한국과 일본의 주택시장에 관한 연구 : 임대가격결정요인과 장기주택가격을 중심으로

송인호(Song, In-Ho) 한국부동산정책학회 2016 不動産政策硏究 Vol.17 No.2

Housing prices in Japan peaked in 1990, and both of its nominal and real prices have fallen since then, signalling continuing deflation. In the meantime, Korea’ nominal housing prices have risen consistently, that is different from Japan’s nominal housing prices. According to rental price determinants, Korea’s housing prices in 1990 were overvalued, and according to long-term housing price determinants, prices in 1990, 2002~2004 and 2007~2008 were overvalued. On the other hand, Japan’s housing prices observed in 1989~1990 were overvalued, deviating far not only from the price trend line but also from the long-term housing prices influenced by fundamental factors. The results show that in Japan, since the time it entered the aging society, the elderly population proportion has negatively affected housing prices. For Korea that is approaching to an aging society, it is too early to tell that the increasing proportion of the elderly population (aged 65 and over) brings negative impacts to the housing market. It is however worth to note that the proportion of those aged 50~64 brings statistically significant negative impacts to the housing market, implying that an increasing elderly population will affect the housing market in a longer time-series. Under this circumstance, these empirical analysis results demonstrate that housing supply policy is of greater importance than ever.

주택하부시장 특성을 고려한 신규 분양가와 입주후 가격 변화에 관한 연구

최열(Choi Yeol),김형수(Kim Hyung Soo),박명제(Park Myung Je) 대한토목학회 2008 대한토목학회논문집 D Vol.28 No.4D

본 연구는 신규 아파트 가격의 규제에 대한 결과로 나타난 신규 아파트의 분양가격과 입주 시점의 매매가격의 차이 즉 프리미엄의 원인을 규명하고자 하였다. 분석 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 부산지역 아파트 시장은 기존의 주택 형태에서 벗어나 새로운 형태의 아파트에 대한 수요가 높은 것으로 생각할 수 있다. 분석결과 아파트의 층수가 고층이고 타워형 아파트인 경우에 가격 상승이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 주택의 형태도 더 많은 베이를 가진 아파트가 가격이 상승하는 것으로 드러났다. 둘째, 신규 아파트의 가격은 주거한 후에 평가되는 가격이 아니므로 가격상승에 대한 기대감을 높여주는 단지정보가 가격상승에 중요하게 작용하는 것으로 분석할 수 있다. 유의하게 나타난 변수는 녹지율과 아파트 세대수, 브랜드 및 도심지 접근성 등과 같은 변수였는데, 이러한 경향은 기존의 중고 아파트에 대한 연구결과와 동일한 것이다. 셋째, 신규 아파트 중에서도 대단지의 규모를 가지며 건설업도급순위 상위에 위치하는 건설회사의 브랜드 아파트가 가격 상승률이 높은 것으로 분석되었는데, 이는 지역 건설 업체의 불리한 상황에 대한 반증이기도 하다. 넷째, 변수들 중에서 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 변수는 아파트 분양가인 것으로 드러났다. 각종 선행연구들에서는 아파트 가격 상승요인으로 정부의 분영가격 규제정책을 지목하였는데, 분양가격의 규제로 인해 주택의 초기 분양가가 시장가격보다 낮게 책정되어 아파트 입주시에 가격이 상승하게 된다는 것이다. 또한 하부시장 특성에 대한 중요성을 알 수 있었는데, 중고주택시장의 상승률, 제1선호구와 제2선호구, 아파트 비율이 유의한 영향을 끼치는 것으로 나타났다. This study tried to find differences between housing lotting prices and sale prices owing to new multi-family housing price regulation. As the results of this study, they are as follows; First, this study shows housing market in Busan has a preferences of new housing which has a new housing form differing from the existing housing form. For example, the mixed-use apartment with higher stories shows steeper incline than the apartments with the existing forms. Second, the new housing prices are affected by the information that affect the price of the old existing housing. They are rates of green area of an apartment complex, the number of household, accessibility to downtown Busan and etc .. They are also confirmed factors that affect a rise of used-housing price in other studies. Third, brand value of apartments affects new housing prices. For example, if the major construction companies build the new apartment, it shows a rising trend than any other housing. Therefore, the local construction companies are expected to be put on a disadvantage places than major construction companies. Fourth, the lotting prices are the most important cause that lead to rise the new housing prices. Accordingly, the present lotting prices are expected that upward tendency the purchasing prices of the new housing will not continue, because the lotting prices have risen since the government removed lotting price regulations and exceeded the level of used-housing prices. And it denote that importance of housing sub-market which indicates rates of old existing housing market rising, frist preference Gu, second preference Gu, rate of multi-family housing.

