‘B&R’ 이니셔티브(一帶一路)에 따른 중국과 14개 변경국가 간 무역 결정요인 분석

고정오,서창배 중앙대학교 한국전자무역연구소 2016 전자무역연구 Vol.14 No.4

Purpose: This research aims to analyze the political and economic effects of China’s “B&R initiative” on 14 border countries. It then intends to discover the economic impact and implications of this. Specifically, this research seeks to analyze the trade determinants between China and 14 border countries since the “B&R” implementation, as trade volumes between China and these 14 border countries have recently and continuously increased. Therefore, China’s 14 border countries are rapidly emerging as an international strategic market due to this changing trade volume with China. Therefore, this study seeks to provide implications for the Korean economy, which highly depends on China. Composition/Logic: This study consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research background and objectives. Chapter 2 explains the trade status between China and its 14 border countries, and clarifies the differences from existing preceding research studies. Chapter 3 describes the analysis’ model settings, variables, and hypotheses. Chapter 4 discusses the Commission’s corroborative analysis through a Gravity model, using data from 2000 to 2014. Chapter 5 concludes and presents further implications. Findings: The results of the analysis, conducted based on the first random effect models’ estimations, demonstrate that each country’s GDP is a result of the positive (+) effects on imports and exports. Second, the GDP also indicated a positive result (+) for China’s imports and exports. Third, APEC concluded whether a dummy variable was also found that impacts imports and exports. Fourth, the FTA dummy variable was found to have no impact on imports and exports. Originality/Value: The results establish policies for the future, as South Korea will expect the growth and diversification of the country’s export trade to change those who only consider the Chinese domestic market. Additionally, as our high dependence on Chinese trade includes a need to diversify the Chinese market in the domestic markets to reduce the risks from China, efforts must diversify export markets around the country and change to enable future growth.

중국지역의 물류효율성 정태적⋅동태적 변화분석 -동북3성을 중심으로-

고정오 한중사회과학학회 2021 한중사회과학연구 Vol.19 No.2

The purpose of this study is to analyze static and dynamic efficiency of the logistics efficiency of the 3 Northeast Provinces of China, based on the DEA(CRS, VRS) and DEA Window model over 9 years(2012-2020). In the analysis of the efficiency, the transportation distance, the number of employees working environments of shipping, rail and road, and the new fixed assets investment in of logistics industry were used as an input variables, while output variables included the amount of traffic in shipping, rail and road. The empirical results show the following findings. First, static efficiency results indicated that Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang regions are inefficiency of logistics in 2019. Especially, these(jilin, heirongjiang) regions were scored below average VRS efficiency in China. Second, the research reveals that beginning in 2012, logistics efficiency of 3 Northeast Provinces of China have a tendency to improve between 2012 and 2019, as based on dynamic efficiency analysis. However, these regions show that the efficiency level was generally lower than the other areas. Third, it was analyzed that the three northeastern provinces had many things to improve due to their low logistics efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to sign partnerships in the logistics market through joint cooperation, not competition with the three northeastern regions, and seek cooperation in various fields. 본 연구의 목적은 DEA(CRS, VRS)와 DEA/WINDOW를 이용하여 2012년부터 2020년까지 중국 동북3성의 물류효율성을 정태적, 동태적으로 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위해 투입변수로는 운송거리, 철도-도로-해운종사자 수, 물류산업 고정자산 신규투자액을, 산출변수로는 철도, 도로, 해운과 같은 물류 수단별 운송량의 총계를 이용하였다. 연구결과, 첫째 정태적 효율성 분석결과, 2020년(2019년기준) 요녕, 길림 그리고 흑룡강의 물류효율성은 모두 비효율적인 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 VRS 기준 하에서 길림과 흑룡강 지역의 효율성은 전국 평균 미만으로 나타났다. 둘째, 동태적 효율성 분석결과, 2012년부터 2019년까지 동북3성 지역은 지속적으로 효율성이 다소 개선되는 경향을 보이고는 있으나, 여전히 타 지역에 비해 효율성 수준이 전반적으로 낮은 경향을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다.

