An optimized gene expression programming model for forecasting the national CO₂ emissions in 2030 using the metaheuristic algorithms

Hong, Taehoon,Jeong, Kwangbok,Koo, Choongwan Elsevier 2018 APPLIED ENERGY Vol.228 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>To cope with the approaching POST-2020 scenario, the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission in the building sector, which accounts for 25.5% of the total CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions, should be managed effectively and efficiently. To do this, it is essential to forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector by region. As the South Korean government does not currently do this by region, regional characteristics are rarely taken into consideration when managing the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector. Towards this end, this study developed an optimized gene expression programming model for forecasting the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 using the metaheuristic algorithms. Compared to the forecasting performance of the gene expression programming model, the forecasting performance of the optimized gene expression programming – harmony search optimization model has improved by 7.11, 2.05, and 2.06% in terms of the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error, respectively. Various national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions scenarios in the building sector were established in order to better analyze the variation range of the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector. Compared to the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2016 (i.e., scenario 1: 41,337 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 2: 45,373 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 3: 46,024 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>) in multi-family housing complexes, the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 (i.e., scenario 1: 37,579 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 2: 37,736 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 3: 37,754 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>) in multi-family housing complexes are forecasted to increase by 10.00–21.91%. The developed optimized gene expression programming – harmony search optimization model will potentially be able to assist policymakers in central and local governments forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030. Through this, national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission management that more closely reflects the characteristics at the regional or national level can be supported.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> A model was developed to forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030. </LI> <LI> Model was developed using gene expression programming and harmony search algorithm. </LI> <LI> The mean absolute percentage error of developed model was estimated to be 2.06%. </LI> <LI> National CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 is increased by 10.0–21.91% than in 2016. </LI> <LI> Developed model can help policy makers forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions. </LI> </UL> </P>

환경산업연관분석을 이용한 농업분야의 이산화탄소 배출량 변화 분석

민슬기 ( Seulgi Min ),노수각 ( Sookack Noh ),박재성 ( Jaesung Park ),봉태호 ( Taeho Bong ),손영환 ( Younghwan Son ) 한국농공학회 2013 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2013 No.-

Kyoto Protocol, which is regulation and international agreement to prevent global warming, was adopted in 1997. South Korea is also under pressure to reduce CO₂ emissions according to expanded request for reducing CO₂ emissions. In many industry sectors, CO₂ emissions for products were analyzed and characterized to reduce CO₂ emissions. But little effort in researching agricultural sector has been undertaken. The agriculture sector because it is recognized as environmentally friendly industry, which has CO₂ emissions and absorptions. However, as increasing interest in eco-friendly products in the livestock and horticultural specialties sector, needs for an analysis of CO₂ emissions for agriculture sector is increasing. The objective of this research is to estimate CO₂ emissions in agriculture sector and characterize the change of CO₂ emissions for agriculture sector in South Korea using Environmental Input-Output (EIO) analysis. EIO analysis is the tool which is used to analysis total CO₂ emissions in great scale. In this study, 1995∼2009 Input-Output Table in South Korea were used for making EIO tables. The yearbook of energy statistics 2011 in Korea was used to estimate the amount of energy source. To analyze an accurate energy usage, remove energy source that used raw material for other energy source, like anthracite coal to briquette, bituminous coal to cokes, and natural gas to city gas. As a result, CO₂ emissions of agriculture sector is decreased from 1995 to 1998 for 26%, From 1998 to 2003, CO₂ emissions of agriculture sector were not changed much. From 2003 to 2006, CO₂ emissions increased for 24%, but from 2006 to 2009, CO₂ emissions decreased for 23%. If more research conducted for changes in CO₂ emissions of agriculture sector, it can be useful database for reducing CO₂ emissions of agriculture sector.