국내 주요 도시의 주택가격 간 상호 연관성 분석

신종협(Jonghyup Shin),서대교(Daigyo Seo) 한국산업경제학회 2014 산업경제연구 Vol.27 No.4

국내 4대 주요 도시의 매매가격과 전세가격을 대상으로 다변량 GARCH 모형을 이용하여 상호 연관성 분석을 실시해 보았다. 4대 도시의 매매가격과 전세가격은 모두 이번 기의 조건부 분산이 지난기의 조건부 분산(GARCH 효과)보다 오차항의 제곱(ARCH 효과)에 더 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 매매가격과 전세가격 간 조건부 상관계수는 부산이 가장 높았고 인천이 가장 낮았는데 부산은 2000년대 중후반 주택가격의 정체현상이, 인천은 같은 기간 매매가격의 가파른 상승세가 그 원인 중 하나로 지목되고 있다. 매매가격의 조건부 상관계수는 서울-인천 및 서울-부산이 다른 지역에 비해 상대적으로 높게 나타났는데 서울과 인천은 수도권에 위치하고 있다는 지리적 근접성에, 서울과 부산은 국내 1, 2위의 도시규모에 각각 영향 받은 것으로 보인다. 4대 도시 모두 매매가격 충격이 매매가격의 변동성을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났으나, 특정 도시의 매매가격 충격이 다른 도시의 매매가격 변동성에 미치는 영향은 그리 크지 않은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 또한 개별 도시의 매매가격 변동성은 낮은 지속성을 보이는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 예견되지 않은 주택정책이 예견가능한 주택정책보다 주택가격을 더 크게 변동시킨다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 정책당국이 주택가격의 안정성을 유지하기 위해서는 시장참여자들이 충분히 예측할 수 있는 방향으로 정책을 수립?집행해 나가는 것이 필요하다. 전세가격 변동성은 매매가격 변동성보다 상대적으로 높은 지속성을 보이는 것으로 밝혀졌으나, 그 분석결과가 매매가격의 분석결과와 질적으로 큰 차이를 보이지는 않는 것으로 나타났다. Using Multivariate GARCH model, we examine the relationship between housing sales prices and lease prices in four major cities. The squared errors have a greater effect on the conditional variance for the current period than for the last period in housing sales prices and lease prices of four major cities. Busan is the highest conditional correlation coefficient, whereas Inchon is the lowest. The housing prices in Busan were stagnant in the second half of 2000. Inchon suffered a rapid rise in housing prices during the same period. The correlation coefficients of housing sales prices in Seoul and Inchon and Seoul and Busan are high, relative to in other regions. The former seems to have been due to the geographical proximity, and the latter likely resulted from the size of city. In this paper, we find that a shock to housing sales price would increase the volatility of housing sales prices in four major cities. However, the effects of the shock to housing sales prices would be heterogeneous on the volatility of housing sales prices. The volatility of housing sales prices is likely to have low persistence in all cities, which implies that any unpredictable housing policy could lead to a greater fluctuation in housing prices. To keep housing prices stable, policymakers need to establish and implement the policy that can be fully predicted by market participants. The volatility of housing lease prices would have high persistence, relative to housing sales prices.

은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향

한명훈 국제문화기술진흥원 2022 The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technolo Vol.8 No.4

This study analyzed the effect of bank loans on housing prices, classified bank loans into bank total loans, household loans, and real estate mortgage loans, and analyzed housing prices by dividing them into national-level, regional-level, and Seoul-level housing prices. The main analysis results are as follows. First, it was found that the increase in total bank loans significantly increased housing prices across the national-level, regional-level and Seoul-level. Second, it was found that household loans had a positive effect on regional-level housing prices, but were not statistically significant. In addition, the effect of bank loans on regional-level housing prices was found to be relatively small compared to the effect on national-level housing prices. Third, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of bank loans on regional-level housing prices and Seoul-level housing prices. Fourth, inflation and bank total loans had a significant positive effect on regional-level housing prices with a lag in the first quarter, and short-term interest rates had a significant negative effect on Seoul-level housing prices with a lag in the first quarter. Overall, it was found that the effect of bank loans on housing prices had a positive effect about twice that of Seoul-level rather than regional-level. 본 연구는 은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으며, 은행 대출을 은행 총대출금, 가계대출금, 부동산담보대출금으로 구분하였고, 주택가격을 전국, 지방, 서울 주택가격으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 주요한 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 은행 총대출금의 증가는 전국, 지방, 서울 주택가격을 유의하게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 가계대출금은 지방 주택가격에 양(+)의 영향을 미치지만 통계적으로 유의하지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 은행 대출이 지방 주택가격에 미치는 영향은 전국 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 비해서는 상대적으로 작은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 은행 대출이 지방 주택가격과 서울 주택가격에 미치는 영향은 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 인플레이션과 은행 총대출은 1분기의 시차를 가지고 지방 주택가격에 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미쳤으며, 단기금리는 1분기의 시차를 가지고 서울 주택가격에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미쳤다. 전체적으로는 은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향이 지방보다는 서울에 약 2배 정도 더 큰 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

