한·중 FTA에 따른 산업부문별 수출 변화와 CO₂ 배출량 변화 예측

하인봉,이광석,Ha, Inbong,Lee, Kwangsuck 한국자원경제학회 2010 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.19 No.1

본고는 한 중 FTA가 체결되어 이행될 경우 대표적인 온실가스인 이산화탄소가 수출 증대를 통해 우리나라에 얼마나 더 많이 배출될 것인가를 분석하고자 하였다. 한 중 FTA 체결에 따른 관세율의 변화가 미래의 산업별 수출에 어떠한 경제적 파급효과를 가져올 것인지를 동태적으로 예측한 후 산업부문별 이산화탄소($CO_2$) 배출변화를 분석하였다. 한국의 대 중국 수출물량 추정을 위해 Bayesian Kalman Filter Vector Auto-Regression(BVAR) 모형을 이용하였다. 이 추정결과를 활용하여 이산화탄소 배출량 변화를 현행체제(Non FTA) 시나리오와 FTA 추진 시나리오를 대비한 결과, 산업 전체를 총합해 보면 2010년 4분기에 이르면 한 중 간 FTA 추진 시나리오(현행 대비 관세율 50% 감소)의 경우가 현행 시나리오보다 수출 증가를 통해 이산화탄소 배출량을 1.96% 증가시킬 것으로 나타났다. 또한 2012년부터 완전 무관세가 실시되는 것을 가정한 시나리오에 따라 2014년 4분기에 이르면 FTA 추진에 따라 이산화탄소 배출량이 현행 시나리오 경우보다 2.06% 증가 배출되는 것으로 예측되었다. 전체적으로 볼 때 한 중 간 FTA 추진에 따른 대 중국 수출액 순증가가 우리 국내에 추가적으로 배출시키는 이산화탄소량은 비교적 크지 않을 것으로 분석되었다. This paper measures the impacts of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the emissions of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) in Korean export industries. The Korean industrial exports were forecasted by employing Bayesian Kalman Filter Vector Auto-Regression (BVAR) model. The emissions of $CO_2$ were then estimated by applying the $CO_2$ emission coeffcients on the conditionally forecasted values of export by industries. Under the conditional scenario of the 50% reduction in current tariff rate through FTA between Korea and China, the total $CO_2$ emissions in Korea were expected to increase by 1.96% compared to the BAU (Non FT A) trend at the end of 2010. Another conditional scenario with no tariff after 2012 was also adopted. In this case, the total $CO_2$ emlssions were estimated to increase by 2.06% compared to the BAU up until the end of 2014. These facts imply that the FTA between Korea and China would not result in the significant increase of $CO_2$ emissions in Korea.

부동산가격의 변동요인 분석 : 지가변동을 중심으로

하인봉,김병구 慶北大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1999 經商論集 Vol.27 No.2

A Study on Climate Change Adaptation Regional Index

하인봉,이영환 한국산업경제학회 2015 산업경제연구 Vol.28 No.1

The Climate Change Adaptation Regional Index (CCARI) used in this paper represents a proxy measure of climate change adaptation performance and provides a quantitative basis for analyzing climate change adaptation practices. Based on three unequally weighted 16 categories, their combination forms a picture of the climate change adaptation in the 16 different regions of Korea. The three major categories are the CO2 Emission Trend, Energy Efficiency Level, and Climate Change Policy. The results showed that the adaptation performances by the 16 regions were not completely linked to the systematic planning of local governments for climate change adaptation, but the result of regional economic development policy.

Implicit Coordination of Interest Rate, Money and Government Spending for GDP

하인봉,이영환 한국의정연구회 2016 의정논총 Vol.11 No.2

One important goal of economy management is the pursuit of economic growth with price stabilization through monetary policy and fiscal policy. However, the interactive coordination of monetary and fiscal policies by central authorities remains controversial. This paper results were as follows. although no explicit causal relations were identified between the individual policy instrument variables and GDP, an implicit policy coordination of these instrument variables and GDP was found when using co-integration and VECM. This study is to introduce and demonstrate the concept of implicit coordination to describe the combined impact of policy instrument variables on GDP, especially in the absence of any explicit causal relations: The results indicate an implicit complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy, instead of the traditional substitutability. It is also important to note that the monetary policies responded slowly to GDP and the monetary variables – interest rate and money supply – switched roles as the time horizon spread over future periods. .

