일대일로 전략의 전망과 한국의 물류분야 대응방안 -글로벌 가치사슬 관점-

박성준 ( Sung Jun Park ),길광수 ( Wang Soo Kilk ),김세원 ( Se Won Kim ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2016 해운물류연구 Vol.32 No.2

중국 일대일로 전략은 육상의 실크로드 경제벨트와 21세기 해상실크로드 구축을 양대 축으로 한다. 중국 일대일로 전략은 주로 유라시아 전역의 거점 도시 건설 및 이를 연결하기 위한 교통물류 인프라 구축, 또는 신유라시아대륙교 등 육상을 중심으로 한 유라시아 운송회랑의 구축을 위한 중국의 대전략이다. 본 논문은 중국 일대일로 전략을 ``중국제조2025`` 계획에 의해 추동되는 중국 중심의 글로벌 가치사슬 구축노력으로 파악하고자 한다. 또 이를 통해 향후 중국에 의한 유라시아 생산 네트워크의 확산 방향을 예측하고 이에 따른 국제물류 분야에서 한국의 대응방안을 제시하고자 한다. 본 논문은 한국 제조업과 국제물류 상생을 위한 대응방안으로 선도, 편승, 균형, 전략적 헤징의 4개 전략적 대안을 제시한다. 한편 한국의 이해관계와 6대 경제회랑의 지정학 특성에 따라 이 대안들을 선택적 또는 복합적으로 활용할 것을 제안한다. 결론에서는 한국의 글로벌 가치사슬 및 공급사슬 구축 노력과 관련하여 과거 북방 경제권과 아세안(ASEAN) 등 남방 경제권 등 대륙과 해상의 균형을 취할 것을 제안한다. In March 2015, when a more sophisticated action plan for its implementation was announced, the "One Belt-One Road"(OBOR) initiative has been drawing attentions locally and from abroad in the context of international economic integration across Eurasia and its geopolitical environment. As already well known, the OBOR initiative is a grand strategy proposed by the People`s Republic of China(PRC), which consists of two pivotal components: building of the Silk Road Belt and that of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The OBOR initiative is largely understood as the PRC`s ambitious international proposal for developing six economic corridors across the Eurasian continent, which includes 26 countries, accounting for about 68% of the world population, 29% of the world`s total GDP, and 23.9% of the world`s total trade, mainly by constructing transport/logistics infrastructures, industrial complexes, and improving their intra- and inter-regional connectivities. Departing from this existing approach, this study attempts to understand the OBOR as a China-centered movement for reshaping the global value chains(GVCs) coupled with the "Made in China 2025," another ambitious long-term plan for innovating China`s manufacturing capabilities and international competitiveness. In the study, the GVCs are considered a key background concept that can explain correlation between the recent shift of China`s Foreign Direct Investment patterns and the construction of the OBOR. The study aims to predict the future course of expansion of the international production networks, which will be initiated by PRC, and is expected to be accelerated by the OBOR, while searching for South Korea`s future course and its reactions as a global logistics player. By doing so, the study proposes four strategic options including leading, bandwagoning, balancing, and strategic hedging, which can be selectively adopted or flexibly blended according to the respective geopolitical environments of the six economic corridors embedded in the OBOR. As a possible strategic option toward the China proper (or Chinese mainland), which may be considered the conceptional gateway and international hub of the OBOR, the study recommends the bandwagoning to South Korea, which means matching China`s national plans relating to logistics development as well as production networks, paying sharp attentions on moving of China`s development strategies including the "Go West" strategy. On the other hand, regarding a possible option toward China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor(CMREC), the study put an emphasis on the necessity of choosing leading option despite of uncertainty of inter-Korean relationship. In conclusion, the study put an emphasis on keeping a balance in South Korea`s policy stance toward the OBOR, re-estimating the importance and the potential of southern maritime economic corridors in terms of the consolidation of South Korea`s own GVCs and acceleration of going abroad policy in logistics businesses.

