North Korea`s New Leadership and Diplomacy: Legacy and Challenges of the Kim Jong Il Era

( Yonghwan Choi ) 이화여자대학교 통일학연구원 2012 Journal of peace and unification Vol.2 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to determine the outlook of North Korea’s foreign relations in the Kim Jong Un era. The new leader of North Korea will have to start everything from the legacy of Kim Jong Il. Therefore, this paper evaluates North Korea’s foreign relations during the Kim Jong Il era and examines the new leadership’s foreign policy challenges. Generally, the behavior of North Korea’s foreign policy is perceived to be deranged or unreasonable. When North Korea’s international political behavior is considered, such analysis is understandable, but it is undesirable to infer a nation’s foreign policy as unreasonable because not only is it then impossible to analyze its foreign policy, but also there is no way to arrange countermeasures. Thus, there must be an analysis regarding North Korea’s perception of the outside world during the post-Cold War period and its logic behind the system. In the post-Cold War era, North Korea started from the bottom with a siege mentality and a negative outlook in the long-term. Here, the North Korean regime’s characteristics of national militarism and a closed national system were combined, and it chose to engage in a provocative activity, nuclear development. The characteristics of North Korea’s foreign relations of the Kim Jong Il era are first, a breakthrough in foreign relations through its nuclear development, second, acquisition of practical support by improving inter-Korean relations, and last, restoration and reinforcement of North Korea-China relations. In other words, as North Korea went through a nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, it realized the usefulness of the nuclear issue, and since then, it has attempted to achieve a breakthrough in foreign relations by raising nuclear-related issues. In addition, as North Korea during the Kim Jong Il era acquired practical gains by improving inter-Korean relations and restoring North Korea-China relations, somehow, it managed to muddle through its foreign relations. The legacy of the foreign relations of the Kim Jong Il era intactly frames the foreign policy for his successor, Kim Jong Un. After all, the key variables that North Korea’s new policymaker needs to consider are China’s existence as a safety valve for its system maintenance, nuclear issues as the key challenge in changing its foreign relations, South Korea’s presence with a will and an ability to give practical support, and internal changes of North Korean society. No one knows what sort of choices the new leadership of North Korea will make. However, the new leadership will have to consider why the prospects of the North Korean system of the Kim Jong Il era, and even today, were always stable in the short-term and unstable in the long-term. Although aggressive foreign policies like nuclear development may be effective in the short-term, unless North Korea solves its fundamental problems like the internal structural problem of its system, a long-term stability of its system will be impossible.

North Korea’s New Leadership and Diplomacy : Legacy and Challenges of the Kim Jong Il Era

Choi, Yonghwan Ewha Institute of Unification Studies 2012 Journal of peace and unification Vol.2 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to determine the outlook of North Korea’s foreign relations in the Kim Jong Un era. The new leader of North Korea will have to start everything from the legacy of Kim Jong Il. Therefore, this paper evaluates North Korea’s foreign relations during the Kim Jong Il era and examines the new leadership’s foreign policy challenges. Generally, the behavior of North Korea’s foreign policy is perceived to be deranged or unreasonable. When North Korea’s international political behavior is considered, such analysis is understandable, but it is undesirable to infer a nation’s foreign policy as unreasonable because not only is it then impossible to analyze its foreign policy, but also there is no way to arrange countermeasures. Thus, there must be an analysis regarding North Korea’s perception of the outside world during the post-Cold War period and its logic behind the system. In the post-Cold War era, North Korea started from the bottom with a siege mentality and a negative outlook in the long-term. Here, the North Korean regime’s characteristics of national militarism and a closed national system were combined, and it chose to engage in a provocative activity, nuclear development. The characteristics of North Korea’s foreign relations of the Kim Jong Il era are first, a breakthrough in foreign relations through its nuclear development, second, acquisition of practical support by improving inter-Korean relations, and last, restoration and reinforcement of North Korea-China relations. In other words, as North Korea went through a nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, it realized the usefulness of the nuclear issue, and since then, it has attempted to achieve a breakthrough in foreign relations by raising nuclear-related issues. In addition, as North Korea during the Kim Jong Il era acquired practical gains by improving inter-Korean relations and restoring North Korea-China relations, somehow, it managed to muddle through its foreign relations. The legacy of the foreign relations of the Kim Jong Il era intactly frames the foreign policy for his successor, Kim Jong Un. After all, the key variables that North Korea’s new policymaker needs to consider are China’s existence as a safety valve for its system maintenance, nuclear issues as the key challenge in changing its foreign relations, South Korea’s presence with a will and an ability to give practical support, and internal changes of North Korean society. No one knows what sort of choices the new leadership of North Korea will make. However, the new leadership will have to consider why the prospects of the North Korean system of the Kim Jong Il era, and even today, were always stable in the short-term and unstable in the long-term. Although aggressive foreign policies like nuclear development may be effective in the short-term, unless North Korea solves its fundamental problems like the internal structural problem of its system, a long-term stability of its system will be impossible.

