Gender Differences in Cognitive Decline in Korea: Age Changes and Cohort Differences

YUJIN KIM 서울대학교 사회발전연구소 2020 Journal of Asian Sociology Vol.49 No.1

To assess socio-cultural and gender differences in cognitive aging in Korea, I separated age and cohort effects on cognitive aging and examined gender differences in aging trajectories of cognitive function across birth cohorts. I applied growth curve models to nationally representative longitudinal data from Korea that spanned 10 years (N=5,270; 31,620 person years). The main findings are 1) cognitive aging is not only an age but also a cohort-related phenomenon (significant cohort differences found in both the levels and the rate of cognitive aging); 2) gender gaps in cognitive aging vary across birth cohorts, with smaller gender gaps in cognitive aging among recent cohorts; 3) individual socioeconomic and health status explain some cohort and gender effects on cognitive aging, but significant effects still exist when these elements are controlled for. These findings provide important policy implications for predicting the future social and economic burdens of cognitive aging-related diseases.

임금과 일자리 기회의 코호트 간 차이에 관한 연구

정준호,전병유,장지연 한국사회과학연구회 2021 동향과 전망 Vol.- No.112

The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the effect of generation( birth cohort) on the gap and inequality in wages and jobs. Using wage data for the past 30 years, it was analyzed whether the independent cohort effect (gap between cohorts), which is distinguished from the age and period effect in wages and jobs, exists significantly. The main methodology used in this paper is Chauvel's (2013) APCD (Age-Period-Cohort Detrended), which estimates the degree of deviation from the trend as an independent effect of the cohort (age, period). As a result of the analysis, the more recent cohorts, the higher the absolute wage level, but in the effect of more than the trend, that is, the relative cohort effect were found to be larger in the cohorts in the 1960s, and lower in the 1970s cohort. The advantage of the 1950s cohort was the effect of economic growth, and the advantage of he 1950s cohort was due to the expansion of educational opportunities, while the disadvantage of the cohort in the 1970s was attributed to the period effects of the 1997 financial crisis and the structural effects of the labor market dualization. The 1959-63 cohort was also found to be advantageous in the opportunities to occupy the top 20% of jobs. However, when education was controlled, the 1954-58 cohort was advantageous, and the 1970s cohort was unfavorable. Even in the top jobs, the 1959-68 cohort is believed to be the beneficiary of expanding educational opportunities. However, in lower-ranking jobs, the difference between the cohort in the 1960s and the cohort in the 1970s was not as large as the difference in the higher-level jobs. In the APCD analysis of the wage inequality index, it was found that inequality was the lowest in the 1959-63 cohort, while the inequality was high in the cohort after the 1970s. 본 연구의 목적은 임금과 일자리에서의 격차와 불평등에서 세대(출생 코호트) 효과를 실증적으로 검증해보는 것이다. 지난 30여년 간의 임금 자료를 활용하여, 임금과 일자리에서 연령과 시기 효과와 구분되는 독자적인 코호트 효과(코호트 간격차)가 유의미하게 존재하는지를 분석하였다. 방법론은 추세에서의 이탈 정도를코호트(연령, 시기)의 독자적인 효과로 추정하는 쇼벨(Chauvel, 2013)의APCD(Age-Period-Cohort Detrended) 방법론을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 최근코호트일수록, 절대 임금 수준은 높지만, 추세 이상의 효과 즉 상대적 코호트 효과가 1960년대 출생 코호트에서 가장 큰 것으로 나타났고 1970년대 출생 코호트에서 상대적으로 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 1950년대 코호트의 상대적 유리함은 경제성장의 효과가, 1960년대 코호트의 상대적 유리함은 교육 기회 확대에 기인한다면, 1970년대 코호트의 상대적 불리함은 외환위기 이후의 시기 효과와 노동시장의 구조적 효과가 작용한 것으로 판단된다. 임금 수준 기준의 상위 20% 일자리 점유 기회에서도, 1959-1663년 출생 코호트가 유리한 것으로 나타났다. 다만 교육을 통제할 경우 1954-1958년 출생 코호트가 유리한 것으로, 1970년대 출생 코호트는 불리한 것으로 나타났다. 상위 일자리 점유 기회에서도 1959-1968년 출생 코호트는 교육 기회 확대의 수혜자인 것으로 판단된다. 다만, 하위 일자리에서는 1960년대 코호트와 1970년대 코호트 사이의 차이가 상위 일자리 점유 기회에서의 차이만큼 크지는 않았다. 임금 불평등 지수에 대한 APCD 분석에서는, 1959-1963년 출생 코호트에서 코호트 내 불평등 정도가 가장 낮은 반면, 1970 년대 이후 코호트에서 코호트 내 불평등 정도가 높은 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