키워드네트워크 분석을 활용한 중국 일대일로(OBOR) 사업에 관한 연구동향 분석

송민근 ( Min Geun Song ),차영두 ( Young Doo Cha ),여기태 ( Gi Tae Yeo ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2016 해운물류연구 Vol.32 No.2

본 연구는 SNA(Social Network Analysis)를 이용하여 중국 일대일로 사업의 연구 동향을 파악하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 분석은 중국과 한국의 일대일로 연구 논문을 대상으로 했으며 중국 341개, 한국 73개 논문의 키워드를 통해 네트워크를 구성했다. 분석 결과, 공통적으로 OBOR, Trade, Cooperation 등이 높은 빈도를 보였고, 한국에서는 Eurasia Initiative에서 높은 빈도가 확인되었다. 연결 중심성에서 Strategy, China, Cooperation, Development, Trade, International, Logistics등이 높은 순위를 보였으며, 매개 중심성도 연결중심성과 큰 차이를 보이지 않았지만 한국 네트워크에선 AIIB, Eurasia 등이 상대적으로 높게 나타났다. 또한, 개별단어 네트워크를 구성하여 러시아, 인도, 미국 등 주요국가의 관련 키워드를 도출했으며, 한국이 중국과 대비하여 개별국가 및 지역에 대한 연구가 부족한 것을 확인할 수 있었다. The Chinese government has expressed commitment toward the "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) project, which aims to construct large-scale logistics infrastructure across an extensive region spanning Central, West, and South Asia; the Persian Gulf; the Mediterranean Sea; the Indian Ocean; Europe; and the South Pacific. Additionally, the OBOR project activities between China and other major countries are already underway. In South Korea, the OBOR project has been drawing increasing attention of the central government, local governments, and major research institutes such as those pertaining to logistics (shipping, transportation), economy, trade, politics, diplomacy, culture and so on. As OBOR would be conducted by China and several other countries, there could be diverse viewpoints highlighting the "positives," "negatives," "opportunities," and "threats" of the project. Every single country associated with the OBOR project would have its own interpretation and approach. The correspondence strategies and projects derived from every single country would together constitute the OBOR project. To understand the project properly and find out the best way to cooperate, cope with, and utilize, there is a need for continuous and patient research. The research should be focused not only on the general understanding of OBOR but also on its specific projects in major countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the research trend regarding the OBOR project using SNA (social network analysis). The analysis was conducted by reviewing OBOR-related research papers published in China and South Korea as of April 2016. A total of 2,046 and 335 keywords were derived from the total keywords presented in 341 papers of China and 73 papers of Korea, respectively, for constructing a keyword network. Frequency analyses demonstrated that words such as "OBOR," "trade," and "cooperation" showed high frequencies in both China and Korea, while "Eurasia initiative" showed a high frequency in the Korean papers. In addition, in terms of network connection centrality, "strategy," "China," "cooperation," "development," "trade," "international," and "logistics" ranked high in both China and Korea. Although the difference between connection centrality and mediation centrality was not much, some mediation centrality keywords such as "AIIB" (which stands for Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and "Eurasia" had relatively high frequencies in Korea. Analysis on close centrality demonstrated that the Chinese papers showed significant values for "capital account liberalization," "business ethics," and "lone wolf." In addition, individual word networks were constructed with country names to derive keywords related to major countries, such as Russia, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Vietnam and the United States. Compared to China, South Korea had relatively insufficient studies regarding individual countries and regions.

Assessment of the Economic Background of the OBOR

Inkyo Cheong 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2017 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.15 No.2

Although there is a growing number concerning articles/papers on China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR), it is difficult to find comprehensive research regarding the economic background in spite of the OBOR initiative involving multi-dimensional considerations. Although China targets to become a soft power leader by reviving the spirit of the old Silk Road, the OBOR is a large-scale investment project, whose rate of investment (ROI) is important for sustainability. Since new infrastructure in isolated regions is likely to be used less frequently, anticipated profitability is low. In spite of this risk, China promotes the OBOR for its economic and political purposes. China will promote the OBOR in spite of the U.S. withdrawal from TPP membership, since boosting aggregate demand is of critical importance for the country. This paper analyzes the economic background of the OBOR, which establishes China’s own model of regional integration, eases unemployment, and internationalizes its currency. Finally, this paper discusses diverse risks for China in the process of implementing the OBOR.

Assessment of the economic backgrounds of the OBOR

Inkyo CHEONG 한국무역학회 2017 한국무역학회 국제학술대회 Vol.2017 No.7

Although there is a growing number of articles/papers on China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR), it is difficult to find comprehensive research concerning the economic background of China’s OBOR, though the initiative involves multi-dimensional considerations. Although China targets to become a soft power leader by reviving the spirit of the old Silk Road, the OBOR is a grand investment project, and whose rate of investment (ROI) is important for sustainability. Since new infrastructure in isolated regions is likely to use less frequently, anticipated profitability is low. In spite of this risk, China promotes the OBOR for its economic and political purposes. China will promote the OBOR in spite of the U.S. withdrawal from TPP membership, since boosting aggregate demand is of critical importance for the country. This paper analyze the economic background of the OBOR, which establishes China’s own model of regional integration, eases unemployment, and internationalizes its currency. Finally, this paper discusses diverse risks China may face in the process of implementing the OBOR.