중국의 스마트 헬스케어 시장 현황과 코로나19 이후 변화

고정오 국민대학교 중국인문사회연구소 2020 중국지식네트워크 Vol.- No.-

The expansion of COVID-19 is causing difficulties around the world. In order to overcome this emergency situation, smart healthcare, which can reduce the risk of infection by reducing contact between patients, medical staff and patients, is drawing more attention. The opinions on promoting the development of 'Internet plus Health Care' were announced and a series of policies were proposed to promote the convergence of the Internet and medical health, especially smart healthcare industry growth rapidly with the support of the Chinese government's policies. Therefore in 2020, China's smart healthcare industry is expected to rise at a rapid pace of 4.0 steps, with the size of the industry expected to reach 200 billion yuan in 2026. Among these drivers are growing and the developing, rising smart healthcare industries, hardware companies, software companies, service companies, and government ministries and health care systems in developing markets. Health care system need to work organically, future in which the create various business models by connect the role of suppliers between value chain is leading to the ecosystem matter the most to them. In order to secure competitiveness by expanding the smart healthcare market, we need to expand our opportunities to enter the Chinese market by actively participating in international standard activities with the industry's technology to address evolving consumer expectations and alternative infrastructure models to prepare for these un certainties and build a smart health ecosystem. 코로나19(COVID-19)의 확대로 전세계가 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이 비상 상황을 타개하기 위해 환자와 의료진간, 환자간의 접촉을 줄여 감염의위험을 낮출 수 있는 스마트헬스케어가 더욱 주목받고 있다. ‘인터넷+의료건강’발전 촉진에 관한 의견(关于促进“互联网+医疗健康”发展的意见) 이 발표되고 인터넷과 의료건강의 융합화된 발전을 촉진하는 일련의 정책들이 제시되었으며, 중국 정부 정책의 뒷받침으로 스마트헬스케어 산업이 급성장하였다. 이에 2020년 중국의 스마트헬스케어 산업은 4.0단계의 빠른 속도로 성장해 2026년 산업규모는 2000억 위안에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 스마트헬스케어 산업의 발전과 확장을 위해서는 하드웨어기업, 소프트웨어기업, 서비스분야 기업 및 정부부처가 유기적으로연결되어 생태계안에서 특정산업이 생태계를 주도하는 것이 아니라 벨류체인 간 공급자의 역할이 유기적으로 연계되어 이를 통해 다양한 비즈니스모델이 창출될 것이다. 이에 스마트헬스케어 시장의 확대에 따른 경쟁력 확보를 위해 우리는 스마트의료에 필요한 업계의 기술수준과 선진인프라를 갖추고 국제표준활동에 적극 참여하여 중국 시장에 진출에 대한기회를 확대해야 한다.

신북방경제권 국가들의 외국인직접 투자 결정요인분석

고정오,Narantsetseg Chinzorigt 원광대학교 한중관계연구원 2019 韓中關係硏究 Vol.5 No.2

본 연구에서는 1996년∼2017년까지 자료를 이용하여 중앙아시아 5국(우즈베키스탄, 카자흐스탄, 키르기스탄, 타지키스탄, 투르크메니스탄을 포함한 러시아 몽골, 우크라이 나, 아르메니아, 벨라루시, 몰도바등 신북방경제권 국가들의 외국인직접투자를 유입하 는데 큰 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 요인 중 GDP, 무역, 노동인구, ODA, 인플레이션, 사회기반시설, 산업부가가치 등이 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 실증분석을 통해 확인하 였다. 분석결과 인플레이션 변수 외의 모든 변수가 외국인직접투자를 유입하는데 영향 을 미친 것으로 확인되었는데, 변수 중우선 1%의 유의수준으로 노동인구(0.001), 사회기 반시설(0.006) 신북방 국가의 외국인직접투자를 유입하는데 큰 영향을 미쳤으며. 두 번째로, GDP(0.020), 개발원조(0.031), 무역(0.014), 산업부가가치(0.024) 등 변수들이 10%의 유의수준에서 신북방경제권 국가들의 외국인직접투자를 유입하는데 결정적인 요인임을 분석을 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 이를 통해 신북방국가들의 충분한 노동인구와 인프라 구축은 외국인투자자를 유입하는데 결정적이고, 매력적인 요인임이 확실하다 In our paper, we used the data from 1996 to 2017 to analyze the foreign direct investments of the five neighbors in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, Mongolia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus and Moldova). FDI inflows in New Northern Economic countries have been far increasing due to their rapid growth, GDP, ODA, TRADE, Labor force, Industrial value, infrastructure and inflation. The results of labor force (0.001) and social infrastructures (0.006) had a significant influence on the influx of foreign direct investments in the new northern countries. Second, GDP (0.020), development aid (0.031), trade (0.014), and industrial value added (0.024). They were able to determine through analysis that the great decisive factor in the influx of foreign direct investment in the national economy of northern New significance level of 10%. Through this, sufficient labor force and infrastructure construction in the New Northern countries can be confirmed as crucial and attractive to attract foreign investment.

