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A Numerical Study of Mesoscale Model Initialization with Data Assimilation
민기홍 한국지구과학회 2014 한국지구과학회지 Vol.35 No.5
Data for model analysis derived from the finite volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4,GEOS-4) and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) have been utilized in a mesoscale model. These data are testedto provide initial conditions and lateral boundary forcings to the Purdue Mesoscale Model (PMM) for a case study of theMidwestern flood that took place from 21-23 May 1998. The simulated results with fvGCM and LDAS soil moisture andtemperature data are compared with that of ECMWF reanalysis. The initial conditions of the land surface provided byfvGCM/LDAS show significant differences in both soil moisture and ground temperature when compared to ECMWFcontrol run, which results in a much different atmospheric state in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The simulationresult shows that significant changes to the forecasted weather system occur due to the surface initial conditions,especially for the precipitation and temperature over the land. In comparing precipitation, moisture budgets, and surfaceenergy, not only do the intensity and the location of precipitation over the Midwestern U.S. coincide better when runningfvGCM/LDAS, but also the temperature forecast agrees better when compared to ECMWF reanalysis data. However, theprecipitation over the Rocky Mountains is too large due to the cumulus parameterization scheme used in the PMM. TheRMS errors and biases of fvGCM/LDAS are smaller than the control run and show statistical significance supporting theconclusion that the use of LDAS improves the precipitation and temperature forecast in the case of the Midwestern flood. The same method can be applied to Korea and simulations will be carried out as more LDAS data becomes available.
한국인의 체내 중금속(납, 수은, 카드뮴)의 노출수준 및 노출경로별 기여율 평가 - 제4기 국민환경보건 기초조사(2018~2020) -
민기홍,신지훈,김동준,우재민,성경화,조만수,양원호 한국환경보건학회 2023 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.49 No.5
Background: Exposure levels for heavy metals such as lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and cadmium (Cd) have increased due to human activities. They are known to be a public health concern. Objectives: This study aimed to determine the exposure levels to heavy metals in the blood and urine of South Korean adults and to present the contribution rate of exposure pathways using an exposure algorithm for men aged 19~64, women aged 19~64, and all seniors aged 65 or older. Methods: We analyzed data from the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS) Cycle 4 (2018~2020). A total of 2,646 participants aged ≥19 years were included. Multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the factors affecting heavy metal concentrations. The contribution rate was calculated by applying three exposure algorithms for ingestion, inhalation, and dermal exposure. Results: Factors that commonly affect heavy metal concentrations in blood and urine were gender and age. The main influencing factors for Pb and Cd were education level and smoking status, while frequency of fish consumption and of alcohol consumption were indicated to be the main influencing factors for mercury. The contribution rates of lead and cadmium from food ingestion were 78.03~79.62% and 88.39~92.89%, respectively. Additionally, the highest contribution for mercury was accounted for by food at 81.69~85.77%. As a result of the risk assessment, cadmium was found to pose a potential health risk a with total cancer risk (TCR) of more than 1×10–6. Conclusions: The KoNEHS could be an important study for determining the level of exposure to heavy metals and their influencing factors. Integrated exposure to heavy metals could assess the main exposure pathways, and this methodology could be applied to exposure management of heavy metals.
