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      • 도시성에 기초한 충청권 도시의 유형화에 관한 연구

        임병호,이재영 충북연구원 2014 지역정책연구 Vol.25 No.1

        The purpose of this study is to categorize the cities of Chungcheong province into groups based on the urban characteristics. The subject of this study was 29 cities and counties in Chungcheong province. To achieve this purpose, first of all, 25 analysis indexes related with urban characteristics were chosen. And Cluster Analysis and MDS(multidimensional scaling) were performed to categorize the cities into groups. The results of Cluster Analysis and MDS showed that 29 cities and countries in Chungcheng province were divided into three groups. In respect of location, the three groups were cities adjacent the west coast, cities inland and cities near the capital area. It is expected that the results of this study will give a clue in setting boundary of the planning such as regional planning. -

      • KCI등재

        글로벌 공급망 변화에 따른 식량자급률 영향

        임병호,심창용,박슬기 한국국제상학회 2023 國際商學 Vol.38 No.3

        Purpose : The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of changes in the global supply chain according to IPEF on South Korea's food self-sufficiency rate and explore strategies for future food security. The study focuses on South Korea's self-sufficiency rates for various food items and analyzes the food policies of key countries for ensuring food security, with a research target on the trends of IPEF for securing a stable supply chain. Research design, data and methodology : The analysis of the global supply chain's impact utilizes the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model, assuming the effects of import price efficiency (AMS) and export tariffs (TXS) on the food sector, with the assumption of eliminating non-tariff barriers. Additionally, the estimation of medium and long-term ripple effects is based on the assumption of the mobility of production factors. Results : The results of the analysis confirm that the implementation of IPEF could lower South Korea's food import prices and diversify the supply chain, providing advantages. However, it also highlights the drawback that the self-sufficiency rate may decrease if non-tariff barriers are completely eliminated. Conclusions : The conclusion of this paper is as follows. The government should actively engage in IPEF negotiations while requiring a more sophisticated approach to adjust non-tariff barriers to an appropriate level.

      • KCI등재

        토픽 모델링을 이용한 한국 무역규범 연구동향 분석 : 2000년~2022년

        임병호,장정인,김태한,한하늘 한국무역학회 2023 貿易學會誌 Vol.48 No.1

        The purpose of this study is to analyze the main issues and trends of Korean trade, and to draw implications for future research regarding trade rules. A total of 476 academic journal are analyzed using English keyword searched for ‘Trade Rules’ from 2000 to July 2022 in the Korean Journal Citation Index data base. The analysis methodology includes co-occurrence network and topic trend analysis which is a kind of text mining methods. The results shows that key words representing Korea's trade trend fall into four categories in which the number of research journals has rapidly increased, which are Topic 4 (Investment Treaty), Topic 7 (Trade Security), Topic 8 (China’s Protectionism), and Topic 11 (Trade Settlement). The major background for these topics is the tension between the United States and China threatening the existing international trade system. A detailed study for China's protectionism, changes in trade security system, and new investment agreements, and changes in payment methods will be the challenges in near future. 본 연구의 목적은 한국 무역의 주요 이슈와 동향을 분석하고 향후 무역규범 연구에 대한 시사점을 도출하는데 있다. 분석자료로서 Korean Journal Citation Index 데이터베이스에서 2000년부터 2022년 7월까지 'Trade Rules'로 검색된 영문 키워드로 총 476개의 학술지를 분석하였다. 분석 방법으로는 동시발생네트워크와 텍스트마이닝 방법의 하나인 토픽트렌드 분석이 있다. 분석 결과, 최근 한국 무역을 대표하는 키워드는 연구 저널 수가 급증한 카테고리인 Topic 4(투자조약), Topic 7(무역안보), Topic 8(중국 보호무역주의), Topic 11(무역결제) 4가지로 나타났다. 이들 주제의 주요 배경은 기존의 국제무역 체제를 위협하는 미국과 중국 간의 무역마찰이며, 중국의 보호주의, 무역 안보 시스템의 변화, 새로운 투자 협정, 지불 방법의 변화에 대한 상세한 연구는 가까운 장래에 도전 과제가 될 것이다.

      • KCI등재

        부가가치수출로 평가한 FTA 경제적 효과에 관한 연구

        임병호,정인교 한국관세학회 2019 관세학회지 Vol.20 No.1

        본 논문은 부가가치수출 개념으로 한국이 발효시킨 FTA의 경제적 효과를 분석하고, 글로벌가치사슬(GVC)과의 관계에 대해 살펴보고자 한다. 연구방법은 수출 구성요소 분해기법으로서, 총수출을 국내부가가치수출(DVA)과 외국부가가치수출(FVA)로 구분하여 FTA가 국내부가가치수출에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 분석결과, 한국이 발효시킨 FTA는 한국의 국내부가가치수출을 증가시켰으며 특히 중간재의 부가가치수출이 증가하였다. 다만, FTA 대상국에 따라 실적은 다소 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났는데, 한·미 FTA 와 한-EU FTA, 한-아세안 FTA에서는 증가했으나, 한-EFTA FTA에서는 오히려 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 한국은 단순히 통관을 기준으로 하는 수출입보다 부가가치수출이 국내경제에 미치는 영향이더 크다는 사실과 함께, 향후 메가 FTA의 체결이 국내부가가치수출을 증대시킬 수 있음을 정책에 반영할필요가 있다. 또한, 국내부가가치의 창출을 위하여 R&D, 특허권, 마케팅 등에서 고부가가치를 창출하도록한국 非 제조업부문의 업그레이드 전략을 서둘러야 한다. This paper analyzes the economic impacts of Korea’s FTAs by using the concept of value added exports and examines the relationship with the Global Value Chain(GVC). The research method is an export decomposition method, which analyzes the effect of FTA on domestic value added export by decomposing total export into domestic value added(DVA) and foreign value added(FVA). The results can be summarized that the Korea’s FTAs increased its DVA, especially the value added exports of intermediate goods. However, the results are somewhat different for partner countries. Korean DVA increased after the enforcement of Korea-US, Korea-EU and Korea-ASEAN FTA, b ut decreased after Korea-EFTA FTA. When designing economic policy, therefore, the Korean government should take into account that value-added exports have a greater impact on the domestic economy than values merely calculated by customs clearance, and Korea’s Mega-FTA participation could increase domestic value added exports. In order to create high value added in domestic industry, it is recommended that the country should promote a strategy for upgrading non-manufacturing industry

      • KCI우수등재

        CPTPP 원산지 가치의 계량화 및 누적에 관한 연구

        임병호 한국무역학회 2022 貿易學會誌 Vol.47 No.1

        This study aims to quantify the value of origin among CPTPP and Korea, under the assumption that the ‘cumulation’ clause has large economic effects in multilateral FTAs and increase the possibility of improving FTA utilization. Analysing the relationship between value-added exports and FTA utilization rate, there is a positive correlation between the two variables, and the cumulation of multilateral production of CPTPP is expected to increase Korea's value-added exports. In the GTAP-VA model, the target of cumulation is calculated as ‘Domestic Value Added’, and all value-added ​​of CPTPP are cumulated in the form of value added exports of exporting country. When Korea participates in CPTPP, it is possible to cumulate additional 6.3~9.6% value added, and the agreements with low FTA export utilization rates such as New Zealand, ASEAN would have greater economic effects of cumulation. For the successful implementation of CPTPP in Korea, it is necessary to develop a new origin verification system that enables multilateral value-added cumulation. It is time to seek cooperation with countries currently participating in CPTPP to prove the value added inherent in CPTPP-originating products.

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