[연구총서 13-03] 한ㆍ중 복합운송 활성화 방안에 관한 연구

고정오,박호신,서대원,한하늘 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2013 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 연구총서 Vol.- No.-

아세안국가들의 경제발전에 영향을 미치는 결정요인분석

고정오,CHINZORIGT NARANTSETSEG 중국지역학회 2017 중국지역연구 Vol.4 No.1

본 연구에서는 아세안 10개국들의 경제발전에 영향을 주는 요소인 외국인직접투자(FDI), 교역량(Trade), 개발원조(ODA), 산업부가가치, 인구수, 사회기반시설, 인플레이션 등 변수들이 경제성장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 실증분석해보고자 한다. 1995년에서 2015년간 패널데이타를 이용하여 아세안 10개국에 대한 FDI, ODA, TRADE, 산업부가가치, 노동인구, 사회기반시설, 인플레이션이경제성장에 어떠한 영향을 주었는지에 대한 실증분석 결과 노동인구 변수 외의모든 변수가 경제성장에 지대한 영향을 미친 것으로 확인되었다. 따라서 경제성장 잠재력과 개발수요를 지니고 있는 아세안시장을 통합적으로 보는 시각과캄보디아 등 저소득 국가의 경제성장을 위한 고소득 국가들의 정책지원이 경제성장 단계에 따라 다르게 시행되어야 함에 있어서 미시적으로 보는 시각을 통해 무역 투자분야 원조를 특화하여 정책방향과 경제협력방향을 체계화해 나아가야 할 것이다. This paper investigates how ODA⋅FDI⋅Trade affect economic growth in 4 South America countries over the last 50 years and ODA, FDI, Trade have a impact on the 4 South America countries economic growth using the Vector Error Correction Model. The results of empirical analysis based on data from 1960 to 2014 confirmed that FDI and trade than ODA has had a significant impact on Brazil and FDI, Trade had affected on Argentina economic growth. On the other hand, ODA had a more major impact on Venezuela, Peru economic growth than FDI and trade. Based on the results of these empirical analysis, when it comes to support for economic growth of underdeveloping countries, developed countries have to supply enough ODA for least developing countries to start economic growth, in case of economic take off stage, they should consider FDI, and international trade volume increase.

China's Nonferrous Metals Industry and Implications for Korea-China FTA Negotiations

고정오,조정란 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2013 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.11 No.3

Korea and China have promoted a bilateral FTA since 2005 to upgrade their economic relationships. If the Korea-China FTA is concluded, then trade between the two countries is likely to involve substantial changes both quantitatively and qualitatively. Offer lists submitted by Korea include steel, petrochemicals and machinery and those by China include some agricultural and marine products as well as nonferrous metals. Korea's interest in the Korea-China FTA has focused mainly on damage to the agricultural sector and there have been a lot of studies on the effects of the FTA on Korean agricultural sector. However, little is known about why China includes the nonferrous metals industry for early voluntary liberalization and its implications for the domestic economy. Nonferrous metals industry is one of China’s national strategic sectors and has a large supply excess in the country. This study targets the survey of Chinese nonferrous metals industry and trade structure and considers the problem of nonferrous metals in the context of negotiations for the Korea-China FTA and its implications for a higher-quality Korea-China FTA. Korea and China have promoted a bilateral FTA since 2005 to upgrade theireconomic relationships. If the Korea-China FTA is concluded, then trade between the two countries is likely to involve substantial changes both quantitatively and qualitatively. Offer lists submitted by Korea include steel, petrochemicals and machinery and those by China include some agricultural and marine products as well as nonferrous metals. Korea's interest in the Korea-China FTA has focused mainly on damage to the agricultural sector and there have been a lot of studies on the effects of the FTA on Korean agricultural sector. However, little is known about why China includes the nonferrous metals industry for early voluntary liberalization and its implications for the domestic economy. Nonferrous metals industry is one of China’s national strategic sectors and has a large supply excess in the country. This study targets the survey of Chinese nonferrous metals industry and trade structure and considers the problem of nonferrous metals in the context of negotiations for the Korea-China FTA and its implications for a higher-quality Korea-China FTA.