연령, 시점, 세대 효과가 주택담보대출자의 소비에 미치는 영향

최성호(Seong Ho Choi),허윤경(Youn Kyoung Hur) 한국주택학회 2016 주택연구 Vol.24 No.1

본 연구는 차주단위 주택담보대출 자료를 기반으로 연령, 시점, 세대 모형을 구축하고 소비에 미치는 개별 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 연령, 시점, 세대간 존재하는 완벽한 선형관계를 다루기 위하여, APC-IE모형을 실증분석 모형으로 선택하였다. 주요 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 소비에 미치는 세대 효과의 존재를 통계적으로 확인하였다. 이는 주택가격, 소득 등 통제변수를 포함한 상황에서 연령, 시점, 세대효과를 동시에 결정하였다는 점에서 의미를 가진다. 세대 효과는 연령 효과와 달리 소득과 주택가격 등 주택가격 등 통제 변수에 영향을 적게 받는다. 추정된 세대 효과의 계수값은 최근 탄생한 세대로 올수록 줄어들고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 둘째, 연령 효과가 세대 및 시점 효과보다 크게 나타났다. 따라서 고령화 사회에 진입하면서 주택담보대출자의 소비는 연령 효과에 의해 크게 영향을 받을 것으로 판단된다. 셋째, 최근의 베이비부머의 소비 감소 우려가 크며 이는 연령 증가에 기인하는 바가 크다. 따라서 향후 경제 성장(시점 효과)이 고령화 사회의 부정적인 효과를 충분히 상쇄시키지 않는 한, 전반적인 소비 감소는 경제전반에 상당한 파급효과를 지닐 것으로 판단된다. This paper aims to analyze age, period, and cohort effects on mortgage borrower's consumption. Although great attention has been shown to the question of age, period, and cohort effects on mortgage market, the perfect multicollinearity between age, period, and cohort factors disturbs a comprehensive understanding of age, period, and cohort effects on mortgage market. Base on mortgage borrower's data over the period 2008-2014, an age-period-cohort intrinsic estimator (APC-IE) is implemented. The empirical results are as followings. First, age, period, and cohort effects on consumption is simultaneously identified with statistical significance, and coefficients of recent generation's cohort effect are smaller than the previous generation's. This statistical result is interpreted as that recent generation has lower propensity of consumption than the previous generation. Second, both cohort and period effects on consumption are less sensitive than age effect, while the model consists of additional independent variables, such as income, housing price, and borrower's social and financial status. This represents that age effect is a more important factor than period and cohort to forecast mortgage borrower's consumption at aging society. Third, baby boomer's consumption is expected to decrease, mainly due to the age and cohort effects. The results suggest that the aging process could lead to the decreasing consumption of mortgage borrower, unless economic growth is not sufficient to mitigate negative effects on aging process.

인구고령화가 의료비 지출에 미치는 영향: Age-Period-Cohort 분석을 이용한 ‘건강한 고령화’의 관점

조재영,정형선 한국보건행정학회 2018 보건행정학회지 Vol.28 No.4

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show ‘healthy ageing’ phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%–1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, ‘healthy ageing effect’ suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

우리나라 가계저축에 대한 코호트분석

윤종인 ( Jong In Yoon ) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정공공경제학회) 2016 재정학연구 Vol.9 No.3