Spatial process for housing prices in Seoul using spatiotemporal local G statistics

서창완,손학기,최윤수,김재명 대한공간정보학회 2016 Spatial Information Research Vol.24 No.1

The housing market in Korea was unstable for a period of 5 years from 2003 to 2007, during which time housing prices in certain areas greatly increased in com- parison to housing prices in other areas in a relatively short period. The purpose of this study is to explore temporal trends in spatial patterns of housing prices in the housing market in Seoul, Korea. We utilized apartment locations based on monthly housing prices for the sub-administration areas (dongs) of the 25 local governments (gu) in Seoul from January 2004 to December 2007, and applied spa- tiotemporal local G statistics. The major findings of this study are as follows. First, housing prices are highly spa- tially and temporally correlated in certain areas, such as Gangnam and the new towns, and housing price hotspots are sufficiently detectable in terms of spatiotemporal autocorrelation. Secondly, government housing policies affect the spatiotemporal patterns of housing prices. These results indicate that we are able to monitor spatiotemporal patterns of housing prices in a housing market, and use this approach to effectively support the decisions of housing policy makers.

An empirical analysis on the housing prices in the Pearl River Delta Economic Region of China

WANGPENG,강명구 서울시립대학교 도시과학연구원 2014 도시과학국제저널 Vol.18 No.1

As the region with the fastest and highest level of economic growth in China, the instabilityof the Pearl River Delta Economic Region’s (PRDER) housing prices has alwaysbeen a social focus. In order to make housing price stabilization policies effective, moreresearch is required about China’s housing market mechanism and the influential factorsof housing prices. China used to be a socialist economy since 1949. Deng Xiaoping beganChina’s economic reform and introduced market principles in 1978. Since then China’shousing had undergone transition from socialist system to market economy. After 1998,China had housing market economy. This paper aims to understand the housing pricebehaviour of newly transformed housing market economy of China by analysing theinfluential factors of China’s housing prices compared to that of conventional marketeconomy. This study established a fixed-effect model of panel data and conducts empiricalanalysis on the influential factors of housing prices in nine cities in the PRDER byadopting the least squares dummy variable method. Because access to China’s housingmarkets data is extremely limited, collecting reliable and consistent housing marketdata at city level was the biggest challenge in this research. We successfully compiledlocal housing market data at city level including housing sales price index of the ninecities, number of resident (registered and non-registered-but-long-stay residents), GDPper capita, residential sales area, annual investment on housing development land purchasingcost, and so forth. The analysis confirms that China’s housing market follows amarket mechanism. Demand is the major driver of housing prices, housing supply tendsto lower the housing prices, and land cost is positively correlated with housing prices. Since cities grow with continuing urbanization and industrialization, housing supplypolicy seems required to effectively stabilize the housing price.