Comparing Production- and Consumptionbased CO2 Emissions by Economic Growth

노주만,조홍종 한국무역학회 2022 Journal of Korea trade Vol.26 No.8

Purpose – Carbon emission standards are based on the “production-based carbon emissions” generated by the production of goods in the relevant country which were the existing measurement methods. However, can such carbon emissions measurement standards be established international? For example, some of the goods produced in developing countries are produced for the demand of developed countries. The method of measuring carbon emission based on the final demand of a certain country is called “consumption-based carbon emissions.” This study compares productionand consumption-based CO2 emissions according to economic growth in ninety-three countries categorized by income level. Design/methodology – Our empirical model considers the difference between production- and consumption-based CO2 emissions according to economic growth. Also, our model investigated whether the EKC hypothesis in most of the previous studies that had been based on production-based emissions was also established in the consumption-based emission model. Considering the continuous characteristics of CO2, we utilized the generalized method of moments (GMM), specifically a system GMM econometric technique because CO2 in the previous period can affect CO2 in the present period. Findings – Our main findings can be summarized as follows: The results show that for the consumption-based CO2 emissions model, CO2 continuously increases as economic growth increases in the upper-middle income countries. The inverted U-shaped result was found in the case of the production-based model. However, in the lower-income countries, an inverted-U shape in which CO2 emissions decrease at some point as the economy grows in the production-based model does not appear. On the other hand, in the consumption-based model, an inverted U-shaped result was obtained when estimating with system-GMM. Additionally, the proportion of manufacturing, energy imports, and energy consumption had an effect on both the production- and the consumption-based model regardless of the group's CO2 emissions. On the basis of such assessments, policymakers need to consider not only production- but also consumption-based options. Originality/value – Previous studies have mainly focused on production-based CO2 emissions, with most of them revolving around economic growth or the effect of various social and economic factors on CO2 emissions. However, this study considers the relationship with economic growth using consumption-based emissions as a dependent variable by classifying ninety-three countries by income level.

Development of a CO₂ emission benchmark for achieving the national CO₂ emission reduction target by 2030

Jeong, Kwangbok,Hong, Taehoon,Kim, Jimin Elsevier 2018 Energy and buildings Vol.158 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>To achieve the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction target (CERT) in the building sector established together with the launching of POST-2020, various countries are introducing the emission trading scheme (ETS), which is considered to have a considerable effect on CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction. Towards this end, it is important to establish a reasonable CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark for the effective allocation of CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission allowances. As the previous CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark, however, was focused on the industry sector (e.g., power generation sector, manufacturing sector, etc.), it is difficult to apply to the building sector. To solve this problem, this study aimed to develop a CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark for allocating CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission allowances in multi-family housing complexes (MFHCs). This study was conducted in three steps: (i) establishment of the database; (ii) formation of clusters using a decision tree (DT); and (iii) development of the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark for MFHCs. The nine CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmarks (i.e., 0.03116-0.06667 tCO<SUB>2</SUB>/m<SUP>2</SUP> year) for MFHCs were developed using a DT based on the heating type and the elapsed years, and were validated using the Kruskal-Wallis test and <I>t</I>-test. It was shown that using the developed CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark for MFHCs to calculate the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction in MFHCs satisfied the national CERT (18.1%). On the other hand, when the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmarks for MFHCs calculated based on the South Korean ETS and the EU ETS, which were applied to the industry sector, were used, the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction was −5.29 and 45.55%, respectively. The proposed CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission benchmark for MFHCs may be useful for policymaking for determining the allocation of CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission allowances for achieving the national CERT.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> A reasonable classification process was proposed using the decision tree method. </LI> <LI> Benchmark was developed to meet the national CO2 emissions reduction target by 2030. </LI> <LI> The data mining and statistical methodologies were used in this study. </LI> <LI> The CO2 emission allowance by cluster was estimated based on CO2 emission benchmark. </LI> <LI> It can help policy-makers in determining the allocation of CO2 emission allowance. </LI> </UL> </P>

