학술논문: 최근 일본 방위정책 동향과 변화전망

권태환 ( Tae Whan Kwon ) 한국군사학회 2011 군사논단 Vol.68 No.-

Various changes are expected in the Northeast Asian security environment for the year 2012. In Korea, as well as China, Russia and the United States, there will be a change of leadership; furthermore, the instability of the Korean peninsula can be said to be continuing, in consideration of the implementation of Kim Jong-Un`s succession after the death of Kim Jong-Il in North Korea on 17 December. The Japanese "Noda Cabinet," launched anew in September of 2011, is faced with the following challenges: (1) recovery measures after the 11 March earthquake, and the acquisition of the resources therefor, (2) reform of consumption tax and social insurance system, (3) reform of the electoral system, (4) safety administration for nuclear plants, (5) reconstruction of the US-Japan alliance, and (6) passage of the 2010 budget in the diet. Regarding defense policy, after the announcement of the "Dynamic Defense Initiative," at the "Defense Plan Overview" amended in December 2010, Ministry of Defense is increasing efforts to specify the Dynamic Defense Initiative, putting forward the "Roadmap to Increase Defense Effectiveness" in August 2011; at the 26 October US-Japan defense minister-secretary meeting, agreement was reached on (1) strengthened bilateral training, (2) shared use of bases, and (3) effective strengthening of surveillance activities (P-3C). It appears that even though the re-organization of the USFJ bases is not moving forward due to opposition from the Okinawa Prefecture to the relocation of the Futenma base, agreement will be made in the future through the process of amending the "Guidance for US-Japan Defense Cooperation" and follow-on legislation that reflect the trends in US defense budget reduction. The possible legislation could include (1) easing and abolishing 3 weapons export principles, (2) international cooperation law, (3) question of the right to collective self-defense, and (4) Defense Basic Law (proposal of similar integrating legislation). Of course, it is true that there are various perspectives on the appropriate time for this debate and the amendments, and with the precondition that these are closely related to the future security environment, attention to the trends is required. The current issues in Japanese defence policy are (1) integrate operation of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and the East-Japan Earthquake, (2) US-Japan alliance and the Futenma Base relocation, (3) US-Japan alliance and the Futenmi Base relocation, (4) FX project for the Air SDF and the easing of the 3 weapons export principles, and (5) passage of the 2012 defense budget in the diet; additionally worthy of attention is (6) changes in the Japanese public`s awareness and opinion. However, the basic assumption to the observation of the changes in Japanese defense policy is the understanding of the importance of the Japanese national power, i.e., changes in economic conditions. The future Japanese defense policy will strengthen the peacetime SDF operational capabilities in order to realize the Dynamic Defense Initiative proposed in the 2010 Defense Plan Overview, and, in accordance with the multi-level cooperative security strategy, actively pursue bilateral or multilateral defense exchanges and cooperation; on nuclear policy, it will lead international peace activities under the US nuclear umbrella, based on the three denuclearization principles. Having selected the F-35 for its FX project, Japan will soon announce the government guidance regarding the easing of 3 weapons export principles, and amend the relevant legislation, such as the easing of weapons use, in preparation for the Ground SDF`s PKO deployment to South Sudan, targeted for January 2012. With the increasing public interest in the SDF and national defense, aforementioned discussions on defense policy will be actively reviewed. In consideration of these changing trends in Japanese defense policy, the future Korea-Japan relations will need to (1) develop bilateral goals and strengthen cooperation, (2) pursue military cooperation for a more realistic deterrence and retaliation against North Korea, (3) increase linkages between the Korea-US alliance and the US-Japan alliance, (4) make efforts to approach new Korea-Japan military cooperation, and (5) make mutual efforts to retore relations. From the perspective that changes mean new opportunities, it is a point in time in which will and the effort to start anew and develop the military relations between the Korea and Japan is important.

