표준산업분류와 산업연관표를 활용한 한국과 일본 부동산산업 비교 분석

박철한(Park Cheol Han),이상영(Lee Sang Young) 한국부동산학회 2014 不動産學報 Vol.59 No.-

본 논문의 목적은 한국과 일본의 부동산산업간 비교연구를 통해 향후 우리나라 부동산산업 발전에 대한 시사점을 얻고자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 표준산업분류에서는 양국의 업종 분류기준을 통일하여 비교하였고, 산업연관표는 국제투입산출표(WIOD)를 활용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 일본의 부동산산업의 규모는 우리나라의 2배 이상이고, 일본의 부동산산업이 큰 이유는 상대적으로 주택임대산업이 발달한 결과였다. 투입산출 분석에서는 한국이 일본보다 생산유발효과가 좀 더 크게 나타나지만, 부가가치유발효과는 일본이 좀 더 크게 나타나서 일본이 산업적으로 더욱 발전하였다. 이러한 부동산산업의 차이점을 고려할 때 우리나라는 향후 주택임대업의 성장 정도에 따라 산업적 성장이나 산업간 연관성이 제고될 것으로 판단된다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This paper focuses on the comparison between Korean and Japan's real estate industry through Standard Industrial Classification and Input-Output Table Analysis. Through the comparison, this study may offer insight about future change in real estate industry in Korea. (2) RESEARCH METHOD First, we checked what different classification they have for defining real estate industry and set the classification with the same order to compare properly. Secondly, we used WIOD(World Input-Output Database) data in order to take input and output analysis. We analyzed direct and indirect effect from inverse matrix coefficients(production inducement effect), value added requirement coefficient in real estate industries of two countries. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The size of real estate industry in Japan is about twice bigger than Korea, because of low development of real estate renting industry in Korea. The result from I-O table analysis between Korea and Japan indicates that Korea has higher production inducement effect on real estates business compared with Japan. But, in the side of value added inducement effect on the real estate business, the scale of Japan is higher than that of Korea. 2. RESULTS The difference from Korea and Japan in the real estate results from the house renting service, because Korea has less development scope in the housing rent service. We expect that Korean real estate industry will develop by growing real estate rental business and having more relationship with other industries as Japan does.