ICT가 CO₂ 배출에 미치는 영향: 경제성장, 무역개방성, 금융발전과의 연관관계하에서 분석

김수이 ( Suyi Kim ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2021 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.30 No.2

본 연구는 1990년부터 2016년까지 한국의 정보통신기술(ICT), 무역 개방성, 금융 발전, 경제성장이 CO₂ 배출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 변수의 공적분관계는 Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)공적분 검증을 통해 확인되었다. 장기적으로 경제성장과 CO₂ 배출 간에는 연관관계가 확인되었지만, ICT를 비롯한 다른 요인은 장기적으로 CO₂ 배출량과의 연관관계를 확인하지 못하였다. 한편, 단기적으로 경제성장, ICT는 CO₂ 배출량을 증가시켰으며, 금융발전은 CO₂ 배출량 감소를 가져왔다. 무역개방성은 장기와 마찬가지로 단기에도 CO₂ 배출량에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하였다. 특히 ICT는 장기뿐만 아니라 단기적으로도 CO₂ 배출량 감소에 기여하지 못하였다. ICT를 통한 CO₂ 감축을 유도하기 위해서는 ICT를 활용하여 효율적으로 에너지를 절약할 수 있는 기술의 개발과 보급이 더욱 촉진되어야 할 것이다. This study investigated the impact of information and communication technology (ICT), trade openness, financial development, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions in Korea from 1990 to 2016. The cointegration relationship of the variables was confirmed by an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. In the long-run, economic growth was statistically significant factor in the increase in CO₂ emissions, while other factors, as well as ICT, did not significant factors in the changes in CO₂ emissions. In the long-run, a link between economic growth and CO₂ emissions has been confirmed, but other factors, including ICT, have not been able to confirm the link between CO₂ emissions in the long-run. Meanwhile, in the short-run, economic growth and ICT increased CO₂ emissions, and financial development led to a decrease in CO₂ emissions. Trade openness did not have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions in the short-run as in the long-run. In particular, ICT did not contribute to the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the short-run as well as the long-run. In order to induce CO₂ mitigation through ICT, the development and deployment of technology that efficiently save energy by using ICT should be further promoted.

교토의정서 Annex B 국가의 CO2 배출량 구조변화 분석

김민정,김현석,양지혜 한국환경경제학회 2017 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.26 No.2

This study estimates the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions with a Quandt-Andrews test for detection of structural break with Annex B counties data. The structural break on CO2 emissions took place in 2008 which is 3 year after ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. According to the empirical results, 1% increase in energy consumption leads to 1% and 0.31% increases in income before and after the structural break, respectively. This study also finds the monotonic increase relationship between CO2 emission and income. Regarding to the relationship between renewable energy use and CO2 emissions, 1% increase in renewable energy consumption leads to 0.1% decrease in CO2 emissions until year 2007 and 0.09% decreases after year 2008, respectively. Based on the results of empirical study, we find little evidence of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on reduction of CO2 emissions for Annex B countries. 본 연구는 교토의정서 Annex B 국가들의 CO2 배출량 변화를 분석하였다. Quandt-Andrews 검정을 이용하여 CO2 배출량의 구조변화 시점을 우선적으로 파악하여 그 시점을 기준으로 CO2 배출요인의 변화를 비교 분석하였다. Quandt-Andrews 검정 결과 교토의정서 발효 3년 후인 2008년 CO2 배출량의 구조변화가 확인되었다. 에너지 소비량의 1% 증가가 구조변화 이전에는 1%의 소득 증가를 가져왔으며, 그 이후에는 0.31%의 소득 증가를 가져온 것으로 나타났으며, 분석기간 중 분석대상국의 CO2 배출량은 소득에 대해 단조 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 신재생에너지 소비량의 증가는 구조변화 시점을 전후로 CO2 배출량을 각각 0.1%와 0.09% 감소시킨 것으로 나타났다. 구조변화 시점 이후 에너지 효율성의 상대적으로 감소와 소득 증가에 따른 CO2 배출량의 지속적 증가, 신재생에너지 정책 효과의 미미함 등으로 미루어 볼 때, 교토의정서의 발효가 Annex B 국가들의 온실가스 감축을 가져왔다고 판단하기 어려운 것으로 나타났다.

