연구논문 : 2012년 총선 출구조사 예측오차 분석

곽은선 ( Eun Sun Kwak ),김지연 ( Ji Yeon Kim ),김영원 ( Young Won Kim ) 한국조사연구학회 2013 조사연구 Vol.14 No.3

본 연구에서는 출구조사 예측오차의 발생 원인과 특성을 알아보기 위해 2012년에 치른 19대 총선 출구조사의 자료를 이용하여 출구조사 예측오차를 분석하였다. 예측오차를 정리해 본 결과 새누리당에 대해서는 과소 예측이, 통합야당에 대해서는 과대예측이 발생했으며, 시·도별로 편향 수준에 차이가 있었다. 예측오차를 투표소추출 오차와 실사오차로 구분해 보면 투표소추출오차에 비해 실사오차가 더 심각하였다. 또한 오차를 발생시킬 것으로 예상되는 변인들과 투표소추출오차 및 실사오차와의 상관분석을 통해 조사거절률이 실사오차에 유의한 양의 상관관계를 갖고 있으며, 표본추출률을 증가시키면 투표소추출오차가 감소한다는 사실도 확인할 수 있었다. 한편출구조사를 진행한 세 개 조사기관별로 오차를 비교해 본 결과 특히 실사오차에 있어서 조사기관간의 차이가 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. In this study, we investigate the data of the exit poll for the 19th general election of 2012 to analyze the causes and characteristics of exit poll forecasting error. The empirical studies show that systematic negative bias of candidates affiliated to Saenuri Party is serious in the specific regions. To explore the main causes and effects of the forecasting error, the total survey error is divided by sampling error of the polling sites and non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each polling sites. And we consider relationships among several factors, which are anticipated as main causes of error, and non-sampling error as well as sampling error. As a result of correlation analysis, we can figure out that the nonsampling error of the exit poll mainly come from non-response. Also we consider the house effect in exit poll.

연구논문 : 2008 총선 출구조사의 총조사오차 분석

곽은선 ( Eun Sun Kwak ),김영원 ( Young Won Kim ) 한국조사연구학회 2010 조사연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 논문에서는 2008년 18대 총선의 출구조사 자료를 이용하여 출구조사의 정확성을 평가 할 수 있는 총조사오차 개념을 새로 정의하고, 출구조사에서 발생하는 총조사오차가 투표소추출오차와 투표자 선정 및 응답 과정에서 발생하는 실사오차 중 어떤 것에 더 많은 영향을 받는지 분석했다. 또한 선거구별 무응답률이 총조사오차와 실사오차에 미치는 영향을 분석하였고, 중앙선거관리위원회의 투표율 분석자료를 이용하여 출구조사 표본의 대표성을 검증했다. 분석 결과 선거구 내 표본 투표소 추출 관련 오차보다는 표본투표소 내에서 투표자 선택 및 응답 과정에서 발생하는 오차가 더 컸던 것으로 나타났다. 또한 무응답률과 실사오차는 양의 상관관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 특정한 지지성향을 갖는 사람들의 응답 거절로 인해 표본의 대표성이 떨어지고, 결과적으로 오차가 커지는 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 아울러 선관위와 출구조사 자료에 대한 카이제곱 검정을 통해 성/연령대별 구성비에 유의한 차이가 있다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

회원작품 - 목3동시장 고객지원센터

곽은선,Kwak, Eun-sun 대한건축사협회 2013 建築士 Vol.2013 No.2

재무제표의 비교가능성과 피감기업 감사복잡성 상호작용이 감사노력에 미치는 영향

기은선(제1저자) ( Eun Sun Ki ),곽수근(교신저자) ( Su Keun Kwak ),안혜진(공동저자) ( Hyejin Ahn ) 한국회계학회 2015 회계학연구 Vol.40 No.3