정치적 안정성과 은행 예대율이 OECD 국가의 고정자본 투자에 미친 영향 - 건설투자 분석을 중심으로 -

박철한 ( Cheol Han Park ),이충열 ( Choong Lyol Lee ) 한국재정정책학회 2019 財政政策論集 Vol.21 No.2

본고는 OECD 가입국을 대상으로 1996~2016년까지 건설투자 비중의 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해서 분석하였다. 신고전학파의 최적자본 투자이론에 정부 안정성과 은행 예대율 변수를 추가하여 소득 상위 국가와 하위 국가로 나누어 실증 분석하였다. 국민소득이 증가할수록 건설투자 비중의 변화를 설명한 본(Bon)의 ‘역U자 가설’이 있다. 소득이 일정 수준에 도달할 때까지 건설투자는 증가하지만, 일정 수준 이후 스톡의 증가로 경제에서 건설투자의 비중이 줄어든다는 가설이다. 글로벌 금융위기 이전까지만 해도 ‘역U자 가설’ 대로 OECD 국가들 중 소득상위 국가들이 소득 하위 국가보다 건설투자 비중이 낮았다. 그런데 2008년 글로벌 금융위기로 건설투자가 급격히 하락한 이후 2013년부터 소득 상위 국가들의 건설투자 비중이 소득 하위 국가의 건설투자 비중보다 높아졌다. 글로벌 금융위기 이후 소득 상위 국가에 비해 하위 국가의 건설투자 회복 속도가 느린데, 이러한 차이를 만들어내는 요소가 무엇인지 밝히기 위해서 분석을 수행하였다. 최적자본투자모형의 주요 변수인 경제 성장률, 실업률, 실질 주택가격, 실질 이자율 변수 이외에 정부 고정자본투자, 정치안정지수와 은행 예대율 변수를 사용하여 패널GLS 분석을 수행하였다. 실증 분석 결과 소득 상위 국가와 하위 국가 간에 건설투자 변화에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 변수가 서로 다른 것으로 나타났다. 실질 주택가격과 실업률은 소득 상위와 하위 국가 건설투자 형성에 모두 영향을 미치는 변수이다. 경제성장률과 이자율은 소득 상위 국가에는 영향이 있지만, 소득 하위 국가에는 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 은행 예대율의 경우 소득 상위 국가에는 영향이 없지만, 소득 하위 국가의 건설투자 변화에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 정치안정지수 또한 소득 하위 국가의 건설투자에 영향을 미치는 변수로 분석되었다. 본고는 최근 건설투자 침체와 함께 경제 전반에 어려움을 겪고 있는 우리나라에 다음과 같은 정책적 시사점을 제공하고 있다. 최근 정부는 주택 보유자를 대상으로한 강력한 은행 대출 규제 정책을 수행하고 있다. 향후 주택가격까지 하락할 경우 건설투자의 침체가 예상보다 더 심각해 수 있어 규제를 일부 완화할 필요가 있음을 시사한다. 또한, 정부가 장기적으로 정치적 불확실성을 최소화하고자 하는 노력이 필요함을 시사한다. This study analyzed the factors affecting the change of the proportion of construction investment from 1996 to 2016 for OECD member countries. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, the variables of government stability and bank lending rate are added to the optimal capital investment theory of the pre - election schools. There is an 'inverse U-hypothesis' of Bon (Bon) explaining how the proportion of construction investment changes as the national income increases. Construction investment tends to increase until national income reaches a certain level, but the proportion of construction investment in the economy decreases due to the increase in stock amount after a certain level. Until the global financial crisis in 2008, countries with high income among OECD countries, on the other hand, accounted for a low percentage of construction investment, as the 'reverse U-shaped hypothesis'. However, the situation has changed since the global financial crisis. In 2008, construction investment dropped sharply in the global financial crisis. In countries with high incomes, construction investment recovered fast, while those with low incomes were slow to recover. The proportion of construction investment in countries with high incomes has been higher than that of low-income countries since 2013, showing a slight difference from the ‘reverse U-hypothesis'. After the global financial crisis, the recovery rate of construction investment in the sub - nations is slower than that of the higher - income countries. Panel GLS analysis was carried out using the variables of economic growth rate, unemployment rate, real house price, real interest rate, government fixed capital investment, political stability index and bank deposit rate. The results show that there are significant differences in the variables that have a significant effect on the change of construction investment between the upper and lower income countries. Both real housing prices and the unemployment rate affected the formation of construction investment in both upper and lower countries. Economic growth rates and interest rates had an impact on the higher income countries, but not on the income sub-countries. Changes in the bank deposit rate did not affect the higher income countries but affected the lower income countries. The political stability index was also analyzed as a factor influencing the change of construction investment in the income sub - nations. This study suggests that Korea is experiencing economic difficulties due to recent construction investment recession. Recently, the government is regulating bank lending by regulations on mortgage lending. If housing prices fall togethor, it may cause the construction investment fall, larger than expectation. This study result is suggesting that some policy mitigation is needed. It also suggests that governments need to make efforts to minimize political uncertainty over the long term.

