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아파트 전세가율의 변동이 아파트 매매가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 역전세 발생 가능성을 중심으로 -
성주한 한국부동산원 2023 부동산분석 Vol.9 No.2
Reverse chonsei refers to the fact that the sale price is lower than the chonsei price when the two-year period of chonsei is expired. It can occur due to the increase in the apartment chonsei rate when chonsei is contracted in the case of the high chonsei rate. The results shows that the current chonsei rate without time difference had a negative (‒) effect on the current sale price in common. During the Park Geun-hye administration sales prices were low, while chonsei prices were high in both the metropolitan area and Busan/Ulsan. If the chonsei rate is high, the current sales price will fall. In the situation there is no possibility of gap investment. On the other hand, during the Moon Jae-in administration, the increase in the sales price was greater than the increase in the chonsei price in both the metropolitan area and Busan and Ulsan. In the situation, the chonsei rate decreased. Excessive mortgage from a bank skyrocketed the sale price. In addition, in the Seoul metropolitan area during the Park Geun-hye administration, high chonsei prices had a negative (‒) impact on the plunge of sale prices when the two-year period of chonsei would be expired, which led to a possibility of reverse chonsei. On the other hand, in Busan and Ulsan during the Moon Jae-in administration, high chonsei prices elevated sale prices in general after 24 months. Although there was little concern about reverse chonsei, a lot of capital gains could be made by transfer. 본 연구와 관련되는 역전세 현상은 아파트 전세가율 상승에 의해 나타날 수 있는 현상으로서, 전세가율이 높은 상황에서 전세계약시 전세가격과 2년 이후 전세기간 만료시 매매가격과의 비교에서 매매가격이 전세가격보다 낮을 경우 나타나는 현상이다. 본 연구의 결과에서 시차가 없는 현재의 아파트 전세가율은 현재의 아파트 매매가격에 공통적으로 부(‒)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 파악되었다. 박근혜 정부에서는 수도권과 부산 ․ 울산 모두 아파트 매매가격이 낮고 아파트 전세가격이 높은 상황에서, 현재 아파트 전세가율이 높은 경우 현재 아파트 매매가격이 하락한다는 것으로, 갭투자 가능성은 없다. 반면, 문재인 정부에서는 수도권과 부산 ․ 울산 모두 아파트 전세가격 증가폭보다 아파트 매매가격의 증가폭이 큰 경우 아파트 전세가율이 낮아지는데, 은행으로부터 많은 돈을 대출받아 아파트를 구매하기 때문에 아파트 매매가격을 상승시키는 것으로 파악되었다. 또한 박근혜 정부에서 수도권의 경우 현재 아파트 전세가율이 높은 상황에서 24개월 후 아파트 매매가격을 하락시키는 부(‒)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 판단되어 역전세의 가능성은 있다. 반면, 문재인 정부에서 부산 ․ 울산의 경우 현재 아파트 전세가율이 높은 경우 24개월 후 아파트 매매가격을 상승시키는 것으로, 역전세의 우려는 없지만, 오히려 양도를 통해 큰 자본이득을 얻는 것으로 판단되었다.
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창원시의 아파트 매매가격형성에 대한 영향요인 분석 - 미분양 아파트의 영향을 중심으로 -
성주한 한국주거환경학회 2019 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.17 No.1
This study is time series analysis to investigate the factors affecting the formation of apartment sale price in Changwon city centered on unsold apartments. The VEC (2) model of the vector error correction model (VECM), a dynamic method of time series analysis, was used to understand the response and impact of the shock. The results of this study are as follows. Changwon apartment sales price is the most influential variables Changwon Unsoldment and Changwon apartment chonsei price. After the financial crisis, the apartment sales market was not affected by the fundamentals, and the effects of unsold housing and chonsei prices became more important than macroeconomic variables. The increase in Changwon's unsold housing units is attributable to a decline in demand, compared to an increase in supply. As a result, apartment prices seem to have fallen. In order to control the supply appropriately, it is important to control the supply amount (housing construction permit) through the role of Changwon City's control tower and to establish standards for it. In addition, in order to increase demand, it is possible to stabilize the housing market through financial policy and tax policy for short-term activation of trading and the effect of attractiveness through commercial facility development. In addition, Seoul and the provinces are bipolarized, and it is necessary to make policy decisions according to regional situation. 본 연구는 미분양 아파트를 중심으로 창원시의 아파트 매매가격형성에 대한 영향요인 분석에 관한 연구를 살펴보기 위해 시계열분석을 하였다. 시계열분석의 동태적 방법인 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)의 VEC(2) 모형을 통해 충격반응함수와 분산분해분석을 하여 충격에 대한 반응과 영향력을 파악하고자 하였다. 연구결과의 요약으로는 창원시 아파트 매매가격에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 변수는 창원 미분양변화율과 창원 아파트 전세가격 변화율인 것으로 나타났다. 금융위기 이후 아파트 매매시장은 펀더멘탈(fundamental)의 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 거시경제변수에 의한 영향보다는 미분양, 전세가격의 영향이 더 중요하게 부각되었다. 창원 미분양이 증가한 것은 공급은 증가한데 반해, 수요가 감소하였기 때문이다. 이로 인해 아파트 매매가격이 하락한 것으로 보인다. 공급의 적절한 조절을 위해서는 창원시의 컨트롤타워로서의 역할을 통해 공급량(주택건설인허가)을 조절하고, 이에 대한 기준을 마련하는 것이 중요할 것으로 생각된다. 또한 수요증가를 위해서 단기적으로 거래활성화를 위한 금융정책과 조세정책을 하고, 상업시설 개발을 통한 집객성 효과를 통해 주택시장을 안정화시킬 수 있다. 게다가 서울과 지방은 양극화인데, 지역별 상황에 따른 정책적 의사결정이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