총요소생산성을 고려한 한국의 CO2 배출량에 대한 EKC 가설 검증: 지역별 CO2 배출량과 GRDP를 중심으로

김수이 ( Su Yi Kim ),정경화 ( Kyung Hwa Jung ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2014 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.23 No.4

본 연구는 우리나라의 지역별 CO2 배출량과 지역별 GRDP데이터를 사용하여 EKC(Environment Kuznets Curve)를 검증하였다. 이 분석을 위해서 1990년부터 2010년 기간동안 우리나라의 15개 광역지방자치단체를 대상으로 한 패널데이터를 구축하였다. 지역별 CO2배출량에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 일인당 GRDP, 인구, 총요소생산성 등을 고려하였다. 그리고 이러한 요인들이 CO2 배출량에 영향을 미치는데 있어서 역 U자형 가설이 성립하는지를 검증하였다. 본 연구에 사용한 분석 방법은 Lantz and Feng(2006)에서와 마찬가지로 패널 GLS모델을 사용하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 우리나라의 경우 EKC 가설이 성립하지 않았지만 총요소생산성의 경우에는 CO2 배출량과 역 U자형 관계가 성립하였다. 본 연구의 의의는 특히 기술진보를 대변하는 총요소생산성이 증가할수록 CO2 배출량이 증가하지만 일정수준 이후에는 CO2 배출량이 감소한다는 것이다. This research tested the EKC (Environment Kuznets Curve) Hypothesis using the CO2 Emissions by region and GRDP. We built the panel data set on the 15 local government region from 1990 to 2010 for this analysis. GRDP, population and total factor productivity was considered as the factors influencing on the regional CO2 Emissions. Analysis method in this research is panel GLS model as Lantz and Feng (2006). The results show that the EKC hypothesis did not hold in Korea but there is inverted U relationship between the CO2 Emissions and total factor productivity. As the total factor productivity grows, the CO2 increased but decreased after a certain level.

조적벽의 CO2 배출비용을 포함한 건설원가 비교에 관한 연구

이병윤,김보라,김광희 한국건축시공학회 2010 한국건축시공학회지 Vol.10 No.3

The carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions that result from construction are one of the main factors causing a global warming problem. It is therefore necessary to make efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in the construction industry. Some researchers have studied CO2 emissions in the industry ; however, there has been a lack of study on CO2emissions cost. Therefore, in this study, the construction costs, including the CO2 emission cost, of masonry wall type, which is a common brick wall, concrete brick wall, and fired brick wall, were examined. The purpose of this study is to compare the construction costs of masonry wall types, including CO2 emission costs. The study found that the CO2 emission costs were highest for the fired brick wall, followed by the concrete brick wall. This research could provide basic information that can be used in other engineering methods to convert CO2 emissions to CO2 emission cost. 건설산업에서 발생하는 CO2배출량은 지구 온난화를 유발하는 주요 원인 중 하나이다. 이에 따라 건설산업에서는 CO2배출량을 줄이기 위해 노력하고 있다. 최근 건축물의 CO2배출량에 관한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있지만 CO2배출비용에 관한 연구는아직 없는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 벽체별(시멘트벽돌벽, 블록벽돌벽, 점토벽돌벽)로 기존 공사비에 CO2배출비용을 포함하여비교해 보았다. 그 결과 CO2배출비용은 점토벽돌벽, 시멘트벽돌벽, 블록벽 순으로 높았다. 본 연구는 CO2배출량을 비용으로 환산하는 방법을 제시함으로써 향후 CO2배출량을 비용측면으로 비교해 볼 수 있는 기초적 자료를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