총동원체제기(1937-1945년) 조선총독부의 주택임대가격 통제정책 시행과 운영

이명학 ( Myoung Hak Lee ) 고려대학교 민족문화연구원 2016 民族文化硏究 Vol.70 No.-

이 글은 조선총독부가 실시한 물가정책 가운데 생활필수품이자 가격요소였던 주택임대가격 통제정책의 운영과 성격을 살펴보았다. 조선총독부 임대가격정책은 세 단계로 추진되었다. 첫 번째는 행정적으로 억제하는 단계이다. 1939년 6월 조선총독부는 임대가격 억제와 관련된 행정명령을 시행했다. 기존 임대가격은 1938년 12월 31일로 고정되고 새로운 임대가격은 주변 시세를 초과할 수 없다는 것이 핵심이었다. 두 번째는 임대가격을 제도적으로 고정하고 변동 허가제를 실시하는 단계이다. 1939년 10월 「지대가임통제령」의 시행을 계기로 조선총독부는 모든 임대가격의 상한선을 명확히 설정하고 도지사에게 임대가격의 증액 허가권과 감액 명령권을 부여했다. 자문기관인 지대가임심사회도 설치했다. 그러나 지대가임심사회 심의는 자의적으로 이루어졌다. 「지대가임통제령」에 명문화된 가능성은 행정기관의 판단에 따라서 언제든지 ``사문화``될 수 있었다. 세 번째는 적정 임대가격을 설정하고 행정기관의 가격조정권을 강화하는 단계이다. 1941년 7월 시행된 「개정지대가임통제령」을 통해서 조선총독부는 적정 임대가격을 산출하고 새롭게 설정된 임대가격의 신고를 의무화하며, 지대가임심사회를 폐지했다. 각 도는 적정 임대가격을 ``전가의 보도``처럼 사용하면서 임대가격 증액에는 소극적으로, 감액에는 적극적인 자세를 보였다. This paper examined the enforcemet and management of housing rental prices, a key element in consumer prices, by the Japanese Government-General of Korea. The Japanese Government-General of Korea introduced housing rent prices in three stages. The first stage involved an administrative suppression of prices. In June 1939, the Japanese Government-General of Korea implemented an administrative order to suppress housing rent prices. Existing prices were fixed as of December 31, 1938,while new prices were prohibited from exceeding the market prices of that time. Second, a permissible range of change was introduced to the fixed housing rent prices. With the implementation of the Rent Control Act in October 1938, the Japanese Government-General of Korea clearly specified an upper limit for all housing rent prices and granted governors the right to increase or decrease prices within an acceptable range. An advisory board for housing rent prices was organized, but decisions were made autonomously. Depending on the administrative institute, the provisions of the Rent Control Act could be rendered invalid. Third, housing rent prices were setto an appropriate level and administrative institutes were granted greater authority in price adjustment. Through the Modified Rent Control Act implemented in July 1941, the Japanese Government-General of Korea set appropriate housing rent prices and enforced mandatory reporting while abolishing the advisory board. Each province adhered to the recommended housing rent prices, remaining more passive in price increases and exercising more control over price cuts.

주택가격과 은행대출의 상관관계에 관한 연구

박연우 ( Yun Woo Park ),방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ) 한국금융연구원 2012 금융연구 Vol.26 No.1

Most households fund house purchases using mortgage loans from banks or other financial institutions since residential properties tend to be costly. This leads to an interaction between bank loans, more specifically, residential mortgage loans and house prices. While there have been numerous studies which examine the relationship between bank lending and house prices, there is no consensus on the direction of causality between the two variables. In spite of the close relationship between the housing market and the banking soundness there has been little study on the causality between bank lending and house prices in Korea. This paper aims to shed light on the relationship between bank lending and house prices and derive policy implications on housing finance. The study periods are 1986Q1~2010Q4, which we break into the real estate cycle 1 (January 1986~December 1998) and the real estate cycle 2 (January 1999~December 2010), the latter of which we break up in turn into up market in cycle 2 (January 1999~December 2006) and down market in cycle 2 (January 2007~December 2010) while the markets examined are Korea as a whole as well as Seoul and three regional markets (Daegu, Gwangju, and Busan). We examine the long run relationship using the co-integration tests and the causality using the dynamic response models, namely, VECM. We measure house prices using the Kookmim Bank apartment price index while we measure bank credit using the total bank lending as well as residential mortgage loans. Since the house price dynamics and the characteristics of banking tend to be different between Seoul and regional markets, we divide the Korean residential market into Seoul and three regional markets. In addition, we also consider other factors that can influence house prices such as household income, money supply, interest rate, the number of new housing units permitted and housing construction costs. The empirical findings are as follows. Cointegration tests show that long run relationship exists between house prices and bank lending in Korea. As for the causality between house prices and bank lending based on dynamic response models we find that for the study periods bank lending causes house prices and vice versa in all markets. However, housing demand side factors such as GDP, M2 and interest rates and housing supply side factors such as housing permits and housing construction costs do not have a consistent effect on either house prices or bank lending across various markets. Furthermore, we find that if imbalance occurs between house prices and bank lending it is reduced over time so as to maintain the long run equilibrium between house prices and bank lending. Unlike the hypothesis that the causality relationship between bank lending and house prices for Seoul would be different from that for regional markets, we find positive relationship between bank lending and house prices consistently for Seoul and regional markets. This result suggests that as the Korean residential mortgage markets mature there is a gradual convergence of the housing financing markets between Seoul and the regional markets. Our findings suggest that, since bank lending causes house prices, sudden rise (fall) causes sudden rise (fall) in bank lending leading to banking instability. They also suggest that, since house prices cause bank lending, ability-to-repay tests such as DTI serve as an effective house price stabilizer.