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성주현(Sung, Joo-Hyun)(成周鉉) 한일민족문제학회 2020 한일민족문제연구 Vol.38 No.-
This article explores the issue of the right to vote in the late 1930s in Korea and how the right to vote was perceived through dictation by the Governor-General’s Bureaucrats. The issue of suffrage in the Korean colony was raised while referring to the Japanese government’s colonial policy based on the principle of “extension of remote areas” immediately after the 3.1 movement, but the Japanese government maintained the early trend of the Korean people’s livelihood as they did not reach a certain level. The suffrage issue, which had been at rest since then, reappeared after the Manchuria Incident in 1931. The issue of the right to vote was raised after careful discussion of the draft system of the Korean people, and the People’s Coalition for Participation, the Jochu, and the Koshien Ministry launched a campaign for the draft system and linked it with the right to vote for the right to vote in the anti-parceleratory payoff of the draft system. Nevertheless, Japan’s position is still premature and is reluctant to grant suffrage. The claim for the deployment of the draft system was raised again as the front line was expanded in the 1937 Sino-Japanese War, and the issue of the right to vote was raised again. The Japanese government and the Korean governor’s office tried to use the issue of suffrage as a means of mobilizing war. On the other hand, colonial bureaucrats did not have a positive view of the suffrage issue. It predicted that there will be a natural suffrage issue based on the slogan of equality and extension of the remote area. Some people were negative about granting the right to vote for North Koreans, but there was no doubt that the issue of the right to vote would be solved by itself if the draft system were put into force. However, the draft system was actually introduced through the volunteer system, but the issue of suffrage remains a problem. This was due to the Japanese government’s colonial policy of separating the issue of military service, namely conscription and suffrage. The draft system will be implemented, but the right to vote will not be granted. The Japanese government maintained its position that it was too early to give up the right to vote because of the low popularity of North Korea. However, colonial officials and the Japanese government have taken seriously the concern that if they grant the right to vote, they will lose the casting boat.In these points, we can see that although the “democracy” was mentioned on the surface, the major factor was the “casting boat.” 本稿は、1930年代後半の植民地朝鮮で展開された参政権の問題とその延 長線上から続く徵兵制について朝鮮総督府官僚の口述を介して参政権につい てどのように認識したのか調べてみた。 植民地朝鮮で参政権問題は3.1運動直後、日本政府の｢內地延長主義｣ を踏まえた植民政策に言及しながら提起されたが、日本政府は、朝鮮の民度 がまだ一定の水準に達していなかったので、時機尙早という基調を一貫して維 持した。以降小康状態にあった参政権問題は、1931年満州事変に展示システ ム基形成され、再び台頭した。慎重に朝鮮人の徴兵制についての議論が提 起され参政権問題は、新たに浮上され國民協會、時中會、甲子俱樂部は徵 兵制要望運動を展開しながら、これを参政権と連携させたいた、すなわち徴兵 制の反對給付に参政権を要求したものだった。それにもかかわらず、日本の立 場はまだ時期尚早を打ち出して参政権付与に消極的に対応している。1937年 日中戦争で戦線が拡大されることによって徴兵制実施を要求する主張が再び 提起され、このかみ合っ参政権問題も再び提起された。日本政府や朝鮮総督 府は、参政権の問題を事実上の戦争動員の手段として利用しようとした。 一方、参政権問題についての植民地官僚は、肯定的な認識もなかった。 一視同仁と內地延長主義をスローガンにする自然参政権問題が発生するものと見た。一部では、朝鮮人の参政権付与は否定的だったが、徴兵制が施行さ れれば参政権問題は自然に解決されると考えもなくはなかった。しかしながら実 際に志願兵制度を経て徴兵制が実施されたが参政権問題は依然として課題と して残った。これは、日本政府の兵役義務つまり徴兵制と参政権の問題を徹底 的に分離する植民地政策をとるたからであった。徴兵制は実施するが参政権は 付与しないというものである。 日本政府は、参政権を付与していない本質的な原因は、朝鮮の民度が低 いということで、まだ時期尚早という立場を固守した。しかしながら植民地官僚や 日本政府は参政権を付与した場合、｢キャスティングボートを奪われることができ るという憂慮｣を真剣に受け入れた。これらの点は、これまで参政権問題は、｢民 度｣は表面的に掲げたが、実質的には｢キャスティングボート｣が主要な要因で あったことを知ることができる。
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자기회귀교차지연모형을 이용한 금융위기 이전과 이후 강남지역과 강남 이외 지역 아파트 전세가격과 매매가격의 관계에 대한 연구
성주한,오준석 韓國不動産學會 2013 不動産學報 Vol.55 No.-
1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to check out whether there is any relationship between Chonsei price and Sale price of a partments in Gangnam area and Non-Gangnam area before and after t he global Financial Crisis in late 2008. (2) RESEARCH METHOD AutoRegressive Cross-Lagged Model(ARCLM) was applied to address the major objectives of this study. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As to our findings, we identified that there is a certain relationship between the Chonsei price and sale price of apartments in Seoul Metropolitan City even after the global financial crisis hit upon Korea in 2008. 2. RESULTS AutoRegressive Cross-Lagged Model(ARCLM) is applied for our study to check the cause and effect relationship between Chonsei and sale price. We found Chonsei price caused sale price to change downward right after the 2008 financial crisis, more prevalent in Gangnam area than Non-Gangnam area in Seoul.
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