Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

기후변화가 농업부문에 미치는 경제적 영향 분석

김창길(Chang-Gil Kim),이상민(Sang-Min Lee) 한국농업경제학회 2009 農業經濟硏究 Vol.50 No.2

This paper measures economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Korea. Using cross-sectional data on climate, soil, farmland prices, and other economic and geophysical data, we employ a Ricardian approach to measure the relationship between climate and the farmland value. The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation. The empirical analysis reveals that a rise of 1℃ in the annual average temperature (12.4℃ ) brought down the price of farmland per ha by approximately KRW 14.5~19.2 million, equivalent to a 5.7~7.5% drop in the average farmland price. On the other hand, an increase of 1㎜ in the monthly average precipitation (110.8㎜) was estimated to increase the farmland price per ha by KRW 330~360 thousand. In general, the results show that the temperature component of global warming is much important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring and early warn-ing system of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change.

4분과 : 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무 임부의 재적 추정

김문일 ( Moon Il Kim ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ),( Gui Shan Gui ),( Hang Nan Yu ),최솔이 ( Sol E Choi ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),권태성 한국임학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.1

본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무림을 대상으로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 시나리오에 따른 임목 재적의 시·공간적 변이를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 전국 규모의 예측을 위해 5차임상도와 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후와 공간의 변이가 임목 생장에 미치는 영향을 반영하기 위해 기상 및 지형인자를 반영한 생장모형을 적용하였다. 모형의 검증을 위해 시, 도별 산림통계와 모형 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때, 소나무림의 임분 재적은 현재 131 m3/ha에서2050년에는 212.42 m3/ha까지 증가 할 것으로 예측되었으며, 현재의 기후가 유지될 경우에는 221.92 m3/ha까지 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 일부 고산지대를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 소나무림의 생장률이감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, 특히 해안지역과 남부지역에서 생장률의 감소가 클 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 소나무림 생장에 미치는 영향을 시·공간에 따라 정량화 할 수 있었으며, 이는 기후변화 적응을 고려한 산림관리 및 시업계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다. The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume basedon the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, 5th forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from 131 m3/ha at present to 212.42 m3/ha in the year of 2050. If the climate maintains as the present, volumeis predicted to increase to 221.92 m3/ha. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinusdensiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.

울형성 심부전증에서 심혈관계 보상기전의 지표로서 저나트륨혈증의 의의에 관한 연구

김경환,김미경,이우형,홍사석,신길자,장일중 대한내과학회 1986 대한내과학회지 Vol.31 No.3

In patient with congestive heart failure, it is well known that the sympatho-adrenal system and the renin angiotensin system are activated to compensate for the reduction of cardiac output and the redistribution of blood flow. Although Lilly, et al. (1984) and Francis, et al. (1985) have insisted that the induction of these circulatory compensation mechanism by pastura1 changes is closely related to the concentration of plama sodium in congestive heart failure, it is still controversial. Thus, in an effort to clarify this hypothesis, present study was designed to determine the relationship between the existing sodium concentration in plasma and the changes of the plasma catecholamine concentration and renin activity during postural alterations in patients with congestive heart fai1ure and normal subjects. Ten patients with congestive heart failure who had been admitted to the Ewha Womans University Hospital from May, 1985 to July, 1985 and five normal volunteers were chosen. Patients with more than one year history of congestive heart failure belonging to class 3 or 4 as the criteria set by the New York Heart Association have been selected for this study. Among these ten patients, 5(3 males and 2 females) had low plasma sodium concentration(below 135mEq/l) and 5(3 males and 2 females) had normal plasma sodium concentration(above 135mEq/l). The observed results are as follows: 1) In the normal subjects, the observed plasma renin activity was 1,2±0.4ng/ml/hr and the concentrations of norepinephrine and epinephrine were 177.5±27 and 150.0±8pg/ml, respectively, at supine position. However, these values were increased by about 2 times by changing to upright position. 2) In patients with hyponatremic congestive heart failure, the values of plasma renin activity and catecholamine levels were significantly higher than those patients having normonatremia. 3) The increase in the plasma renin activity and catecholamin levels induced by upright position were minimal in patients with congestive heart failure having normonatremia. 4) However, in patients with hyponatremic congestive heart failure, the plasma renin activity and the levels of plasma catecholamines were not altered, or rather decreased, by the same postural changes. Based on the results, the levels of plasma sodium concentration in patients with congestive heart failure could provide an index for the induction of circulatory compensation mechaniams and may have important significance in determining the severity and prognosis of the disease. Particularly in the congestive heart failure patients with hyponatremia, as the circulatory compensation mechanism appear to be operating at maximum already, they would not be able to utilize the reflex compensation mechanism inducible with the changes of body position.