중국의 지정학과 주변외교: "일대일로"를 중심으로

원동욱 ( Dong Wook Won ) 현대중국학회 2016 現代中國硏究 Vol.17 No.2

본 연구는 지정학의 부활이라는 새로운 정세 하에서 시진핑 시기 중국이 취하고 있는 지정학의 특성과 주변외교의 행태를 ‘일대일로’를 중심으로 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 중국 ‘일대일로’ 전략구상은 표면적으로는 육상과 해상 양 방향에서 고대 실크로드의 복원을 통한 유라시아 국제운송회랑 구축을 핵심적 내용으로 하고 있다. 즉 유라시아 실크로드의 구축을 통한 지역경제협력을 강조하면서 애써 안보적 혹은 지정학적 고려를 배제하는 모습이다. 하지만 ‘일대일로’ 전략구상에는 미국의 유라시아에 대한 패권 유지를 위한 적극적 개입과 ‘아시아재균형’ 전략을 통한 중국에 대한압박과 봉쇄를 무력화하고 미국의 포위망을 우회하여 슈퍼파워로 부상하기 위한 중국의 지정학적 대응이라는 측면을 부인하기 어렵다. 이러한 ‘일대일로’에서 나타나고 있는 협력구상과 이니셔티브는 중국과 주변국간의 정치, 경제, 문화는 물론이고 안보영역의 밀접한 협력을 추진하는 것으로 과거 후진타오 시대와는 양적으로나 질적으로 차이를 드러내고 있다. 시진핑 지도부의 파상적 주변외교의 행보와 활동은 새로운 시대적 배경에 따른 것으로서 평화부상노선 견지, 주변외교의 격상, 역내 경제통합 및 안보협력의 주도라는 특징을 드러낸다. 그럼에도 불구하고 중국의 ‘일대일로’ 전략구상은 강대국의 견제와 반대는 물론이고 주변국의 경계와 우려를 불식해야 하며, 통과 국가 및 지역내 존재하는 정치적 불안정과 테러리즘에 따른 리스크와 함께 영토분쟁에 따른 미국의 개입을 방지해야 하는 적지 않은 지정학적 도전과 과제에 직면해 있다. The purpose of this Paper is to analyze China’s geopolitical characteristic and peripheral diplomacy focused on “One Belt One Road” in Xi Jinping era. China’s “One Belt One Road(OBOR)” as a new Silk Road Strategic Initiative is outwardly to construct Eurasian international transport corridors in both land and sea direction through restoring the ancient Silk Road. It emphasizes regional economic cooperation and discounts its security or geopolitical aspects. However, it is difficult to deny that the OBOR is a China’s geopolitical response for incapacitating US’s active intervention in Eurasia and its pressure and blockade on China through “rebalancing to Asia” strategy, and for rising as a super power breaking through the US’s siege. The cooperative plans and initiatives of the OBOR is qualitatively as well as quantitatively different from Hu Jintao era in that they include political, economical and cultural, even security cooperation between China and neighboring countries. Xi Jinping leadership’s massive peripheral diplomacy conforms with a new time setting and shows the characteristics of peaceful rising, evaluation of peripheral diplomacy, and the lead in regional economic integration and security cooperation. Nevertheless, China’s OBOR is facing with many geopolitical challenge and tasks that it should not only wipe out the world powers’ containment and neighboring countries’ apprehension, but also avoid the risk of US’s invention owing to regional territorial disputes as well as internal instability and terrorism in neighboring countries.

Assessment of the Economic Background of the OBOR

정인교 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2017 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.15 No.2

Although there is a growing number concerning articles/papers on China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR), it is difficult to find comprehensive research regarding the economic background in spite of the OBOR initiative involving multi-dimensional considerations. Although China targets to become a soft power leader by reviving the spirit of the old Silk Road, the OBOR is a large-scale investment project, whose rate of investment (ROI) is important for sustainability. Since new infrastructure in isolated regions is likely to be used less frequently, anticipated profitability is low. In spite of this risk, China promotes the OBOR for its economic and political purposes. China will promote the OBOR in spite of the U.S. withdrawal from TPP membership, since boosting aggregate demand is of critical importance for the country. This paper analyzes the economic background of the OBOR, which establishes China’s own model of regional integration, eases unemployment, and internationalizes its currency. Finally, this paper discusses diverse risks for China in the process of implementing the OBOR.