최근 일본의 안보군사 정책 변화와 한반도 안보

권태환 ( Kwon Tae Whan ) 한국군사학회 2019 군사논단 Vol.100 No.-

Recently, the US-China conflict has spread to all defenses, including trade, high technology, and diplomacy, and the security situation on the Korean peninsula is also serious. As North Korea’s denuclearization negotiations stalemate, North Korea’s continued military provocations squeeze inter-Korean relations, and the Korea government’s strategic position is narrowing. Moreover, the US-Korea relations are also facing difficulties due to sharp issues such as the transition of ROK-US OPCON and the sharing of SMA. In order to overcome these challenges and timely respond to changes in US-China security strategy, it is urgent to establish new security policies and strategies, and in particular, a plan for strengthening Korea-US-Japan security cooperation, which is likely to be cracked by the GSOMIA destruction, is required. Meanwhile, Japan government revised the US-Japan guidelines in April 2015 and entered into force in March 2016. In 2018, the National defense plan was revised and new aircraft carrier with the F-35B was introduced to prepare for future warfare, including cyber and space warfare. In particular, Japan is strengthening the joint US-Japan joint operation in preparation for the existence crisis, major impacts, and armed attacks by applying the regional emergency security legislation. Based on the changes of Japan security strategy, new plan for security cooperation between Korea-US-Japan must be derived. In conclusion, for security cooperation between Korea-Japan and Korea-US-Japan, first, it is necessary to normalize the relationship between Korea and Japan early and expand strategic dialogue channels. Second, Korea-US and Korea-US security cooperation tasks for the similar situation on the Korean Peninsula should be identified, and a practical security cooperation system should be established based on this. This will allow us to set common goals and to coordinate our mutual roles, missions and abilities. Third, efforts should be made to prepare for a substantial readiness to curb war on the Korean Peninsula, while expanding the capabilities of the United Nations and its allies based on US-Japan security cooperation. Based on this, multinational cooperation in non-traditional security areas such as coping with large-scale natural disasters and accidents, coping with pirates, and counterterrorism support will be possible. The relationship between Korea and Japan is not created, but making. And no policy or strategy can be implemented without national consensus. To this end, more practical discussions and concrete alternatives should be suggested on the realistic situation that people are concerned about, such as the Korean Peninsula crisis. In the midst of rising military tensions and uncertainties over the Korean Peninsula, there is an urgent need to improve practical relations between the two countries in order to turn the crisis into an opportunity.