본 연구는 연령효과, 코호트효과, 시간효과에 초점을 맞추어 최근 25년 동안 우리나라 가계저축률을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 가계동향조사의 미시자료를 이용하였고 기본방법론으로 코호트분석을 적용하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째 소득의 연령별 프로파일은 낙타등모양이었고, 저축률의 연령별 프로파일은 M자형이었다. 저축률의 M자형 프로파일은 부양비, 특히 40대에 집중되었던 교육비 때문이었던 것으로 보인다. 둘째 1955~1975년생의 소득은 이전 세대보다 많은 편이었지만 1976년생 이후 세대의 소득은 비슷하였다. 한편 1940~1964년생의 저축률은 높은 것으로 나타났지만 1965년생 이후 세대의 저축률은 높지 않았다. 셋째 시간효과를 보면, 1991~1994년의 저축률은 높았지만 1997년 이후의 저축률은 낮았다. 따라서 최근 25년간의 저축률 하락은 외환위기 이후 모든 코호트에서 나타난 저축률 하락과 1965년생 이후 세대의 저축률 하락이라는 두 가지 현상이 작용한 결과로 판단된다. This research is to review basic facts on Korean saving rate in the recent twenty five years, and analyze the determining factors behind its trend. We use the micro-data(MDSS) from Household Income and Expenditure Survey from 1990 to 2014 and apply the cohort analysis of Deaton(1985). We tries to characterize the life-cycle pattern of household income, consumption, and saving on a cohort-by-cohort basis. To test the existence of cohort effect and time effect, we test the cohort effect and regress saving/consumption on several variables. Evidences say some results. First, age-profiles of income and consumption had similarly hump-shaped. and income and consumption reached their peak at an earlier path of their lifetime, compared with those of the seniors. Second, age-profiles of saving rates of all cohorts were M-shaped and shifted to the left during the sample period. The dependency ratio was an important factor in determining saving, but the M-shaped age-profiles of saving rates can be explained mainly by large education expenditures during 40s. Third, cohort effect and time effect were all important. Saving rates of cohorts born in 1940~1974 were higher than those of cohorts born before 1940, but saving rates of cohorts born after 1975 were not. And saving rates of all cohorts in 1991~1997 were higher than those of all cohorts after 1998. So we conclude that decreases in saving rates in the recent twenty five years are a mixed phenomenon of a universal downward change across all cohorts and downward changes of younger generations.

The unrealized potential:

Jongho Heo,Sun-Young Jeon,Chang-Mo Oh,Jongnam Hwang,Juhwan Oh,Youngtae Cho 한국역학회 2017 Epidemiology and Health Vol.39 No.-

This study aims to provide a systematical introduction of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to South Korean readers who are unfamiliar with this method (we provide an extended version of this study in Korean). As health data in South Korea has substantially accumulated, population-level studies that explore long-term trends of health status and health inequalities and identify macrosocial determinants of the trends are needed. Analyzing long-term trends requires to discern independent effects of age, period, and cohort using APC analysis. Most existing health and aging literature have used cross-sectional or short-term available panel data to identify age or period effects ignoring cohort effects. This under-use of APC analysis may be attributed to the identification (ID) problem caused by the perfect linear dependency across age, period, and cohort. This study explores recently developed three APC models to address the ID problem and adequately estimate the effects of A-P-C: intrinsic estimator-APC models for tabular age by period data; hierarchical cross-classified random effects models for repeated cross-sectional data; and hierarchical APC-growth curve models for accelerated longitudinal panel data. An analytic exemplar for each model was provided. APC analysis may contribute to identifying biological, historical, and socioeconomic determinants in long-term trends of health status and health inequalities as well as examining Korean’s aging trajectories and temporal trends of period and cohort effects. For designing effective health policies that improve Korean population’s health and reduce health inequalities, it is essential to understand independent effects of the three temporal factors by using the innovative APC models.