한국어교육의 다양화와 지역 특성화 -“일대일로(一帶一路)(One Belt One Road)”배경(背景)하에서의 중국(中國)의 한국어교육(韓國語敎育) 발전방향(發展方向)

강보유 ( Jiang Baoyou ) 중국한국(조선)어교육연구학회 2017 한국(조선)어교육연구 Vol.12 No.-

The strategy of “One Belt One Road (OBOR)” provides a brand new opportunity for foreign language education in China. Therefore, the question of how to take the opportunity and advance the development of language education, especially Korean language, becomes the most important issue. The paper first discusses the general environmental changes of foreign language education in China under the influence of OBOR―(i) in order to realize the barrier-free communication with the OBOR countries, the Ministry of Education of The People`s Republic of China has accelerated the cultivation of non-universal language learners and users; (ii) The criteria of the cultivation of foreign language users have been raised. Second, Korean language, as the only one that is not the official language of all the OBOR countries, has its specialities. Therefore, this paper attempts to conceive the strategy for developing Korean language according to its current position in China. Third, concerning the nature of different universities that have Korean language programs and their regional characteristics, the paper emphasizes the regional diversification of Korean education in China. Finally, to realize the diversity, it is crucial to update, adjust and improve the curriculum and syllabus; the ratio of the faculty`s professional knowledge fields should be rationalized and the faculty`s degree level should be raised; universities should allow various forms of undergraduate thesis and give permission to write in Chinese in some research fields; Universities should not only consider job placement when enrolling new students.

Sukuk (an Islamic Bond) Utilization for One Belt One Road

Yoonmin Kim 한국무역연구원 2020 The International Academy of Global Business and T Vol.16 No.1

Purpose – Islamic finance is one of the most rapidly growing segments of the global financial system. This is especially so due to Sukuk, an Islamic bond that holds the highest influence in Sharia (Islamic law) because it meets the requirement of a financial instrument in both the conventional and Islamic financial markets. The bonds were utilized for One Belt One Road (OBOR) projects and when analyzing several leading Islamic, finance-related stock markets. Design/Methodology/Approach – Due to the vernacular used in Sharia, a subsequent language barrier persisted whereby Sukuk bonds were analyzed and standardized in this paper indirectly. This author indirectly analyzed and standardized Sukuk bonds from several leading Islamic finance-related stock markets, such as the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), The Bursa Malaysia exchange, Tadawul (the Saudi Stock Exchange), The London Stock Exchange (LSE), The Luxembourg Stock Exchange, The Irish Stock Exchange (ISE), and NASDAQ Dubai. Findings – The findings are that Sukuk would be able to play a central role in supporting and advancing the financing needed for OBOR projects while also enabling the mobilization of capital for initiatives that would maintain a net positive impact socially for all countries involved. Research Implications – The principles of Islamic finance are grounded in the timeless values of social justice and the betterment of humankind that provides a broader moral arc for ethical and equitable business practices. Given the prudent decision of Chinese leadership to significantly expand environmentally sustainable and climate-friendly infrastructure projects, there is a distinct opportunity to unlock combined synergies through the convergence of Islamic financing and funding for the OBOR.