가습기살균제 피해신청자들의 노출등급 분류 및 폐질환 발생 영향요인 분석
민기홍,신정현,조은경,정다영,류지윤,김동준,배성호,신지훈,이슬아,최윤형,양원호,우재민 한국환경보건학회 2022 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.48 No.6
Background: Lung injuries due to exposure to humidifier disinfectants (HDs) were reported in 2011 in South Korea. As a result of the government’s epidemiological investigation and toxicity test study, it was found that HDs caused health damage such as lung disease. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to classify HD exposure ratings and analyze the affecting factors that could identify the relationship with lung disease. Methods: Exposure assessment for HDs was conducted using a questionnaire during face-to-face interviews with the applicants. Ratings of high exposure (Class 1) and low exposure (Class 2) were cross-tabulated with clinical ratings (acceptable and unacceptable). Logistic regression analysis was carried out by setting the clinical rating of lung disease as a dependent variable and the socio-demographic and exposure characteristics obtained through the questionnaire as independent variables. Results: The concentration in air of polyhexamethylene guanidine (PHMG) was 71.96±107.47 µg/m3, and the exposure concentration was 15.21±23.28 µg/m3. The exposure rating was overestimated with 97.1% of affected subjects having high exposure using margin of exposure (MOE), but only 9.9% matching the clinical class. In the overestimated group, it could be explained by the fact that the exposure time was long and the subjects had already recovered from damage symptoms. As a result of logistic regression analysis, ten variables were found to be significant inf luencing factors. Conclusions: A new exposure rating could be calculated based on the MOE, and factors affecting lung disease could be estimated through comparative evaluation with the clinical rating.
민기홍,장아헌 한국기상학회 2021 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.10
한반도에서 발생하는 폭염은 21세기에 이르러 점차 발생 횟수와 강도가 증가하는 추세이고, 폭염기간 동안 도시별 폭염 발생 날짜 및 강도도 상이하게 나타나고 있다. 현재까지 대규모 및 종관규모 분석을 통한 폭염 연구는 활발히 수행되어 폭염의 발생 메커니즘을 상당수 밝혀냈으나, 한반도의 복잡한 지형을 반영한 연구는 미흡하여 상이한 폭염의 지역적 특징을 이해하기에는 한계가 있다. 2016년과 2018년 전세계적으로 극심한 폭염이 나타나면서 지구 곳곳에서 최고기온 극값을 갱신하였고, 폭염에 의한 온열 피해도 크게 나타나 폭염 예측성 향상을 위한 연구가 국내외에서 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구는 한반도에서 나타나는 폭염에 대한 국지 프로세스 이해를 위해 지상자동관측장비(ASOS)의 기온, 기압, 풍향을 기반으로 군집 분석을 수행하고, ERA-5 재분석 자료를 이용하여 우리나라에서 나타나는 폭염이 크게 영남형, 영서형, 전국형으로 분류될 수 있음을 제시할 것이다. 영남형 폭염은 남고북저의 기압배치로 한반도로 남풍의 바람이 유입될 때 발생한다. 영남지역의 지면 가열로 국지적으로 열적저기압이 생성되면서 남서풍 및 서풍이 내륙에서 강화되고, 서풍이 소백산맥을 넘으며 강한 태양복사와 더불어 풍하측이 풍상측보다 기온이 상승하는 유사 푄현상과 영남 지역으로 유입되는 남풍이 남낙정맥을 넘으며 풍상측에 구름, 풍하측에서 기온이 상승하는 푄현상이 결합되어 폭염이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 이때, 동해안으로 수렴 구역이 나타남을 확인할 수 있다. 영서형 폭염은 한반도 남쪽에 위치하는 열대저기압/태풍에 의해 동풍 혹은 남동풍이 유입될 때, 북태평양 고기압과 열대저기압의 영향으로, 고온다습한 공기가 태백산맥 및 소백산맥을 지나면서 전형적인 푄현상이 나타나 영서지역에 폭염이 발생하였다. 이때, 서해안으로는 바람의 수렴역이 형성되었다. 전국형 폭염은 티벳 고기압 및 북태평양 고기압이 한반도 상층에 중첩되어 위치하면서 지상부터 상층까지 키 큰 고기압이 형성될 때, 한반도에 고기압 돔이 발생하여 고기압 역내의 하강 기류에 의해 한반도 전체가 단열압축에 의한 승온이 발생하고, 고기압 역내에서 지면은 국지적으로 열적저기압에 의한 해풍 유입이 나타나나, 내륙의 대기는 정체되어 열돔 현상에 의한 폭염이 강화되는 구조로 발생하였다. 향후 열대야에 대한 군집 분석과 국지분석을 수행하여 우리나라의 폭염/열대야 예측성 향상을 위한 연구를 지속적으로 진행할 것이다.