건설 경기종합지수를 활용한 공종별 건설경기 예측

박철한 ( Cheol Han Park ) 한국건설경제산업학회 2021 건설경제산업연구 Vol.8 No.2

지난 2020년부터 국내 경제는 코로나19로 인하여 불확실성이 높아진 상황으로 공종별 건설경기 상황을 정확히 판단하고 예측할 필요가 있어 본 연구를 진행하였다. 과거 연구를 참고 건설시장을 건설 생산시장, 건설 노동시장, 건설 금융시장, 건설 자재시장, 그리고 건설 소비시장인 부동산시장으로 구분하여 관련 시계열 통계를 취합했다. 경제적 중요성(Economic Significance), 통계적 적합성(Statistical Adequacy), 경기 속보성(Currency), 경기 대응성(Conformity)을 변수 선정의 기준으로 평가하였으며, 공종별 건설투자에 대응한 수준변수, 로그차분변수, 순환변동치 그리고 전년 동기비에 대한 시차상관변수 분석을 수행해 종합지수 선정에 사용되는 지표를 선정하였다. 공종별 경기종합지수는 일반적인 통계청(NBER)이 사용하는 방법과 동일한 방법을 통해 지수화해 분석을 수행했다. 2000년 1월∼2021년 6월까지 데이터를 토대로 공종별 경기동행지수와 공종별 경기선행지수를 토대로 공종별 전망모형을 구축한 이후 이를 해석할 보조 지표를 HP 필터와 마코프 국면전환 확률을 사용했다. 이후 1년치 전망(2021년 7월∼2022년 6월)을 수행하였다. 선정된 공종별 동행지수와 선행지수를 ARIMA 모형을 사용해 2021년 7월부터 2022년 6월까지 1년치를 전망하였으며 이를 통하여 최근 공종별 건설경기를 판단하고 예측치가 시사하는 바를 해석하였다. 특히, 선행지수의 순환 변동치를 마코프 국면 전환 모형을 이용해 침체국면(low regime) 확률을(Recession Probability) 도출해 향후 공종별 건설경기의 침체 여부를 판별하였다. 본 연구를 통한 1년 전망치가 제시하는 시사점은 건설경기 양호하지만 2022년 2/4분기 선행지수의 상승세가 둔화될 가능성을 제시하고 있는데 이는 예상했던 것보다 주거용 건축경기 침체 시점이 빨라질 수 있음을 시사하고 있으며, 비주택 건축과 토목 건설경기의 호조세가 2022년 상반기까지 지속될 것임을 시사하고 있다. Since 2020, in South Korea, the domestic economy is in a situation of increased uncertainty due to the continued re-proliferation of COVID-19. In such a situation, predicting the future construction market is an important and meaningful study. In this study, through the NBER method I made 4 composite leading indicator indexs and 4 coincident composite indexes, calssified construction type such as residential buildings, non-residential buildings, civil engineering and total construction, in order to understand domestic construction market by type. I forcasted each coincident composite indexes from July 2021 to June 2022 using ARIMA model with leading indicator data and analysed their fluctation through HP(Hodrick - Prescott) filer and calculated the recession probability through basic Markov swiching model. The implications of the one-year forecast through this study are as follows. First, although the construction market is healthy in 2021, it suggests the possibility of a transition period in the first half of next year, especially in the second quarter. Based on the data through June 2021, it suggests that the transition point of the residential construction market may proceed earlier than expected. Second, the transition point of the non-residential construction market is judged to be delayed compared to the residential construction market. It is expected that the non-residential construction market will adjust after the residential construction market is adjusted. Overall, it is analyzed that the increase in the non-residential construction market is likely to continue until the first half of 2022. Third, the recovery of the civil engineering construction industry is expected to be slower than that of the construction industry, and it is expected to be achieved in a gradual fashion. This study can be said to be an early study in examining and forecasting changes in the construction market by construction type. In order to accurately monitor economic changes, continuous follow-up studies are needed. Above all, it is necessary to study how rapidly changing financial and macro-environmental changes will affect the construction industry by construction type. In addition, research is needed to continuously update the forecast model prepared for each type of construction and improve it into an optimal model with high predictive power for each period.

확장성 있는 IC 카드 운영체제의 설계

박철한(Cheol-han Park),서대화(Dae-wha Seo) 한국정보보호학회 1999 정보보호학회논문지 Vol.9 No.2

과거 30년간 국내 건설수주 변화 추이

이홍일,박철한,Lee, Hong-Il,Park, Cheol-Han 한국건설관리학회 2009 한국건설관리학회 논문집 Vol.10 No.6

건설 기술인력 수급 실태와 문제점

김민형(Kim, Min Hyung),박철한(Park, Cheol Han),이민석(Lee, Min Seok) 대한건축학회 2013 建築 Vol.57 No.7

서울지역에서 문제되고 있는 강아지의 급성설사증에 관한 병인학적 연구

한홍율,박희명,이진희,오태호,정순욱,윤신근,박철만,Han Hong-Ryul,Park Hee-Myung,Lee Jin-Hee,Oh Tae-Ho,Jeong Soon-Wuk,Youn Sin-Keun,Park Cheol-Man 한국임상수의학회 1993 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.10 No.2