시계열 데이터 분석을 통한 연령효과, 시기효과, 코호트효과의 비교 분석 - 기업의 사회공헌에 대한 소비자 인식 변화를 중심으로

이혜원 ( Lee Hyewon ),김난도 ( Kim Rando ) 한국소비자학회 2021 소비자학연구 Vol.32 No.1

본 연구는 트렌드를 구성하는 세대 연구에서, 연령효과, 시기효과, 코호트효과를 구분하여 각각이 어떻게 영향력을 미치는지, 또 그 영향력의 차이는 어떠한지에 대한 실증적인 탐구를 수행하고자 했다. 이를 위해 반복된 횡단면 데이터인 한국방송광고진흥공사의 소비자행태조사를 이용하여 ‘사회공헌을 많이 하는 기업일수록 좋은 기업이라고 생각한다’는 문항에 대한 분석을 실시했다. 먼저 탐색적으로 분석한 결과, 사회공헌에 대한 소비자의 긍정적 인식에서 연령별, 시기별, 코호트별 평균값 차이를 발견하였다. 특히 Z코호트는 다른 코호트와는 달리 시기가 증가함에 따라 사회공헌 활동과 기업의 긍정적 이미지의 연관성을 높게 평가하였다. 다음으로 연령효과, 시기효과, 코호트효과의 상대적 영향력을 구분하기 위해, 연령을 1-수준의 변수로, 시기와 코호트를 2-수준의 변수로 설정해 위계적 교차분류임의효과모형을 분석한 결과, 연령효과와 코호트효과는 정의 효과를 갖고, 시기효과는 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 또한 연령효과와 시기효과의 상호작용, 그리고 연령효과와 코호트효과의 상호작용은 부의 효과를 가졌다. 특히 전체 데이터에서는 상관관계가 높게 나타난 연령과 코호트라는 두 변수를 수준을 다르게 두어 교차 분석하였더니 서로 반대의 효과가 있음이 도출되었다. 이에 본 연구는 연령효과와 시기효과, 코호트효과는 구분하여 측정할 수 있는 서로 다른 효과이며, 사회공헌에 대한 소비자의 긍정적 인식에 미치는 영향의 크기도 다르고, 그 영향의 방향도 다를 수 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 다층모형의 방법론을 적용해 연구를 수행하였다는 점에서, 향후 다양한 시계열 데이터의 활용과 소비자 행태 연구에서의 동태적 접근의 가능성을 제시하였다. This study is an empirical exploration of how age effect, period effect, and cohort effect influence the trend in generation studies, and what the differences of each aspect impact to the consequences. The questionnaire of “Thought of companies that make more social responsibility activities is a better company” in the Consumer Behavior Survey of the Korean Broadcast Advertising Corporation, which is the repeated cross-sectional data, was used to analyze in this study. First, an exploratory data analysis found the difference in the average value of consumers' positive perception of social responsibility activities by age, period, and cohort. Contrary to other cohorts, Z cohorts, in particular, present that consumers recently tend to evaluate companies more positively when companies engaged more in social contribution activities. Next, to distinguish the relative influence of age effects, period effects and cohort effects, the hierarchical APC cross-classified random effect model (HAPC-CCREM) was analyzed by setting age as a 1-level variable and period and cohort as a 2-level variable. The age effect and cohort effect had positive static effects, but the period effect was not statistically significant. In addition, the interaction effect between the age and the cohort had a negative effect, as well as the interaction effect between the age and the period. particularly, cross-analysis of two variables, age and cohort, which are highly correlated, resulted in contrary effects. Therefore, this study indicates that the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect are different effects, and each of the effects can be measured separately. Each of the effects shows the different results on the size of the impact on consumer perception toward companies’ social responsibility activities and the direction of the impact. Furthermore, the study suggests the possibility of dynamic approaches in the study of consumer behavior and utilizing various time series data in the future by conducting and applying the methodology of the multi-level model in this research.

세대별로 투표하는 정당이나 후보는 달라지는가?