중국의 지역 간 물류생산성 격차분석: 서부지역을 중심으로

고정오 ( Jung O Ko ) , 한하늘 ( Ha Neul Han ) 조선대학교 동북아문제연구소 2014 동북아연구 Vol.29 No.1

중국 서부지역의 낙후된 물류 기반을 정비하는 서부대개발계획의 제1단계(2001년~2010년)가 최근 실행 완료되었다. 본 연구에서는 제1단계 계획실행기간 동안 서부지역을 중심으로 중국의 지역 간 물류생산성의 변화를 분석하고 관련 시사점을 도출하였다. 연구결과 중국 전 지역 물류생산성은 평균 2.3% 감소, 기술효율성은 0.8% 증가 그리고 기술변화는 3% 퇴보한 것으로 나타났으며, 서부지역의 물류생산성은 평균 0.4% 감소, 기술효율성은 2.2% 증가 그리고 기술변화는 2.5% 퇴보한 것으로 분석되었다. 분석결과에 따르면 물류생산성의 감소가 상대적으로 기술변화의 퇴보에 기인한다는 점에서 향후 중국 정부의 보다 적극적인 서부지역 개발정책 지원이 필요함을 시사한다. 또한 현재 1단계 기초화 단계를 넘어 2단계 가속화 단계로 들어선 시점에서 중국에 진출한 우리물류기업은 서부지역 물류시장의 확대에 발 빠르게 진입함과 동시에 서부지역 거점을 확보하는데 주력해야 할 것이다. The first stage of China``s Western Region Development, which was mainly for secure logistics infrastructures from 2001 to 2010, has been completed recently. The objective of this research is to analyze logistics productivity changes in priority among the regions where the first plan was executed. This study indicates that the logistical productivity of China decreased by 2.3%, and technical efficiency perked up slightly to 0.8%. Also, technical change regressed by 3%. Meanwhile, the average of logistical productivity decreased by 0.4% throughout the western side of China. The technical efficiency increased by 2.2% and the technical change shrank by 2.5% in this area. This analysis states that the Chinese government needs a positive reaction to support the China``s Western Region Development because a decrease in the productivity of logistics relatively affect the regressive feature of technical change. Also, the development plan is a bridge to the second step, which is accelerative level beyond the earlier step for logistics infrastructure. At this point, Korean logistics companies operating in China have to enter the market expansion of western area rapidly and secure the western base at the same time.

오이 수확로봇의 꼭지 인식을 위한 U-Net 기반의 차폐 영역 복원 기술 개발

류지원 ( Jiwon Ryu ),김성제 ( Sungjay Kim ),홍석주 ( Suk-ju Hong ),노승우 ( Seungwoo Roh ),김응찬 ( Eungchan Kim ),김기석 ( Ghiseok Kim ) 한국농업기계학회 2021 한국농업기계학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.26 No.2

최근 인공지능 및 계측, 제어 기술의 발달과 함께 스마트팜에서의 수확로봇 개발 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 수확로봇의 작업 정확도와 효율성 확보를 위해서는 빠르고 정확한 과실 인식 기술이 필수적이고, 과실이 잎에 가려진 경우에도 수확을 위한 절단 부위를 잘 인식할 수 있어야 한다. 특히 오이의 경우, 과실이 잎에 가려진 경우가 많아 기존의 오이 과실 인식 기술만으로는 절단 부위 인식에 한계가 있다. 따라서 오이 영상으로부터 꼭지 주위의 차폐 영역을 복원하는 기술을 통한 꼭지 위치 파악이 필요하다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 영상 분할 (segmentation)에 주로 이용되는 합성곱신경망 (CNN)의 일종인 U-Net과 U-Net++ 아키텍처를 활용하여 RGB 오이 이미지에서 꼭지 주위의 차폐 영역 복원 기술을 개발하였고, 모델의 인코더로 다양한 특징추출기 (feature extractor)를 활용한 후 복원 정확도를 비교, 평가 하였다.

중국지역의 물류효율성 정태적 · 동태적 변화분석

고정오(Jung O Ko),한하늘(Ha Neul Han) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.3

The purpose of this study is to analyze static and dynamic efficiency of the logistics system of the three Northeast provinces of China, based on the DEA(CRS, VRS) and DEA Window model over a period of 12 years from 2001-2013. In the analysis of efficiency, the transportation distance, the number of employees in working environments of shipping, rail and road, and the new fixed assets investment in logistics industry were used as input variables, while output variables included the amount of traffic in shipping, rail and road. The empirical results show the following findings. First, static efficiency results indicated that Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang regions reflected logistics inefficiency in 2013. as seen in their. scores which were below average in terms of VRS efficiency in China. Second, the research reveals that beginning in 2009, the logistics efficiency of the three Northeast provinces of China has improved between 2001 and 2013, based on dynamic efficiency analysis. However, these regions show that the efficiency level was generally lower than the other china's areas.