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무와 참나무 임분의 탄소흡수량 추정

김문일 ( Moon Il Kim ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ),최솔이 ( Sol E Choi ),유동훈 ( Dong Hoon Ryu ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ) 한국임학회 2014 산림과학 공동학술대회 논문집 Vol.2014 No.-

본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무와 참나무를 대상으로 RCP 8.5 시나리오와 산림 생장모형, 제5차 임상도를 이용하여 2020년에서 2050년까지의 미래 탄소 흡수량 변화를 예측하고, 이에 따라 두 수종의 미래 탄소 흡수량의 감소가 나타나는 취약 지역을 예측하기 위하여 수행되었다. 시 도별 산림통계와 모형의 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 이에 본 모형을 이용하여 추정한 탄소 흡수량은 현재와 기후가 같다고 가정하였을 때, 2050년 소나무 4.01(std. 1.42), 참나무는 4.38 tCO2/ha/year(std. 1.42)으로 2020년과 비교하여 각각 18.7%, 27.6% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때에는 2050년 소나무 3.00(std. 2.42), 참나무가 5.82(std. 2.51) tCO2/ha/year으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통하여 소나무와 참나무의 탄소 흡수량 변화를 추정할 수 있었으며, 이를 이용하여 미래 탄소 흡수 기능 취약지역을 분석 할 수 있었다. 이는 향후, 기후변화 적응을 위한 산림 분야의 정책 및 산림 관리 계획에 있어 기초 자료로서 활용될 수 있을 것이다. The purpose of this study was to predict of the carbon sequestration about Quercus spp. and P.densiflora 2020 to 2050 and vulnerable area such as decrease carbon sequestration by using RCP 8.5 scenarios and forest growth model, 5th forest type map. The comparison result between the province forest statistic data and predict data which is data from growth model showed a high suitability. The carbon sequestration was estimated using by two assumption. one of the result, which was assumed the future climate same current climate was appeared P.densiflora 4.01 (std. 1.42), Quercus spp. 4.38tCO2/ha (std. 1.42) in 2050. Each result decrease 18.7, 27.6 percent compared with 2020. another result, which is assumed the climate change in the future was appeared P. densiflora 3.00 (std. 2.42), Quercus spp. 5.82 (std. 2.51) tCO2/ha. Through this study we predicted not only carbon sequestration change but also, the vulnerable area about carbon sequestration function. The result of the study can be useful for the adaptation policy and forest management of climate change.

개 이자의 Somatostatin 양성세포의 발달에 관한 면역조직화학적 연구

장인엽,윤상필,정윤영,김종중,문정석,한길현,김영택,안계훈,선희매 조선대학교 부설 의학연구소 1998 The Medical Journal of Chosun University Vol.23 No.2

Cells immnunoreactive for somatostatin(SOM) and glucagon(GLU) were investigated in postnatal day 0, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180 and adult canine pancreas using light microscopic immunohistochemistry. Pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were found in pancreatic acini, pancreatic duct, and pancreatic islet gradually. Pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were more located in pancreatic parenchyme than pancreatic islet throughout pancreas by postnatal day 28. But there was change by the postnatal 3 months : pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were more located in pancreatic islet than acini and duct. It is suggested that the number of the SOM-immunoreactive cells may not increase with age apparently. A small number of SOM-immunoreactive cells that showed GLU-immunoreactivity were also observed in canine pancreatic islet. The physiologic consequences of these changes remain to be determined. These results sugegest that SOM in the developing pancreas may relate to the secretion of pancreatic hormones.