Evolutionary conservation in multiple faces of protein interaction

Choi, Yoon Sup,Yang, Jae-Seong,Choi, Yonghwan,Ryu, Sung Ho,Kim, Sanguk Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 2009 Proteins Vol.77 No.1

<P>Protein interfaces are believed to be evolutionarily more conserved than the rest of the protein surface, but this has not been properly verified using a large protein structural set. Furthermore, recent systematic protein interaction analyses have proved that proteins interacting with many partners have multiple interfaces to connect protein interaction networks, which have never taken into account for conservation analysis of protein interface. Here, we studied the evolutionary conservation of protein interfaces using a large-scale dataset of 2646 protein interfaces with the classification of homodimeric/heterodimeric and obligatory/transient interactions, considering all their known multiple interfaces. We found that protein interfaces were indeed more conserved than noninterface surfaces, and the conservation level of protein interfaces increased when multiple interfaces were properly considered. These findings suggest that conservation analysis should be a good descriptor for protein interface identification and protein–protein interaction predictions. We applied this evolutionary feature to filter docking decoys and found that protein interface conservation worked remarkably well in selecting the near-native structures from the large number of generated docking complexes. Moreover, we discovered that a strong correlation exist between protein interface size and protein interface conservation, which could be a useful filter for the prediction of protein–protein interactions. Proteins 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.</P>

미국의 대북전략 변화와 북한 핵실험

최용환(Choi Yonghwan) 경기연구원 2006 경기논단 Vol.8 No.4

This article examines how the US global & security strategies have changed in the post-Cold War era. The ultimate goal of US’s statecraft, the expansion of freedom, democracy and human dignity, is nonnegotiable. To protect their Nation and values, The United States seeks to extend freedom across the globe by leading an international effort to end tyranny and to promote effective democracy. Americans believe that all tyrannies threaten the world peace, and some tyrannies, in their pursuit of WMD or sponsorship of terrorism, threaten their immediate security interests as well. From the American perspective, North Korea is the typical tyranny and WMD related country. The North Korean nuclear test on October 9, 2006 is inevitable evidence of WMD development. For that reason, US wants regime change or regime transformation of North Korea. In fact US has various policy options toward North Korea. Firstly, there are several international regime against WMD proliferation, for example Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, Missile Technology Control Regime, Wassenaar Arrangement, Nuclear Suppliers Group and Australia Group ets. Secondly United States itself has retained many regulation acts to restrict trade with North Korea. US policymakers have prepared ‘tailored containment’ against North Korea thorough all kinds of tools above. After the North Korean nuclear test, optimism is harder to maintain. It is crucial to see the big picture and take the long view.