최슬기,이윤석,김석호 고려대학교 한국사회연구소 2019 한국사회 Vol.20 No.2

The study examines generational differences in political attitude and behavior such as vote choice and party identification in Korea. It simultaneously analyzes the effects of age, period, and cohort on political attitude and behavior. In particular, this study tries to identify distinctive cohort effects and examines, if they exist, how they vary. This study employs a systematic APC (Age-Period-Cohort) analysis to discern the independent effect of age, period, and cohort using KGSS (Korean General Social Survey) data, the classic repeated cross-sectional data in Korea. The results show distinct cohort effects on political behavior in six national elections from 2010 to 2018. The cohort effects are statistically significant even after controlling social class and region variables and distinguished from both period and age effects. We note that generational characteristics distinguished from a general notion known as “the older you get, the more conservative you become” are statistically significant by applying APC models. The results exhibit that a cohort born before 1964 tends to be conservative which aligns with the correlation of aging and conservatism. In addition, The probability of a 1960-1964 cohort making electoral choices for conservative parties rises after controlling age effects and period effects whereas a 1965-84 cohort do not exhibit political conservatism, with strong statistical significance in 1965-69 cohort and 1970-74. Meanwhile, a 1985-1994 cohort shows quite a strong political conservatism. Additionally, the probability of a 1990-1994 cohort making electoral choices towards conservative parties rises after controlling age effects and period effects which suggests that they can be as conservative as a 1940. 이 논문은 지지 후보/정당으로 드러난 한국 사회의 세대 간 정치행태 차이를 분석한다. 특히 기간효과와 연령효과를 구분해 세대만의 독자적인 특성이 있는지, 특성이 있다면 세대별로 어떻게 다르게 나타나는지를 분석해보고자 한다. 정치 태도와 행위에 대한 연령효과, 기간효과, 세대효과의 존재를 확인하기 위하여 이 논문은 APC(Age-Period-Cohort) 분석을 활용할 것이다. APC 모형은 분석 가능한 자료만 존재한다면 세대와 연령의 차별적 효과를 드러내는 데 적합하다. 이 연구에서는 국내 대표적인 반복횡단면 조사인 한국종합사회조사(Korean General Social Survey)를 분석 자료로 사용하였다. 분석결과, 지난 2010년부터 2018년까지 분석에서 사용된 여섯번의 전국선거에서 드러난 세대간 정치행태를 분석한 결과 세대간 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 세대 차이는 계층과 지역을 통제한 이후에도 존재하며, 기간효과와 연령효과와도 구분된 독자적인 특성을 지녔다. 또한 나이가 들면서 보수 화되는 일반적 경향과는 구분된 세대별 특성도 나타났다. 이러한 세대 특성은 HAPC 분석모형을 통해 통계적으로도 유의미하게 다름이 확인되었다. 구체적으로 1964년생 이전세대는 보수성향을 보였다. 특히 나이든 고령의 세대일수록 보수성향이 더 강함이 드러났다. 특히 386세대 전반기에 해당하는 1960~64년생은 연령효과와 기간효과를 통제한 후에는 보수 후보를 지지할 확률이 높았다. 반면 1965~84년생은 비보수 블록을 형성하고 있는데, 특히 1970~74년생과 1965~69년생이 가장 비보수적인 정치 행태를 보였다. 진보블럭에 이어, 1985~94년생에게서는 다시 보수성이 강화된 특성이 나타났다. 특히 1990~1994년생은 연령효과와 기간효과를 통제하고 나면, 1940년대생에 필적할만큼 강한 보수성이 나타났다.

Age-period-cohort analysis of smoking prevalence among young adults in Korea

지용호,조성일 한국역학회 2016 Epidemiology and Health Vol.38 No.-

OBJECTIVES: Smoking prevalence among Korean men in their thirties is substantially high (approximately 50%). An in-depth analysis of smoking trends among young adults in their twenties is necessary to devise antismoking policies for the next 10 years. This study aimed to identify the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort effects on smoking prevalence in young adults. METHODS: Subjects comprised 181,136 adults (83,947 men: 46.3%; 97,189 women: 53.7%) aged 19 to 30 years from the 2008-2013 Korea Community Health Survey. Smoking prevalence adjusted with reference to the 2008 population was applied to the age-period-cohort (APC) model to identify the independent effects of each factor. RESULTS: For men, smoking prevalence rapidly escalated among subjects aged 19 to 22 years and slowed down among those aged 23 to 30 years, declined during 2008 to 2010 but stabilized during 2011 to 2013, and declined in birth cohorts prior to 1988 but stabilized in subjects born after 1988. However, in APC models, smoking prevalence increased with age in the 1988 to 1991 birth cohort. In this birth cohort, smoking prevalence at age 19 to 20 years was approximately 24% but increased to 40% when the subjects turned 23 to 24 years. For women, smoking prevalence was too low to generate consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past six years and in recent birth cohorts, smoking prevalence in adults aged 19 to 30 years has declined and is stable. Smoking prevalence should be more closely followed as it remains susceptible to an increase depending on antismoking policies or social conditions.

Age-period-cohort analysis of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis prevalence in Japan

Tasuku Okui 환경독성보건학회 2020 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.35 No.3

This study aims to analyze the trends in the Japanese prevalence of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis by using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Data regarding the prevalence of diseases from 1999 to 2017 were collected from Patient Survey in Japan. The data were divided according to age groups ranging from 0-4 years old up to 65-69 years old in 5-year increments. A cohort was defined for each age group of each year with a one-year shift, and cohorts born from 1930-1934 up to 2013-2017 were examined. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in prevalence into age, period, and cohort effects. Results show that the period effect for asthma began to increase in 2008, and those of allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis began to increase in 1999. The cohort effects for asthma and atopic dermatitis increased rapidly in cohorts born from approximately 1950 to 1980 and then decreased thereafter. Furthermore, the cohort effect for allergic rhinitis increased from cohorts born in approximately the late 1970s for men and in 1990 for women. The time points with increasing cohort effects for asthma and atopic dermatitis are consistent with the history of air pollution accompanied by rapid economic growth in Japan. The onset of the increased cohort effect for allergic rhinitis was also relatively consistent with the time point at which the mass scattering of pollen began.