한국 남동해역 시질퇴적물의 물리적 성질

김길영(Gil Young KIM),김대철(Dae Choul KIM),박수철(Soo Chul PARK),유동근(Dong Geun YOO),최진혁(Jin Hyuk CHOI),김정창(Jeong Chang KIM) 한국수산과학회 1996 한국수산과학회지 Vol.29 No.5

Physical properties and textural parameters of thirty-five piston core samples recovered from the southeastern coast of Korea (Korea Strait), were investigated using the autopycnometer. The physical properties (porosity, water content, wet bulk density, dry bulk density, grain density, and void ratio) were measured at rather uniform intervals along each core. Sediment texture (grain size, sand, silt, and clay contents) was also measured at the same subbottom depth. The measured and calculated results are; mean grain size 0.57∼8.09 Φ (average: 3.67 Φ), porosity 26∼81% (average: 55%), water content 16.7∼61.4% (average: 31.6%, wet bulk density 1.37∼2.18 g/㎤ (average: 1.85 g/㎤), dry bulk density 2.55∼3.11 g/㎤ (average: 2.35 g/㎤), grain density 2.40∼3.10 g/㎤ (average: 2.85 g/㎤), and void ratio 0.56∼2.54 (average: 0.94). The sediment texture generally coincides well with the bathymetry indicating the influence of Pleistocene-Holocene sea level changes. Also the contours of physical properties are closely related to the sediment texture. Fluctuation of physical properties are similar to the textural variation. It seems that sediment texture is a significant factor in determining physical property in this study area.

Para-Chlorophenylalanine이 흰쥐 췌장 외분비부분 샘포세포에 미치는 영향에 대한광학 및 전자현미경적 연구

김인구,정영길,최창도,최월봉 대한해부학회 1994 Anatomy & Cell Biology Vol.27 No.3

Trithioformaldehyde(TTFA)가 백서에서 사염화탄소 투여에 의한 간 손상에 미치는 영향에 대한 형태학적 연구

강병길,김창진,강상균 순천향대학교 1992 논문집 Vol.15 No.2

Carbon tetrachloride is not only toxic to the liver causing centrilobular necrosis and fatty change, but also harmful to the kidney, the lung and the nervous system. It causes hepatic injury constantly regredless of the routes of administration, so that it is used in the animal model of toxic hepatic injury. It is metabolized by microsomal enzyme, cytochrome p-450, to produce trichloromethyl and monoatomic free radicals, which have toxic effects on cell membrane and cytoplasmic organelles. Their toxic effects can be lessened by antioxidant vitamin E or methionine and glutathione Trithioformaldehyde(TTFA) is a synthetic cyclic aliphatic compound containing three sulfur atoms. This study is done to evaluate the protective effects of TTFA on the hepatic injury caused with carbon tetrachloride by light and electron microscopic examination. The results are as follows. 1. TTFA administration increased SGPT and SGOP compared to the control group. 2. Pretreatment of TTFa before carbon tetrachloride administration decreased SGOT and SGPT compared to the carbon tetrachloride alone administration. 3. TTFA administration brought slightly irregular hepatic cell cords light microscopically and dilattion of RER and mitochondria electron microscopically. 4. Carbon tetrachloride administration brought extensive severe centrilobular hepatic necrosis and fatty change light and electron microscopically. 5. Pretreatment of TTFA before carbon tetrachloride administration brought centrilbular necrosis but the fatty change was minimal compared to carbon tetrachloride alone administration. Electron microscopically, the cell necrosis and degeneration were also in lesser degree compared to the carbon tetrachloride alone administration. The above results suggest that TTFA might lessen the hepato-toxic effects of carbon tetrachloride, but further studies are needed to elucidate it.

냉기 치료에 따른 둔근에서의 피부 및 근육내 온도 변화

정우성,김미정,박시복,이상건,김영호,양길태,장윤희 大韓再活醫學會 1998 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.22 No.2