서울시립 청소년수련관 위탁운영 보조금정책에 대한 효과성 평가

최용환(Choi, Yonghwan),장혜성(Jang, Hyeseong) 서울행정학회 2018 한국사회와 행정연구 Vol.29 No.3

본 연구는 2010년부터 2016년까지 서울시립 청소년수련관이 제출한 감사보고서 자료를 바탕으로 서울특별시가 지급한 운영보조금의 효과를 경제성과 공공성으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 서울특별시의 운영보조금은 청소년수련관의 경제성을 높이는데 유의미한 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났지만, 공공성에 미치는 효과는 확인하기 어려웠다. 그리고 사업비 비율이 높아질수록 경제성은 향상되지만 공공성은 낮아졌다. 또한, 전체 인건비대비 사업계약직 인건비율이 높아질수록 청소년수련관의 공공성이 저하되는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 실제 청소년수련관이 공공성보다 수익성에 초점을 맞추어 운영되고 있으며, 계약직 인력의 확대가 공공성을 더욱 악화시키고 있음을 의미한다. 서울시립 청소년수련관의 공공성 회복을 위해서는 보조금 지급을 손실액 보전에서 사업비 규모를 고려하는 방식으로 개선되어야 하며, 보조금 배분을 청소년수련관의 고유한 목적사업을 강화하는 방향으로 개편되어야 할 것이다. This study presents the effectiveness of the subsidy provided by Seoul Government on economic efficiency and publicity of Seoul Youth Centers. The data is based on the audit reports submitted by the Seoul Youth Centers from 2010 to 2016. Results of empirical tests demonstrate that the subsidy of Seoul Government promotes economic efficiency, but it is difficult to confirm the effect on the publicity. As the ratio of cost increases, the level of economic efficiency grows but the level of publicity falls. The ratio of contract employment cost to total employment cost has a negative impact on the publicity of service. The results shows Seoul Youth Centers’ service is focused on profitability rather than publicity, and the expansion of contract workers does make publicity worse. Based on the findings, this study concludes that the subsidy policy of Seoul Youth Centers should be developed in a way that considers the costs of project, not the costs of loss, and the distribution of subsidies should be reorganized in order to strengthen their own purpose.

한국의 통일 정책 평가와 과제

최용환(CHOI Yonghwan) 신아시아연구소 2010 신아세아 Vol.17 No.4

분단 이후 남북한은 수많은 통일 방안을 제시하였다. 한국 정부가 제시한 통일 방안은 기본적으로 기능주의적 접근에 기반하고 있다는 점에서 공통점도 가지고 있다. 하지만 최근의 논의는 강압과 포용을 둘러싼 남남갈등으로 이어지고 있다. 따라서 이 글은 통일과 관련된 다양한 과제를 검토하여, 다층.복합적인 접근 방법을 제안한다. 핵문제를 포함한 북한의 군사적 위협이 심각한 것은 사실이지만, 통일과 관련해서는 북한체제의 정상화도 매우 중요한 과제라고 할 수 있다. 즉, 북한 체제의 변화(정상화) 없이 평화적 통일은 불가능하다. 따라서 북한의 위협에 대한 대처와 함께 북한 체제의 변화와 관련된 정책이 마련되어야 한다. 또한21세기 한국의 미래 발전과 관련하여 북한과의 협력 방안에 대한 관심이 요구됨과 동시에 북한체제의 급작스런 붕괴의 충격에 대한 대비도 필요하다. 따라서 기본적으로는 북한 체제의 연착륙과 남북통합을 위한 과제에 집중하면서, 북한의 위협을 관리하고, 급작스런 변화로 인한 위험요인에 대한 대비가 동시에 이루어져야 할 것이다. ROK aims for the change of North Korea to become a normal state in international society and, ultimately, the peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula. However, ROK's North Korean policy has been circling between the enforcement and the engagement, depending on the governing party. There has been no middle ground for dealing with North Korea. Based on all these observations and analysis, this research suggests "Multi Dimensional Engagement toward North Korea"as a way of changing North Korea. The essence of this approach is that ROK should try to engage North Korea in a more multi-dimensional and complicated way. It means that ROK should pursue all together recovery and build up of North Korean economy, humanitarian assistance, North Korean version of Perestroika and Glasnost, social integration of North and South Koreans, management of ideological conflicts within ROK and its citizens while continuously making efforts in solving political and military issues with North Korea. North Korean nuclear programs are a real threat to ROK and other countries. However, the change of North Korea will lead to the peaceful solution of these nuclear threats. The multi dimensional engagement would contribute to the change of North Korea.