금융위기 이후 예금취급기관 가계대출과 주택가격의 동태적 관계

한규식(Gyu-Sik Han) 강원대학교 경영경제연구소 2020 Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Vol.11 No.4

Purpose - This study aims in analyzing the dynamic relationship between household loans and housing prices according to the characteristics of depository institutions after the financial crisis, identifying the recent trends between them, and making policy suggestions for stabilizing house prices. Design/methodology/approach - The monthly data used in this study are household loans, household loan interest rates, and housing prices ranging from January 2012 to May 2020, and came from ECOS of the Bank of Korea and Liiv-on of Kookmin Bank. This study used vector auto-regression, generalized impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition with the data so as to yield analysis results. Findings - The analysis of this study no more shows that the household loan interest rates in both deposit banks and non-bank deposit institutions had statistically significant effects on housing prices. Also, unlike the previous studies, there was statistically significant bi-directional causality between housing prices and household loans in neither deposit banks nor non-bank deposit institutions. Rather, it was found that there is a unidirectional causality from housing prices to household loans in deposit banks, which is considered that housing prices have one-sided effects on household loans due to the overheated housing market after the financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - As a result, Korea s housing market is closely related to deposit banks, and housing prices are acting as more dominant information variables than interest rates or loans under the long-term low interest rate trend. Therefore, in order to stabilize housing prices, the housing supply must be continuously made so that everyone can enjoy housing services equally. In addition, the expansion and reinforcement of the social security net should be realized systematically so as to stop households from being troubled with the housing price decline.

중국의 상품주택 가격 결정요인에 관한 실증분석

필위녕(Bi, Weining),여양(Yu, Yang),남수중(Nam, Soojoong) 영남대학교 중국연구센터 2018 중국과 중국학 Vol.- No.33

본 연구는 2002년부터 2015년까지 중국 31개 지역의 연도별 패널데이터를 이용한 고정효과모형을 통해 중국 상품주택 가격의 결정요인을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 실증분석에서 얻은 주요 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전국 상품주택 가격의 결정요인 중에서 준공면적, 개발 기업의 개수, 토지 공급가격, 인구밀도, 1인당 GDP, 부동산 투자액이 모두 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 인구밀도와 1인당 GDP 변수가 상품주택 가격에 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 있다는 것을 확인하였다. 둘째, 동부 지역 상품주택 가격의 결정요인 중에서 인구밀도가 동부 상품주택 가격에 가장 큰 요인을 담당하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 중국 전국에서의 영향 역시 다른 변수들과 비교하여 아주 큰 것으로 나타났다. 향후 중국의 급속한 도시화에 따라 상품주택의 가격이 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 셋째, 중부 지역상품주택 가격의 결정요인 중에서 부동산 시장의 토지 공급 가격, 1인당 GDP 변수는 양(+)의 양향을 미치는 반면 부동산 개발 기업의 변수는 음(-)의 양향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 서부 지역 상품주택 가격의 결정요인 중에서 1인당 GDP(주민 소득)가 상품주택 가격에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다는 것을 확인한 반면 토지가격의 효과는 미미한 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석을 통해 얻은 결론은 중국정부가 부동산 가격을 낮게 유지하기 위해 효과적인 토지 공급 정책을 적극적으로 추진해야 한다는 것이다. The study conducted an empirical analysis on determining factors of housing prices in China by a fixed effect model using yearly panel data from 2002 to 2015 in 31 regions of China. First, it was found that among the determining factors of the nationwide housing price for commodities, the floor area, the number of developers, land supply prices, population density, per capita GDP, and real estate investment were all statistically significant. It was confirmed that the population density and per capita GDP variables have the biggest influence on the prices of commodities housing. Second, we found that among the determining factors for eastern commodity housing prices, population density plays the largest role in the price of eastern commodity housing. The influence across China was also great, compared to other variables. It is expected that the price of commodities houses will rise in the future as China’s rapid urbanization occurs. Third, among the determinants of housing prices in the central region, real estate market land supply prices and per capita GDP variables have positive effects, while real estate developers ’ variables have negative effects. Fourth, among the determinants of western commodity housing prices, it is confirmed that per capita GDP (per capita income) has a significant influence on the prices of commodities housing, whereas the effects of land prices have been insignificant. The empirical analysis suggests that Chinese government should actively pursue effective land and housing supply policies to keep property prices low.