애널리스트 목표주가 예측능력의 지속성 및 주가반응에 관한 연구

김문철,전영순,이명복 한국세무학회 2011 세무와 회계저널 Vol.12 No.2

Most studies related to financial analysts focus on analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations. Little is known about analysts' abilities to forecast target prices. This study fills the void by examining whether analysts have differential abilities to forecast target prices and the differential abilities are persistent. Furthermore, we examine whether the market reflects analysts'differential abilities to predict target prices in stock prices. We find that the accuracy of target price forecasts in the prior period is positively related to that in the current period. This indicates that analysts do exhibit differential abilities to predict target prices and the superior abilities are persistent. Also, the results reveal that the market reactions to target price revisions are positively associated with analysts' lagged target price forecasting performance, suggesting that the market pays more attention to target price revisions of analysts who exhibited superior target price forecasting abilities in the past. 애널리스트와 관련된 대부분의 선행연구는 애널리스트의 이익예측치 및 주식 추천의견에 초점을 맞추어 왔다. 목표주가를 대상으로 한 소수의 연구들도 아직은 초기 단계로서 애널리스트 보고서 상 나타나는 목표주가의 빈도, 애널리스트가 목표주가를 제공할 유인 등을 연구하는데 그치고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 국내 애널리스트의 목표주가를 대상으로 애널리스트의 차별화된 목표주가 예측능력이 지속적인지, 주식시장에서 애널리스트의 차별화된 목표주가 예측능력을 반영하는지를 실증 분석한다. 표본기간 동안 실제 주가가 목표주가에 도달한 비율은 평균 37%로 목표주가가 낙관적으로 예측되는 경향이 있지만 최근에 접어들수록 목표주가의 정확성은 향상되고 있다. 실증분석 견과, 과거에 목표주가를 정확하게 예측한 애널리스트는 지속적으로 정확한 목표주가를 예측하고 있어 국내 애널리스트는 차별화된 목표주가 예측능력을 보유하고 있는 것으로 나타난다. 또한, 과거에 보다 정확한 이익예측치를 예측한 애널리스트는 지속적으로 정확하게 이익을 예측하는 것으로 나타난다. 아울러 애널리스트의 목표주가 변경시 과거에 보다 정확한 목표주가를 예측한 애념리스트는 덜 정확한 목표주가를 예측한 애널리스트에 비해 더 큰 주가영향력을 갖는다. 하지만 애널리스트의 목표주가 변경에 대한 주가반응은 해당 애널리스트의 근무경력과는 유의한 관계가 없는 것으로 나타난다.

Post-Initial Public Offering Earnings Management Driven by Insider Selling Motives: Using KOSDAQ Initial Public Offerings

김문철,전영순,황문호 한국증권학회 2011 Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies Vol.40 No.5

This study examines whether initial public offering (IPO) managers overstate accruals before insider selling in order to gain profits from insider selling, and whether accrual inflations that are motivated by insider selling are pronounced when information asymmetry between managers and outsiders is high and managers have higher incentives to manage earnings. Furthermore, the study examines whether managers employ real activities management in addition to accrual management, and whether managers choose accrual management over real activities management, and vice versa. The results reveal that discretionary accruals are significantly positive in the year of the IPO (year 0) and in the year immediately following the IPO (year +1). However, discretionary accruals in only year +1 are positively related to insider selling by chief executive officers (CEOs) in year +2. This is due to the lockup provision that prohibits the largest shareholders of IPO firms from selling their shares for 2 years from the date of the IPO. Our findings also show that the CEOs of IPO firms are more likely to inflate earnings before insider selling when information asymmetry is high and when their incentives for earnings overstatement are high. We find that IPO managers engage in real activities management in addition to accrual management to inflate earnings before insider selling. In addition, real activities management is observed only when the magnitude of accrual management is low, indicating that the CEOs of IPO firms engage in real activities management when they are not flexible to manage earnings through accrual management.

제주혼파초지에서 하고기 예취시기와 질소시비수준에 따른 목초생산의 계절적 변화

김문철,김영휘,조남기,이수일,이승협 濟州大學校 農科大學 動物科學硏究所 1993 動物科學論叢 Vol.8 No.1

To study management practices suitable for the least production loss of temperate pasture under summer stress. two different cutting dates (late June and mid July) under summer stress and five different nitrogen treatment application levels (0. 100. 200. 300 and 400 kg/ha) were tried during the trial period between Oct. of 1986 and Oct. of 1989. The late June cutting showed a statistically significant increase of dry matter yield of pasture in comparison with the mid-July cutting( P<0.05). Nitrogen application also gave significant increase in dry matter yield. Botanical composition at the 4th cuttings in 1988 and 1989 was dominated by weeds to the level of 50%. Application of nitro-gen at 200 kgs per ha was found to be the best with production of grasses at 70%. legumes at 10% and weeds at 20% in botanical composition comparison of pastures at the 4th cutting time the last year. showing a great decrease of weeds. K contents of pasture in June cuttings showed to be more than them in July cutting. and N and Na contents increased with increases of the nitrogen application level. It was concluded that treatment with June cutting and nitrogen application of 200kg per ha was a way to keep temperate pasture from summer stress in the Cheju area.