재무제표 사이의 비교가능성(financial statement comparability)이 높다면 재무제표의 이용자가 서로 다른 기업을 손쉽게 비교할 수 있다. 따라서 정보불균형 수준이 감소하고, 그 결과 재무제표 정보를 이용한 의사결정의 수준이 향상된다. 따라서 회계감사를 수행하는 감사인도 비교가능성이 높은 기업에 대해서는 감사노력을 덜 투입하게 된+H10다. 본 연구에서는 이 분야의 선행연구들을 더욱 확장하여, 복잡성(complexity)이 큰 피감기업을 감사할 경우 비교가능성이 감사노력 수준에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 피감기업이 감사하기가 복잡한 경우 감사인은 일정한 감사품질을 유지하기 위해 비교가능성이 높은 피감기업이라고 하더라도 상대적으로 감사노력을 감소시키지 않을 가능성이 높다. 또는 그 반대로 비교가능성이 높다면 복잡한 기업이라도 감사하기가 용이하므로 감사노력이 감소할 수도 있다. 2002년부터 2012년까지 자료를 사용한 실증분석 결과는 전자의 예측을 지지한다. 비교가능성은 감사노력과 유의적인 음(-)의 관계를, 복잡성은 양(+)의 관계를 가지고 있었으며, 비교가능성과 복잡성의 상호작용 변수는 감사노력과 유의적인 양(+)의 관련성을 가지고 있었다. 이 발견은 감사인의 행동에 대해 여러 중요한 시사점을 제공해 준다. This study investigates the effect of the interaction between financial statement comparability and complexity of client firms on the effort level that auditors put into the client during the audit process. The accounting system can be defined as a mapping of underlying economic events to financial statements. Two firms are regarded as having similar accounting systems if they produce comparable financial statements given the same set of economic events (DeFranco et al. 2011; Barth et al. 2012). When financial statements are comparable, users of the information can use it and understand the economic substances underlying the statements. It is because the comparability enable the users to compare the information contained in the statements more easily with those of other firms. These predictions imply that information asymmetry and uncertainty decrease as a result of more comparable information (DeFranco et al. 2011). Prior studies on the financial statement comparability generally document the findings which are consistent with these predictions. For example, DeFranco et al. (2011) report that accuracy of earnings forecasts issued by financial analysts is positively associated with the comparability of the firm, while the dispersion of the forecasts is negatively associated with the comparability. Besides, DeFranco et al.``s (2011) study is monumental in that it develops an empirical way to measure the comparability empirically. Subsequent studies start to apply the measure in various settings. For example, Campbell and Yeung (2012) document that the detrimental impact of an industry peer``s restatement announcement on the stock price increases with the comparability. Choi et al. (2013) report that investors are better able to predict future earnings of firms with comparable financial statements and use the predictions in setting current stock prices. As a result, the magnitude of future earnings coefficient is positively related to the comparability. There are other lines of research that demonstrates the effect of comparability (e.g., DeFond et al. 2011; Fang et al. 2012; Chen et al. 2013; Kim et al. 2013). Ki and Kwon (2014) move the focus of the research on comparability to the auditing area. They argue that auditors can also get the benefits from comparable financial statement information and thus audit the client firms with comparable financial statements more easily. As a result, they find that auditor``s effort level (measured by audit hours) that auditors exert during the audit process decreases for more comparable firms. This study extends the work of Ki and Kwon (2014) and look into the interaction between comparability and complexity of the client firms. It is more time-consuming to audit complex clients (Simunic 1980) and thus auditors need to exert greater level of audit effort to audit complex clients. This study expects that the negative effect of the comparability on audit effort would be attenuated (pronounced) for more complex clients, suggesting that there exists a positive (negative) association between audit effort and the interaction between comparability and complexity of the clients. If auditors try to maintain a similar quality of audit service and thus exert similar level of audit effort for complex clients regardless of the comparability of the clients, the positive association is expected. In contrast, if auditors gain benefits from comparability and are able to reduce audit efforts for even complex clients, the negative association is expected. We perform empirical analyses with 13,275 observations collected over the period from 2002 to 2012. All the non-financial firms, listed in Korean stock market, with available samples are used in the analyses. Because there are several empirical proxies (variables) that represent for the complexity of client firms, we perform factor analysis and derive two common factors related to the complexity. The empirical results support the predictions. First, consistent with Ki and Kwon (2014), financial statement comparabil is negatively associated with audit effort while client complexity is positively associated with the audit effort, suggesting that our sample characteristics are not different from those used in prior studies. Second, the interaction between comparability and complexity is positively associated with audit effort, suggesting that auditors exert a similar level of effort even for complex clients. Third, when we use original variables (not the two factors derived from factor analysis) representing for client complexity (i.e., number of business segments, number of subsidiaries, the ratio of inventory and receivables out of total assets, and the proportion of foreign sales out of total sales), we find that number of subsidiaries are strongly related to thedocumented findings, while the proportion of the foreign operation is also weakly related to the finding. In contrast, we fail to find that the ratio of inventory and receivable is negatively related to the audit effort. These findings provide important implications on the process of audit. We hope future studies look into related issue further.