유럽연합 운송 분야 승용차 CO2 배출성능요건 규정(Regulation (EU) 2019/631)과 그 시행상의 제고요인에 관한 고찰

정혁 서강대학교 유로메나연구소 2020 통합유럽연구 Vol.11 No.1

As passenger cars in the EU road transport in number and CO2 emissions from them is forecast to increase, the European Commission has enacted Regulation (EU) 2019/631 and put it in effect.. This paper is purposed to analyze and discuss the primary contents of the Regulation and elements to be considered in its implementation and draw lessons for South Korean Government. The CO2 emission performance requirements of passenger cars before amendment of the Regulation has been strengthened to be 95gCO2/km from 130gCO2/km when it was amended. It is expanded to cover manufacturers of passenger cars outside the EU. And the manufacturers performing more than the requirements harnessing Eco-innovation is allowed to receive Super credits as short-term rewards for the reduced CO2 emissions but is planned to phase out. However, to have expectations of reduction of CO2 emissions in the long-term, the rewards for reducing CO2emissions should be provided in the long-term for certain. In that aspect, it seems to be necessary for the European Commission to put provisions regarding the rewards additionally in that regulation. Authorizing the governmental competent authority to monitor verification procedures of WLTP to reduce the gap in record between real CO2 emissions and the official emissions, adding a methodology regarding relaxing the emission performance requirements as incentive, considering lowering the requirements as CO2emissions has proved to be more than expected, and the prevalent notion that the diesel cares are highly preferred, seem to be the factors for the European Commission to consider in implementing the Regulation And as for the lessons, the South Korean Government should apply methods of charging penalties with violation frequency reflected in regulating CO2emissions from passenger cars while lowering the requirements corresponding to the additionally reduced emissions on manufacturers of passenger cars

단속류 간선도로에서 지정체와 CO_2 배출량 비교

강진구,오흥운 대한교통학회 2011 大韓交通學會誌 Vol.29 No.6

It has been presumed that the amount of vehicle's CO_2 emission would highly related to vehicle’s cruising speeds on highways. In this study, it was tested if vehicle's CO_2 emissions would relate to the types of highways and the level of congestion. The results showed that the amount of CO_2 emission changes depending on (1) the vehicles' cruising speeds (b) congestion levels, and (c) the types of intersections. It was found that the vehicle acceleration and deceleration methods increases the amount of CO_2 emission up to 12%. It was also found that it changed up to 30% and 40% depending on the level of congestion and the types of intersections, respectively. The findings imply that the amount of CO_2 emission from vehicles should be improved when vehicles' cruising speeds are well managed through congestion management. CO_2 배출량은 차량의 속도와 관련이 있으며. 속도는 도로의 종류에 따라 다르게 나타난다. 그러므로 단속류 간선도로의 차량 당 CO_2 배출량은 교차로 특성과 지정체의 영향을 받을 가능성이 많다. 따라서 교차로의 존재, 지정체의 영향과 차량 당 CO_2 배출량의 분석이 필요하다. 연구 방법은 첫째, 국도를 대상으로 차량의 교차로 통과방법에 따른 차량 당 CO_2 배출량차이를 비교하였다. 둘째, 전체 대상구간에서 자유속도와 지정체 속도에 따른 차량 당 CO_2 배출량차이를 비교하였다. 셋째, 구간별 차량 당 CO_2 배출량차이를 비교하였다. 차량 당 CO_2 배출의 정량화를 위하여 속도에 따른 배출량 곡선을 사용하였다. 연구 결과는 첫째, 교차로에서 감가속 방법에 따라 최대 12%까지 차량 당 CO_2 배출량의 차이가 나타났다. 둘째, 대상 구간 전체에서 지정체로 인해 30%이상 차량 당 CO_2를 배출하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 구간별 비교 결과 교차로 특성 등에 따라 최대 차량 당 40%까지 차이가 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 교차로 통과방법, 통행속도, 교차로 특성을 개선하면 차량 당 CO_2 배출량을 감소할 수 있다는 추론이 가능하다.