OECD국가의 ‘청년 니트(NEET)’ 유입에 대한 영향요인 연구

최용환(Choi, Yonghwan) 한국청소년정책연구원 2015 한국청소년연구 Vol.26 No.4

최근 OECD 국가에서 청년 니트 문제가 심화되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 2005년부터 2013년까지 OECD국가를 대상으로 20세부터 29세의 ‘청년 니트’ 유입에 대한 영향요인을 실증분석하였다. 구체적으로 실증모형은 기존연구의 문헌분석을 통해 경제활동인구, 경제성장률, 장기실업률, 고졸과 대졸의 임금격차, 적극적 노동시장정책(재정지원, 법적지원)을 고려하여 동적패널분석을 실시하였다. 특히, 경제발전 수준은 청년 니트 유입과 관련성이 높기 때문에 경제발전의 양적 지표인 ‘1인당 GDP’뿐만 아니라 질적 지표인 ‘총요소생산성(TFP)’도 포함하였다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 학력에 따른 임금격차는 청년 니트 유입을 높이는 유의미한 영향요인이었다. 둘째, 장기실업률이 높아지면 청년 니트의 유입도 높아졌고, 경제성장률이 높아지면 청년 니트의 유입은 낮아졌다. 셋째, 적극적 노동시장정책은 재정지원, 법적지원 모두 청년 니트의 유입을 낮추는 효과가 있었고, 총요소생산성의 증가에도 동일한 효과가 나타났다. 나아가 총요소생산성의 구성요인을 R&D역량, 교육역량, 제도특성으로 세분화하여 청년 니트의 유입에 미치는 효과를 추정하였다. 교육역량 중에서 PISA성취도는 청년 니트의 유입과 관련이 없었으며, 평균 교육년수가 높아지면 오히려 청년 니트의 유입이 높아졌다. 반면 경쟁력 있는 인재를 양성하는 교육제도(educational system)와 대학교육(university education)은 연령대가 높은 청년 니트의 유입을 낮추는 효과가 있었다. 이러한 결과는 평균 교육년수와 PISA 성취도가 높으면서, OECD 국가 중에서 청년 니트의 규모도 큰 우리나라에게 시사점을 준다. The present study analyzed the factors influencing the influx of the 20-29 year old NEET population, employing the Dynamic Panel Model based on OECD data from the year 2005 to 2013. As for the economic growth rate, GDP per capita and Total Factor Productivity were also included, and these were closely linked to the influx of NEETs. Firstly, wage disparity based on academic achievement was a significant factor of influence in raising the NEET population. If the long-term unemployment rate rose, the influx of NEETs increased, when it decreased, the economic growth rate dropped. NEETs can be affected by economic conditions. On the other hand, an active labor market policy(ALMP) had an lowering effect on the influx of NEETs, as did TFP. Considering this, the present study sub-divided TFP components into three factors; R&D, educational competencies, and institutional characteristics to estimate their specific influences on the influx of NEETs. As for the educational competencies, PISA had no correlation with NEETs whereas the increase in average schooling accompanied an increase in the NEET population. Meanwhile, university education and an educational system that produces competitive human resources had an lowering effect on the inflow of the older NEET population.

북한의 시장화와 국가성격 변화

최용환(Choi, Yonghwan),김소연(Kim, Soyeon) 북한대학원대학교 2017 현대북한연구 Vol.20 No.3

한미동맹 재조정과 주한미군 : 경기도의 입장과 정책방향 연구

최용환(Yonghwan Choi),박성호,김희은,좌승희 경기연구원 2007 경기개발연구원 기본연구 Vol.2007 No.11

Gyeonggi has it's own regional peculiarities, in particular its proximity to North Korea and consequentially the majority of U.S. Military camps. These bases are being moved from northern Gyeonggi province to Pyeongteak, a region USFK has not previously been heavily active. With this move Gyeonggi finds itself in charge of all the problems related to redeployment. Since military and national security issues have been under the central government's authority, local government and communities' have not been consulted regarding policy. Even when there has been damage resulting from its directives, those affected have not been adequately compensated. However, as democracy and local self-government have advanced, we are facing a new situation where it is no longer possible for the central government to dictate policy. Such changes have a direct bearing on issues such as the readjustment in the ROK-U.S. alliance and the redeployment of USFK. Many issues have arisen from the readjustment in the ROK-U.S. alliance, but in this study we will discuss the problems local communities and governments face as a result of redeployment, There has been a dire lack of discussion on how to reflect the interests of those affected. Indeed, while there has been heated debate regarding deployment of USFK troops here, with one side arguing for complete withdrawal the other exclaiming the necessity of the ROK-U.S. alliance, there has been little discussion of how to deal with problems and damage resulting directly from the redeployment of USFK. Although there is controversy surrounding the development of democracy in South Korea, compare to the period prior to 1987, the so called authoritarianism order era in Korea, it is clear that Korean government has advanced in terms of procedural democracy. Such domestic change in Korea has led to dialogue on national issues like the redeployment of USFK. In this study, we discuss the readjustment in the ROK-U.S. Alliance and USFK problems based on Korean internal change and necessity. To sum up, "Central government's one-way policy, which does not reflect local communities' interests, has a high possibility of failure." When government decides on policy, it must take into consideration local citizens' opinions, even on issues of national security. Readjustment in the ROK-U.S. Alliance may be determined through inter-governmental discussion between Korea and the U.S.A., but how that policy is conducted is not up to the central government alone. In short, if we hope for a successful, future-oriented development in the ROK-US alliance, our two governments are required to consider both the "what" and "how" of policy.