회원작품 - 한지붕세가족

곽은선,Kwak, Eun-sun 대한건축사협회 2014 建築士 Vol.2014 No.2

2단 크기비례 계통추출법의 분산추정량 효율성 비교

김영원,김예니,한혜은,곽은선,Kim, Young-Won,Kim, Yeny,Han, Hye-Eun,Kwak, Eun-Sun 한국통계학회 2013 응용통계연구 Vol.26 No.6

In this paper, we investigate several variance estimators for pps systematic sampling. Unfortunately, there is no unbiased variance estimators for a systematic sample because systematic sampling can be regarded as a random selection of one cluster. This study provides guidance on which variance estimator may be more appropriate than others in several circumstances. We judge the efficiency of variance estimators for systematic sampling based on of their relative biases and relative mean square error. Also, we investigate variance estimation problems for two-stage systematic sampling applied for the Food Raw Material Consumption Survey and the Establishment Labor Force Survey simulation study, in order to consider the popular two-stage pps systematic sample design for establishment and household survey in Korea. 본 논문에서는 크기비례 계통추출법에서 적용할 수 있는 다양한 분산추정 방법들을 정리하고 각 분산추정 방법들의 통계적 특성에 대해서 논의하였다. 이론적으로 하나의 계통표본을 가지고 비편향 분산추정량을 구하는 것은 불가능 하지만 실제 표본자료 분석에 있어서 어떤 대안이 있을 수 있는지 살펴보고, 다양한 분산추정 방법들의 성질을 상대편향 및 상대평균제곱오차 관점에서 비교해 보았다. 또한 우리나라 가구나 사업체 표본설계에서 흔히 발생하는 2단 크기비례 계통추출 표본에서 적용 가능한 효과적인 분산추정 방법을 알아보기 위해 2008년 사업체근로실태조사 자료의 근로자 평균임금과 2011년 식품원료소비실태조사 자료의 가구당 연평균 쌀 소비량의 분산 추정 문제를 기초로 모의실험을 수행하였다.

고령자의 디지털금융서비스에 대한 지각이 디지털 금융서비스 수용태도와 수용의도에 미치는 영향 : 기술수용이론을 중심으로

박명아(Myeong A Park),김하율(Ha Yul Kim),곽은선(Eun sun Kwak),오민규(Min Gu Oh),임근형(Geun hyung Lim),김선주(Sun Ju Kim),신혜리(Hye Ri Shin),김영선(Young Sun Kim) 경기연구원 2024 GRI 연구논총 Vol.26 No.2

본 연구는 고령자의 디지털금융서비스에 대한 지각이 디지털금융서비스 수용태도와 수용의도에 미치는 영향을 실증하기 위해 기술수용모델(TAM)에 근거하여 연구모형을 도출하였다. 연구목적을 검증하기 위해 경희대학교에서 수행한 2022년 한국 고령자 기술수용도 패널데이터를 활용하고 SPSS 21과 AMOS 20 통계 프로그램을 적용하였다. 고령자의 디지털금융서비스에 대한 지각된 용이성, 지각된 유용성, 수용태도가 디지털금융서비스 수용의도에 미치는 인과관계를 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 디지털금융서비스에 대한 지각된 용이성은 지각된 유용성, 수용태도, 수용의도에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 디지털금융서비스에 대한 지각된 유용성은 수용태도에는 긍정적인 영향을 주지만 수용의도에는 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 디지털금융서비스에 대한 수용태도는 수용의도에 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구는 기존 연구에서 주목하지 않았던 고령자 측면에서 디지털금융서비스 수용의도를 실증하였다. 또한 디지털금융서비스 수용의도의 예측요인을 검증하는데 있어 기술수용이론의 적용가능성을 확인하였다는 연구의의가 있다. 본 연구결과가 고령자의 디지털금융서비스 수용의도를 제고하기 위한 전략적 개입의 이론적, 실무적 기여를 할 수 있으리라 기대한다. A research model was derived based on the Technology Acceptance Model(TAM) to demonstrate the effect of the elderly’s perception of digital financial services on their attitude and intention to accept digital financial services. To verify the research purpose, the 2022 Korean Senior Technology Acceptance Panel data conducted at Kyung Hee University was used and SPSS 21 and AMOS 20 statistical programs were applied. The results of analyzing the causal relationship between perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, acceptance attitude and acceptance intention of digital financial services among the elderly are as follows. First, the perceived ease of use of digital financial services was found to have a positive effect on perceived usefulness, acceptance attitude and acceptance intention of digital financial services. Second, The perceived usefulness of digital financial services was found to have a positive effect on acceptance attitude but had no significant effect on acceptance intention of digital financial services. Lastly, the acceptance attitude toward digital financial services was confirmed to have a positive effect on acceptance intention of digital financial services. The significance of this study is that it empirically analyzed the intention to accept digital financial services from the perspective of the elderly and confirmed the applicability of Technology Acceptance Theory(TAM) in verifying the predictors of intention to accept digital financial services. It is expected that the results of this study can make theoretical and practical contributions to strategic interventions to enhance the elderly’s intention to accept digital financial services.