일본의 군사전략과 우리의 대응

권태환 ( Kwon Tae Whan ) 한국군사학회 2020 군사논단 Vol.100 No.1

최근 일본은 인도-태평양 전략을 토대로 미일 동맹을 강화하는 한편, 집단적 자위권 행사 용인과 해병대와 항모 전력 배비 등 새로운 군사전략을 추진하면서 보통국가 행보를 지속하고 있다. 이러한 움직임은 일대일로 구상을 통해 역내 패권을 추구하는 중국의 군사력 증강과 해양진출, 북한의 핵 및 미사일 발사 등 군사적 위협 증대와 맞물리며 역내 군비경쟁을 가속화시키고 있다. 일본은 전후 냉전 해체 등 급변하는 국내외 안보환경 변화 가운데 「적극적 평화주의」를 내세우면서, 미일 동맹을 중심으로 보통국가를 적극 추진하고 있다. 지난 1960년 미일 상호안보조약을 체결하고, 미일 동맹에 의존하는 국가안보를 추진해 왔던 일본은 1976년 방위계획대강과 1978년 미일 가이드라인을 채택한다. 이후 방위계획대강은 2018년 5번째, 미일 가이드라인은 2015년 2번째 개정하고, 2013년 국가안보전략을 발표하며 국가안보체계를 갖춘다. 이러한 관점에서 본다면 일본의 군사전략은 안정된 미일 동맹을 토대로 일관성을 유지하면서도, 정세변화 등 다양한 변화를 반영하여 발전되어 왔다. 일본의 군사전략 분석을 위해 ① 국가안보전략 차원에서 방위계획대강과 미일 가이드라인, 안보법제, 미일 인도-태평양 전략 ② 자위대의 편성과 배치, 방위비 운용, 육해공 전력평가, 방위산업 측면을 대상으로 분석하였다. 도출된 일본의 군사전략은 ① 미일 일체화 전략 ② 미래 선점 군사전략 ③ 독자적 원거리 전력투사가 가능한 자기완결 군사전략 ④ 동맹 네트웍 군사전략 ⑤ 다차원 통합 군사전략이며, 향후 전망과 과제로서 ① 미중 관계의 변화 ② 동북아 군비경쟁의 가속화 ③ 일본 국민들의 안보의식 변화 ④ 한반도 통일 한국의 가능성이다. 결론적으로 우리의 대응을 한일 및 한미일 안보협력 관점에서 제시한다면 ① 한미 동맹 차원에서 한미일 안보협력을 적극 추진 ② 한반도 유사 억제와 대처를 위한 실효적 한일 및 한미일 안보협력 추진 ③ 한일 국방장관 상호방문 등 협력증진 추진 ④ 유엔을 비롯한 우방국과의 연합작전 능력 확대 ⑤ 한일 국민적 공감대 확산이다. 한일 관계는 만들어 지는 것이 아니라 만들어 나가는 것이다. 전쟁은 준비하는 자에게만 승리를 보장한다. 최근 동북아 지역 내 군사적 긴장 고조와 불확실성이 우려되는 상황 가운데 위기를 기회로 만들기 위해 일본 군사전략 분석이 한일은 물론 한미일 안보협력 개선 노력에 도움이 될 수 있기를 기대한다. In recent years, Japan has continued its normal state by strengthening the US-Japan alliance based on the Indo-Pacific strategy, while promoting new military strategies such as concession of collective self-defense rights, and the distribution of marine Corps and aircraft carrier forces. These activities accelerate the arms race in the region, coupled with increased military threats such as China's 「one belt-one road」 for pursuit of regional hegemony and sea-going North Korean nuclear and missile launches. Japan is actively pursuing normal nations based on the USJapan alliance, with [active pacifism] among the rapidly changing domestic and international security environments, such as the dissolution of the Cold War. Japan, which signed the US-Japan Security Treaty in 1960, and has pursued national security that relies on the US-Japan alliance, adopts the 1976 National Defense Prom Guideline, and the 1978 US-Japan guidelines. Afterwards, the defense plan outline was revised five times in 2018, and the USJapan guideline was revised two times in 2015, and 2013 announced a national security strategy and equipped with a national security system. From this point of view, Japan's military strategy has been developed to reflect various changes, including changes in the situation, while maintaining consistency based on a stable USJapan alliance. To analyze Japan's military strategy 1) At the national security strategy level, defense plan outline, US-Japan guideline, security legislation, Japan-India-Pacific strategy. 2) Performance Deployment of Self-Defense Forces Defense Cost Management Analysis of the defense industry by land and air power evaluation. Japan's military strategy was: 1) US-Japan unification strategy; 2) future-first military strategy; 3) self-contained military strategy capable of independent remote power projection; 4) alliance network military strategy; 5) multidimensional integrated military strategy. The future prospects and challenges are: 1) changes in USChina relations, 2) accelerated arms competition in Northeast Asia, 3) changes in security awareness among Japanese people, and 4) the possibility of Korean Peninsula unification. In conclusion, if we present our response from the perspective of Korea-Japan and Korea-US-Japan security cooperation, 1) actively promote Korea-US security cooperation at the ROK-US alliance level. 2) Promote effective Korea-Japan and Korea-USJapan security cooperation in order to suppress and cope with the Korean peninsula. 3) Promote cooperation, including mutual visits by the defense ministers. 4) Expanding capacity for allied operations with the United Nations and other allies. 5) Korea-Japan national consensus spreads Korean-Japanese relations are not just created, but to be created. War guarantees victory only to those who prepare. It is hoped that the analysis of Japan's military strategy will help not only the perspective of Korea and Japan but also Korea-US-Japan security cooperation actually improve their relations in order to turn the crisis into an opportunity amid rising military tensions and uncertainties in Northeast Asia.