In Seoul area, there are so many kennel clubs, veterinary hospital, pet establishment and breeding confers that various problems have occurred. They are crowed pet houses, poor sanitation, stress to puppies, sudden environmental changes to puppies and unvaccination against parvovirus, canine distemper virus, parainfluenza virus, infectious hepatitis caused by Adenovirus type I and Leptospira. Several studies were made to survey the infectious agents involved in acute diarrhea of poppies in Seoul are, such as history taking, physical examination, complete blood count and serum chemistry, histopathological finding, bacterial isolation and identification, and hemagglutination test in feces and hemagglutination inhibition test in serum against parvovirus, respectively. The results obtained are summarized as followed. 1. The percent of PCV (30.5$\pm$5.6) and concentration of Total protein(5.0$\pm$0.8) resulted from statistical analysis are significantly lower than normal values (p<0.05), respectively. In addition, fibrinogen (505$\pm$326) was significantly higher an normal value (p<0.001), Band neutrophil (22.9$\pm$12.7) showed signifiant difference (P<0.01). decreased monocyte (3.2$\pm$2.1) and eosinophil (0.7$\pm$0.8) values appeared statistically significant (p<0.001), lymphocyte (16.7$\pm$9), as well. 2. The concentrations of calcium .(8.0$\pm$2.8), glucose (40.1$\pm$31.4), and albumin (2.0$\pm$0.39) were lower than normal values (p<0.01, p<0.01, p<0.001), respectively. Also Inorganic phosphate (7.1$\pm$2.4), pH (p<7.9f:0.2), and Blood Urea Nitrogen (40.41=37.1) were significantly higher than normal values (p<0.001, p(0.001, p<0.05), respectively. 3. Simple and mixed infections occupied 18% and 82% in the distribution of causes in puppies with acute diarrhea, respectively. 4. As puppies got older, incidence of acute diarrhea caused by Staphylococcus aureus was decreased to 13% and infection of canine distemper virus was increased to 53%, but E coli and canine parvovirus always showed high frequency of outbreak in the body weight ranged from 35g to 7.8Kg. 5. As showed in table 5, infections of E coli and Canine Parvovirus showed high outbreak regardless of the age which is classified into three stages, 35~50 day, 60 day and 75~day to 1 year, canine distemper virus appeared increased, but in case of Staphylococcus aureus, visa versa. 6. In comparison wi methods for the laboratory diagnosis diagnosis parvovirus, Hemagglutination test showed positive reaction in 25% and mean serum antibody titer measured by Hemagglutination inhibition test showed 2779 (n=20). In addition, positive reaction was 90% (18/20). 7. In histopathological studies, enteritic and pneumonic lesions were indicated in 53.7% and 39.5% of samples, respectively. 8. Etiologic diagnosis based on the history taking, clinical signs and histopathological findings in puppies with acute diarrhea and vomiting indicated that 50% of puppies were infected by canine parvovirus and distemper virus. 9. In the parasitological examination made by simple flotation with saturated zinc sulfate tour parasites found were Isospora canis, Toxocara canis, Ancylostoma spp and Toxocara spp. Isospora canis and Toxocara canis were more frequently found among those parasites of diarrhoeic causes in puppies ranged from 35 days to 1 year. Their infestation rates were 15% and 13% respectively.

『黃帝內經』 尺膚診斷法의 의미와 임상 활용에 대한 고찰

尹基領(Yun Ki-ryoung),金鍾鉉(Kim Jong-hyun),金惠一(Kim Hye-il),金尙賢(Kim Sang-hyun),朴哲漢(Park Cheol-han),丁彰炫(Jeong Chang-hyun) 대한한의학원전학회 2016 대한한의학원전학회지 Vol.29 No.2

Objectives : The purpose of this study is to investigate the concept of the Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis in Huangdineijing(黃帝內經) and explain the characteristic of Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis and causes of its clinical applicational decline. It will help the application of the Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis to clinical treatment. Methods : The Sikuquanshu(四庫全書) database and Traditional Chinese Medical(TCM) books web database were used. The related contents of the Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis in Huangdineijing(黃帝內經) and its annotation books were analyzed. The mentions on the Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis in other medical books were examined. Results & Conclusions : The Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis is important in the diagnostic system of the Huangdineijing(黃帝內經). The Chukbu(尺膚) diagnosis is composed of inspection and palpation. Its characteristic is something different compared to that of the Chongumaek(寸口脈) diagnosis; it relatively diagnoses condition of exterior disease(表病). The causes of its clinical applicational decline are relative inconvenience, limits of feudal society, and development of Zangfubianzheng(臟腑辨證) in that era.

『黃帝內經』三焦 病機와 三焦相火 病機와의 관계에 대한 考察

白裕相(Baik You-sang),金惠一(Kim Hye-il),金鍾鉉(Kim Jong-hyun),尹銀卿(Yoon Eun-kyung),金尙賢(Kim Sang-hyun(,朴哲漢(Park Cheol-han) 대한한의학원전학회 2016 대한한의학원전학회지 Vol.29 No.2

Objectives : In this study, the relation of pathologic mechanisms of Samcho(三焦) in Hwangdineijing and Samcho-Sanghwa(三焦相火) is investigated for the purpose of understanding the concept of Samcho. Methods : The diseases and symptoms about Samcho(三焦) in Hwangdineijing and many important medical literatures including Sanghanlun(傷寒論) and Jinguiyaolue(金匱要略) were selected and analyzed to overview the historical changes of pathologic mechanism about Samcho. Results : In comparison of the Pathologic Mechanisms of Samcho, the explanation of that in many medical literatures is different from that in Hwangdineijing, that is to say, the cause of diseases related to hyperactivity of Sanghwa became the main conditions of pathogenesis about Samcho while the blockage of qi stream through Samcho. Conclusions : The clinical expression of Samcho pathogenesis is fever with perspiration that means exhaustion of body fluid not only general fever of whole body.

외반 정복법에 의한 고령의 불안정성 대퇴골 전자간 골절의 치료

한석구 ( Han Seog Gu ),김용식 ( Kim Yong Sig ),이기행 ( Lee Gi Haeng ),김영훈 ( Kim Yeong Hun ),박철 ( Park Cheol ),최남용 ( Choe Nam Yong ) 대한고관절학회 2001 Hip and Pelvis Vol.13 No.4