중 · 고령자 노화에 대한 태도와 우울과의 관계 연구: 정보통신기술 활용능력의 조절효과를 중심으로

엄사랑(Um, Sarang),신혜리(Shin, Hyeri),조시울(Cho, Si Wool),김지원(Kim, Ji Won),곽은선(Kwak, Eun Seon),김영선(Kim, Young Sun),한기명(Han, Ki Myung),Wajahat Ali Khan 한국노인복지학회 2023 노인복지연구 Vol.78 No.2

병풀(Centella asiatica) 엑스-베타시클로텍스트린 고체 분산체를 함유한 폴록사머 407 히드로겔 제조 및 피부투과

김경국,곽은선,이계원,박진규,박목순,지웅길 충남대학교 약학대학 의약품개발연구소 1998 藥學論文集 Vol.14 No.-

Extract of Centella asiatica(ECA), which is poorly water-soluble extract from the Centella asiatica is known to express excellent wound healing properties. ECA-β-cyclodextrin (asiaticoside-β-cyclodextrin and genin-β-cyclodextrin) solid dispersion system, which was prepared by freeze-drying method, was formulated as gels containing poloxamer 407 and propylene glycol, and evaluated with respect to their viscosity. stability, skin permeation and drug amount in the skin of hairless mouse. The average molar ratio asiaticoside-β-CD and genin-β-CD was 1:1,7 and 1:22, respectively. When the molar ratio of genin and β-CD was 1:5, madecassic acid made 100% solid dispersion system and asiatic and about 65%. In dissolution study, >99% of asiaticoside from asiaticoside-β-CD was dissolved in 5 minutes, and >99% madecassic acid and >64% asiatic acid from genin-β-CD. The apparent viscosity of poloxamer 407 gels with ECA-β-CD solid dispersion system increased in proportion to poloxamer 407 and gels showed that asiaticoside was most stable and madecassic acid stable and asiatic acid similar to stability of gel with free ECA. The permeation amount of asiaticoside in poloxamer gels through-hairless mouse skin decreased as the concentration of poloxamer 407 increased. When propylene glycol was added at the level of 10%, the permeation amount of asiaticoside at poloxamer gels through hairless mouse skin increased but from 15% it decreased. The permeation of asiaticoside into the skin of hairless mouse was estimated to be about 0.10 ㎍/㎠.

병풀(Centella asiatica)엑스 - 베타시클로덱스트린 고체 분산체를 함유한 폴록사머 407 히드로겔 제조 및 피부투과

지웅길,박목순,이계원,박진규,김경국,곽은선 한국약제학회 1998 Journal of Pharmaceutical Investigation Vol.28 No.1

Extract of Centella asiatica(ECA), which is poorly water-soluble extract from the Centella asiatica is known to express excellent wound healing properties. ECA-β-cyclodextrin (asiaticoside-β-cyclodextrin and genin-β-cyclodextrin) solid dispersion system, which was prepared by freeze-drying method, was formulated as gels containing poloxamer 407 and propylene glycol, and evaluated with respect to their viscosity, stability, skin permeation and drug amount in the skin of hairless mouse. The average molar ratio asiaticoside-β-CD and genin-β-CD was 1:1.7 and 1:22. respectively. When the molar ratio of genin and β-CD was 1:5, madecassic acid made 100% solid dispersion system and asiatic acid about 65%. In dissolution study. >99% of asiaticoside from asiaticoside-β-CD was dissolved in 5 minutes, and >99% madecassic acid and >64% asiatic acid from genin-β-CD. The apparent viscosity of poloxamer 407 gels with ECA-β-CD solid dispersion system increased in proportion to poloxamer 407 and propylene glycol concentration. In the accelerated stability test, all ECA-β-CD poloxamer 407 gels showed that asiaticoside was most stable and madecassic acid stable and asiatic acid similar to stability of gel with free ECA. The permeation amount of asiaticoside in poloxamer gels through hairless mouse skin decreased as the concentration of poloxamer 407 increased. When propylene glycol was added at the level of 10%, the permeation amount of asiaticoside at poloxamer gels through hairless mouse skin increased but from 15% it decreased. The permeation of asiaticoside into the skin of hairless mouse was estimated to be about 0.10㎍/㎠.