인구재분배(Population Redistribution) 정책에 대하여

권태환(Kwon Tae Whan),Yoon Jong Ju(토론자),Kim Sun Oong(토론자) 한국인구학회 1979 한국인구학 Vol.2 No.1

The population redistribution policy of Korea may be summarized as follows: 1. Decentralization of industries. 2. Construction of new towns including development of temporary administrative city. 3. Development of growth poles. 1. The decentralization of industries as a means of population dispersion has been widely debated and proven to be effective in many other countries. As pointed out before, the decentralization of industries has a widely varying degree of impacts on population dispersion according to the nature of industrial re-location programs. 2. The construction of new towns and the development of administrative cities have proven to be effective as a population redistribution policy in socialist countries and Japan. These example do not guarantee success if such policy is applied in Korea. The success depends on the amount of the concomitant investment to be made in educational and cultural facilities in the new towns. 3. The development of growth poles as a means of population dispersion has not proved to be successful in the Eastern Block Countries and Japan. However, this may be the optimal means of dispersion population for Korea when one considers her present level of economic development. (1) The development of farming sector and (2) the slow-down of farming population exodus into cities should be considered as a viable alternative program for population dispersion policy. We cannot cite many examples in other countries where the development and improvement of farming sector has been successful as a means of dispersing population. However, Japan's development of her northern areas has not only improved the standard of living in Hokkaido but also contributed to population dispersion. Discussant Yoon, Jong Ju: Population movements in Korea have resulted in the concentration of people in cities and the reduction of farming households. In the Sixties, the population of the nation converged into Seoul. As a result, the population dispersion policy emphasized the "slowing-down" of the population movements in to Seoul. This policy has shown some success in that the rate of population growth in Seoul has decreased since 1970 and the more so since 1975. This phenomenon, however, is confined to the city of Seoul. The surrounding areas have shown an increasing rate of population growth. The above indicates that population policy and population dispersion program should be conducted with long-range planning, if they were to be successful. However, such has not been the case. It should also be pointed out that population policy should be a comprepensive program encompassing population, economic and social aspects. Korean population policy has not been such comprehensive program. The population policy in the Eighties should not confine itself in decreasing the rate of population growth. Instead, it should focus on improving the quality of population and thereby, increasing the manpower of high quality. In order to carry out such policy, investment should be made to improve the data on population, in particular, on children. Discussant Kim, Sun Dong: Korean population policy does not possess foresight and is segmented without a clearly formulated long range goal. One inevitable and undeniable fact appears to be that three quarters of the nation's population will eventually settle in urban cities. There are many problems associated with the population concentration in the urban areas. First, there exist the well-known problems of environments and traffic congestions in urban centers. Second, there are the problems associated with the effective utilization of the nation's land and natural resources. Third, there are the geopolitical issues related to the national defense and security. Although we recognize these problems, it should be also pointed out that population concentration in cities is an inevitable result and cause of economic development.<

자치 역량 수준별 임차인 주민조직 참여에 관한 주관성 유형 연구

김규빈,김문현,권태환,김주형,김재준,Kim, Kyu-Bin,Kim, Moon-Hyun,Kwon, Tae-Whan,Kim, Ju-Hyung,Kim, Jae-Jun 한국건설관리학회 2015 한국건설관리학회 논문집 Vol.16 No.6

