued a high degree of military intervention, even though the result was military attack to a limited extent and medium-sized military intervention. To sum up, the larger the psychological impact of the terrorist attack, not tangible damage, the larger the aftermath. If the attack has caused an enormous impact on the vital national interest, there will be a higher chance of increased degree of military intervention such as coercion. We all need to think about the degree of military intervention in order to protect our vital national interest. The vital national interest mentioned here is regarding the 4 basic national interests related to intra/international security policy, which are the protection of our territory, security in the international stage, protection of liberal democracy and so on.

국가중요시설에 대한 위협분석과 처리절차에 관한 연구 -인천국제공항을 중심으로-

황호원 ( Ho Won Hwang ),이기헌 ( Ki Hun Lee ) 한국항공운항학회 2009 한국항공운항학회지 Vol.17 No.2

South Korea opened Incheon international airport(IIA) in march 29, 2001, with high expectations of becoming the distribution hub of Northeast Asia and aiming at a world best air hub. IIA compares quite well with any other leading airports in the world in it`s facilities for the movement of people and vehicles. However, with the sequence of events following the September, 2001. terrorist attack and the war in Iraq, South Korea, an ally of the US, cannot be considered a safe haven from terrorism. At a point in time when national security is given utmost importance, it is necessary to reevaluate the security of airports, because international terrorism can only occur via air and seaports. Nowadays all the countries of the world have entered into competition for their national interests and innovation of their images. with the increasing role of international airports also comes an increased likelihood as a terrorist target, because it can affect so many people and countries. From the condition of current international terrorism, we can realize that our IIA is not completely safe from a terrorist attack. The major part of counterterrorism is event control process. It`s very important for quickly saves an accident and rescues a life of person, In addition for the normalization which the airport operation is prompt. In conclusion, we should secure the legal responsibility and establish and establish a system under which we can work actively in order to implement counter terror activities from being taken an airport.

중계 공격을 예방하는 효율적인 RFID Distance-Bounding 프로토콜

부창희(Chang-hee Boo),전문석(Moon-seog Jun) 한국통신학회 2010 韓國通信學會論文誌 Vol.35 No.4b

최근 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있는 RFID 시스템은 악의적인 공격자로부터의 중계공격에서 취약함을 갖고있다. 따라서 Brands등은 Distance-Bounding 이라는 개념을 이용하여 증명자와 검증자 간의 인증 프로토콜을 제안하였고, 여기에 Hancke등은 RFID의 개념을 도입하였다. 그러나 RFID의 주요 기능 중 하나인 태그 아이디의 전달이 없다는 점과, Kim이 제안한 태그 아이디 전달에서의 익명성 및 리더 태그 간에 데이터 교환 단계에서 발생 가능한 에러 체크 방법에서 태그 아이디 검색의 비효율성의 단점이 있다. 따라서 본고에서는 태그의 익명성 및 위치 추적 불가능성을 만족하고, 태그의 정보 교환 단계에서 발생 가능 에러에 대한 저항성과, 태그 아이디의 검색에서 보다 효율적인 검색이 가능한 프로토콜을 제안한다. RFID (radio frequency identification) systems, recently being used in a wide range of areas, are vulnerable to relay attack from malicious attackers. For that reason, Brands, et al. proposed a certification protocol between a certifier and a verifier based on the concept of distance-bounding, and in addition Hancke et al. introduced the concept of RFID. However, the delivery of tag IDs, one of the main RFID features, is not still available, and there are two important demerits: anonymity in the delivery of tag IDs suggested by Kim et al. and inefficiency in finding a tag ID with regard to how to check errors which may occur in the process of data exchange between readers and tags. Therefore, this study proposes a protocol that meets the requirements of tag anonymity and location untraceability, has resistance to errors which may take place in the phase of tag data exchange, and is very efficient in finding tag IDs.

Understanding Terrorism Aiming at Energy Infrastructures: How to PROTECT KOREAN Energy Infrastructures

Yun Woo-suk J-INSTITUTE 2019 Protection Convergence Vol.4 No.2

The purpose of this study is to examine the trends and characteristics of terrorist attack on energy infrastructure since recent terrorist attacks using drones in Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities raise the question about traditional countermeasures of terrorism. Because of new technology with the fourth industrial revolution increasing the risk of a new way of terrorism, it is necessary to come up with new counter-measures to prepare for terrorist attacks, especially on energy infrastructure. To accomplish research purposes, this study examined the national protection system of South Korea government for energy in-frastructure and to identify trends and characteristics of terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure by using GTD data. According to review South Korean’s protection plans for national critical infrastructures, the major regulations in the Disaster Safety Act, the Integrated Defense Act and the Presidential Decree provide preventive tactics for national energy infrastructure. 46 energy infrastructure sites have been selected and managed as important national facilities. However, it is not clear how the existing national defense system is being operated as information is not disclosed. There are also human protection plans for en-ergy infrastructure, but physical protection plans are not specific. In order to respond to new terrorist risk factors such as drones, the improvement of physical environment of energy infrastructure is needed. For this reason, it is necessary to introduce criminal opportunity theory in criminology in the field of terrorism in order to promote safety. Analysis of GTD showed that terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure have continued to increase and decrease. In particular, more than 150 terrorist attacks have occurred every year. Although South Korean energy infrastructure is unlikely damaged because of the rarely occurrence of terrorist attacks in East-Asia, caution is need. Due to the increasing frequency of North Korea’s drone operations, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures. In addition, the characteristics of terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure are mostly those using explosives with a small number of people involved. Since the success rate of ter-rorist attacks on energy infrastructure is very high, it is important to prevent terrorist attack from oc-curred.

Trend Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in India and Pakistan Based on Big Data and Geographic Analysis

Xu Lvzi,Gu Jun 아시아사회과학학회 2022 Jornal of Asia Social Science Vol.8 No.2

India and Pakistan are two important countries of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, especially in the constructions of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. As the major political bodies in South Asia, the two countries have gone through conflicts since the partition of India in 1947. The large scale violence and terrorist attacks happened a lot which posed a severe threat to the security and stability of the region and the world. To provide theoretical support for decision-making of relevant departments, the data of terrorist attacks in India and Pakistan from 2008 to 2018 were collected and processed in this paper by using Multiple logistic regression and K-methods clustering. The conclusion can be drawn from the analysis is that 1) some link may already exist between Lashkare- Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed; 2) the Naxalites have become the biggest threat to India's national security; 3) the demarcation line between terrorist organizations in Pakistan is clear; 4) special purposes could be found in anonymous terrorist attacks, and 5) new methods may be used in terrorist attacks in the future.