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한국 시스템다이내믹스 연구경향분석: 7년의 성과와 반성, 그리고 제안
홍영교 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2007 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 춘계학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.2007 No.-
This paper executes positives analysis about the thesis of 100 volumes which were published for 2000-2006 years through ``Korean system Dynamics Journal``, to grope and to see the academic developments o Korean System Dynamics. The summarized analysis results are same as follows. First, korean system Dynamics researches appear that quantitative researches are much more than qualitative ones. Second, the researches that aimed to solve problem are relatively much more than theory-oriented ones. Third, System Dynamics researches in the department of social science are more abundant than that of science and engineering. Based on these results, for establishing of Korean System Dynamics identity, we will work hard to study qualitative researches, increase the research domains and elevate the academic statue of system Dynamics.
시스템 사고를 활용한 정책형성의 고도화 방안 연구: 환경성이 내재화된 도시기본계획을 중심으로
홍영교 ( Hong Young-kyo ),최정석 ( Choi Jeong-seok ),이만형 ( Lee Man-hyung ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2021 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.22 No.2
This paper studies ways to improve policy formation using systems thinking to prevent or ameliorate confusion or policy conflict. In this study, the overall structure are identified by utilizing systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to pinpoint policy situations that are opposed by the development-oriented logic of urban planning and the conservation-oriented logic of environmental planning. And to resolve the problem, we propose an alternative plan called integrated urban master plan where the environmental factors are internalized. By the improvement policy formation using systems thinking, problems can be prevented in advance and policy delays or side effects can be minimized.
지역의 인구구조 변화에 따른 지방재정의 동태성 : 시스템사고에 따른 상호작용의 피드백구조 분석
홍영교(YoungKyo Hong),최남희(NamHee Choi) 미래학회 2021 미래연구 Vol.6 No.1
저출산·고령화와 인구이동의 쏠림 현상으로 인해 지역의 미래 인구구조가 매우 동태적인 변화를 나타내고 있다. 지역의 인구구조 변화가 사회경제 시스템에 커다란 영향을 미치고 있는 상황에서 본 연구는 인구구조 변화와 지방재정 간에는 어떠한 요인들이 서로 영향을 주고받는 지배적인 인과순환적 구조로 작동하며, 그 결과에 따라 인구구조 변화와 지방재정에는 어떠한 변화 패턴이 나타날 수 있는가를 살펴보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과 지역의 인구구조는 기본적으로 국가 전체적인 저출산, 고령화 경로에 따라 변화하고 있으나 최근에는 수도권으로의 청년인구 쏠림과 비수도권으로의 고령인구 쏠림으로 인해 수도권과 비수도권 간에는 매우 상이한 인구구조 패턴이 나타나기 시작했다. 특히, 두 지역 간의 인구 규모가 빠르게 역전되고, 비수도권 지역에서는 계속해서 저출산ㆍ고령화와 인구소멸이 가속화 되는 강화 피드백구조가 지배적으로 작동하고 있었다. 또한, 이러한 인구구조 변화로 인해 비수도권 지역에서는 생산연령인구가 계속해서 빠르게 감소함에 따라 사회경제시스템의 활력과 기반이 약화 되어 재정력(재정자립도)은 억제되는 반면 고령인구의 급속한 증가로 인해 의무지출 등 재정압박은 커지는 이중고가 강화되는 피드백 구조적가 작동하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 인구구조 악화와 지방재정 약화라는 강화 피드백구조 작동에 따른 비수도권 지역의 지방소멸에 대응하기 위해서는 정책대응 타이밍을 놓치지 말고 우선적으로 20-30 청년인구가 지역을 떠나지 않고 정착할 수 있는 일자리 창출과 같은 기회확충뿐만 아니라 유효한 재정분권 실현 등 효과적인 정책 지렛대들을 가동해야만 한다. This study focuses on studying the dynamics of local finances according to the changes in population structure. The reinforcing feedback loops and balancing loops between changes in demographic structure and multidimensional interaction relations between local finance were identified, and through this, the dominant future change behaviors in terms of local finance were reviewed. As a result of the study, as can be seen as a reversal of the population in the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, it was found that the concentration of young and production-age populations in the metropolitan area was high. As a result, it can be seen structurally that the problem of increasing welfare demand centered on the 65-year-old elderly population is solidifying at a time when the foundation of the local socio-economic system is weakening and the local fiscal independence is decreasing. In other words, it was clearly revealed that the possibility of regional extinction gradually increased due to the concentration of the population. To solve this problem, research should reduce the burden on the working-age population so that the population of each region can be secured. In particular, efforts to allow young people to settle in the region should be the most central so that they can get out of the extreme future situation of regional extinction. In addition, various policy interventions to secure the soundness of local finances and measures to incorporate the elderly population into the economic population should be sought.
우로보로스 효과(Ouroboros Effect)와 그 네트워크의 인과적 특성 연구
홍영교 ( Young Kyo Hong ),김태연 ( Tae Yeon Kim ),최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),이만형 ( Man Hyung Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.2
This article deals with a Causal-Loop analysis of the characteristics of Ouroboros effects. The meaning of the effects is that solutions to problems are usually intended as final fixes, but more often than not, while solving one problem, they generate more problems. It means ``to worsen through attempts to make better``. The Ouroboros effects are very dangerous because they are regarded as a kind of self-destructive mechanisms. While existing researchers recognize the risks of the effects, they are not able to solve the systematic problem but only to describe the symptom. Such a way to deal with the effects results in difficulty to clarify the cause-and-effect relationship within the system. Thus the authors are focusing on explaining the effects by SD (System Dynamics), which are considered as the sole methodology to do effectively so far since SD is a great tool to discover structural causes. To solve the self-destructive problem of the effects, the authors analyze the characteristics of several cases of the effects in elaborating the CLD (Causal Loop Diagram) for each case. The analysis reveals the structural characteristics of the effects and how to correct them towards maintaining the sustainability of systems.