중국의 ‘일대일로’ 구상, “편승”과 “균형”사이의 라틴아메리카

이태혁(Lee, Tae-Heok) 한국외국어대학교 중남미연구소 2017 중남미연구 Vol.36 No.4

본고는 일대일로 구상이 발표된 시점, 목적 그리고 진행과정에 대한 의미를 부여하며, 일대일로 본 프로젝트에 ‘적극적’으로 포함되지 않은 대륙인 라틴아메리카 지역에 대한 연구다. 더욱이 본 연구는 중국의 ‘일대일로’ 구상의 의미가 지정학적 그리고 지경학적 맥락과 더불어 글로벌한 프레임으로 접근을 해야 한다고 주장한다. 다시 말해 ‘일대일로’ 구상은 유라시아, 중동 그리고 아프리카를 연결하는 중국의 입장에서 서진(西進) 전략이지만, 본질적으로 ‘일대일로’ 프로젝트는 중국 주변국가와 연결된 연선국가 등의 지역단위를 넘어서는 전지구적 공공재인 만큼, 본 프로젝트에 ‘적극적으로’ 포함되지 않은 지역인, 라틴아메리카의 반응과 역할 등에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본고는 국제정치의 주요 패러다임인 현실주의이론의 틀로, 라틴아메리카가 편승 혹은 균형이라는 양 극단적 포지셔닝을 취하기보다는 ‘적극적’인 조절자의 역할을 제시한다. Through providing meaning and context behind the purpose and procedure of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative, this paper studies Latin America"s exclusion from the project, and the potential role it could play as an active participant or simply as an observer. Moreover, this study argues that the meaning of the OBOR should be understood through the context of geo-political and geo-economic aspects, as well as, through a global framework. In other words, the OBOR initiative is a geographically western strategy, linking Eurasia, with the Middle East and Africa. However; the OBOR, in essence, is a project which can be considered at a global level, as a public good, since it goes beyond a regional level only linking China with its neighboring countries. Therefore, it is necessary to study the reaction and role of Latin America, despite the fact that the region is not actively involved in this project. This paper employs an analytical framework of realism, which is a major paradigm of international politics, and suggests that Latin America should play a proactive role as an accommodator, rather than taking an extreme position of either, bandwagoning or balancing.

중국 일대일로 참여국의 위협요인과 메카니즘: 중국 접경국가의 인프라 건설 사례를 중심으로

김송죽 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2018 평화학연구 Vol.19 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the threats and mechanisms participating nation in the OBOR project and to identify the gap between the basic principles and reality of One Belt And One Road. In 14 border countries of China, the 10 border countries are participating in the OBOR project and 6 economic corridors except India, Bhutan, Afghanistan and North Korea. The threats and issues of the border states of China as a recipient of infrastructure construction on OBOR can be classified economically, politically, and socioculturally Economic threats are increasing liabilities, delivery of energy resources, unfair contracts, transfer of land leasing and operating rights due to repayment conditions or defaults, disadvantages due to China's business methods and mechanisms. Political threats are corruption of bureaucrats, venality, retaliatory measures, infringement of national sovereignty and territories, promotion of conflicts and military threats, and the preoccupation of geographical and strategic location. Socio-cultural threats are Increase in demonstrations against China due to application of China's technical standards, land leasing, illegal immigration of Chinese workers, and environmental problems. Xi Jinping Government was expressed offically about OBOR such as open cooperation, harmony and inclusion, market mechanism and mutual win-win, co-existence of co-prosperity and so on. However mechanism of the national corporation which is centered on 'the party' is contradictory to the Belt and Road's philosophy that China insists on. This means that chinese characteristic socialism in business process in a practical OBOR. 이 글의 목적은 일대일로에 참여한 중국의 접경국가가 받는 위협요인과 메카니즘을 분석하는 것이다. 이를 통해 일대일로의 기본원칙과 실제 사이의 간극을 규명하는 것이다. 중국의 14개 접경국 중에서 일대일로의 6개 경제회랑에 참여한 국가는 인도, 부탄, 아프가니스탄, 북한을 제외한 10개국이다. 일대일로의 수용국이자 중국의 접경국이 받았던 위협요인과 쟁점을 경제적, 정치적, 사회문화적 측면에서 분류하여 보면 아래와 같다. 경제적 위협요인은 부채증가, 에너지 자원 송출, 채무불이행 혹은 상환조건으로 토지 및 운영권 양도, 중국 특색의 일대일로 사업방식과 불공정 계약으로 인한 불이익이다. 정치적 위협요인은 현지 관료의 부정부패 및 금품매수, 보복조치, 국가주권 및 영토 침해, 갈등조장 및 군사위협과 견제, 지리적・전략적 요충지 선점이다. 사회문화적 위협요인은 중국의 기술표준 적용, 토지임대, 중국인 노동자의 불법이주, 환경문제, 토지보상 및 이주비용 문제 등의 이유로 반중시위가 증가이다. 이것은 시진핑 정부가 표명했던 개방적인 협력, 조화와 포용, 윈윈효과, 공생공영, 운명공동체, 평화와 번영 등의 일대일로 기본원칙은 실제 접경국가의 사례에서는 적용되지 않고 있음을 보여준다. 이러한 결과를 낳게 된 주요한 원인은 ‘당’ 중심의 국가주식회사로 철저히 중국에게 이익이 돌아갈 수밖에 없는 구조이기 때문이다.