타이타늄 제련기술의 개발동향 (초)

김문철,정재영 대한금속재료학회 ( 구 대한금속학회 ) 2008 대한금속재료학회 학술대회 개요집 Vol.2008 No.1

제주 화산회토 목초지에서 질소 및 가리 시용 효과 : Ⅰ. Orchardgrass의 건물수량 및 무기물(N,P,L,Ca,Mg 및 Na) 함량

김문철 濟州大學校 農科大學 動物科學硏究所 1995 動物科學論叢 Vol.10 No.1

The experiment was carried out to determine the dry matter yield and the mineral contents of orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) grown in volcanic pasture treated with 5 different lebels of nitrogen and 2 different levels of potassium (5x2 split plot design). The dry matter yields were significantly increased with nitrogen application up to 200 kg/ha(p<0.05). but no effect was found with potassium(K) application. With increasing levels of nitrogen application, the concentrations of nitrogen(N) and sodium(Na) of orchardgrass were Iinearly increased but, phosphous(P) concentration was decreased(p<0.01). Significant differences were found in N, P, K, Mg and Na concentrations of orchardgrass between nitrogen application levels. and also in K, Ca, Mg, and Na concentrations between K application levels. There were significant seasonal variations in all elements determined (N, P, K, Ca, Mg and Na) (p<0.01). Comparison of seasonal variations of mineral contents between 0 and 200 kg K/ha showed that concen-trations of P, Mg, Ca and Na were higher with no K application than 200 kg/ha but the concenrration of K was higher with 200 kg K application than with no K application. The concentrations of K and P in May and June were higher than those in July and August. and the concentrations of K, Ca, and Mg uere higher in May and August than those in June and July. The concentration of Na was increased by June and was decreased thereafter. Results of this study indicate that at least 200 kp N/ha is needed to maximize the dry matter yields of orchardgrass grown in volcanic ash soil. The application of K 200 kg/ha did not improve the dry matter yields and appeared to be deleterious to the mineral nutrition of orchardgrass. especially, Mg. Ca and Na. as com-pared with no K application.

제주지역 양돈장에서 생산된 액비의 비교성분 및 오염도 평가

김문철,송상택,황경준 한국동물자원과학회 2004 한국축산학회지 Vol.46 No.3

내시경적 점막하 박리법으로 진단된 비상피성종양으로 오인한 반지세포 위암

김문철,이재운,서용우,김기회,길소현,박상훈,이영재,정금모,김지웅,조용근,조진웅 대한내과학회 2010 대한내과학회 추계학술대회 Vol.2010 No.-

제주지역 혼파목초지에서 톱밥발효 돈분 시용시 목초의 건물생산 및 무기물 함량에 미치는 효과

김문철,김태구,이종언 제주대학교 아열대농업생명과학연구소 2003 아열대농업생명과학연구지 Vol.19 No.2

요추지주막하-복강 단락술에 관한 고찰 : Review of a Series

김문철,강연구,정훈,이상평,최기환,여형태,이정길 대한신경외과학회 1996 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.25 No.4

The author reviewed a series of 48 patients who underwent lumbo-peritoneal shunt operation at Taegu Catholic University Hospital during recent five years Among them. 10 cases were excluded in this study because of their poor neurologic status which was not adequate to estimate the operative result In our series, lumbo-peritoneal shunt was done in 34 cases of communicating hydrocephalus due to aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage head in jury spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage with/without intraventricular hemorrhage and brain tumor 2 cases of pseudomeningocele and 2 cases of normal pressure hydrocephalus. The results of this review demonstrate clinical improvement in 28 cases(73.7%). 10 cases(26.7%) of no clinical improvement. There were 9 complications including 8 shunt dysfunctions and 1 infection. Among the 8 cases of shunt dysfunction 5 cases showed postoperative early clinical improvement but revealed shunt dysfunction of delayed onset. In conclusion lumbo-peritoneal shunt was considered as a good initial CSF diversion procedure in the treatment of communicating hydrocephalus and pseudomeningocele.

유아 세균성뇌막염의 두부 초음파 소견

김문철 대한영상의학회 1989 대한영상의학회지 Vol.25 No.1

44 infants under 1 year were studied retrospectively during there acute illness and follow up after 1 week intervals. the spectrum of sonographic features of bacterial meningitis in acute stage included normal scan(20 patients). echogenic sulci (10 patients) echogenic linings of ependymas (8 patients) Abnormal parenchymal echogenecity (6 patients). On follow up examination with 1 week intervals a variety of complications was found in 14 patients.(32 %) of the infants. there were ventriculomegaly in 7 patients. extraaxial fluid collection in 4 patients brain abscess in 2 patients and poor encephalic cyst in 1 patient. We concluded that ultrasound was an effective menhod for evaluation of progression and complications of bacterial meningitis.