공공주택은 효율적인 주택관리와 개개인의 주거환경 보호를 위해 임차인들의 참여가 필요하다. 그러나 전문가들은 임차인들의 참여를 비관적으로 전망하고 있어 임차인들의 참여 유형에 대한 고찰이 필요하다. 기존연구들은 설문조사를 통한 관리의 선호도 및 만족도를 측정하거나 성공적 임차운동 사례를 검토하는데 중점을 두는 것에 한정되어있어 참여자 입장에서 수행된 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 이에 본 논문은 행복주택에 거주 가능한 젊은계층을 대상으로 자아구조 속에 있는 주민조직 참여요인을 파악하기 위해 주관적 의견이나 인식의 구조를 확인하는데 사용되는 Q방법론을 사용하였다. 주민들의 주민참여방안에 대한 참여자들의 유형분류 및 특성을 조사하는 것이 주목적이며, 28명의 거주가능 대상자를 통해 28진술문으로써 강제적으로 유형을 분류하였고, 5가지의 유형이 파악되었다. Type 1은 '신뢰기반 주민주도형(적극형)', Type 2는 '기관불신 주민주도형(불신형)', Type 3은 '불신기반 인센티브형 (회피형)', Type 4는 '주민참여기반 기관주도형(협력형)', Type 5는 '기관신뢰 기관주도형(위탁형)'으로 정의하였다. 본 연구결과를 토대로 유형마다의 특징에 맞춘 각각의 문제점과 해결책을 제시하는데 도움을 주어 주민과 관리주체에 대한 바람직한 역할을 논할 수 있을 것이라 기대한다. The public housing needs maintenance administration for improvement and retainment of residential condition by means of tenants participation. However, most researchers have considered tenants as passive participants in this context. The previous studies did not comprehend perspective of tenants participation and just measured the management preference and the level of satisfaction on maintenance. This study investigates the attitudes and perceptions of tenants on participation in public housing maintenance by introduced Q method that provides a systematic and rigorous quantitative means for examining human subjectivity. The subjectivity is classified as types according to cost and benefit factors by principal components analysis and varimax rotation of the extracted factors. As a result, this study present 5 types of tenants participation and expect to discuss desirable roles of tenant and org anization in public housing maintenance.

이미지 프로세싱을 활용한 개구부 추락 사고예방에 관한 연구

홍성문(Hong Sung Moon),김병춘(Kim Buyng Chun),권태환(Kwon Tae Whan),김주형(Kim Ju Hyung),김재준(Kim Jae Jun) 한국BIM학회 2016 KIBIM Magazine Vol.6 No.2

While institutional matters such as improvement on Basic Guidelines for Construction Safety are greatly concerned to reduce falling accidents at construction sites, there are short of studies on how to practically predict accident signs at construction sites and to preemptively prevent them. As one of existing accident prevention methods, it was attempted to build the early warning system based on standardized accident scenarios to control the situations. However, the investment cost was too high depending on the site situation, and it did not help construction workers directly since it was developed to mainly provide support operational work support to safety managers. In the long run, it would be possible to develop the augmented reality based accident prevention method from the worker perspective by extracting product information from BIM, visually rendering it along with site installation materials term and comparing it with the site situation. However, to make this method effective, the BIM model should be implemented first and the technology that can promptly process site situations should be introduced. Accordingly, it is necessary to identify risk signs through lightweight image processing to promptly respond only with currently available resources. In this study, it was intended to propose the system concept that identified potential risk factors of falling accidents by histogram equalization, which was known as the fastest image processing method presently, used visual words, which could enhance model classification by wording image records, to determine the risk factors and notified them to the work manager.

계속적 외래 복막투석에서의 방사성 핵종 복막 촬영술

신동건,김성호,권태환,조동규,이재태,이규보,김영욱 대한내과학회 1990 대한내과학회지 Vol.38 No.3

Thirty-four CAPD patients underwent peritoneal scintigraphy utilizing ^(99m)Tc-sulfur colloid. Patients were divided into three groups. Group 1(23 cases) had no complications secondary to CAPD. In 20 of these, radiocolloid was distributed evenly after the end of infusion, and an even distribution was maintained throughout the whole dwelling time. The average recovery rate of radioactivity from the drained dialysate was 70.7%. Three cases in group 1 had a poor radiocolloid recovery rate(21%), and their scintigram and postevacuation images showed multifocal accumulation of radiocolloid after three hours of ambulation. Its clinical significance was undetermined. Group 2(6 cases) had abnormal physical findings presented as external genital swelling(3), abdominal wall swelling(2), or leakage from exit-site(1). Scintigrams were abnormal in two patients with genital swelling and provided localizing information that aided in the management of leakage. In one instance of abdominal wall swelling, peritoneal scintigraphy demonstrated leakage from the previous operation site. Group 3 (5 cases) consisted of patients with recurrent peritonitis. Scintigrams were normal in all patients. No side effects or complications associated with the technique were observed. In conclusion, peritoneal scintigraphy with radiocolloid is a safe, non-invasive method of imaging of the peritoneal cavity and can be used effectively for the assessment of complications related to CAPD procedure.