청년 실업률의 영향요인과 정책방향 탐색

최용환(Choi, Yonghwan) 한국청소년정책연구원 2015 한국청소년연구 Vol.26 No.2

최근 10년간 청년 실업문제의 해결을 위한 정부의 적극적 노동시장 유인정책과 고용창출 노력은 실효성을 거두지 못했다. 이에 본 연구는 한국의 청년 실업률을 낮추기 위한 정부정책의 방향이 제대로 이루어졌는지, 혹시 그렇지 못했다면 앞으로 정책방향이 어떻게 변화해야하는지 탐색하였다. 이를 위해 한국의 청년니트 유입추세가 완화된 2000년부터 2013년까지 다국가 패널분석을 실시하였다. 구체적으로 실증모형은 정부규모를 대리변수로 하여 적극적 정부정책이 청년 실업률을 낮출 수 있는지 알아보았다. 또한 높은 교육수준과 비정규직 고용형태 등을 고려하여 한국 청년 실업문제의 원인도 분석하였다. 고정효과(fixed effect)모형과 확률효과(random effect)모형으로 분석한 결과, 정부주도의 고용창출 노력과 청년 실업률 감소의 관련성을 찾기 어려웠다. 그리고 비정규직이 청년 실업을 일정 부분 낮추는 효과가 있음이 확인되었다. 그러나 1990년 이후 한국 노동시장의 비정규직은 정규직으로 이어지는 과정보다는 함정에 놓일 가능성이 높다는 지적을 감안하면 청년 실업의 감소를 위한 비정규직 활성화 정책은 신중을 기해야 한다. 무엇보다 평균 교육년수의 분석결과를 고려할 때, 한국의 청년 실업문제를 개선하기 위한 중등교육의 질적 역량강화가 요구된다. 따라서 우리나라 교육의 거품(education bubble)을 걷어내고 질적 수준을 제고하기 위해서는 중등교육의 교육과정 다변화, 직업교육의 강화, 대학구조조정을 통한 교육체질 개선이 필요하다. Over the past 10 years, despite constant attempts by Government through a series of policies aimed at lowering the youth unemployment rate, no satisfactory nor substantial improvement has been achieved. Under these circumstances, the present study investigated whether Government policies for lowering youth unemployment are moving in the right direction or, if not, which direction they should betaking. For this purpose, panel data analysis (utilizing both a fixed effect model and random effect model) for the cross-country database was conducted from 2000 to 2013-with attention paid to young NEETs in Korea. Specifically, in terms of the empirical model, the present study examined whether active labor market policies could bring down the youth unemployment rate, employing the ‘size of government’ as a proxy variable. Additionally, the major causes for Korean youth unemployment were investigated in view of some unique domestic factors such as the high standards of education and part time employment. It confirmed that youth unemployment policies led by the Government have no significant relevance to the youth unemployment rate when they were analyzed by both the fixed effect model and random effect model. It was also noted that there exists a trap effect driven from part time employment. Of special interest is that, in the light of the results taken from analyzing the average years of schooling, the policy implications for improving youth unemployment lies in qualitative improvement of our secondary education system. Accordingly, it can be suggested that curricular changes in secondary education and structural adjustment in colleges can induce the bursting of the current education-bubbles and, in turn, help mitigate the youth unemployment rate in Korea.