Effect of early chemoradiotherapy in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer

하인봉,강기문,정배권,정호진,최훈식,채규영,강명희,김훈구,이경원,나재범 대한방사선종양학회 2013 Radiation Oncology Journal Vol.31 No.4

Purpose: We evaluated the effect of early chemoradiotherapy on the treatment of patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). Materials and Methods: Between January 2006 and December 2011, thirty-one patients with histologically proven LS-SCLC who were treated with two cycles of chemotherapy followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. The chemotherapy regimen was composed of etoposide and cisplatin. Thoracic radiotherapy consisted of 50 to 60 Gy (median, 54 Gy) given in 5 to 6.5 weeks. Results: The follow-up period ranged from 5 to 53 months (median, 22 months). After chemoradiotherapy, 35.5% of the patients (11 patients) showed complete response, 61.3% (19 patients) showed partial response, 3.2% (one patient) showed progressive disease, resulting in an overall response rate of 96.8% (30 patients). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival (OS) rates were 66.5%, 41.0%, and 28.1%, respectively, with a median OS of 21.3 months. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression free survival (PFS) rates were 49.8%, 22.8%, and 13.7%, respectively, with median PFS of 12 months. The patterns of failure were: locoregional recurrences in 29.0% (nine patients), distant metastasis in 9.7% (three patients), and both locoregional and distant metastasis in 9.7% (three patients). Grade 3 or 4 toxicities of leukopenia, anemia, and thrombocytopenia were observed in 32.2%, 29.0%, and 25.8%, respectively. Grade 3 radiation esophagitis and radiation pneumonitis were shown in 12.9% and 6.4%, respectively. Conclusion: We conclude that early chemoradiotherapy for LS-SCLC provides feasible and acceptable local control and safety

Who Really Benefits from 3D-Based Planning of Brachytherapy for Cervical Cancer?

하인봉,정배권,강기문,정호진,이윤희,최훈식,이종학,최원준,신정규,송진호 대한의학회 2018 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.33 No.18

Background: Although intracavitary radiotherapy (ICR) is essential for the radiation therapy of cervical cancer, few institutions in Korea perform 3-dimensional (3D)-based ICR. To identify patients who would benefit from 3D-based ICR, dosimetric parameters for tumor targets and organs at risk (OARs) were compared between 2-dimensional (2D)- and 3D-based ICR. Methods: Twenty patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who underwent external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) following 3D-based ICR were retrospectively evaluated. New 2D-based plans based on the Manchester system were developed. Tumor size was measured by magnetic resonance imaging. Results: The mean high risk clinical target volume (HR-CTV) D90 value was about 10% lower for 2D- than for 3D-based plans (88.4% vs. 97.7%; P = 0.068). Tumor coverage did not differ between 2D- and 3D-based plans in patients with tumors ≤ 4 cm at the time of brachytherapy, but the mean HR-CTV D90 values in patients with tumors > 4 cm were significantly higher for 3D-based plans than for 2D-based plans (96.0% vs. 78.1%; P = 0.017). Similar results were found for patients with tumors > 5 cm initially. Other dosimetric parameters for OARs were similar between 2D- and 3D-based plans, except that mean sigmoid D2cc was higher for 2D- than for 3D-based plans (67.5% vs. 58.8%; P = 0.043). Conclusion: These findings indicate that 3D-based ICR plans improve tumor coverage while satisfying the dose constraints for OARs. 3D-based ICR should be considered in patients with tumors > 4 cm size at the time of brachytherapy or > 5 cm initially.

정책 논단 : 법인세가 투자 및 GDP에 미치는 영향분석 -Structural VAR에 의한 Causality 분석-

하인봉 한국경제학회 2012 한국경제포럼 Vol.5 No.1

엔/원환율 변화가 주요 수출산업에 미치는 영향

하인봉 慶北大學校出版部 1998 經商論集 Vol.26 No.1

환율의 예측성

하인봉(Ha, In-Bong) 성곡언론문화재단 1989 성곡논총 Vol.20 No.-

보조금, 지방교부세 및 지역재정지출의 지역소득에 대한 대체 및 보완효과, 항상 및 임시효과 분석

河仁鳳,李咏桓 한국의정연구회 2014 의정논총 Vol.9 No.2

본 연구에서는 한국의 광역시·도의 지역의 소득에 대해 중앙정부의 재정지출(보조금 및, 지방교부세)과 지역재정지출이 미치는 영향 사이가 보완적인지 혹은 대체적인지, 혹은 이러한 영향이 영구적인 효과를 가지는지 혹은 임시적인 효과만 가지는지를 분석하였다. 분석결과 첫째, 중앙정부의 지방정부에 대한 재원이전의 목적이 지역소득 증대에 있다 면, 보조금이 지방교부세 보다 더 폭넓은 지역에 유의한 정책수단이 될 수 있었다. 그러나 그 효과는 모두 임시적이었다. 지역의 소득에 대해 중앙정부의 재정지출이 지역재정지출과 보완적인 관계를 가지며 지 역의 경제성장에 시너지효과를 주는 지역은 서울, 부산, 강원, 제주이었으며, 대체적 관계 를 가지는 지역은 경남, 전남이였다. 그 외 지역에서는 보완적이거나 대체적인 관계가 나타나지 않았다. There have been on-going debates regarding the efficiency of the local public finance since 1991 local autonomy in Korea. This paper attempts to examine how central government's and local government's finance affect the growth of local income, to examine whether central and local government's finance have cross complementary or cross substitutive effects on regional income, and to analyze whether their effect is permanent or temporal. Our results are coherent with previous empirical results: The two type spendings on most local regions increase local income, but there were some exceptions in our results. The empirical results also show that two types of government spendings have only temporary growth effects and have cross complementary or substitutive effects on regional income.